'23 FL DE Keon Keeley (Prodigal Son)

[GATTACA!]

Any kid committed to the 4for40 pitch is also smart enough to realize that a multi million dollar NIL deal invested properly is worth more, and more of a sure thing, than an ND degree.

Hope we enjoy our top players getting poached every cycle.

 

[Dale]

Any kid committed to the 4for40 pitch is also smart enough to realize that a multi million dollar NIL deal invested properly is worth more, and more of a sure thing, than an ND degree.

Hope we enjoy our top players getting poached every cycle.

It’s not NIL vs ND degree though. It’s Pay for Play NIL vs ND degree + NIL. That’s NDs pitch when pressed on it.

Mayer and Hamilton’s bank accounts look better than probably most of the pay for play NIL deals.

 

[dublinirish]

It’s not NIL vs ND degree though. It’s Pay for Play NIL vs ND degree + NIL. That’s NDs pitch when pressed on it.

Mayer and Hamilton’s bank accounts look better than probably most of the pay for play NIL deals.

I dont think Mayer is getting 8 mil for wearing tshirts though?

 

[Crazy Balki]

I dont think Mayer is getting 8 mil for wearing tshirts though?

Nobody in CFB is getting 8 mil to wear t-shirts. Bryce Young is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and he isn't earning that much.

 

[AlaskanIrish]

It’s not NIL vs ND degree though. It’s Pay for Play NIL vs ND degree + NIL. That’s NDs pitch when pressed on it.

Mayer and Hamilton’s bank accounts look better than probably most of the pay for play NIL deals.

This. Well said.

 

[Dale]

I dont think Mayer is getting 8 mil for wearing tshirts though?

“Most”

He’s got Rhoback and Levi though which is connected current NFL players deals.

 

[INLaw]

I think a lot of those pay for play are gonna end up holding their dick instead of holding a bag of money. USC griping is already showing that.

 

[Dale]

Also, if he goes to Bama and everything clicks he’s probably making millions no matter what. No doubt about that. He is also by nature more likely to end up like Drew Sanders (5 star in 2020) who got squeezed out by another 5 star in 2020 and 2021. So there is downside risk by joining the factory. Take the pay for play money but never see superstar NIL money.

 

[SoIll]

It’s not NIL vs ND degree though. It’s Pay for Play NIL vs ND degree + NIL. That’s NDs pitch when pressed on it.

Mayer and Hamilton’s bank accounts look better than probably most of the pay for play NIL deals.

Ill take that bet.

 

[TorontoGold]

Also, if he goes to Bama and everything clicks he’s probably making millions no matter what. No doubt about that. He is also by nature more likely to end up like Drew Sanders (5 star in 2020) who got squeezed out by another 5 star in 2020 and 2021. So there is downside risk by joining the factory. Take the pay for play money but never see superstar NIL money.

If Nico's NIL deal is spread out $2M per year (8M total), that already is at superstar NIL money, right? Like Bryce Young was in the 7 figs, but was it >$2M?

 

[GATTACA!]

It’s not NIL vs ND degree though. It’s Pay for Play NIL vs ND degree + NIL. That’s NDs pitch when pressed on it.

Mayer and Hamilton’s bank accounts look better than probably most of the pay for play NIL deals.

Mayer and Hamilton had to come in and play like superstars to get that.

 

[Dale]

If Nico's NIL deal is spread out $2M per year (8M total), that already is at superstar NIL money, right? Like Bryce Young was in the 7 figs, but was it >$2M?

Nico is a clear outlier.

Mayer and Hamilton had to come in and play like superstars to get that.

Keeley is going to finish a Top 10 prospect so yes that is the bar. Every prospect especially ones with a 5 next to them thinks their the next superstar too.

 

[tussin]

“Most”

He’s got Rhoback and Levi though which is connected current NFL players deals.

Rhoback is like a 50M revenue business max. These NIL deals are not a significant part of their marketing spend.

 

[rtrn2glory]

Bottom line is we new the honeymoon phase with mfmf would eventually end. He needs to win games. And when he does recruiting will be just fine.

 

[stlnd01]

It’s not NIL vs ND degree though. It’s Pay for Play NIL vs ND degree + NIL. That’s NDs pitch when pressed on it.

Mayer and Hamilton’s bank accounts look better than probably most of the pay for play NIL deals.

(I realize there's no rules but) Is there anything stopping a kid from signing a pay-for-play NIL deal up front as a recruit and then, later, once they've become Mayer or Hamilton, getting another payday? Or do you only get one bite at this apple?

Because if you can get paid even more after you hit it big in college, a kid like Keeley is probably looking at this upfront cash as bird-in-the-hand money you'd be crazy not to take. It makes our current position on NIL even harder to sustain.

 

[SouthSideChiDomer]

It’s not NIL vs ND degree though. It’s Pay for Play NIL vs ND degree + NIL. That’s NDs pitch when pressed on it.

Mayer and Hamilton’s bank accounts look better than probably most of the pay for play NIL deals.

That's the wrong way to frame it. Its NIL IF YOU ARE SUCCESSFUL vs guaranteed money because you have been successful so far. Its an asymmetric payoff.

Think about both of the offers like they are pro contracts. We are offering an okay base salary (value of ND degree) with pretty good incentives built in for good performance. The pay for play places are offering a very high guaranteed signing bonus spread over several years to supplement a lower base salary and higher incentives targets. Which would you take? The guaranteed money that might end up being lower if you are amazing or the incentive heavy offer which would give you more if you are amazing, but a lot less if you aren't. I think you can see what most professional athletes would choose by what they seek in their contracts.

And I have been saying this for months. We don't need to be the highest bidder for kids. If that is what they are going after, they probably aren't a fit and we probably wouldn't even want them. But we have to be able to get close to matching what others are offering our players so we can make them whole and not be asking them to potentially sacrifice a lot of money to come here.

Getting kids to come here without guaranteed NIL deals will be like trying to get someone to walk on here that has FBS scholarship offers elsewhere. Yeah, some might be willing to do that, but there are going to be a whole lot more that would come here if we offered the same scholarship, but we don't, so they don't.

 

[Dale]

Maybe someone like Lax knows but the language some of the beat has used around Hamilton’s earnings implied a pretty large number. Maybe that was the podcast more than the apparel deals but that was my main basis

And to be clear, I’ve never said our way is more money. Better choice. Period end of story. This is what NDs pitch is.

 

[TorontoGold]

Nico is a clear outlier.



Keeley is going to finish a Top 10 prospect so yes that is the bar. Every prospect especially ones with a 5 next to them thinks their the next superstar too.

That is fair, the Athletic had an NIL article awhile back that discussed NIL deals that kids were getting offered with the superstars around ~$1M and in the mid 6 figures. If Keon secures that, and has comparable on field success he would have at ND then the extra $$$ paid in year 0 are worth it to take that NIL deal.

I think the only way that an ND pitch works financially is if the NIL deal has a lot of out-clauses for the booster, and at that point the value of an ND degree would outweigh the other schools.

Get the delta within $300-400K and I think the NIL gap is materially closed. Anything greater and the kid should take the money. Have a wall street firm set up a "internship" program that promises a 3 year post grad position paying $150K per year upon graduation and you can pitch that to the academically focused kids. The job experience + cash would worth >>$1M and set the kid up for life, in addition to the ND degree.

 

[stlnd01]

Bottom line is we new the honeymoon phase with mfmf would eventually end. He needs to win games. And when he does recruiting will be just fine.

I'm not sure how much winning/losing games has to do with this particular situation. Bama's gonna be Bama, which already gives them a leg up. And now if they can come in and write checks to the best players while we're sitting there moralizing about "the rules," they're going to win that recruitment 10 times out of 10, no matter our record.

 

[notredomer23]

Maybe someone like Lax knows but the language some of the beat has used around Hamilton’s earnings implied a pretty large number. Maybe that was the podcast more than the apparel deals but that was my main basis

And to be clear, I’ve never said our way is more money. Better choice. Period end of story. That’s what NDs pitch is.

These deals combined with podcast, his clothing line, camps, etc would make it pretty shocking if he wasn't over a milly in deals.

 

[NDMD]

Have a wall street firm set up a "internship" program that promises a 3 year post grad position paying $150K per year upon graduation and you can pitch that to the academically focused kids. The job experience + cash would worth >>$1M and set the kid up for life, in addition to the ND degree.

I have no idea whether this is something going on, but this is a great idea and 100% what ND should be doing given the alumni presence in the financial world.

Morgan Stanley literally has a group of alums called "The 1842 Group"

I hope the pitch is not just ND Degree + NIL but Degree/NIL + financial support and education so you're taken care of regardless of what happens in your career

 

[IrishLax]

Maybe someone like Lax knows but the language some of the beat has used around Hamilton’s earnings implied a pretty large number. Maybe that was the podcast more than the apparel deals but that was my main basis

And to be clear, I’ve never said our way is more money. Better choice. Period end of story. This is what NDs pitch is.

Yeah I heard Hamilton was high six figures. Before TA&M started there bonanza, he was (allegedly) one of the highest paid guys in CFB, period.

SouthSide and Toronto I both think are spot on. The truth is that there are "limitless" resources, and for a LOT of kids ND is offering the best package. I think that ND will continue to be very competitive for a lot of 4-star guys because of the potential earnings + everything else ND has going for it. Most of these kids are still putting a premium on NFL development, exposure, etc. because it drastically outweighs what they're being offered right now. You can't retire on a six figure offer.

The FUND and IPC are also absolutely putting money in player's pockets. But is it a guaranteed signing bonus that pays you out a lot of money *now*? No. And that matters for a lot of people. More importantly, it matters for a lot of agents that are advising these kids. I have heard horror stories about agents working their way into recruitments of certain players and then all of a sudden coaches are told to talk to their "representation"... and these agents are steering kids towards whatever is financially best for the agent, everything else be damned. Some of these are guys are even trying to charge predatory 30% cuts.

 

[EvilleIrish]

Yeah I heard Hamilton was high six figures. Before TA&M started there bonanza, he was (allegedly) one of the highest paid guys in CFB, period.

SouthSide and Toronto I both think are spot on. The truth is that there are "limitless" resources, and for a LOT of kids ND is offering the best package. I think that ND will continue to be very competitive for a lot of 4-star guys because of the potential earnings + everything else ND has going for it. Most of these kids are still putting a premium on NFL development, exposure, etc. because it drastically outweighs what they're being offered right now. You can't retire on a six figure offer.

The FUND and IPC are also absolutely putting money in player's pockets. But is it a guaranteed signing bonus that pays you out a lot of money *now*? No. And that matters for a lot of people. More importantly, it matters for a lot of agents that are advising these kids. I have heard horror stories about agents working their way into recruitments of certain players and then all of a sudden coaches are told to talk to their "representation"... and these agents are steering kids towards whatever is financially best for the agent, everything else be damned. Some of these are guys are even trying to charge predatory 30% cuts.

Was listening to a podcast the other day and I believe Lemming? was saying that people wouldn't even believe some of the stories going on right now in the NIL world. I can only imagine. I have a feeling all of this will cause the coaching burnout rate to only grow exponentially.

 

[ThePiombino]

It’s not NIL vs ND degree though. It’s Pay for Play NIL vs ND degree + NIL. That’s NDs pitch when pressed on it.

Mayer and Hamilton’s bank accounts look better than probably most of the pay for play NIL deals.

Then one of two things are true here:

1. ND isn't doing a good enough job of communicating this (doubt it)
2. The kids we're going after are well aware what ND can do for them; however, they still want the quick and easy payout -- the guarantee. Hard to blame them. This isn't going to change until the NCAA actually does something about this OBVIOUS pay-for-play. Which, at the rate the NCAA operates, will be approximately a quarter to never.

I think a lot of those pay for play are gonna end up holding their dick instead of holding a bag of money. USC griping is already showing that.

No doubt, and the frustrating part is it won't stop people like Keeley from being effectively poached by the "highest bidder" because of reason #2 above.

 

[TorontoGold]

I have no idea whether this is something going on, but this is a great idea and 100% what ND should be doing given the alumni presence in the financial world.

Morgan Stanley literally has a group of alums called "The 1842 Group"

I hope the pitch is not just ND Degree + NIL but Degree/NIL + financial support and education so you're taken care of regardless of what happens in your career

Absolutely has to be. Likely already included in their typical pitch, but with the financial aspect being more emphasized today it would be smart to bring this to the forefront.

I wonder if something like a "career fair" focused for football players would be a good summer recruiting event. Do it during the summer so you're missing out on the big busy seasons for a lot of industries and you can get the big ticket alums to come in. Have the Golic's set up a sports media booth and get them to bring in some of their industry friends, have Tom Mendoza bring some heavy hitters in etc. Set up big digestible info graphics with salaries + benefits for everyone to look at. Have the econ department put up a presentation of the actual math behind the ND degree value for legitimacy.

You can neg recruit the shit out of A&M, being like "you can have some GA point to the boxes saying those guys pay your salary" or you can come to ND work on wall street during the summer getting paid $150k+ with a lifestyle like the wolf on wall street. This would be way more in the spirit of NIL than what's happening.

 

[GATTACA!]

Nico is a clear outlier.



Keeley is going to finish a Top 10 prospect so yes that is the bar. Every prospect especially ones with a 5 next to them thinks their the next superstar too.

Yes so capitalize on it while you’re an unknown commodity. If you ball out that’s great and you can add to your bank account. If you get beat out, suck, get injured you have a nice nest egg regardless.

 

[Dale]

Yes so capitalize on it while you’re an unknown commodity. If you ball out that’s great and you can add to your bank account. If you get beat out, suck, get injured you have a nice nest egg regardless.

In that event, that’s where the ND degree comes into play. Keon ain’t gonna have much of a nest egg after everyone takes their cut. The degree is his. Again that would be NDs pitch.

 

[Crazy Balki]

Yes so capitalize on it while you’re an unknown commodity. If you ball out that’s great and you can add to your bank account. If you get beat out, suck, get injured you have a nice nest egg regardless.

That's assuming he gets what he's promised if he doesn't deliver on the field.

I have my high suspicions that would truly be the case. Any pfp contract likely has loopholes that boosters can exploit so they don't get burned on deals like this. Doesn't mean the player gets nothing, but I imagine not all of that money is upfront and guaranteed.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Some poster on ON3 mentioned he actually will today. No clue who he is, or if he’s

Absolutely has to be. Likely already included in their typical pitch, but with the financial aspect being more emphasized today it would be smart to bring this to the forefront.

I wonder if something like a "career fair" focused for football players would be a good summer recruiting event. Do it during the summer so you're missing out on the big busy seasons for a lot of industries and you can get the big ticket alums to come in. Have the Golic's set up a sports media booth and get them to bring in some of their industry friends, have Tom Mendoza bring some heavy hitters in etc. Set up big digestible info graphics with salaries + benefits for everyone to look at. Have the econ department put up a presentation of the actual math behind the ND degree value for legitimacy.

You can neg recruit the shit out of A&M, being like "you can have some GA point to the boxes saying those guys pay your salary" or you can come to ND work on wall street during the summer getting paid $150k+ with a lifestyle like the wolf on wall street. This would be way more in the spirit of NIL than what's happening.

NIL is great for the player and value of degree is what sells mom. I would find it highly unlikely that Notre Dame doesn’t already have a great presentation on both that’s shared during a visit.

 

[du Lac]

It’s time we stop getting upset with coaches for losing games against teams like Bama or TAMU when we play them in a couple years. We are not under the same rules as those schools. It’s time fans get angry with the admin. not the coaches. Get pissed at MF if we lose to OK. State again or go down to the wire with Toledo, but it’s on the admin for getting waxed by teams that pay players. Jesus himself couldn’t coach up ND to beat Bama. If CJ turns out to be Trevor Lawrence, there’s a punchers chance, but it’s on the admin for likely getting ass pounded from here on out, not Freeman. ND should think of 12-0 regular season as ceiling. It’s so tiring to hear coaches say ND expects to win a title. BK said it all the time and he himself did not believe that was possible. Freeman knows deep down that’s a nearly impossible endeavor. If not, he’s finding that out right now. That’s why I believe, being only in his 30’s, ND is a stepping stone for him if he’s successful.