I think it's the same story all year for ND: if the Irish can run and stop the run, they give themselves a good shot to win.
Exactly. There's 2 factors
1) Who wins the line of scrimmage
2) How Golson performs
Having Manti dissolves a lot of the other variables that most every other team in the country would face. Having done it all year, Manti anchoring the defense shores up a lot of the big yardage plays, like broken tackles gone for 25 yards, the garbage short passes for big gains etc that doomed Georgia in the SEC title game.
The way that ND has won, particularly against their best, toughest, most talented opponents (Stanford, MSU when they were #10, Oklahoma, USC) is by wearing down and dominating their opponents in the 4th quarter. The way these guys are conditioned you almost wonder what Longo has them on. The big goal line stands, the pound and ground to close out games are all the result of both D and O lines superior conditioning, strength and heart.
In the Georgia game you can see how Bama wore down the Georgia front. When it comes to the skill and speed positions Alabama has a clear advantage over ND. But how about the line? Strength unlike speed can be developed. Heart can't be measured. Despite what many who have not watched ND are assuming, it's an open question about which team will win this epic battle. Whoever wins this in the 4th quarter will probably win this game.
Second, Golson is a big ? This kid has heart bigger than his 5'10 (legit) frame but honestly isn't the sharpest tool in the shed. He is a competitor though and has incredible self confidence. Honestly against USC and Oklahoma it almost seemed like he literally didn't know enough to be intimidated. If he can carry that same cocksuredness into the National Title game it will go a long way to help the Irish. As long as he keeps moving, his mobility and improvisation to break down planned defensive schemes will be frustrating for a Bama defense for whom those in-game adjustments by its defense isn't a strength.
On the flip side Saban is a genius at making adjustments before bowl games. Kelly, whom I consider a motivator without parallel in college football for the underachievers/underappreciated... to this point has largely proved his coaching bones for the grind of the regular season, he's a relative noob in terms of winning big bowl games. The largest secondary factor is what kind of fronts and traps Saban shows to Golson and whether Golson will bite, or whether those broken plays actually turn into a Parthian gambit for Alabama.
As for experience. It's a real asset but IMO Bama's advantage in experience is a wash with ND's heart, sense of destiny and the mere presence of Te'o on the field. They're BUILT to be underestimated and go into big games and play with no fear just determination. They've done it repeatedly this year. There's no reason to think that they will not be able to, when they've hit so many emotional highs with composure to this point.
As for the SEC stuff, that's mainly only annoying to people in the South whose teams have to play the conference all year. To Domers and most of the rest of the country it's not a big deal at all.
