Here is the skinny on Dante Moore as far as I know:
1. He absolutely, 100% told ND coaches that he was coming. Call it a silent commitment or whatever, but he told them he was in but wanted to finish his visits before announcing.
2. He started going on his world tour of NIL schools and basically each one offered him a bag thinking he would commit and then he was like "nah I'm good." This is why so many schools were like "cautiously optimistic" and then went to "we aren't getting him, he must be locked in somewhere else (i.e. ND)" as soon as he turned down the money.
3. Many schools saw their only angle to be to neg recruit ND about their new, inexperienced staff and try to convince him to extend the process into the season to see the product on the field. I do not know the extent to which he was taking this to heart, but his public comments after some visits made it seem like he was buying the idea that extending the process could only help him.
4. The bigger issue is that by 1) showing tons of interest in NIL 2) focusing so much of his most recent visit to ND on NIL 3) waffling like crazy about his timeline... unless you are a rube, you have to start considering the potential that you're going to get dropped at the 11th hour for the "highest bidder" even if he did commit to ND.
At this point, I expect him to end up at LSU or Miami. He could end up at ND still, but he's being advised very poorly to end up anywhere that can't just sit on their hands and have their collectives engage in a bidding war. Miami did the right thing taking a contingency plan at QB and saying "well if you want our money, it'll still be here later in the cycle." LSU doing the same thing because they signed a 5-star last year. Those seem like the two schools that won't be turned off by his antics.