Chad Bowden to USC

Dale

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TOs forced by season - regular season:

2022: 13
2023: 23
2024: 28

28 is pretty on par to lead the country or be close to the very top essentially every single season in recent history. I would be pleasantly surprised if they forced more TOs than last year. Granted 11 of those were in two games, so spreading them out would be beneficial
 

IAIrish

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TOs forced by season - regular season:

2022: 13
2023: 23
2024: 28

28 is pretty on par to lead the country or be close to the very top essentially every single season in recent history. I would be pleasantly surprised if they forced more TOs than last year. Granted 11 of those were in two games, so spreading them out would be beneficial
I'd set the over/under at 25. My hunch is we'll see fewer int's without agent 0 patrolling the back end, but will see more strip sacks with the return of Botelho, Traore, Hinish and Onye (who was coming into his own as an interior pass rusher) not to mention the development of Thomas and BY.
 

bumpdaddy

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It sounds like the next DPP will be a more encompassing role moving forward. So that is the two hires, a reimagined GM and a reimagined DPP.
That's probably right. I think they're going to restructure one way or another. Exactly how they do that is TBD.
 

IrishWayDomer

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Losing Watts. Kizer. Mills. Ben Mo. H Cross are all huge reasons.

Yes there's replacements but those guys were battle tested.
We won 2 playoff games without Mills and Ben Mo (3 without Ben Mo). Howard Cross was hurt the entire time, and I don't think Kiser is going to be a big loss at all. We'll have upgraded athletes and all now with experience (KVA, Bowen, Sneed).

Watts is a huge loss though.
 

Veritate Duce Progredi

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Losing Watts. Kizer. Mills. Ben Mo. H Cross are all huge reasons.

Yes there's replacements but those guys were battle tested.
No doubt but the counterargument is that Mills was banged up at times and missed our two biggest wins of the season.
Cross missed multiple games and was probably operating at 80% in the playoffs, thus greatly reduced.
Ben Mo was absent from game 5 onward.

So in many respects, the defense has already shown what it can do without those guys at various stretches. We need more guys to emerge on the DL because Cross/Mills absence was very noticeable. But so was the loss of all of our edge rushers.

Returning are Traore, Logan Thomas, Botelho, Bryce Young, potentially Onye, Dixon, Burnham, Hinish, Mullins (my personal dark horse), Rubio and we're bringing in some high potential disruptors in Dawson and Hughes. I left Mukham, Houstan and Vernon off until I hear a single good report on their progress. Tuihalamaka was left off because I think he's far less effective against the best teams and I think he'll again find himself relegated to the 3rd or 4th best option at DE. That's 12 guys to produce 8 serious rotation pieces. I really like those odds.

Kizer was truly an excellent LB for us but that room is loaded and we get a further developed KVA, Sneed, Bowen, Ausberry, Faraimo and a lot of guys who'd like to prove themselves.

And our secondary has a ton of experience, even if a bit thin. And the transfer nickel (D. Smith) looks to be a great addition. Watts' departure is the only unanswered question in my mind, still a lot of options but he was so damn good the last two seasons. Shuler needs to elevate his game to fill some of that massive void.
 

Dale

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Replacing the football IQs of Kizer and Watts is going to be really difficult. That will be the thing that keeps us from being a top five defense.

True but we dumbed down the defense a lot when Morrison got hurt. Biggest adjustment will be Golden to Ash, learning anything new
 

Te'o4Heisman

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No doubt but the counterargument is that Mills was banged up at times and missed our two biggest wins of the season.
Cross missed multiple games and was probably operating at 80% in the playoffs, thus greatly reduced.
Ben Mo was absent from game 5 onward.

So in many respects, the defense has already shown what it can do without those guys at various stretches. We need more guys to emerge on the DL because Cross/Mills absence was very noticeable. But so was the loss of all of our edge rushers.

Returning are Traore, Logan Thomas, Botelho, Bryce Young, potentially Onye, Dixon, Burnham, Hinish, Mullins (my personal dark horse), Rubio and we're bringing in some high potential disruptors in Dawson and Hughes. I left Mukham, Houstan and Vernon off until I hear a single good report on their progress. Tuihalamaka was left off because I think he's far less effective against the best teams and I think he'll again find himself relegated to the 3rd or 4th best option at DE. That's 12 guys to produce 8 serious rotation pieces. I really like those odds.

Kizer was truly an excellent LB for us but that room is loaded and we get a further developed KVA, Sneed, Bowen, Ausberry, Faraimo and a lot of guys who'd like to prove themselves.

And our secondary has a ton of experience, even if a bit thin. And the transfer nickel (D. Smith) looks to be a great addition. Watts' departure is the only unanswered question in my mind, still a lot of options but he was so damn good the last two seasons. Shuler needs to elevate his game to fill some of that massive void.
It wouldnt be hard to imagine him becoming a complete stud with how he performed as a young starter. Will be interesting to see if/how he develops.
 

InKellyWeTrust

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This schedule also has us playing better offenses than this year. We might be just as good or better than last year but with stiffer competition
This is all factored in with advanced analytics, they adjust for all that stuff. Top 5 defense should be the expectation next year
 

Dale

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This schedule also has us playing better offenses than this year. We might be just as good or better than last year but with stiffer competition

SP+ by opponent

8. Louisville
15. USC
21. A&M

42. Georgia Tech
43. Army
51. Navy

91. Stanford
95. Virginia
98. Miami (OH)
114. Florida State
115. NIU
116. Purdue

USC and Louisville were valid tests. And I think better offenses than most gave credit for, but yeah the bad offenses were BAD. Given Army, Navy + Ga Tech being without King, they essentially never played a just average offense. A small handful of good and a ton of really really bad. In a vacuum, there is a chance nobody is better on offense than Louisville was on the schedule. But you will see a lot more 40, 50, 60th ranked type offenses this season.
 

mrmcgrail

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I do think Miami is going to take a step back this year but that offense can cook when it gets going and sc will be comparable to last year then you throw in just a lot of teams who will be pretty decent week to week who put up more yards and points in comparison to last year. We most likely aren't going to end up with the 3rd scoring defense this year based off of our schedule
 

Hautian Domer

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We won 2 playoff games without Mills and Ben Mo (3 without Ben Mo). Howard Cross was hurt the entire time, and I don't think Kiser is going to be a big loss at all. We'll have upgraded athletes and all now with experience (KVA, Bowen, Sneed).

Watts is a huge loss though.
The only notable losses there are Watts and Morrison. Those are just elite, first team All American type players. Cross, as you said, was largely injured and wasn’t too much of a factor due to his injuries and size. Mills had a good second half to the season, but if we’re being honest, he isn’t some Jalen Carter type game changer. He’s good…he’s a good player that’s likely drafted in the 4th-6th round. Kiser, man I hate to say it because he played hard and to the best of abilities, but in terms of sheer athleticism and raw talent, anyone replacing him will likely be an upgrade. Kiser was just a smart player
 

Hautian Domer

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This schedule also has us playing better offenses than this year. We might be just as good or better than last year but with stiffer competition

does anyone know anything about the following teams:

- A&M: Are they expected to be better next year?
- Arkansas: No clue about them. Playing them in Fayetteville and I assume a night game has me worried
- Boise State: Losing Jeanty to the draft is huge. But they’re a tough, well coached, sound program. That’ll be a tough game
 

allenm5333

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does anyone know anything about the following teams:

- A&M: Are they expected to be better next year?
- Arkansas: No clue about them. Playing them in Fayetteville and I assume a night game has me worried
- Boise State: Losing Jeanty to the draft is huge. But they’re a tough, well coached, sound program. That’ll be a tough game
A&M may be better bc if year 2 under Elko. But that DL loses a ton. Not convinced they have a qb who scares me
 

KMac151993

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The only notable losses there are Watts and Morrison. Those are just elite, first team All American type players. Cross, as you said, was largely injured and wasn’t too much of a factor due to his injuries and size. Mills had a good second half to the season, but if we’re being honest, he isn’t some Jalen Carter type game changer. He’s good…he’s a good player that’s likely drafted in the 4th-6th round. Kiser, man I hate to say it because he played hard and to the best of abilities, but in terms of sheer athleticism and raw talent, anyone replacing him will likely be an upgrade. Kiser was just a smart player
I didn't think Watts had his normal excellent run down the stretch there. Even with Cross injured he was still a stabilizing force and a great player - that alone will make him be missed. Kiser for some reason gets a bad rap as lacking athleticism...then add his intelligence and he is a huge loss. We lose our leaders at all three levels on D and the man calling the shots. Will be a tall task to replace.
 

Bane

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does anyone know anything about the following teams:

- A&M: Are they expected to be better next year?
- Arkansas: No clue about them. Playing them in Fayetteville and I assume a night game has me worried
- Boise State: Losing Jeanty to the draft is huge. But they’re a tough, well coached, sound program. That’ll be a tough game
Boise should take a bit of a step back, I believe they were pretty senior heavy on the team.
 

InKellyWeTrust

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I didn't think Watts had his normal excellent run down the stretch there. Even with Cross injured he was still a stabilizing force and a great player - that alone will make him be missed. Kiser for some reason gets a bad rap as lacking athleticism...then add his intelligence and he is a huge loss. We lose our leaders at all three levels on D and the man calling the shots. Will be a tall task to replace.
This can be said every year in college football. The defense will be better.
 

Katzenboyer

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I do think Miami is going to take a step back this year but that offense can cook when it gets going and sc will be comparable to last year then you throw in just a lot of teams who will be pretty decent week to week who put up more yards and points in comparison to last year. We most likely aren't going to end up with the 3rd scoring defense this year based off of our schedule

Miami is definitely going to take a step back on the offensive side of the football. Cam Ward was a magician last year; Carson Beck is a nice player, but he's no where near Ward's level.

That being said, I do think Miami's defense will improve significantly. Lance Guidry oversaw a complete mess on that side of the ball last year; missed assignments, alignment issues, and piss-poor tackling. They hired Corey Heatherman as DC after Guidry was fired, and he coordinated a very stout Minnesota D in 2024. I expect that side of the ball to be much better.

In time for Week 1? We shall see.
 

matman4593

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It surprises me how many people overlook Kiser's impact. Maybe it has to do with his performance early in his career? (which would align with the "smart player but lacks athleticism" thought process). He doesn't flash like our young LBs do, but he was consistently in the right place, near the ball, making a play. Take Bowen for example-- I am a huge fan of his aggression and he flashed a ton for me personally. But sometimes that aggression got him out of position and he played himself out of plays. It's definitely a trade off between those two play styles.

Kiser's career arc at ND, play style, fan's player comps, and realistically his background (star rating, hometown, appearance, leadership) remind me and most of Drue Tranquil. Someone you don't truly appreciate until he's gone.

All this to say I think the LB room definitely has the players to fill the void he leaves behind and may very well improve. But lets put some respect on the young man's name-- Jack Kiser was a very good LB here and the epitome of an ND man.
 

Dale

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I would never phrase it as addition by subtraction, but my main part where I think ND can improve on at LB is a physicality at the point of attack. Kiser tended to secure a tackle, even if that meant maybe a 2 yard gain becomes 4, not a 2 yard gain stays at 2 or goes backwards. A very reliable but not always disruptive player.

In terms of “run stops” which PFF constitutes as a failed run (ex 1 and 10, get 2 yards). He had 4 stops versus Army and Navy each, as well as OSU, which he did play very well in the Natty. 3 versus Purdue.

Bowen, 6 vs Ga Tech, 4 vs PSU, 3 vs OSU and Louisville. Bowen caused negative plays against the top competition.

Kiser also never had a game missing more than one tackle, something the young pups can’t say.

So there’s a disruptive force that I think the younger LBs can bring on, but they gotta clean things up too.
 
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