Brian Kelly Revisited (RIP BOZO)

[NDRock]

I wouldn't say "pipe dream" but I don't really see ND ever winning a NC under the playoff system. We had our shot in the BCS era would you could luck into playing a team like KSU or whatever. Now you're going to have to go through one of OSU, Clemson, Alabama, UGA, Oklahoma, etc. And then if you do that, you're going to have to through one of OSU, Clemson, Alabama, UGA, Oklahoma, etc.

ND is good enough to pull off the upset once. Two times in a row? Don't see it happening. Especially not with BK is who is a very good, but not great/elite coach. The last 5 years are more or less our ceiling. Knocking on the door but never let in.

Just curious, during the Kelly era what year do you think an elite coach would have won a national championship? If Saban or Dabo had the exact same roster talent as BK do you think we would have won a championship in 2012? 2015? 2018?

Obviously recruiting is on the head coach (and development) and that is a huge part of the job. Would an elite coach just develop the talent better? I just can't see many coaches having multiple 12-0 seasons with ND's rosters the last ten years. I also think BK would win championships if he had Bama's roster the past 10 years. Who knows?

 

[stlnd01]

Just curious, during the Kelly era what year do you think an elite coach would have won a national championship? If Saban or Dabo had the exact same roster talent as BK do you think we would have won a championship in 2012? 2015? 2018?

Obviously recruiting is on the head coach (and development) and that is a huge part of the job. Would an elite coach just develop the talent better? I just can't see many coaches having multiple 12-0 seasons with ND's rosters the last ten years. I also think BK would win championships if he had Bama's roster the past 10 years. Who knows?

That's an interesting question but, even leaving recruiting and talent aside, there are so many unprovable could'ves and would'ves there. You could say:

- An "elite" coach would have had the team better prepared and game planned for Alabama in 2012 and maybe we win that game despite the talent gap.

- An "elite" coach would never have hired BVG and our defense in 2015 would have been good enough to match the one time we've had a really good offense under Kelly.

- An "elite" coach would have developed Brandon Wimbush to his God-given potential and in 2018 we have a QB capable of moving the ball against Clemson instead of a three-star with a ceiling.

Or not. Who knows. Maybe an "elite" coach flames out in a morass of academic/disciplinary challenges or wilts under the endless outside pressures that come with our job. Kelly certainly wrestled with both at various times but seems to have figured out the right balance to win ~10 games a year and be consistently in the playoff hunt.

Point being if you think Brian Kelly's not good enough to win a championship, there's evidence to back up your claim. If - like me - you think he's a pretty damn good Notre Dame football coach for this moment in time, there's plenty evidence of that, too.

That is why this thread will never die.

 

[GATTACA!]

That's an interesting question but, even leaving recruiting and talent aside, there are so many unprovable could'ves and would'ves there. You could say:

- An "elite" coach would have had the team better prepared and game planned for Alabama in 2012 and maybe we win that game despite the talent gap.

- An "elite" coach would never have hired BVG and our defense in 2015 would have been good enough to match the one time we've had a really good offense under Kelly.

- An "elite" coach would have developed Brandon Wimbush to his God-given potential and in 2018 we have a QB capable of moving the ball against Clemson instead of a three-star with a ceiling.

Or not. Who knows. Maybe an "elite" coach flames out in a morass of academic/disciplinary challenges or wilts under the endless outside pressures that come with our job. Kelly certainly wrestled with both at various times but seems to have figured out the right balance to win ~10 games a year and be consistently in the playoff hunt.

Point being if you think Brian Kelly's not good enough to win a championship, there's evidence to back up your claim. If - like me - you think he's a pretty damn good Notre Dame football coach for this moment in time, there's plenty evidence of that, too.

That is why this thread will never die.

No one could have won that game against Alabama in 2012. We might as well have been playing a different sport.

 

[NDRock]

That's an interesting question but, even leaving recruiting and talent aside, there are so many unprovable could'ves and would'ves there. You could say:

- An "elite" coach would have had the team better prepared and game planned for Alabama in 2012 and maybe we win that game despite the talent gap.

- An "elite" coach would never have hired BVG and our defense in 2015 would have been good enough to match the one time we've had a really good offense under Kelly.

- An "elite" coach would have developed Brandon Wimbush to his God-given potential and in 2018 we have a QB capable of moving the ball against Clemson instead of a three-star with a ceiling.

Or not. Who knows. Maybe an "elite" coach flames out in a morass of academic/disciplinary challenges or wilts under the endless outside pressures that come with our job. Kelly certainly wrestled with both at various times but seems to have figured out the right balance to win ~10 games a year and be consistently in the playoff hunt.

Point being if you think Brian Kelly's not good enough to win a championship, there's evidence to back up your claim. If - like me - you think he's a pretty damn good Notre Dame football coach for this moment in time, there's plenty evidence of that, too.

That is why this thread will never die.

True. I just find it interesting. I think some people just gloss over the fact Kelly has had three 12-0 seasons since 2009. That’s pretty damn tough. He’s obviously not perfect but no way he is an average coach like some on here claim. Saban sure didn’t seem elite when he was at MSU or in the NFL. Part of me wishes Kelly would go to an FSU type school just to see how he would do. I personally think he would have thrived in a more football factory environment.

 

[Dizzyphil]

No one could have won that game against Alabama in 2012. We might as well have been playing a different sport.

If Murray throws to the end-zone instead of the freaking 5 yard line knowing good and well they had 4, 5 or 6 seconds left with no time-outs, the Irish would have been playing GA for the NC.


But, coulda, woulda, shoulda ....



I believe the Irish would have matched up better against GA that year. But you're right, Irish was a totally different team in that game than that I had watched earlier in the year..... (Coaching, play-calling )

 

[dad4aa]

If Murray throws to the end-zone instead of the freaking 5 yard line knowing good and well they had 4, 5 or 6 seconds left with no time-outs, the Irish would have been playing GA for the NC.


But, coulda, woulda, shoulda ....



I believe the Irish would have matched up better against GA that year. But you're right, Irish was a totally different team in that game than that I had watched earlier in the year..... (Coaching, play-calling )

I thought that was the year we would have played Kansas State if they didn’t blow there last game?

 

[stlnd01]

I thought that was the year we would have played Kansas State if they didn’t blow there last game?

That too. Could've played K State if they'd won. Could've played Georgia if they'd beaten Bama in the (epic) SEC Championship game.
And would have had a better shot at winning the national championship against either of them for reasons that have nothing to do with how "elite" BK is or is not.

 

[Dizzyphil]

I thought that was the year we would have played Kansas State if they didn’t blow there last game?

They lost to Baylor - right? like two weeks before the Bama/GA game??



I'm over 50.... short-term is coming on.... have to remind me - you could be right... either way, Irish still match up better - hell, anyone would have matched up better than Bama....

 

[Dizzyphil]

That too. Could've played K State if they'd won. Could've played Georgia if they'd beaten Bama in the (epic) SEC Championship game.
And would have had a better shot at winning the national championship against either of them for reasons that have nothing to do with how "elite" BK is or is not.

I get it .... I was thinking strategically against a different team than Bama.

 

[GATTACA!]

That too. Could've played K State if they'd won. Could've played Georgia if they'd beaten Bama in the (epic) SEC Championship game.
And would have had a better shot at winning the national championship against either of them for reasons that have nothing to do with how "elite" BK is or is not.

We also could have played Oregon had they not lost. Everyone was all excited because both of them losing gave us the #1 spot, but I had a sickening feeling knowing what it really meant.

 

[Irishize]

We also could have played Oregon had they not lost. Everyone was all excited because both of them losing gave us the #1 spot, but I had a sickening feeling knowing what it really meant.

That was a surreal Saturday. I was at the ND game where they woodshedded WF on Senior Day. Then we went to the bar & grill on campus (I can never remember the name) where they had the Baylor/KSU game on one tv & the Stanford/Oregon game on another. By the end of the night both KSU & Oregon lost vaulting ND to #1 in the nation. I still thought there was a chance ND could face one of those two but I should’ve known better.

But back to BK, as great as he’s been at rebuilding the program he still lacks one facet that is key for championship teams. His teams consistently get embarrassed in big road games. An embarrassing loss can happen to even the best of programs. Look at tOSU, Clemson & OU. The difference is those teams still have multiple NC under their belt or in OU’s case, they can usually compete on the national stage when the stakes are highest. ND lays an egg EVERY damn time since 2012 and I have no idea why.

 

[nd_fan]

We could have played Ohio State if they weren’t on NCAA probation that weekend.

 

[Sea Turtle]

If Murray throws to the end-zone instead of the freaking 5 yard line knowing good and well they had 4, 5 or 6 seconds left with no time-outs, the Irish would have been playing GA for the NC.


But, coulda, woulda, shoulda ....



I believe the Irish would have matched up better against GA that year. But you're right, Irish was a totally different team in that game than that I had watched earlier in the year..... (Coaching, play-calling )

Georgia crushes us too that year. The sad reality with the playoff now is that there always going to be 3 teams or so that we just have no chance against and they will be in the playoff every year.

There will never be a champion again that's not absolutely the best team in the country. We are going to have to loosen things up a little like they did for Holtz if we are ever going to even have a chance. We saw what it looks like twice. Alabama and Clemson. It's humiliating.

Unless you think Duke has ruined their academic reputation and that there degrees are worthless now because of their basketball program, I have no problem with this.

 

[PigtownIrish]

But back to BK, as great as he’s been at rebuilding the program he still lacks one facet that is key for championship teams. His teams consistently get embarrassed in big road games. An embarrassing loss can happen to even the best of programs. Look at tOSU, Clemson & OU. The difference is those teams still have multiple NC under their belt or in OU’s case, they can usually compete on the national stage when the stakes are highest. ND lays an egg EVERY damn time since 2012 and I have no idea why.

This. Kelly has done a better job than his predecessors. He has also seemed to fix his early problem of losing to programs we should never lose to (Tulsa, USF, etc.). BUT he is not good enough to win a NC. His offensive scheme fails against elite teams and he is too stubborn to change it. He, personally, does not seem to be much of an asset to recruiting. The whining that we will never win a CFP playoff game because we can’t keep up or cheat like other teams is pretty pathetic. We do have a smaller margin for error than Alabama, Clemson, etc. We need better coaching on offense to perform within that margin. BK simply isn’t it. He’s had ten years and multiple chances to win a game that would show otherwise.

 

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

These stretches of play against inferior competition always mess with my head. It makes me wanna jump back on the BK train, and proclaim Ian Book as the 2020-21 Heisman Trophy winner...but then we play a legit opponent and I'm back at square one.

 

[PigtownIrish]

These stretches of play against inferior competition always mess with my head. It makes me wanna jump back on the BK train, and proclaim Ian Book as the 2020-21 Heisman Trophy winner...but then we play a legit opponent and I'm back at square one.

We are trapped in Swarbrick/BK purgatory lol

 

[ickythump1225]

Just curious, during the Kelly era what year do you think an elite coach would have won a national championship? If Saban or Dabo had the exact same roster talent as BK do you think we would have won a championship in 2012? 2015? 2018?

Obviously recruiting is on the head coach (and development) and that is a huge part of the job. Would an elite coach just develop the talent better? I just can't see many coaches having multiple 12-0 seasons with ND's rosters the last ten years. I also think BK would win championships if he had Bama's roster the past 10 years. Who knows?

I used to believe that what was holding us back was just that we can't recruit the truly great players, but if you go back over the past 5 or 6 years we recruit relatively in the same range as Clemson with a huge disparity in results. I think player development across the board is subpar compared to where it could/should be.

No one was winning that 2012 NCG but we were not at all prepared for that game. We didn't do any real prep work to prepare for that game and it showed. After the game the Alabama players said they knew what we were calling based on our alignments. I mean it's one thing to have a talent gap, it's another thing to put your team behind the eight ball with your scheme too.

Also even after the talent gap closed a bit we still have yet to really win a big game against an elite opponent. Since 2014 we've played: FSU, Clemson, Stanford (2015), OSU (Fiesta Bowl), 2016 is a mulligan, UGA (2017), Miami (team not elite but it was a HUGE game), Clemson (Cotton Bowl), UGA (2019) and we've either been embarrassed or been close but no cigar. An elite coach finds a way to win at least 1 of those games, I mean come on.

I think the last five seasons (2015-now) are kind of ND's ceiling under BK: 10 win seasons consistently, a NY6 bowl game with a double digit loss if it's against an elite/upper tier team, and a potential CFP berth every 5 years or so where we get boat raced.

There are worse fates but that's where we're at IMO.

 

[ickythump1225]

We also could have played Oregon had they not lost. Everyone was all excited because both of them losing gave us the #1 spot, but I had a sickening feeling knowing what it really meant.

I would have loved to play Oregon. I think Oregon could have beat us, but it would have been an interesting clash of styles. But our NC hopes truly died when KSU couldn't beat a bad Baylor team.

 

[ickythump1225]

These stretches of play against inferior competition always mess with my head. It makes me wanna jump back on the BK train, and proclaim Ian Book as the 2020-21 Heisman Trophy winner...but then we play a legit opponent and I'm back at square one.

I won't be fooled again. BK is what he is and Book is what he is. Here's to hoping for a real, legit QB competition coming into next year but we all know Book will be gifted the starting position basically no matter what.

 

[NDRock]

I used to believe that what was holding us back was just that we can't recruit the truly great players, but if you go back over the past 5 or 6 years we recruit relatively in the same range as Clemson with a huge disparity in results. I think player development across the board is subpar compared to where it could/should be.

No one was winning that 2012 NCG but we were not at all prepared for that game. We didn't do any real prep work to prepare for that game and it showed. After the game the Alabama players said they knew what we were calling based on our alignments. I mean it's one thing to have a talent gap, it's another thing to put your team behind the eight ball with your scheme too.

Also even after the talent gap closed a bit we still have yet to really win a big game against an elite opponent. Since 2014 we've played: FSU, Clemson, Stanford (2015), OSU (Fiesta Bowl), 2016 is a mulligan, UGA (2017), Miami (team not elite but it was a HUGE game), Clemson (Cotton Bowl), UGA (2019) and we've either been embarrassed or been close but no cigar. An elite coach finds a way to win at least 1 of those games, I mean come on.

I think the last five seasons (2015-now) are kind of ND's ceiling under BK: 10 win seasons consistently, a NY6 bowl game with a double digit loss if it's against an elite/upper tier team, and a potential CFP berth every 5 years or so where we get boat raced.

There are worse fates but that's where we're at IMO.

Agree with a lot of that. I will say I find it funny that the only big games are the ones we lose. I'll just take 2017 where you pointed out 2 of our losses. Why is the Miami game huge but the USC game not (USC finished 12th and won the PAC-12)? Why was the Georgia game huge and the win over LSU not? Georgia was 15th when we played them, LSU was 16th. We also beat a top 25 NC State.

As far as Clemson recruiting goes. The last 5 years they signed 12 5* kids. We signed 0. When we played them it sure seemed like the difference was their 5* QB throwing TDs to the their 5* WRs.

I just think the only way to beat elite talent is with other elite talent. Nobody is else is doing it, not sure why Kelly would be any different. We want to win championships we need elite players.

 

[ickythump1225]

Agree with a lot of that. I will say I find it funny that the only big games are the ones we lose. I'll just take 2017 where you pointed out 2 of our losses. Why is the Miami game huge but the USC game not (USC finished 12th and won the PAC-12)? Why was the Georgia game huge and the win over LSU not? Georgia was 15th when we played them, LSU was 16th. We also beat a top 25 NC State.

Either way in our NY6/BCS type games under BK we're 0-3 and have been outscored 116-45. 28 of those points came in one game against OSU, the weakest of the 3 teams we played. So splitting hairs over the importance of regular season games, which can be subjective, in the no doubt about it big time games BK has sh!t his pants in an embarrassing fashion.

 

[ickythump1225]

For comparison since the advent of the NY6 format the following teams have managed a NY6 bowl win:
-TCU
-Boise St
-Georgia Tech
-Houston
-Stanford
-Wisconsin (2x)
-Penn St
-UCF

I mean is it so wild to question BK's elite status considering the likes of Houston and Georgia Tech could win a NY6 bowl when we're 0-2 in the current format at a combined score of 74-31?

 

[fightingirish26]

Agree with a lot of that. I will say I find it funny that the only big games are the ones we lose. I'll just take 2017 where you pointed out 2 of our losses. Why is the Miami game huge but the USC game not (USC finished 12th and won the PAC-12)? Why was the Georgia game huge and the win over LSU not? Georgia was 15th when we played them, LSU was 16th. We also beat a top 25 NC State.

As far as Clemson recruiting goes. The last 5 years they signed 12 5* kids. We signed 0. When we played them it sure seemed like the difference was their 5* QB throwing TDs to the their 5* WRs.

I just think the only way to beat elite talent is with other elite talent. Nobody is else is doing it, not sure why Kelly would be any different. We want to win championships we need elite players.

Bingo. Criticisms of Kelly are valid, and the Michigan loss is unforgivable. But if we can keep Clark Lea, and have an offense with guys like Buchner, Tyree, Jordan Johnson, and Michael Mayer, are we not closing the gap? I'm not ready to hit reset, especially with how badly it could backfire.

 

[ickythump1225]

Bingo. Criticisms of Kelly are valid, and the Michigan loss is unforgivable. But if we can keep Clark Lea, and have an offense with guys like Buchner, Tyree, Jordan Johnson, and Michael Mayer, are we not closing the gap? I'm not ready to hit reset, especially with how badly it could backfire.

But are 12 5*s worth a 4 TD difference? If you look at the class rankings and averages there's not that much of a gap. A lot of it lays at the feet of the coaching and development.

 

[NDRock]

For comparison since the advent of the NY6 format the following teams have managed a NY6 bowl win:
-TCU
-Boise St
-Georgia Tech
-Houston
-Stanford
-Wisconsin (2x)
-Penn St
-UCF

I mean is it so wild to question BK's elite status considering the likes of Houston and Georgia Tech could win a NY6 bowl when we're 0-2 in the current format at a combined score of 74-31?

We also played last year's national champion and the 2015 Ohio State team who went 12-1 and had 12 players drafted in the first 4 rounds next NFL draft including 5 first rounders.

The only point I really disagree with you is the of effect recruiting plays. We are not winning a NC with our current recruiting. It's not just a BK thing, nobody who recruits to our level wins a NC. The fact that we went 12-0 and made the playoffs with zero 5* players is very impressive but we aren't going to beat teams like Clemson and Bama with our 3* and 4* kids.

I don't care who the coach is, if we don't land elite talent we won't win a NC. Simple as that.

 

[fightingirish26]

But are 12 5*s worth a 4 TD difference?

Maybe?

If you look at the class rankings and averages there's not that much of a gap. A lot of it lays at the feet of the coaching and development.

We couldn't move the ball. It looked obvious that we were lacking elite offensive talent. So we went out and landed some elite offensive talent. Hopefully it pays off.

Our defense actually played well. Donte Vaughn got burned a couple times when Julian Love was injured. (Who, btw, the staff developed from a 3* into an All-American)

 

[NDRock]

But are 12 5*s worth a 4 TD difference? If you look at the class rankings and averages there's not that much of a gap. A lot of it lays at the feet of the coaching and development.

I don't know but to put it into perspective, here are the last 12 5* kids we signed. Would we be better with them on the roster?

Jimmy Clausen
Kyle Rudolph
Dayne Crist
Michael Floyd
Manti Teo
Isaq Williams
Stephon Tuitt
Gunner Kiel
Jaylon Smith
Greg Bryant
Max Redfield
Q. Nelson

Had to go back to 2007 on Rivals to get to 12. Teams like Bama, Georgia, Clemson get 3-5 of this type of talent every year. Yes, it matters, IMO. We're losing the NC race every February.

 

[dad4aa]

Agree with a lot of that. I will say I find it funny that the only big games are the ones we lose. I'll just take 2017 where you pointed out 2 of our losses. Why is the Miami game huge but the USC game not (USC finished 12th and won the PAC-12)? Why was the Georgia game huge and the win over LSU not? Georgia was 15th when we played them, LSU was 16th. We also beat a top 25 NC State.

As far as Clemson recruiting goes. The last 5 years they signed 12 5* kids. We signed 0. When we played them it sure seemed like the difference was their 5* QB throwing TDs to the their 5* WRs.

I just think the only way to beat elite talent is with other elite talent. Nobody is else is doing it, not sure why Kelly would be any different. We want to win championships we need elite players.

Because facts mean nothing unless they are skewed to push an agenda/back a stance

 

[Circa]

Until the NCAA decides to create an equal playing field with; Officiating, Recruiting, Pay for Play. (shit, just watch the old movie about Michael with Ole Miss)..... We won't understand the fight we've been fighting.
ESPN has too much grease in the pan for us to get anywhere.

 

[ickythump1225]

We couldn't move the ball. It looked obvious that we were lacking elite offensive talent. So we went out and landed some elite offensive talent. Hopefully it pays off.

Okay but we're 10 years into BK's tenure, not 2 years in. He fully owns the state of recruiting and every facet of the program. That it took him 10 years to figure out he should try and recruit elite offensive talent is pretty jarring.