BCS Rankings: 2012

[BobD]

It's pretty simple. We need to trounce our next three opponents and beat USC as well, or better than we did Oklahoma. Close games in any of the next three will hurt us. We also need to hope that KSU, Ala, and Oregon slip up somehow.

Oregon thrashing USC = very bad for us.

 

[FLDomer]

Yep I believe this is true. We must hope USC and Stanford keep it close.



I am very confident we will finish ahead of K State if we both win out. It is Oregon that I am worried about.

I have a feeling Oregon gets knocked off in Corvallis...just a feeling.

 

[Rocky2820]

It's pretty simple. We need to trounce our next three opponents and beat USC as well, or better than we did Oklahoma. Close games in any of the next three will hurt us. We also need to hope that KSU, Ala, and Oregon slip up somehow.

Oregon thrashing USC = very bad for us.

Agree, and Oregon thrashing Stanford in a couple weeks would also be bad.

 

[koonja]

Just relax and let this play out. It's VERY likely that Oregon, and/or Alabama, and/or KSU lose a game.

If ND wins out, I'll bet every v-buck they end up in the championship. Any takers?

Alabama remaining schedule:

@LSU. I'd give them 66% chance of winning.
Vs. #16 Texas A&M. 75% chance of winning.
Vs. Western Kentucky. 99% chance of winning.
Vs. Auburn. 95% chance of winning.
SEC championship 65% chance of winning.
That's ~ 30% chance of remaining undefeated.

Oregon remaining schedule:

@USC (7 pt favs) 70% chance of winning.
@ California 95% chance of winning.
Vs. Stanford 75% chance of winning.
@Oregon State 75% chance of winning.
PAC championship game 70% chance of winning.
That's ~26% chance of staying undefeated.

KSU remaining schedule:

Vs. Oklahoma State 65% chance of winning.
@ TCU 75% chance of winning.
@ Baylor 70% chance of winning.
@ Texas 75% chance of winning.
That's ~ 24% chance of staying undefeated.

 

[IrishLax]

Yeah, from a BCS standpoint we just don't stack up well with Oregon. We're only .001 ahead of them. Aside from our common opponent USC, two of their three remaining opponents are ranked and none of ours are ranked. Given that they're already #2 in the polls, the computers are going to tilt in their favor over the rest of the season. Bottom line is that we need AT LEAST Alabama or Oregon to lose to have a shot at the NC game. And it would certainly help if we won convincingly these next three weeks to improve chances of passing KSTATE.

All that said, the chances of all four teams running the table are slim.

Only other scenario is if Oregon were to play Stanford and USC very, very close and then we go out and pummel USC 70-7... that could do it.

Oregon's "statement wins" so far are just running up the score on the worst teams in CFB. If they look very unimpressive over the next stretch of games and then just destroy everyone including common opponent USC, it's hard to imagine us not having at least a very good chance of jumping them... especially if they struggled with USC twice.

But that scenario is very improbable, so more likely than not we them to drop a game like you said. There is no way that if we keep winning without style points that we'd have a prayer of getting in over Oregon at the end of the season.

 

[BobD]

I think the uni's have helped Oregon.

 

[Irish Houstonian]

I think the computers will still like us more than Oregon, in the end. Oregon may still jump us with the polling, but ND did all it can do.

Keep in mind, OregonState will lose to either Cal or Ariz State next, lowering the conference SOS.

And Oklahoma will go on to beat OkSt, WVU, Baylor and TCU, giving it a pretty good standing in the end and a quality win.

So Oregon's 1st and 2nd best wins (USC and Stanford) will be our 2nd and 3rd best.

(The irony of it all, is that the ONE year we need the Big10 to be a strong conference, they poop the bed...)

 

[woolybug25]

Interesting note from Gene Wojowhozit:

Ask me what about algorithms and I'll tell you that was the band Annie Lennox used to sing in.

Turns out it was the Eurythmics, but you get the point. Developing algorithms is what ESPN's "College GameDay" research guru Chris Fallica does for fun this time of year. Fallica really needs to get a life.

Anyway, his latest formula calculates the chances of Bama, K-State, Oregon and Notre Dame entering the bowl season with undefeated records:

Notre Dame: 62.2 percent (remaining schedule: Pittsburgh, at Boston College, Wake Forest, at USC)

Alabama: 57.1 (at LSU, Texas A&M, FCS-member Western Carolina, playing-like-an-FCS-member Auburn)

K-State: 43.0 (Oklahoma State, at TCU, at Baylor, Texas)

Oregon: 18.9 (at USC, at Cal, Stanford, at Oregon State)

And the chances that all four of those teams go unbeaten: less than 2.9 percent.

We just need to worry about us. Everything else will fall into place.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

4 undefeated AQ teams at the end of the year would be unprecedented. The football gods can't be punishing us for not having a playoff in place, so it will work out.

 

[koonja]

Guys, we should be focusing on Pittsburgh!


Current betting odds to win the championship:

Alabama 1/1

KSU 3.5/1

Oregon 4.5/1

Notre Dame 6/1

LSU 12/1

LSU kind of scares me, because they're less than 50% likely to beat Bama, so theoretically, if they DID beat Bama, they'd be better than 6/1 odds, which is where we are. But I still think there's no way in hell a 1-loss SEC team plays over an undefeated ND team.

Source: http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/football-futures.jsp

 

[woolybug25]

Guys, we should be focusing on Pittsburgh!


Current betting odds to win the championship:

Alabama 1/1

KSU 3.5/1

Oregon 4.5/1

Notre Dame 6/1

LSU 12/1

What's funny about those odds are that they are heavily biased towards what people think would happen if all teams went undefeated, which is extremely unlikely.

I like 6/1 odds on ND.

 

[BGIF]

What's funny about those odds are that they are heavily biased towards what people think would happen if all teams went undefeated, which is extremely unlikely.

I like 6/1 odds on ND.

I'd like them better if the "heavily biased" Coaches and Harris PollS weren't making the decision.

 

[Chamellion]

Guys, we should be focusing on Pittsburgh!


Current betting odds to win the championship:

Alabama 1/1

KSU 3.5/1

Oregon 4.5/1

Notre Dame 6/1

LSU 12/1

LSU kind of scares me, because they're less than 50% likely to beat Bama, so theoretically, if they DID beat Bama, they'd be better than 6/1 odds, which is where we are. But I still think there's no way in hell a 1-loss SEC team plays over an undefeated ND team.

Source: http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/football-futures.jsp

If Bama loses our odds go up as well.

 

[BGIF]

Collin Klein is a badass. I wouldn't challenge that. I still say he is the one in the drivers seat with the QB friendly award.

So, he's a badass. So, he's the Heisman candidate du jour.


Golson STILL put up more Total Yds against OU than your badass, didn't he?



Quote:
Originally Posted by Patulski

Everett Golson accounted for more Total Yards passing and rushing against Oklahoma than Colin Klein did.

 

[PraetorianND]

Guys, we should be focusing on Pittsburgh!


Current betting odds to win the championship:

Alabama 1/1

KSU 3.5/1

Oregon 4.5/1

Notre Dame 6/1

LSU 12/1

LSU kind of scares me, because they're less than 50% likely to beat Bama, so theoretically, if they DID beat Bama, they'd be better than 6/1 odds, which is where we are. But I still think there's no way in hell a 1-loss SEC team plays over an undefeated ND team.

Source: http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/football-futures.jsp

Won't happen. As long as we stay undefeated, even if we sneak by Pitt, Wake, and/or BC, we're not getting jumped. Don't forget LSU barely beat Auburn and Towson (wtf). Also, our schedule is very difficult even with some of our good wins being diluted. It will also help us if Florida keeps losing because it makes LSU's loss to them look worse.

 

[brandonnash]

Guys, we should be focusing on Pittsburgh!


Current betting odds to win the championship:

Alabama 1/1

KSU 3.5/1

Oregon 4.5/1

Notre Dame 6/1

LSU 12/1

LSU kind of scares me, because they're less than 50% likely to beat Bama, so theoretically, if they DID beat Bama, they'd be better than 6/1 odds, which is where we are. But I still think there's no way in hell a 1-loss SEC team plays over an undefeated ND team.

Source: http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/football-futures.jsp

Bama is playing at LSU on a Saturday night. That is quite possibly the most hostile environment in college football. Lots of very drunk very loud southern folk. I give them a better shot than most at taking that game.

 

[koonja]

^.

As someone said earlier, bad things happen to good teams at death valley.

 

[Irish Houstonian]

LSU is going to need some momentum or something though. Mettenberger is 12th in the SEC in passing...It'll be close but you gotta think Alabama wins this one.

 

[ARALOU]

Spurrier said on Dan Patrick earlier that Alabama could beat some NFL teams. I bet Dolphin fan disagrees.

 

[Riddickulous]

Spurrier said on Dan Patrick earlier that Alabama could beat some NFL teams. I bet Dolphin fan disagrees.

No college football team would be able to handle even the worst NFL team. Alabama is no exception.

 

[ARALOU]

I agree.... I just thought it was funny

 

[PraetorianND]

No college football team would be able to handle even the worst NFL team. Alabama is no exception.

They did it in Hockey!

 

[peoriairish]

Didn't know where to put this... so it's going here. Stolen from Facebook.

IT'S ALIVE!!!!

 

[Irish Houstonian]

Spurrier said on Dan Patrick earlier that Alabama could beat some NFL teams. I bet Dolphin fan disagrees.

With the exception of the 76' Buccaneers, that's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. (And Spurrier should know -- he was on that team...)

 

[NDTH91]

#4 Notre Dame just beat #10 usc on the road to jump from #4 to #2 in the last week of the season ... in the Road to Glory I'm playing on NCAA09 right now.

Just thought it was pretty ironic... and perhaps foreshadowing?

Oh, and our best player just won the heisman...

 

[CTIDANDREW]

#4 Notre Dame just beat #10 usc on the road to jump from #4 to #2 in the last week of the season ... in the Road to Glory I'm playing on NCAA09 right now.

Just thought it was pretty ironic... and perhaps foreshadowing?

Oh, and our best player just won the heisman...

John Goodman

 

[HereComeTheIrish]

John Goodman

Heggie

 

[NDTH91]

John Goodman

Heggie

It was Axe McGavin. Don't you guys know anything?

 

[Me2SouthBend]

From ITI

Friendly reminder: Too early to worry about the BCS | Inside the Irish

 

[BGIF]

From ITI

Friendly reminder: Too early to worry about the BCS | Inside the Irish

Third in the BCS Standings. Fourth in the Coaches’ Poll. Strong with the computers. Week with the pollsters

Weak in, weak out.

I hate spellcheckers ...


(but like dshans!)