COVID-19

[PerthDomer]

Cuomo press conference today on a new antibody study. 27% of NYC. 34% of the Bronx. Some neighborhoods as high as 43%.

I’m stunned that this type of data is not influencing reopening but relying on data from February is

The study had NYC as a whole 19.9% pos. At risk minority church checks at 27% w the worst 44%. Explains some of the minority death toll but again as a whole even NYC is only 1/3 of the way to herd immunity..

 

[yankeehater]

I didn't actually look at all his twitter posts, I just assumed that he used the word "devastating" to mean, devastating to the talking points of those in favor of lockdowns. Didn't know which side of the fence this guy was on.

If you look at the responses to his tweet, half of the people are questioning what he meant by "devastating" and the other half are questioning JP Morgan's motives to the study. I guess that is the world we live in even regarding a pandemic.

 

[Legacy]

Originally Posted by PerthDomer View Post
What the study (Santa Clara) proves is that if you have low prevalence of disease a test with even good specificity is crap. The raw prevalence was 1.5%. They then decided the data was skewed by where and whom responses came from, so they mathed their way to higher numbers. Additionally the study drew from volunteers, likely people concerned they may have been infected. To top that off, the test makers estimate 98.3 to 100% specificity. If their test were 99% specific over half the positives would be expected to be false positives.

Santa Clara is also part of the epicenter of cases in norcal. They're #4 in case number for all counties in California. So yea, outside of NYC NOLA etc. I'd expect few places to have their number of cases.

In response:

This is also a really good demonstration of the difficulty we're going to face of using the antibody testing to determine who can go back to work.

Suppose you gave a typical person the following hypothetical: "I have an antibody test that has 99% specificity and 100% sensitivity. At this point, we have good evidence the true prevalence of this disease is 1%. I've tested 10,000 people and you were one of the positives. How likely are you to actually have protective antibodies?"

Most people would answer "99%." That answer is very understandable -- when the test comes back positive, it is correct 99 times out of 100. The answer is also wrong.

If you test 10,000 people among whom the disease has a 1% prevalence, you will generate 100 true positives -- that is people who test positive and actually have the disease. Unfortunately, given the 99% specificity, you will also generate 100 false positives -- people who test positive but have no COVID-19 antibodies. So if you are an individual among those 10,000 and you have just been handed a positive result, it's actually even odds that you are not in fact protected from the disease at all (i.e. 100 people in the sample have a positive test and have protective antibodies and 100 people in the sample have a positive test and have no protective antibodies).

This is the reason we use confirmatory screening, but the cause of the false positive must not be replicated by the confirmatory screening or it's of no value. It will take time to get the testing correct even when we have tools that we are reasonably confident have high specificity and high sensitivity. But that will require both patience and sufficient faith in the public health community to believe that 99% specificity alone isn't something you ought to bet your health on.

Last I am aware, Florida, for instance, had not done much antibody testing to determine the prevalence of COVID-19, let alone any confirmatory screening to determine immunity. As Perth said, even NYC with more widespread antibody testing is only 1/3 the way to herd immunity.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Boom goes the dynamite.

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/neontaster/status/1263174542593327109[/TWEET]

 

[NDRock]

Boom goes the dynamite.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Good stuff from DeSantis here. <a href="https://t.co/ESvo6Pb1uw">pic.twitter.com/ESvo6Pb1uw</a></p>— neontaster (@neontaster) <a href="https://twitter.com/neontaster/status/1263174542593327109?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 20, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I feel like the whole world has turned into Stephen A Smith. Does everything have to be loud, antagonizing, and confrontational? God, I’m getting old.

 

[Legacy]

See below for NY's IgG antibody testing

The NYSDOH Wadsworth Center’s
Assay for SARS-CoV-2 IgG

The Wadsworth Center (WC), the public health laboratory of the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH),
has developed an antibody test for the virus that causes Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) disease. Below are several
questions and answers that will address concerns you may have. (cont)

Also, NY's criteria for who can be tested:

Can I Be Tested?
As New York State aggressively expands COVID-19 diagnostic testing capacity, the Department of Health has revised guidance to increase testing for frontline workers, including all first responders, health care workers, and essential employees who interact with the public, while continuing to prioritize resources. Testing for COVID-19 shall be authorized by a health care provider for individuals who meet one or more of the following criteria:

- An individual is symptomatic or has a history of symptoms of COVID-19 (e.g. fever, cough, and/or trouble breathing), particularly if the individual is 70 years of age or older, the individual has a compromised immune system, or the individual has an underlying health condition; or
- An individual has had close (i.e. within six feet) or proximate contact with a person known to be positive with COVID-19; or
- An individual is subject to a precautionary or mandatory quarantine; or
- An individual is employed as a health care worker, first responder, or other essential worker who directly interacts with the public while working; or
- An individual presents with a case where the facts and circumstances – as determined by the treating clinician in consultation with state or local department of health officials – warrant testing; or
- An individual is included under other criteria set by the NYS Dept. of Health based on an individual's geographic place of residence, occupation, or other factors that the Department may deem relevant for COVID-19 testing purposes; or
- Any individual who would return to workplace in Phase 1 .

 

[NorthDakota]

I feel like the whole world has turned into Stephen A Smith. Does everything have to be loud, antagonizing, and confrontational? God, I’m getting old.

With all the shit the media said about Florida they deserve to be dunked on, meanwhile they still run cover for Cuomo lol.

Thoroughly enjoying how the country has not turned into NYC, it's too bad the media can't also be happy about that. Must suck working in a profession that relies on bad news.

 

[Circa]

.

 

[Circa]

I feel like the whole world has turned into Stephen A Smith. Does everything have to be loud, antagonizing, and confrontational? God, I’m getting old.

IDK If your young or old. He's screaming at an emotional subject. I don't agree or disagree, at this time.

 

[NDRock]

With all the shit the media said about Florida they deserve to be dunked on, meanwhile they still run cover for Cuomo lol.

Thoroughly enjoying how the country has not turned into NYC, it's too bad the media can't also be happy about that. Must suck working in a profession that relies on bad news.

Aren't you going to be a lawyer? I kid.

When you're a public figure you're going to get criticized. That's life and it comes with the territory. The whole "clap back" mindset for our leaders seems petty and juvenile. I guess it works and people like when their team "destroys" the other side. I'd prefer they act like leaders instead though I realize I'm probably in the minority.

 

[NorthDakota]

Aren't you going to be a lawyer? I kid.

When you're a public figure you're going to get criticized. That's life and it comes with the territory. The whole "clap back" mindset for our leaders seems petty and juvenile. I guess it works and people like when their team "destroys" the other side. I'd prefer they act like leaders instead though I realize I'm probably in the minority.

Touche my man...touche.

 

[ACamp1900]

I feel like the whole world has turned into Stephen A Smith. Does everything have to be loud, antagonizing, and confrontational? God, I’m getting old.

With ya

 

[Irish YJ]

Aren't you going to be a lawyer? I kid.

When you're a public figure you're going to get criticized. That's life and it comes with the territory. The whole "clap back" mindset for our leaders seems petty and juvenile. I guess it works and people like when their team "destroys" the other side. I'd prefer they act like leaders instead though I realize I'm probably in the minority.

Sorry, but most media has become almost purely political. Journalism is dead. Journalist are supposed to be a check on power, and instead they've become part of the power.

And with nobody to "check" them, it's inevitable and natural to see the "clap back", as they are simply running awry. You criticize the antagonizing and confrontational tone of those clapping back, but what about the constant antagonizing and confrontation tone of the media?

I'd prefer everybody act like grownups, but it takes two to tango.

 

[NDRock]

Sorry, but most media has become almost purely political. Journalism is dead. Journalist are supposed to be a check on power, and instead they've become part of the power.

And with nobody to "check" them, it's inevitable and natural to see the "clap back", as they are simply running awry. You criticize the antagonizing and confrontational tone of those clapping back, but what about the constant antagonizing and confrontation tone of the media?

I'd prefer everybody act like grownups, but it takes two to tango.

Like I tell my kids, you're not in control how others act but you can control how you respond.

 

[Irish YJ]

Like I tell my kids, you're not in control how others act but you can control how you respond.

That's not a good analogy....

But if you're kid mouths off to you, you punish your kid, right? Or do you simply ignore it?

 

[NDRock]

That's not a good analogy....

But if you're kid mouths off to you, you punish your kid, right? Or do you simply ignore it?

Obviously a parent/child dynamic is nothing like a politician/media member. It's fine. I'm clearly in the minority as every sports and news show is filled with people yelling and every time a politician "owns" somebody people seem to like it.

 

[Irish YJ]

Obviously a parent/child dynamic is nothing like a politician/media member. It's fine. I'm clearly in the minority as every sports and news show is filled with people yelling and every time a politician "owns" somebody people seem to like it.

A child/child dynamic is nothing like a politician/media dynamic either. At least it should not be. A parent is suppose to be a "check" on a child's behavior, while media is supposed to be a "check" on power/politicians. Media is no longer the responsible parent. It's become a "bad mom".....

By the way, I strongly dislike S.A. Smith. And I strongly dislike what the media has turned into. I prefer not to see anyone get owned, but media has made a strong case to be owned. They spend every minute of every day trying to own politicians.

 

[Irish#1]

I feel like the whole world has turned into Stephen A Smith. Does everything have to be loud, antagonizing, and confrontational? God, I’m getting old.

IMO, it's very simple. The screamers and yellers have been screaming and yelling for a long time to crusade their cause. Those on the other end have grown tired of having something shoved down their throats and are deciding to counter.

 

[ulukinatme]

By the way, I strongly dislike S.A. Smith. And I strongly dislike what the media has turned into. I prefer not to see anyone get owned, but media has made a strong case to be owned. They spend every minute of every day trying to own politicians.

Stephen A. Smith? Can't stand him. Cracks me up anytime he has egg on his face, like that little incident a few years ago when he totally screwed up a Chargers/Chiefs preview and showed is ignorance.

https://nesn.com/2018/12/stephen-a-...-everything-wrong-in-chargers-chiefs-preview/

ESPN used to have great stewards like Stuart Scott (RIP), Bob Ley, Dan Patrick, Rich Eisen, and Tirico. Smith is now effectively the face of the network though, and his opinion pieces are just awful. I honestly believe they simply use him to elicit a negative response from their viewers, in a kind of bad cop to good cop scenario to counter the other anchors. I used to watch more ESPN, but I don't have time to listen to stupid opinions these days. What happened to the good reporting, the facts, and the highlights?

At least they let Dana Jacobsen go (Fuck Michigan) while Hannah Storm is still there.

 

[ab2cmiller]

They seem very sincere. LOL

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1263441021037395973[/TWEET]

 

[317Irish]

IMO, it's very simple. The screamers and yellers have been screaming and yelling for a long time to crusade their cause. Those on the other end have grown tired of having something shoved down their throats and are deciding to counter.

I know your pointing in a somewhat specific direction with this, but don’t we all just take turns screaming and yelling until others get to the point they want to do something. Hasn’t this been the case for... foreverish?

 

[TorontoGold]

I know your pointing in a somewhat specific direction with this, but don’t we all just take turns screaming and yelling until others get to the point they want to do something. Hasn’t this been the case for... foreverish?

It's always been beneath people in positions of power to scream and yell or "own" people. Seems to be normalized now, I'm not necessarily sure it's a right/left thing. Everyone wants their fighter to "own" the other side. However, if you consume the Young Turks (Cenk Uygur) and Turning Point USA (Charlie Kirk) style media you're really amplifying it.

 

[ACamp1900]

It's always been beneath people in positions of power to scream and yell or "own" people. Seems to be normalized now, I'm not necessarily sure it's a right/left thing. Everyone wants their fighter to "own" the other side. However, if you consume the Young Turks (Cenk Uygur) and Turning Point USA (Charlie Kirk) style media you're really amplifying it.

I don’t know if this is true honestly,... maybe the shade of grey is darker but politics has always been dirty and largely the people it attracts have always been ‘that type’. You can go to our founding and see all of Hamilton’s slinging and fighting (figuratively and quite literally) as just one example. I do understand the point tho,... more adults in the room.

 

[Armyirish47]

I don’t know if this is true honestly,... maybe the shade of grey is darker but politics has always been dirty and largely the people it attracts have always been ‘that type’. You can go to our founding and see all of Hamilton’s slinging and fighting (figuratively and quite literally) as just one example. I do understand the point tho,... more adults in the room.

Yeah but it was cool when Hamilton did it because he could dance, sing, and spit hot fire.

 

[Irishize]

Vaccine isn’t a panacea but it’s looking more hopeful.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-astrazenca-partnering-united-states-oxford/

 

[Circa]

They seem very sincere. LOL

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">PELOSI and SCHUMER write TRUMP asking him to order flags flown at half staff on the day America reaches 100k COVID deaths. <a href="https://t.co/rErBkhFzJh">pic.twitter.com/rErBkhFzJh</a></p>— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1263441021037395973?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 21, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Well, well, well. I guess the way they have been counting, heart attacks, strokes, suicides, aneurysms.... as Covid related, got politicians to a number before the holiday of Memorial they can get all the suckers to believe... .
I can't believe this Is still happening and newsworthy. . It's less than the average FLU. 100%
Just take care of yourselves my friends...

Don't get fooled by Government run Youtube/Google. I put the foundation in for Youtube/Google's super computer, Mountain View, CA. It's on NASA land. 99 year lease. After 99 years Google owns It. That's from people that knew, and I haven't talked to them In a while but truth, they were very high In the chain of information everyone asked about..
If you look It Up, Googleplex is off base (a little north) and the GOOGLE thing that we wern't allowed to speak of Is yet to have an address on NASA property. Altho the Amazon building Is up and running mail style.... On the NASA base that Is very militarized.
Next thing we'll hear Is the 10th amendment Isn't an important one and they can mandatory vaccinate everyone.

 

[Irish YJ]

Stephen A. Smith? Can't stand him. Cracks me up anytime he has egg on his face, like that little incident a few years ago when he totally screwed up a Chargers/Chiefs preview and showed is ignorance.

https://nesn.com/2018/12/stephen-a-...-everything-wrong-in-chargers-chiefs-preview/

ESPN used to have great stewards like Stuart Scott (RIP), Bob Ley, Dan Patrick, Rich Eisen, and Tirico. Smith is now effectively the face of the network though, and his opinion pieces are just awful. I honestly believe they simply use him to elicit a negative response from their viewers, in a kind of bad cop to good cop scenario to counter the other anchors. I used to watch more ESPN, but I don't have time to listen to stupid opinions these days. What happened to the good reporting, the facts, and the highlights?

At least they let Dana Jacobsen go (Fuck Michigan) while Hannah Storm is still there.

I can only stomach a few ESPN shows these days. Golic and Wingo, NFL Live, and Game Day are the only shows I can listen to and not throw up. I've always been a fan of Storm. She's never dipped into the stupid stuff and cute lol. Kolber, Sage S, and Russini too.

But every MSM on MSM has SA Smiths these days. All about the drama, emotion, fake virture, etc. etc.

 

[Bluto]

It's always been beneath people in positions of power to scream and yell or "own" people. Seems to be normalized now, I'm not necessarily sure it's a right/left thing. Everyone wants their fighter to "own" the other side. However, if you consume the Young Turks (Cenk Uygur) and Turning Point USA (Charlie Kirk) style media you're really amplifying it.

Are you familiar with the theories of fellow Canuck Marshall McLuhan on communication? Read some of his work back in the late 80's during my first crack at college. Pretty interesting stuff.

 

[ab2cmiller]

This should be interesting.

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1263833728482258948[/TWEET]

 

[ab2cmiller]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/AP/status/1263817152932589568[/TWEET]