I agree with most of what you mentioned, except the last part where you imply that it doesn't make any difference who the HC is. Lincoln Riley did miracles at USC because of his reputation and hard work. He was and is a proven, highly successful head coach. You can say the same about Day and Smart, two high profile coaches with proven track records. These universities aren't your typical NIL players. Freeman may turn out to be a great coach, but as of now, he is an unknown commodity. Even Harbaugh, a high-profile, proven head coach, is having success at Michigan and has the #1 recruiting class so far this year.
The common denominator with these success stories is that they have head coaches that are high profile and proven. Keep everything else the same (NIL, transfer restrictions, BOT etc.) but exchange Riley for Freeman and vice versa and I would expect that the USC and Notre Dame situations would be quite different than they are today.
Who knows, maybe in a few years, Freeman will be regarded as a successful proven head coach and will attract elite players. In the meantime, it is what it is.