2024 College Football Playoffs

[GoIrish41]

#5. If we were to ever pass PSU it was tonight after hammering a #19 and they escaped MN by 1 point. Officially 5th if we win out, barring someone being upset.

I think next week is the ideal spot for a change of heart by the committee. Penn State beat USC by a FG on the road and it went into OT. If ND lays the wood on them in the same venue it would push it over the edge IMO. Win convincingly and I think they pass PSU after next weekend.

 

[Wild Bill]

It won't matter, they're not going to transitive property from weeks ago when they held the line until the end. Zero chance we jump PSU now unless they lose.

Yes, they do. They explicitly provide what they use to decide their rankings on their website.

Overview

Overview

collegefootballplayoff.com

"The selection committee ranks the teams based on the members’ evaluation of the teams’ performance on the field, using conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, and comparison of results against common opponents."

 

[DomerInHappyValley]

The teams you want to host are SMU, Indiana, and Miami. The team you want to avoid is Georgia. Everything else is sorta net neutral... both PSU and Tennessee are good-not-great.

That's my thoughts
SMU at home is one of the best outcomes as it currently stands.

PSU with their bullshit schedule doesn't scare me


Not counting my chickens, but don't be surprised if I beg for a ticket at face value.

 

[KPENN]

Georgia, Oregon and Ohio St all on the other side of the bracket

 

[Wild Bill]

PSU didn't lose to NIU or a NIU equivalent. ND has no one to blame but themselves.

If quality of loss was the only metric used we'd be out of the conversation entirely. Penn State greatest accomplishment this year is losing to a good team. That's not compelling.

 

[Wild Bill]

Bama is getting into this thing.

 

[KPENN]

PSU didn't lose to NIU or a NIU equivalent. ND has no one to blame but themselves.

ND beat the best team on their schedule, PSU did not.

 

[IrishFren]

Bama is getting into this thing.

they would need a lot of help

 

[Wild Bill]

they would need a lot of help

They need help but the path is there. I'm guessing more than two teams ranked ahead of them lose before the year is done. That's all they really need to justify the bump.

 

[stlnd01]

The committee has, in the past, shuffled rankings late on the grounds of “the complete body of work” and such bullshit. If we beat USC by multiple scores, that would be grounds enough for them to do that in our favor here. Would be super helpful if we could beat them by, say, three scores.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Weather will play a much bigger factor in these CFP first round games than NFL playoff games.

I’d be willing to bet, as one example, over half of Miami’s roster is from Florida and hasn’t really been anywhere else outside of conference road games.

Hope it’s 20 degrees at kickoff.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[FWIrish4]

The committee has, in the past, shuffled rankings late on the grounds of “the complete body of work” and such bullshit. If we beat USC by multiple scores, that would be grounds enough for them to do that in our favor here. Would be super helpful if we could beat them by, say, three scores.

If we bump Penn St only to then host 11 seed Alabama that somehow backdoors in…

 

[NDPhilly]

Beat USC by more than PSU and the committee will have the ammo they need to have us jump them

 

[Katzenboyer]

#5. If we were to ever pass PSU it was tonight after hammering a #19 and they escaped MN by 1 point. Officially 5th if we win out, barring someone being upset.

We jump PSU if we pump USC this weekend. Think that’s how things will shake it.

 

[Sea Turtle]

Would we jump Texas of they lost to Georgia in the SECCG?

 

[GowerND11]

Would we jump Texas of they lost to Georgia in the SECCG?

We should

 

[Wild Bill]

Would we jump Texas of they lost to Georgia in the SECCG?

If they pound AnM and lose a close game to Georgia, probably not.

 

[IrishFren]

Would we jump Texas of they lost to Georgia in the SECCG?

i don’t think the committee will punish teams that lose conference championships too harshly. if Texas beats A&M this weekend i think they’ll stay ahead of us regardless of the SEC championship. they’d have the same regular season record as us, with the same exact marquee win and a “better loss”

 

[Gladiator]

This is where I am at. You will have to beat a good team to win it all regardless and due to the league being pretty down this year as far as GREAT teams are concerned, I would rather get one of the “better” teams at home in the cold.

If we remember last year's end result, It was UM that had the easy road.
Bama wasn't the Bama of old and Washington was absolutely the Washington everyone expected.

Georgia being left out by a loss in the CCG was UM's way to the top.
We have to hope for similar results, although we can beat anyone on any given day.

Let's not kid ourselves. Georgia needs to either play us at home, or we are going to win in the bloodbath. Stay positive

 

[Wild Bill]

i don’t think the committee will punish teams that lose conference championships too harshly. if Texas beats A&M this weekend i think they’ll stay ahead of us regardless of the SEC championship. they’d have the same regular season record as us, with the same exact marquee win and a “better loss”

You could be right but we have no reason to assume this is what they'll do. They typically punish the loser of these games. Maybe that changes going from 4 to 12 teams but who the hell really knows.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Bama is getting into this thing.

Yep. Spotted at 13. lol. All they have to do is not lose to Auburn. What a fucking joke.

 

[ND88]

No.

We have a chance to embarrass USC @their place. Penn State needed overtime and the refs to win @ SC. It's a data point the committee considers.

I agree. This is the perfect placement for ND as far as motivation is concerned. We all know PSU is fraudulent AF, but ND must absolutely destroy USC for its own sense of certainty that we aren’t to be fucked with. All the other incentives will follow. It’s in our court and we should love that.

 

[ND88]

PSU didn't lose to NIU or a NIU equivalent. ND has no one to blame but themselves.

I think this is fair.

However, PSU is fraudulent and can fuck off as an entire program.

Both are fair assessments.

 

[IrishFren]

Yep. Spotted at 13. lol. All they have to do is not lose to Auburn. What a fucking joke.

that’s not how it works

 

[IRISHDODGER]

Beat SC

 

[IrishFren]

assuming ND can handle business this week** i think ND will end up getting the 8th seed and play tennessee. Uga is gonna beat texas in the Sec championship and they won’t drop texas below us. so we’ll drop to 8.

def rooting for texas in the sec championship game

 

[Wild Bill]

I think this is fair.

However, PSU is fraudulent and can fuck off as an entire program.

Both are fair assessments.

"We lost to NIU" has turned into IE's version of "Brawndo - it's what plants crave."

Fair or not, reading the same stupid shit over and over is exhausting. Clearly, it’s impossible for our brains to consider any other factors the committee might weigh so brawndo is what plants want and that's that.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

that’s not how it works

Yes it is. By the time of the Championship games are done it’s almost inevitable that Bama won’t move up one spot. As long as they beat Auburn. They need other things to happen but it’s virtually inevitable they won’t move one spot over the next two games (final game plus their idle week during Champ games).

I’ve seen multiple pod casts and videos where people are truly trying to justify putting bama in over even Clemson or one of the other potentially at large teams. They truly can’t cope enough and the playoff committee is doing their best to keep them where they can sneak in.

 

[IrishFren]

Yes it is. By the time of the Championship games are done it’s almost inevitable that Bama won’t move up one spot. As long as they beat Auburn. They need other things to happen but it’s virtually inevitable they won’t move one spot over the next two games (final game plus their idle week during Champ games).

I’ve seen multiple pod casts and videos where people are truly trying to justify putting bama in over even Clemson or one of the other potentially at large teams.

bama needs at least 2 upsets ahead of them this week, or they’re out. if both ACC champ teams are 11-1 the loser will stay ahead of bama. if clemson beats south carolina they stay ahead of bama. if Texas beats A&m they are in regardless of the sec championship.

to be in the playoff as an at large you need to be ranked 11 rn

 

[Wild Bill]

Yes it is. By the time of the Championship games are done it’s almost inevitable that Bama won’t move up one spot. As long as they beat Auburn. They need other things to happen but it’s virtually inevitable they won’t move one spot over the next two games (final game plus their idle week during Champ games).

I’ve seen multiple pod casts and videos where people are truly trying to justify putting bama in over even Clemson or one of the other potentially at large teams.

It won't be quite that simple - a loss by two teams ranked ahead of them won't necessarily result in bama getting in over them. They are positioned better than I thought and it's clear they are within striking distance.

Couple factors to consider is whether the committee would jump south carolina over them for a spot if they beat clemson bad. I think that's a real possiblity.

If Clemson wins convincingly this week and gets bumped into the top 12, and then SMU loses a close game in teh ACCCG - would the committee bump SMU out in favor of bama, basically putting in the 3rd place ACC team over the runner up despite having the same amount of losses? That's a tough one to justify.

I think they're positioned within striking distance to bump them up the rankings if Georgia and/or Tennessee lose this week. If one of those teams takes a third loss this weekend, the SEC is getting a third team in whether it's bama or South Carolina, maybe both.

Who gives a shit anyway. Let them come up north in December and take their medicine.