Brian Kelly Revisited (RIP BOZO)

[NDRock]

You're actually right, according to 247 composite neither of those guys were 5* anyways.

I was using Rivals when I listed our 5* players. Obviously they were more right on those two.

 

[NDRock]

I would say that I "harp on the negatives" because I love ND and see want so much more for the team. "Good is the enemy of great" is not just a cliche corporate slogan but can be very accurate. I actually understand the mindset of "the previous three coaches were dumpster fires and we were circling the drain, lets hold on tight to what we got" but at year 10 I'm thoroughly convinced BK is not the guy to lead us into the Promised Land.

I was actually convinced of this after the NW loss in 2014 (to this date still the worst loss of the BK era IMO) and while there have been stretches where I wanted to believe otherwise (the win streak in 2015 between Clemson and Stanford; the win streak in 2017 between UGA and Miami<<this was actually the period of greatest belief for me) really I've remained pretty consistently convinced that BK is a good coach, but kind of a poor man's Mark Richt.

I pick on these things because to me ND stands for greatness. For a mystique and aura that not every program (not even every blue blood) has. I think of ND as the greatest college football program of all time (I can't give it to Alabama as so many of their earlier titles are built on sand and BS). If I were a Gophers fan I would be quite pleased, by my expectations would be much lower. I won't be satisfied until ND wins it all. Despite my pessimistic demeanor I'm actually an eternal optimist who believes ND can win a title, more than one actually, that is why I get so frustrated with BK. If I truly, deeply, believed that ND couldn't win a title I'd be less passionate.

I guess I can understand this mindset somewhat as you look at the big picture but it's just a setup for disappointment. If your entire reason for watching ND football is to see them win a NC, you should not have watched at all this year. ND, with their current talent, was never going to win a NC this year. No coach in America can take our roster and beat the Bama, Clemson, Ohio State in consecutive weeks (after going 12-0). Or at least, no coach up to this point has shown it can be done.

Wanting BK gone is not a crazy idea. Just realize, the next coach better be able to bring in the elite kids or you're going to be disappointed again. We need elite talent + elite coaching to win the whole thing. I personally think BK could win a title with the right talent, especially if a stud QB is involved. Can he do it? Maybe if Lea sticks around and we keep landing the top kids we're starting to land but I'd still bet against it.

 

[IrishLax]

I guess I can understand this mindset somewhat as you look at the big picture but it's just a setup for disappointment. If your entire reason for watching ND football is to see them win a NC, you should not have watched at all this year. ND, with their current talent, was never going to win a NC this year. No coach in America can take our roster and beat the Bama, Clemson, Ohio State in consecutive weeks (after going 12-0). Or at least, no coach up to this point has shown it can be done.

Wanting BK gone is not a crazy idea. Just realize, the next coach better be able to bring in the elite kids or you're going to be disappointed again. We need elite talent + elite coaching to win the whole thing. I personally think BK could win a title with the right talent, especially if a stud QB is involved. Can he do it? Maybe if Lea sticks around and we keep landing the top kids we're starting to land but I'd still bet against it.

This illustrates why I think the main question should be -- "Can BK recruit elite talent to South Bend?"

If you think he can, then you keep him. If you think he's only capable of recruiting classes in the teens, then your ceiling is Washington/Oklahoma.

I think we're seeing more of that with Tyree and Johnson. I have no concern about recruiting defense, Clark Lea has those guys ready to play 90%+ of the time and we've lost two stud WDEs this year only to have a 3rd stringer come in and kick ass. We are deep on that side of the ball and only have a few positions that need "talent" upgrades to compete with the best.

 

[NDRock]

This illustrates why I think the main question should be -- "Can BK recruit elite talent to South Bend?"

If you think he can, then you keep him. If you think he's only capable of recruiting classes in the teens, then your ceiling is Washington/Oklahoma.

I think we're seeing more of that with Tyree and Johnson. I have no concern about recruiting defense, Clark Lea has those guys ready to play 90%+ of the time and we've lost two stud WDEs this year only to have a 3rd stringer come in and kick ass. We are deep on that side of the ball and only have a few positions that need "talent" upgrades to compete with the best.

Yep. Good thing is the guys has proven he can win here by going 12-0 twice. Just need to keep landing the big time skill guys who we have committed in the next couple of classes. I'm all in on Bucher from Cali.

 

[AllTimeIrish]

You mean guys like Jaylon Smith, Q Nelson, and Stephon Tuitt? That's 3/7 we recruited. That's the best OL, LB, and arguably DL we have had. I'll take that every time. I don't understand the "some of the 5*s flame ou, so let's stop recruiting them" mindset. Guess what, a lot of the 3* and 4* players don't make it either.

Yes but, those flame-out 5 stars left gigantic holes on the roster. We did not have depth overall at most positions, and in that case the busts were magnified 10x.

NOW that BK has a much deeper roster, after admitting he needed to recruit depth much better in the last few years, it wouldn't hurt so much to bust on a premium prospect. We have depth, such as at DE this year, that allows us to take some hits and keep going. Back then, however, it destroyed our team when the best prospects busted.

 

[AllTimeIrish]

Yeah, the hope is now we can make the next step by convincing some elite guys to come and put us over the hump. Judging by the '20 and '21 commits, it may work out. Hope so.

This is what is happening. The only true weak spot in our current recruiting classes is CB and safety, we need some premium hits at those positions in the next two classes.

 

[ickythump1225]

I guess I can understand this mindset somewhat as you look at the big picture but it's just a setup for disappointment. If your entire reason for watching ND football is to see them win a NC, you should not have watched at all this year. ND, with their current talent, was never going to win a NC this year. No coach in America can take our roster and beat the Bama, Clemson, Ohio State in consecutive weeks (after going 12-0). Or at least, no coach up to this point has shown it can be done.

Wanting BK gone is not a crazy idea. Just realize, the next coach better be able to bring in the elite kids or you're going to be disappointed again. We need elite talent + elite coaching to win the whole thing. I personally think BK could win a title with the right talent, especially if a stud QB is involved. Can he do it? Maybe if Lea sticks around and we keep landing the top kids we're starting to land but I'd still bet against it.

Nope I don't expect a national title or even go to the playoffs every year. I want to at least feel like we have a realistic shot every few years or so. I want to occasionally have the team show up in a NY6 bowl. I don't think that's too much to ask.

 

[ickythump1225]

Yes, we are all dealing with a "I'm so important my team should win regularly, type of life."
Get a grip

No you're right, I should still be basking in the sweet glow of that Citrus Bowl win from two years ago. Give BK a lifetime contract.

 

[NDRock]

Yes but, those flame-out 5 stars left gigantic holes on the roster. We did not have depth overall at most positions, and in that case the busts were magnified 10x.

NOW that BK has a much deeper roster, after admitting he needed to recruit depth much better in the last few years, it wouldn't hurt so much to bust on a premium prospect. We have depth, such as at DE this year, that allows us to take some hits and keep going. Back then, however, it destroyed our team when the best prospects busted.

That's not true at all. Counting Vanderdoes, we only signed 8 5* kids (Rivals).

Jaylon Smith - All American
Quentin Nelson - All American
Stephon Tuitt - 3rd all time sack leader
Max Redfield - Played 3 years. Disappointment
Isaq Williams - Played 3 years. Disappointment
Gunner Kiel - Transfer
Greg Bryant - Transfer
Vanderdoes - Never came

No way that losing three kids over a five year period "destroyed" our depth. What destroyed our depth back then was us trying to recruit to the number 85 on signing day. We would inevitably fall a little short and be around 83-84. Then Spring and Summer transfers, injuries and other attrition would further take its toll leaving us in the mid 70's by August (when you have to be at 85). They big thing that has changed since the early Kelly years is our willingness to "oversign" and use the natural attrition to get down to 85 by August.

 

[AllTimeIrish]

That's not true at all. Counting Vanderdoes, we only signed 8 5* kids (Rivals).

Jaylon Smith - All American
Quentin Nelson - All American
Stephon Tuitt - 3rd all time sack leader
Max Redfield - Played 3 years. Disappointment
Isaq Williams - Played 3 years. Disappointment
Gunner Kiel - Transfer
Greg Bryant - Transfer
Vanderdoes - Never came

No way that losing three kids over a five year period "destroyed" our depth. What destroyed our depth back then was us trying to recruit to the number 85 on signing day. We would inevitably fall a little short and be around 83-84. Then Spring and Summer transfers, injuries and other attrition would further take its toll leaving us in the mid 70's by August (when you have to be at 85). They big thing that has changed since the early Kelly years is our willingness to "oversign" and use the natural attrition to get down to 85 by August.

So the majority of those were busts, while 3 were good. And yes it did hurt because we were below scholarship limits AND did not have alternatives as those positions that busted. Kelly admitted to counting too much on his front line prospects and not building depth behind them.

Attrition is a fact of life and you have to over-recruit up front to deal with it. Kelly has admitted to changing his philosophy on this as well, while being honest with the recruits about the situation. Several accepted it and ended up getting their scholies in the end. We are not Bama here in being unscrupulous to our kids, but WE ARE planning the roster turnover much better than before and it shows.

 

[NDRock]

So the majority of those were busts, while 3 were good. And yes it did hurt because we were below scholarship limits AND did not have alternatives as those positions that busted. Kelly admitted to counting too much on his front line prospects and not building depth behind them.

Attrition is a fact of life and you have to over-recruit up front to deal with it. Kelly has admitted to changing his philosophy on this as well, while being honest with the recruits about the situation. Several accepted it and ended up getting their scholies in the end. We are not Bama here in being unscrupulous to our kids, but WE ARE planning the roster turnover much better than before and it shows.

Good? Two All Americans and arguably the best DL of the Kelly era. Those aren't "good" players, those are the type of players you need to win championships. Out of 8 kids we had three elite players, two mediocre and three busts. That's recruiting whether you're talking about 3* kids or 5* kids the difference is the 5* kids have a higher potential to be elite.

Again, losing 3 kids didn't cause holes, under recruiting did.

 

[Wild Bill]

As far as Clemson recruiting goes. The last 5 years they signed 12 5* kids. We signed 0. When we played them it sure seemed like the difference was their 5* QB throwing TDs to the their 5* WRs.

The numbers are a bit deceiving.

2015 they had three and one wasn't on the roster when they won the title last year.

2016 they had one.

2017 they had two and one transferred so he wasn't on the title team.

2018 they had five. Only one was a starter and a big piece to their title. Three were backups with limited roles, one was a redshirt.

So they had five on that title team that contributed. My point isn't to say five stars don't matter. My point is that you don't need a dozen to compete. I don't believe ND can land a dozen but I think they can realistically land one per year and compete for titles. The question is whether or not BK will be the coach that lands them.

 

[NDRock]

The numbers are a bit deceiving.

2015 they had three and one wasn't on the roster when they won the title last year.

2016 they had one.

2017 they had two and one transferred so he wasn't on the title team.

2018 they had five. Only one was a starter and a big piece to their title. Three were backups with limited roles, one was a redshirt.

So they had five on that title team that contributed. My point isn't to say five stars don't matter. My point is that you don't need a dozen to compete. I don't believe ND can land a dozen but I think they can realistically land one per year and compete for titles. The question is whether or not BK will be the coach that lands them.

Haven’t looked super close at their whole roster but know Lawrence, Higgins and Ross were all 5* kids on Rivals. Maybe thoseWRs didn’t do much during the regular season but they scored 3/4 touchdowns against us.

I agree that we don’t need a bunch but you have to have some. Both Watson and Lawrence were 5* kids. QB can be the difference for sure.

 

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

The numbers are a bit deceiving.

2015 they had three and one wasn't on the roster when they won the title last year.

2016 they had one.

2017 they had two and one transferred so he wasn't on the title team.

2018 they had five. Only one was a starter and a big piece to their title. Three were backups with limited roles, one was a redshirt.

So they had five on that title team that contributed. My point isn't to say five stars don't matter. My point is that you don't need a dozen to compete. I don't believe ND can land a dozen but I think they can realistically land one per year and compete for titles. The question is whether or not BK will be the coach that lands them.

That's 11 in a 4 year period, idk if BK has recruited 11 in 10 years.

Idk that they necessarily have to have the 5*, Top 30, guys to compete. I think just as many guys in the 40-100 range pan out, and we seem to land them as well as any team in the country.

WHERE these guys are recruited (the 5* elites) is more important than how many. An elite QB seems to basically be a prerequisite to compete seriously for a NC. A guy at DE like Chase Young is obviously a game changer. Guys like Etienne and Swift are invaluable chess pieces, as are guys like Higgins/Ross that killed us in the Semis. Basically, if you can get elite skill position players, and throw in enough elite-ish guys everywhere else, then I think there's no doubt we could compete for a Natty.

Under BK? Idk, that's debatable obviously. I wish he had more fire and charisma, not like when he got to ND cuz that just seemed like an angry Irish drunkard, but passionate fire like Dabo has.

 

[Prof K]

This illustrates why I think the main question should be -- "Can BK recruit elite talent to South Bend?"

If you think he can, then you keep him. If you think he's only capable of recruiting classes in the teens, then your ceiling is Washington/Oklahoma.

I think we're seeing more of that with Tyree and Johnson. I have no concern about recruiting defense, Clark Lea has those guys ready to play 90%+ of the time and we've lost two stud WDEs this year only to have a 3rd stringer come in and kick ass. We are deep on that side of the ball and only have a few positions that need "talent" upgrades to compete with the best.

I believe the real question is "can Notre Dame recruit elite talent to South Bend." While BK may not be the very best recruiter, there are only so many 5 Star talents that qualify for Notre Dame athletically. Even more troubling, most of the kids in that category are told "the NFL is for you" so why pursue an extremely demanding undergraduate degree for four years? An Urban Meyer might find ways to get more of these kids admitted, but can it last long enough to win another NC? Irrespective of head coach, the problem will persist.

 

[irishandy]

The sun is still going to rise, BK is still our coach, and this thread....why?!

 

[Dizzyphil]

I know I’m going to open a can of worms here but, I would love to see a chart of 5 star recruits academic score card. I’m only using Alabama as a reference also.... no hits on them are meant.

Eligibility to be a student athlete:

Alabama - https://rolltide.com/sports/2016/6/10/sports-w-gym-spec-rel-recruiting-info-html.aspx
ND - https://www3.nd.edu/~ncaacomp/Initial_Eligibility_Standards.shtml

Just as reference too, to see if it is an ‘academic’ reason why some 5 star recruits are hit or miss with the Irish.

Are athletes going to ND to ‘play’ school or football...

 

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

I know I’m going to open a can of worms here but, I would love to see a chart of 5 star recruits academic score card. I’m only using Alabama as a reference also.... no hits on them are meant.

Eligibility to be a student athlete:

Alabama - https://rolltide.com/sports/2016/6/10/sports-w-gym-spec-rel-recruiting-info-html.aspx
ND - https://www3.nd.edu/~ncaacomp/Initial_Eligibility_Standards.shtml

Just as reference too, to see if it is an ‘academic’ reason why some 5 star recruits are hit or miss with the Irish.

Are athletes going to ND to ‘play’ school or football...

Am I just reading that wrong, or are the requirements pretty close to the same for Bama and ND?

 

[Prof K]

Am I just reading that wrong, or are the requirements pretty close to the same for Bama and ND?

Yes...and no. The minimum admission combinations will look similar, but the students you compete with at Notre Dame are very different. The typical Notre Dame admission is a 33 ACT score: https://www.prepscholar.com/act/s/colleges/Notre-Dame-ACT-scores-GPA Conversely, the average Alabama ACT is a 27: https://www.prepscholar.com/sat/s/colleges/University-of-Alabama-admission-requirements That is a world of difference. Basically, your bottom Notre Dame students are near the top of the Alabama scoring system. Put differently, Notre Dame has higher applicants and admits less than 19% of those applicants. Conversely, Alabama has lower applicants and admits more than 52% of them. From the perspective of an academic VP, which I am, the one is a very exclusive school, the other is one at which your average student should be find if they work hard. At to that the fact that Notre Dame doesn't have special majors and classes for athletes, and you are in two very different academic worlds.

 

[Dizzyphil]

Am I just reading that wrong, or are the requirements pretty close to the same for Bama and ND?

Yes...and no. The minimum admission combinations will look similar, but the students you compete with at Notre Dame are very different. The typical Notre Dame admission is a 33 ACT score: https://www.prepscholar.com/act/s/colleges/Notre-Dame-ACT-scores-GPA Conversely, the average Alabama ACT is a 27: https://www.prepscholar.com/sat/s/colleges/University-of-Alabama-admission-requirements That is a world of difference. Basically, your bottom Notre Dame students are near the top of the Alabama scoring system. Put differently, Notre Dame has higher applicants and admits less than 19% of those applicants. Conversely, Alabama has lower applicants and admits more than 52% of them. From the perspective of an academic VP, which I am, the one is a very exclusive school, the other is one at which your average student should be find if they work hard. At to that the fact that Notre Dame doesn't have special majors and classes for athletes, and you are in two very different academic worlds.

So, with this being said, what percentage of 5 star recruits are actually eligible to be targeted as a candidate at ND? I’m not going to buy into location (weather specifically) because Meechicken, O$U, M$U, P$U are all cold weather schools as well.

 

[IrishLax]

I believe the real question is "can Notre Dame recruit elite talent to South Bend." While BK may not be the very best recruiter, there are only so many 5 Star talents that qualify for Notre Dame athletically. Even more troubling, most of the kids in that category are told "the NFL is for you" so why pursue an extremely demanding undergraduate degree for four years? An Urban Meyer might find ways to get more of these kids admitted, but can it last long enough to win another NC? Irrespective of head coach, the problem will persist.

My counterpoint would be that Charlie Weis signed some top rated on the back of 9/10 win seasons and his NFL pedigree. I believe ND can sign a lot more highly rated players than they currently do.

 

[EddytoNow]

I may have underestimated this team's resolve after the Michigan no-show. In seasons past under Kelly, there was normally a drop-off in performance during the latter third of the season. Write it off to poor coaching, a poor strength and conditioning program, a lack of depth, too many injuries, or whatever. But Kelly's teams seemed to start fairly well and then fade during the final month or so of the season. After the Michigan game, I expected this team to do the same.

However, in contrast to seasons past this team has shown some resolve during the month of November. I still don't think we're ready to compete with Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, and the like, but it has been nice watching the determination of this team over the last few games. 11-2 is still an achievable goal. Hopefully, the team is not looking past Stanford. You can't get to 11-2 without getting to 10-2 first.

 

[Dizzyphil]

My counterpoint would be that Charlie Weis signed some top rated on the back of 9/10 win seasons and his NFL pedigree. I believe ND can sign a lot more highly rated players than they currently do.

I agree. The problem with Weis was his arrogance and complicated playbook. Talk about pulling guards and tackles..... geesh

 

[NorthDakota]

I'm assuming Alabama/Auburn has some very high performing students simply because there is likely no reason for them to go outside the state other than maybe Vanderbilt?

We had the same thing back home. My friend from school here was giving me grief about going to North Dakota State vs the B1G school she went to. Had to inform her that I could have went anywhere else and it wouldnt have done a damn thing extra for me at home. I had a classmate turn down Notre Dame for a similar reason.

Did find the conversation a bit amusing since we ended up in the same law school now so all that money dumped into an out of state B1G undergraduate education and still didnt end up at a better school than me haha

 

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

Yes...and no. The minimum admission combinations will look similar, but the students you compete with at Notre Dame are very different. The typical Notre Dame admission is a 33 ACT score: https://www.prepscholar.com/act/s/colleges/Notre-Dame-ACT-scores-GPA Conversely, the average Alabama ACT is a 27: https://www.prepscholar.com/sat/s/colleges/University-of-Alabama-admission-requirements That is a world of difference. Basically, your bottom Notre Dame students are near the top of the Alabama scoring system. Put differently, Notre Dame has higher applicants and admits less than 19% of those applicants. Conversely, Alabama has lower applicants and admits more than 52% of them. From the perspective of an academic VP, which I am, the one is a very exclusive school, the other is one at which your average student should be find if they work hard. At to that the fact that Notre Dame doesn't have special majors and classes for athletes, and you are in two very different academic worlds.

So, it's not all in the admissions? The larger portion of the problem is what happens when they get on campus, and inside the classrooms? I don't understand why ND can't just dumb things down for guys that have no interest in a degree, but rather a jumping point to the NFL. Nobody's saying just let them skip their classes, but do they have to enroll in "Astrophysics and the Understanding of Black Matter"?

 

[Dizzyphil]

So, it's not all in the admissions? The larger portion of the problem is what happens when they get on campus, and inside the classrooms? I don't understand why ND can't just dumb things down for guys that have no interest in a degree, but rather a jumping point to the NFL. Nobody's saying just let them skip their classes, but do they have to enroll in "Astrophysics and the Understanding of Black Matter"?

I understand where you are going but, ND is based on ‘Academic Excellence’.... not ‘Sporting Excellence’. When you get time, check out ‘Prop 48’. If not for that, 1988 may have not happened. I’m old enough to know and remember that policy. 1or 2 years later, Tony Rice is QB somewhere else.

 

[Prof K]

I understand where you are going but, ND is based on ‘Academic Excellence’.... not ‘Sporting Excellence’. When you get time, check out ‘Prop 48’. If not for that, 1988 may have not happened. I’m old enough to know and remember that policy. 1or 2 years later, Tony Rice is QB somewhere else.

An interesting book called "An American Priest" by Fr. Bill Muschamp, CSC, tells the story of how Fr. Theodore Hesburgh built Notre Dame into an elite university. While Hesburgh wanted the athletic teams to win, he was worried that Notre Dame could become another big football factory. He wanted it to be an elite academically competitive schools modelled more on Harvard than Michigan. This has always led to a prohibition on separate athletic majors, isolated dorms, etc.... For better or worse, that has been the Notre Dame way. Could it change under another coach and another president? Yes, but I would not bet on it happening soon.

 

[Dizzyphil]

An interesting book called "An American Priest" by Fr. Bill Muschamp, CSC, tells the story of how Fr. Theodore Hesburgh built Notre Dame into an elite university. While Hesburgh wanted the athletic teams to win, he was worried that Notre Dame could become another big football factory. He wanted it to be an elite academically competitive schools modelled more on Harvard than Michigan. This has always led to a prohibition on separate athletic majors, isolated dorms, etc.... For better or worse, that has been the Notre Dame way. Could it change under another coach and another president? Yes, but I would not bet on it happening soon.

another good read is ‘Talking Irish’ by Steve Delsohn

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

I agree. The problem with Weis was his arrogance and complicated playbook. Talk about pulling guards and tackles..... geesh

Weis was humbled after that 3-9 year. Most of that offense took their lumps in 2007 and 2008 because they were all freshmen and sophomores. In Weis' last year, 2009, it was a top ten offense nationally.

The piss poor defense cost him his job in 2009.

 

[ickythump1225]

Haven’t looked super close at their whole roster but know Lawrence, Higgins and Ross were all 5* kids on Rivals. Maybe thoseWRs didn’t do much during the regular season but they scored 3/4 touchdowns against us.

I agree that we don’t need a bunch but you have to have some. Both Watson and Lawrence were 5* kids. QB can be the difference for sure.

I think QB is a position where you get the most juice for your squeeze.