College Football Playoff Rankings 2015 (ND #8...)

[Legacy]

I think you are wrong. An undefeated Big 12 champ that ends the season beating Baylor and Oklahoma gets in. They just do. Then they get rocked by Alabama. But they make the playoff.

Oklahoma vs. ND is an interesting debate. As someone said a few pages back, best thing for us is Baylor beating Okie State - ideally by a lot - this week and knocking them down a peg before they play the Sooners. Also TCU losing two more games. The Big 12 looks a lot less rugged with TCU unranked and Okie State down around 15-20.

How about the Baylor scenario? Baylor wins out (Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas). Oklahoma State beats OU, giving them their second loss. Baylor has the head to head over Oklahoma State. Does a one loss Baylor get in over a one loss ND?

 

[gkIrish]

You sound like this guy.

https://twitter.com/DanWolken/status/666822054847643648

Again, I'm not saying the Texas game doesn't matter. It matters a lot. I will personally be very sad if Oklahoma or OSU get in ahead of us as I think we are the better team.

But from a resume perspective, one game does not make a season. People can't just keep saying well.....we are better than OSU even if they go 12-0 because Texas.

Oklahoma will have two better wins than Notre Dame....but Texas.

Oklahoma could beat a 11-0 OSU team by 70 and people would be saying.....but Texas.

We just sound like an ignorant fan base when we say things like that.

 

[koonja]

Will Oklahoma have 2 better wins? USC would be ahead of TCU if OK beats TCU this week, and Baylor could end up behind Navy, and Stanford over OK ST.

It all depends on this week. There's no way to say 'OK will finish with better wins than ND' yet. If USC wins out to champ game, and Stanford wins next week along with Navy winning out, there's a good chance our wins dominate theirs.

And that has nothing to do with them losing to Texas.

 

[GoIrish41]

How about the Baylor scenario? Baylor wins out (Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas). Oklahoma State beats OU, giving them their second loss. Baylor has the head to head over Oklahoma State. Does a one loss Baylor get in over a one loss ND?

Highly doubtful. They weren't getting much respect when they were undefeated. A loss knocked them out, I think.

 

[Legacy]

Again, I'm not saying the Texas game doesn't matter. It matters a lot. I will personally be very sad if Oklahoma or OSU get in ahead of us as I think we are the better team.

But from a resume perspective, one game does not make a season. People can't just keep saying well.....we are better than OSU even if they go 12-0 because Texas.

Oklahoma will have two better wins than Notre Dame....but Texas.

Oklahoma could beat a 11-0 OSU team by 70 and people would be saying.....but Texas.

We just sound like an ignorant fan base when we say things like that.

Are we concluding that a one loss Notre Dame team will always have a tough time getting in over two conference champions who also have one loss for the fourth spot ? That sounds like the arguments from other fan bases.

The Committee may again make a statement that stresses the importance of OOC scheduling and a conference championship game in determining the four best teams. I also appreciate the Committee disregarding FCS wins like Oklahoma State has, which equalizes the number of FBS wins we have with Oklahoma State.

 

[Wild Bill]

First of all the OSU Texas game was in Austin.

Second, Swoopes was the QB against ND and he has essentially been the backup the entire rest of the year. No one ever talks about this. If our game against them was in Austin, with a healthy Heard at QB, we wouldn't win by 35.

Third, our reliance on beating Texas in week 1 to validate our position as a top 4 team is getting kind of ridiculous. I'd like to see someone make a case for us to be a top 4 team without mentioning the word "Texas." (that was a rhetorical request no one should actually do this).

They weren't a QB away from being competitive in that game and I'm not sure venue would have made a difference either. What's it worth, a few points?

The reality is we beat the shit out of them at every position and we did it for four quarters. We completely owned the line of scrimmage, stopped their run game and ran at will. Compare that to the Sooners who took almost a half to put up a field goal.

 

[koonja]

So OK beats TCU, TCU we'll say drops to #25.

#10 Baylor beats #6 OK ST. OK State drops to #12, #10 Baylor moves up to #6.

OK beats OK State, OK State drops to #18.

So Oklahoma ends up beating #25 TCU, #18 OK State, and #10 Baylor.

Temple and Tennessee are washes, and FWIW, Temple is the only one of the 2 receiving top 25 votes right now.

We have Navy who is at #16, USC at #23, and Stanford who would drop to ~#16 if we played and beat them.

So OK has beaten #25, #18, and #10.

ND ends up beating #23 USC, #16 Navy, and #16 Stanford.

*Leaving Navy and USC at their current positions because they could move up or down from here on out. Could be even better, could be worse. But at face value and predicting some of the outcomes we expect, their wins are not much better, if at all, compared to ours.

(PS, Texas, we beat that ass. But that's none of my business).

 

[gkIrish]

They weren't a QB away from being competitive in that game and I'm not sure venue would have made a difference either. What's it worth, a few points?

The reality is we beat the shit out of them at every position and we did it for four quarters. We completely owned the line of scrimmage, stopped their run game and ran at will. Compare that to the Sooners who took almost a half to put up a field goal.

The problem is you can't compare teams based on one single game. If Oklahoma and ND played essentially the same schedule and the only difference was that ND lost to Clemson by 2 and Oklahoma lost to a Texas team ND thumped then there is no debate whatsoever. ND is in, Oklahoma is out.

Unfortunately, there are 11 other games the committee will need to look at. I'm not convinced ND will have done enough compared to Oklahoma in those other 11 games. Again, I don't know what the committee will do, but I definitely don't think it's reasonable to dismiss the Big 12 because we destroyed Texas.

 

[Luckylucci]

Again, I'm not saying the Texas game doesn't matter. It matters a lot. I will personally be very sad if Oklahoma or OSU get in ahead of us as I think we are the better team.

But from a resume perspective, one game does not make a season. People can't just keep saying well.....we are better than OSU even if they go 12-0 because Texas.

Oklahoma will have two better wins than Notre Dame....but Texas.

Oklahoma could beat a 11-0 OSU team by 70 and people would be saying.....but Texas.

We just sound like an ignorant fan base when we say things like that.

To the other side of this though, we could say the same thing about OK's biggest win is against a team that started a true freshman QB. Thats the same as you previously explained as, us playing against Swoopes versus Heard, right?

 

[Legacy]

Notre Dame's got a Big 12 problem, and 3 other College Football Playoff ranking takeaways - SBNation.com

For discussion.

 

[GoIrish41]

The problem is you can't compare teams based on one single game. If Oklahoma and ND played essentially the same schedule and the only difference was that ND lost to Clemson by 2 and Oklahoma lost to a Texas team ND thumped then there is no debate whatsoever. ND is in, Oklahoma is out.

Unfortunately, there are 11 other games the committee will need to look at. I'm not convinced ND will have done enough compared to Oklahoma in those other 11 games. Again, I don't know what the committee will do, but I definitely don't think it's reasonable to dismiss the Big 12 because we destroyed Texas.

It'll be a moot point after Ohio State falls to Michigan St and/or Michigan over the next two weeks. And Oklahoma is playing as well as anyone in the country right now, and would be a tough matchup for anyone in the playoffs, IMO.

 

[gkIrish]

To the other side of this though, we could say the same thing about OK's biggest win is against a team that started a true freshman QB. Thats the same as you previously explained as, us playing against Swoopes versus Heard, right?

Of course. Everything comes into play. That's the point I've been trying to get across.

If I'm voting, ND > Oklahoma if Navy wins out and USC or Stanford win the Pac 12. If one of those things doesn't happen I would have to reconsider.

But I'm not voting.

 

[koonja]

Of course. Everything comes into play. That's the point I've been trying to get across.

If I'm voting, ND > Oklahoma if Navy wins out and USC or Stanford win the Pac 12. If one of those things doesn't happen I would have to reconsider.

But I'm not voting.

Do we keep BK if Navy doesn't win out?

 

[Green Mountains]

Koonja,

In your Big 12 scenerio....Baylor plays with TCU on 11/28. Assuming a Baylor win, TCU falls out of the top 25. That assumes a three loss in a row TCU team stays in the top 25 (which I don't believe would happen anyway).

Big 12 wins vs. ranked teams will very likely exclude TCU. In which case , its just Baylor, OSU and OU playing each other in the "against top 25" committee outlook.

ND will likely have Clemson, Stanford, Navy, and USC. There is an outside chance that Temple and Pitt could gain top 25 spots in the last rankings (but not necessarily likely).

 

[Wild Bill]

The problem is you can't compare teams based on one single game. If Oklahoma and ND played essentially the same schedule and the only difference was that ND lost to Clemson by 2 and Oklahoma lost to a Texas team ND thumped then there is no debate whatsoever. ND is in, Oklahoma is out.

Unfortunately, there are 11 other games the committee will need to look at. I'm not convinced ND will have done enough compared to Oklahoma in those other 11 games. Again, I don't know what the committee will do, but I definitely don't think it's reasonable to dismiss the Big 12 because we destroyed Texas.

You certainly can.

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

Championships won
Strength of schedule
Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

College Football Playoff

Of course, they'll take into account other factors, but if the decision comes between ND and OK, the committee MUST take into account the Texas game.

 

[NDRock]

Again, I'm not saying the Texas game doesn't matter. It matters a lot. I will personally be very sad if Oklahoma or OSU get in ahead of us as I think we are the better team.

But from a resume perspective, one game does not make a season. People can't just keep saying well.....we are better than OSU even if they go 12-0 because Texas.

Oklahoma will have two better wins than Notre Dame....but Texas.

Oklahoma could beat a 11-0 OSU team by 70 and people would be saying.....but Texas.

We just sound like an ignorant fan base when we say things like that.

I'm not really sure what your argument is. You say the game matters "a lot" but then you call people "ignorant" if they bring it up too much. What is the correct amount of weight we're allowed to place on this game when discussing us vs. Oklahoma? I don't want to be ignorant.

 

[koonja]

Koonja,

In your Big 12 scenerio....Baylor plays with TCU on 11/28. Assuming a Baylor win, TCU falls out of the top 25. That assumes a three loss in a row TCU team stays in the top 25 (which I don't believe would happen anyway).

Big 12 wins vs. ranked teams will very likely exclude TCU. In which case , its just Baylor, OSU and OU playing each other in the "against top 25" committee outlook.

ND will likely have Clemson, Stanford, Navy, and USC. There is an outside chance that Temple and Pitt could gain top 25 spots in the last rankings (but not necessarily likely).

Ok, then TCU definitely doesn't remain ranked and Baylor probably moves up a few spots (generous coming from #10).

So OK would have beaten: Unranked TCU, #7 Baylor, #12 OK State.

ND would have beated: #23 USC, #16 Stanford, #16 Navy.

*Just forgot - I didn't leave room for Stanford to move up in their championship game.

 

[gkIrish]

You certainly can.



College Football Playoff

Of course, they'll take into account other factors, but if the decision comes between ND and OK, the committee MUST take into account the Texas game.

Of course they must take it into account. But posters here are saying it's the only relevant factor. Maybe that's not what you think, but other people do.

I'm not really sure what your argument is. You say the game matters "a lot" but then you call people "ignorant" if they bring it up too much. What is the correct amount of weight we're allowed to place on this game when discussing us vs. Oklahoma? I don't want to be ignorant.

Look back through this thread and see how many people have said we beat Texas, Oklahoma did not. End of story. That's what I find to be ignorant.

Anyway, there's only so many times I can repeat my opinion so that's all from me for this week. I pray this doesn't happen, but if Oklahoma jumps us after beating OSU I don't want to hear any crying.

 

[pkt77242]

I'm not really sure what your argument is. You say the game matters "a lot" but then you call people "ignorant" if they bring it up too much. What is the correct amount of weight we're allowed to place on this game when discussing us vs. Oklahoma? I don't want to be ignorant.

I don't want to speak for GK, but the feeling that I have is that people want to say that it is a slam dunk that if it is an 11-1 ND and an 11-1 OK for the final playoff spot that it is a slam dunk for ND. I think that myself (and maybe GK thinks this as well) that ND probably should/could be the pick but that it is far from a given. If that situation happens (and some of this depends on other teams on both ND and OK schedules do) I feel that it will be a close decision and I would place it more like a 60(ND)/40(OK), not a 100/0 or 90/10 as some seem think that it will be.

 

[wizards8507]

Look back through this thread and see how many people have said we beat Texas, Oklahoma did not. End of story. That's what I find to be ignorant.

Exactly. Let's venture into hypothetical world and say Oklahoma beat Alabama, LSU, Clemson, Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma state, but lost to Texas. Notre Dame beat Army, Navy, Air Force, UMass, Tulane, and Texas, but lost to Eastern Carolina. The argument people around here are making is that ND would be in because they have the common opponent advantage over Texas, but Oklahoma obviously has a superior resume in that scenario.

 

[IrishLax]

Notre Dame's got a Big 12 problem, and 3 other College Football Playoff ranking takeaways - SBNation.com

For discussion.

Boston College has a better chance of beating Notre Dame than Michigan State does of beating Ohio State? What?

Notre Dame is #6 at 93%, Ohio State is #3 at 96.8%. Boston College is 64th at 58.5%, Michigan State is 27th at 80.8%. Notre Dame has almost double the percentile spread over BC as OSU does over MSU... so either he crunched the numbers wrong from S&P, or the odds evaluation he's doing is completely worthless.

 

[wizards8507]

Boston College has a better chance of beating Notre Dame than Michigan State does of beating Ohio State? What?

Notre Dame is #6 at 93%, Ohio State is #3 at 96.8%. Boston College is 64th at 58.5%, Michigan State is 27th at 80.8%. Notre Dame has almost double the percentile spread over BC as OSU does over MSU... so either he crunched the numbers wrong from S&P, or the odds evaluation he's doing is completely worthless.

Yeah this guy strikes me as a major idiot. He mentions BC's "stout defense" but neglects to mention they have the worst offensive efficiency of any Power 5 program. The only teams with a worse offense are Kent State, Charlotte, and UCF.

 

[Legacy]

Of course they must take it into account. But posters here are saying it's the only relevant factor. Maybe that's not what you think, but other people do.

Look back through this thread and see how many people have said we beat Texas, Oklahoma did not. End of story. That's what I find to be ignorant.

Anyway, there's only so many times I can repeat my opinion so that's all from me for this week. I pray this doesn't happen, but if Oklahoma jumps us after beating OSU I don't want to hear any crying.

I really don't hear that at all. Speculation is just that. You will hear arguments if OU jumps ND - though it won't matter in the end and it won't be crying. I thought we were moving through what if scenarios. There's lots of football still to play and with the topic we may be discussing different scenarios next week. Thanks for adding your voice.

 

[IrishLax]

Yeah this guy strikes me as a major idiot. He mentions BC's "stout defense" but neglects to mention they have the worst offensive efficiency of any Power 5 program. The only teams with a worse offense are Kent State, Charlotte, and UCF.

FWIW, offshore sportsbooks/Vegas put the moneyline at around -800 for ND which equates to an 89% chance of victory (or 88%ish if you include the vig). Which makes a lot more sense than saying Boston College should beat a top five team 1 out of every 5 games.

If anyone actually buys what he's selling in terms of win probability, you should go to Vegas and bet heavily on BC because you're almost getting double value on the implied odds vs. this guy's projection.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Yeah this guy strikes me as a major idiot. He mentions BC's "stout defense" but neglects to mention they have the worst offensive efficiency of any Power 5 program. The only teams with a worse offense are Kent State, Charlotte, and UCF.

Bill Connolly's S&P+ model isn't my favorite, but he's definitely not an idiot.

 

[JohnnyJasper]

I just want a rout over BC this weekend so we can look ahead to Stanford and gain some momentum and confidence.

Not to mention we are definitely rooting for Mich st., Baylor, Mich., Ok and TCU the next few weeks.

Gotta get these guys fired up. Next two weeks are going to be a lot of fun.

 

[wizards8507]

Bill Connolly's S&P+ model isn't my favorite, but he's definitely not an idiot.

Sometimes you need to abandon the statistical models and use your brain to say "BC is not a good football team." If I had a statistical model that said LSU could beat the Miami Dolphins, I'd be an idiot to rely on it.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Sometimes you need to abandon the statistical models and use your brain to say "BC is not a good football team." If I had a statistical model that said LSU could beat the Miami Dolphins, I'd be an idiot to rely on it.

Here's the statement that so grossly offended your sensibilities:

First, there's the remaining schedule: the Irish must survive Boston College's stout defense, then head west to face Stanford's rugged offense. S&P+ says they only have a 41 percent chance of winning both games.

The horror! S&P+ gives us a 79% chance to beat BC. Vegas puts it at 89%. Clearly, S&P+ is a joke.

Regardless, since Stanford is a toss-up, even plugging in Vegas' odds doesn't change the fact that we're more likely than not to end up 10-2 than 11-1 according to most statistical models.

 

[wizards8507]

Here's the statement that so grossly offended your sensibilities:

The horror! S&P+ gives us a 79% chance to beat BC. Vegas puts it at 89%. Clearly, S&P+ is a joke.

Regardless, since Stanford is a toss-up, even plugging in Vegas' odds doesn't change the fact that we're more likely than not to end up 10-2 than 11-1 according to most statistical models.

Again, ...according to most statistical models. We've argued this before and I have no desire to do so again but statistical models are largely useless in football. The sample size is just too small. A 162-game baseball season? Absolutely. But when you play 12 games in a field of 128, the models are unreliable and you need to rely on football acumen, not statistical acumen.

 

[Irish#1]

Lots of opinions on here. Just remember what they say about them and as$holes. Everyone has one and everyone thinks theirs doesn't stink!