College Football Playoff Rankings 2015 (ND #8...)

[wizards8507]

All of this is moot if OKST wins out, of course.

Exactly. 12-0 OK State is in. 11-1 OK State is out. 11-1 Oklahoma is meeeeeeh.....?

 

[wizards8507]

1.) We win our last games by double digits

You heard of a fellow named Christian McCaffrey? I think we beat Stanford, but I'd be utterly shocked if it was more than a few points.

 

[IrishLion]

Exactly. 12-0 OK State is in. 11-1 OK State is out. 11-1 Oklahoma is meeeeeeh.....?

I think they're out, if Jeff Long isn't just a liar liar pants on fire. And that's kind of where believe the gap would still exist.

 

[gkIrish]

Alternatively

Florida State beats Florida
Florida beats Alabama in SEC championship

Big Ten
Clemson
ND
Big 12

You all cool with that?

 

[gkIrish]

I think they're out, if Jeff Long isn't just a liar liar pants on fire. And that's kind of where believe the gap would still exist.

This is what I was getting at earlier. What would he be lying about?

 

[IrishLion]

Alternatively

Sparty beats OSU
Nebraska beats Iowa
Iowa beats Sparty in B1G 'chip
Florida State beats Florida
Florida beats Alabama in SEC championship


Clemson
ND
Big 12
Big 12

You all cool with that?

FIFY

For real, after all of the debate, it only makes sense that two Big XII teams will get in somehow, because college football.

 

[IrishLion]

This is what I was getting at earlier. What would he be lying about?

He's not lying about anything, which is my point lol.

If he's lying, it would mean the committee doesn't care was happened between ND/Texas and OU/Texas. And I don't think that's the case.

 

[rocket66]

Did you know OU is going to run the table and beat everyone 55-0, and ND will beat Stanford 6-3 in OT?

In all seriousness, we need to look great against BC because everyone will be watching to justify that #4 ranking.


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[wizards8507]

Alternatively

Florida State beats Florida
Florida beats Alabama in SEC championship

Big Ten
Clemson
ND
Big 12

You all cool with that?

Florida would be in, I bet you anything. I'm always a little skeptical of the "SEC bias" claims but one thing that is undeniably real is Alabama bias. The only thing better than being Alabama is beating Alabama.

 

[gkIrish]

He's not lying about anything, which is my point lol.

If he's lying, it would mean the committee doesn't care was happened between ND/Texas and OU/Texas. And I don't think that's the case.

Yeah but you're saying either ND gets in over Oklahoma because of Texas or he is lying.

If Oklahoma gets in it doesn't mean he was lying, it just means it wasn't the deciding factor.

 

[gkIrish]

Florida would be in, I bet you anything. I'm always a little skeptical of the "SEC bias" claims but one thing that is undeniably real is Alabama bias. The only thing better than being Alabama is beating Alabama.

ehhhhhhh I don't know about that. Florida's losses would be reasonable but their only good win would be over Alabama.

I think there would be an 8 team playoff in 2016 if that happened because people would be so angry.

 

[IrishLion]

Yeah but you're saying either ND gets in over Oklahoma because of Texas or he is lying.

If Oklahoma gets in it doesn't mean he was lying, it just means it wasn't the deciding factor.

Based on what he said last night, it sounds like it will be the first and biggest factor if it comes down to OU vs ND for the fourth spot. It was the first and only thing he mentioned on the matter, unless I missed something.

 

[wizards8507]

In all seriousness, we need to look great against BC because everyone will be watching to justify that #4 ranking.

No, nobody will be watching. Top teams playing bottom-feeders don't get an audience. They get a glance at the box score. That's why it's super important that the final score reflect our superiority. We can't be giving up garbage time touchdowns as has become our habit against inferior competition.

One thing that has a slight negative effect on us in terms of exposure is that our games aren't on ABC / ESPN networks so our highlights don't make it into a lot of the halftime shows. It takes ESPN much longer to ingest and flip NBC feeds for a highlight package than what they can do with their own content.

 

[koonja]

Florida would be in, I bet you anything. I'm always a little skeptical of the "SEC bias" claims but one thing that is undeniably real is Alabama bias. The only thing better than being Alabama is beating Alabama.

I'll bet you a buffalo nickel that Florida would NOT be in if ND remains at 1 loss, Oklahoma has 1 loss and/or OK ST is undefeated, and Clemson remains undefeated.

 

[koonja]

They'll watch all top 10 games, maybe not live, but if they're not watching every game, ours included, they're not doing their jobs. So yes they will see the BC game.

 

[irishfan]

We want MSU to beat OSU, right?

Or doesn't it matter because presumably OSU would be out, and MSU would be in the conference champ game with a chance to win there and secure a top 4. No chance both OSU and MSU make it in if MSU wins this weekend right?

I guess, just because it's nice to see OSU lose. But, I think a 12-1 Michigan State would finish ahead of us unless our SOS broke the right way. They'd have wins over Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, and Oregon which would probably be better than our top-4 wins.

Agreed that there's no way an 11-1 OSU would be in over us.

 

[wizards8507]

We want MSU to beat OSU, right?

I guess, just because it's nice to see OSU lose. But, I think a 12-1 Michigan State would finish ahead of us unless our SOS broke the right way. They'd have wins over Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, and Oregon which would probably be better than our top-4 wins.

Agreed that there's no way an 11-1 OSU would be in over us.

Absolutely not. Our best case scenario in the Big 10 is that Michigan wins with two losses. For the tiebreakers to work out, we need OSU to beat MSU and then Michigan to beat OSU.

Otherwise, the Big 10 is in the playoff no matter what happens.

We're Michigan fans for a few weeks...

 

[koonja]

Absolutely not. Our best case scenario in the Big 10 is that Michigan wins with two losses. For the tiebreakers to work out, we need OSU to beat MSU and then Michigan to beat OSU.

Otherwise, the Big 10 is in the playoff no matter what happens.

We're Michigan fans for a few weeks...

If Michigan beats OSU, OSU still goes to the conference title game, no? So if so, you're wrong - they'd still find a way in.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Dismissive with an overwhelming bouquet of superiority. Vintage. Put the cork back in it for further aging, though I am not sure the taste will improve.

Legacy...

You're like that four ounce house dog that wants to hump my leg every chance you get. Much like the house dog, your bark is much worse than your bite. Go hide behind the couch and wait on the door bell to ring again. Enjoy.

 

[wizards8507]

If Michigan beats OSU, OSU still goes to the conference title game, no? So if so, you're wrong - they'd still find a way in.

No, that's not correct. Michigan's first loss was to out-of-conference Utah, so it has nothing to do with the conference standings. If Michigan State loses to Ohio State, that's two conference losses and they're out of it. The East would be decided by the head-to-head winner of Michigan and Ohio State.

Here's the tiebreakers between Ohio State, Michigan State, and UM - Land-Grant Holy Land

If Ohio State beats Michigan State and both they and Michigan win out otherwise, the winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game in Ann Arbor the Saturday after Thanksgiving are the Big Ten East champs.

 

[rocket66]

No, nobody will be watching. Top teams playing bottom-feeders don't get an audience. They get a glance at the box score. That's why it's super important that the final score reflect our superiority. We can't be giving up garbage time touchdowns as has become our habit against inferior competition.



One thing that has a slight negative effect on us in terms of exposure is that our games aren't on ABC / ESPN networks so our highlights don't make it into a lot of the halftime shows. It takes ESPN much longer to ingest and flip NBC feeds for a highlight package than what they can do with their own content.

Uh. What? Everyone will be watching to hopefully make a case next week against ND. This morning Finebaum said he and others he knows are very interested in watching how ND plays against an inferior opponent.


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[Bogtrotter07]

I still believe OSU will beat MSt, then lose to scUM. Then OSU jail sexes Iowa.



SMH... that's why like 99% of the board would give their pinky toe not to play Bama in the first round. Eye test, record, SOS, they have it. You don't have to be a homer to see that. Yes you can question some FCS scheduling, but it's funny to not think them a top 4 team given the alternatives. I do not believe they should be #1, but they are definitely in the top 4.



Agree. I do think both will happen though.

If OSU beats MSU then loses to UM, UM is in the BIG CG. Most UM fans seem to think that a win vs OSU and Iowa would put the first 2 loss team into the playoffs.

Simple logic at work here. The committee sees NDs loss as really .990 of a win. Win out and your in dependent on OKSt losing. OU will not pass ND and Iowa only jumps in if they beat OSU which would eliminate OSU. Bonus round is teams on our schedule keep winning as noted above (Looking at you Navy, USC, Stanford, Pitt, Texas, Temple), and our 2 PAC 12 opponents play in a PAC12 CG.

If OSU looses, they are out. Any game. They will not have had a quality win at all unless they beat the Michigan teams and loose to Iowa. Which is pretty damned illogical.

No matter what OSU does against MSU, if they loose to Michigan they are out.

Or if OSU looses to MSU and beats Michigan, they are still out for the playoff. Which means in that scenario, after losing to MSU, kicking the Wolverines to the curb, they will stomp Iowa with style. So their quality win will be only Michigan? And you know that game is usually close, and a bloodbath.

If OSU looses to MSU, beats Michigan, and looses to Iowa, which won't happen, Iowa is in and I don't see the committee as denying either ND or a one loss Big 12 team over the Buckeyes. (Let alone an undefeated Iowa team, which is the worst case scenario for the Irish! EG., Iowa 12-0, Alabama who is in no matter what, Clemson which would have to immolate spontaneously to miss being included, and ???)

Iowa will probably lose to Nebraska, but if they do win that game, the chances of them beating their opponent in the championship game are what? ________ I will leave the space for you statisticians to fill in, a low percentage would be fine, but you may want to use dirt!

I still believe OSU will beat MSt, then lose to scUM. Then OSU jail sexes Iowa.



SMH... that's why like 99% of the board would give their pinky toe not to play Bama in the first round. Eye test, record, SOS, they have it. You don't have to be a homer to see that. Yes you can question some FCS scheduling, but it's funny to not think them a top 4 team given the alternatives. I do not believe they should be #1, but they are definitely in the top 4.



Agree. I do think both will happen though.

If OSU beats MSU then loses to UM, UM is in the BIG CG. Most UM fans seem to think that a win vs OSU and Iowa would put the first 2 loss team into the playoffs.

Simple logic at work here. The committee sees NDs loss as really .990 of a win. Win out and your in dependent on OKSt losing. OU will not pass ND and Iowa only jumps in if they beat OSU which would eliminate OSU. Bonus round is teams on our schedule keep winning as noted above (Looking at you Navy, USC, Stanford, Pitt, Texas, Temple), and our 2 PAC 12 opponents play in a PAC12 CG.

He hasn't been wrong. The entire ND/OU argument centers around both finishing 11-1 wish hasn't happened yet. I don't think anyone anticipated ND being jumped by OU or OK State until the final week.

If we get lucky and OU finishes 10-2, OK State finishes 11-1, and Baylor finishes 11-1....do you guys (or anyone else) think that there is any way that ND finishes outside the top 4? Regardless of how Navy/USC/Stanford/Temple finish the year? I think at that point, only a scenario with a 12-1 UNC/Clemson or a 13-0 Iowa and 12-1 Ohio State could give us any issue.

I still believe OSU will beat MSt, then lose to scUM. Then OSU jail sexes Iowa.



SMH... that's why like 99% of the board would give their pinky toe not to play Bama in the first round. Eye test, record, SOS, they have it. You don't have to be a homer to see that. Yes you can question some FCS scheduling, but it's funny to not think them a top 4 team given the alternatives. I do not believe they should be #1, but they are definitely in the top 4.



Agree. I do think both will happen though.

If OSU beats MSU then loses to UM, UM is in the BIG CG. Most UM fans seem to think that a win vs OSU and Iowa would put the first 2 loss team into the playoffs.

Simple logic at work here. The committee sees NDs loss as really .990 of a win. Win out and your in dependent on OKSt losing. OU will not pass ND and Iowa only jumps in if they beat OSU which would eliminate OSU. Bonus round is teams on our schedule keep winning as noted above (Looking at you Navy, USC, Stanford, Pitt, Texas, Temple), and our 2 PAC 12 opponents play in a PAC12 CG.

He hasn't been wrong. The entire ND/OU argument centers around both finishing 11-1 wish hasn't happened yet. I don't think anyone anticipated ND being jumped by OU or OK State until the final week.

If we get lucky and OU finishes 10-2, OK State finishes 11-1, and Baylor finishes 11-1....do you guys (or anyone else) think that there is any way that ND finishes outside the top 4? Regardless of how Navy/USC/Stanford/Temple finish the year? I think at that point, only a scenario with a 12-1 UNC/Clemson or a 13-0 Iowa and 12-1 Ohio State could give us any issue.

If Michigan wins out (PSU and OSU) they are in the B1GOT championship game.

If Michigan then wins the B1GOT championship game, the B1GOT will not have a representative this year in the college football playoff. The committee has been looking for a way to drop OSU, and advance an undefeated Big 12 team the last three weeks. Same as with FSU last year. If they hadn't won out they would have been left out.

If Michigan wins the B1GOT with their two losses, and especially if OSU beats MSU, and with the way UM lost to MSU, the committee will not consider Michigan. Connie will have had to brought 'shrooms for that conversation to have ever even taken place. .

He hasn't been wrong. The entire ND/OU argument centers around both finishing 11-1 wish hasn't happened yet. I don't think anyone anticipated ND being jumped by OU or OK State until the final week.

The one thing no one has mentioned is what is the Big 12's record against Power 5, versus ND's. ND doesn't just have an argument at the top of the schedule, because the Big 12's biggest wins will have been against each other, except for what? A 6-4 Tennessee? ND has a powerful argument at the bottom end of their schedule as well! And this is a point not lost on the committee; scheduling decent opponents is what the committee sees as a champions bread and butter!

If we get lucky and OU finishes 10-2, OK State finishes 11-1, and Baylor finishes 11-1....do you guys (or anyone else) think that there is any way that ND finishes outside the top 4? Regardless of how Navy/USC/Stanford/Temple finish the year? I think at that point, only a scenario with a 12-1 UNC/Clemson or a 13-0 Iowa and 12-1 Ohio State could give us any issue.

I think the most important items on that list are 1 and 2. If OSU wins out, ND will be left out. An 11-1 Oklahoma doesn't get in over ND with that bad loss to Texas.

There is more than one scenario where ND could move up to three, which I only want for selfish reasons, if Clemson moves to two permanently.

The only one loss team ND really has to worry about is 'Bama. And the only two loss team ND has to worry about is 'Bama.

I am much more interested in seeing FSU beat Florida and Stanford beating Cal, than I am worried about a dooms day scenario in the Big 12 or the B1GOT.

 

[Bugzly21]

If Michigan beats OSU, OSU still goes to the conference title game, no? So if so, you're wrong - they'd still find a way in.

No. OSU beats MSU then loses to scUM, then scUM wins the division based on H2H

 

[wizards8507]

If Michigan wins out (PSU and OSU) they are in the B1GOT championship game.

Not true. They need to win out AND they need OSU to beat MSU. Otherwise they finish in a tie with MSU, and MSU wins on head-to-head.

 

[koonja]

So we definitely need OSU to beat MSU, then hope Michigan can beat OSU, and Michigan again win against Iowa (assuming Iowa hasn't lost yet).

Right? That's the only way a Big 10 team is left out.

 

[pkt77242]

My biggest beef in all of the media talk is the discussion of "conference championships are the #1 criteria". Has that ever really been stated? I think the media hangs their hat on that to justify osu getting in over the Big12 last year, but honestly I think the committee puts who they think are the best 4 teams regardless of the championship game. The only thing a championship game offers is extra data and help if a certain team has a bad schedule - similar to Iowa this year. They would need that last game to boost them into the top 4.


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Here are two links that might help or might muddy the water even more.

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

Championships won
Strength of schedule
Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

College Football Playoff



From the NCAA website:

A selection committee will pick the four teams -- using guidelines such as strength of schedule, head-to-head results and won-loss record -- after the regular season. The committee will give preference to conference champions.

Answers about football's new playoff | NCAA.com

 

[wizards8507]

So we definitely need OSU to beat MSU, then hope Michigan can beat OSU, and Michigan again win against Iowa (assuming Iowa hasn't lost yet).

Right? That's the only way a Big 10 team is left out.

Assuming Iowa beats Purdue and Nebraska, yes.

 

[Irish Insanity]

No, nobody will be watching. Top teams playing bottom-feeders don't get an audience. They get a glance at the box score. That's why it's super important that the final score reflect our superiority. We can't be giving up garbage time touchdowns as has become our habit against inferior competition.

One thing that has a slight negative effect on us in terms of exposure is that our games aren't on ABC / ESPN networks so our highlights don't make it into a lot of the halftime shows. It takes ESPN much longer to ingest and flip NBC feeds for a highlight package than what they can do with their own content.

ESPN hates ND.

 

[wizards8507]

Here are two links that might help or might muddy the water even more.

College Football Playoff

From the NCAA website

Answers about football's new playoff | NCAA.com

"...while at the same time providing enough flexibility and discretion to select a non-champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non-champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country."

 

[IrishinSyria]

"...while at the same time providing enough flexibility and discretion to select a non-champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non-champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country."

That's problematic. I don't think anyone thinks that is literally binding though.