2019 Notre Dame SP+ Tracker

[IrishLion]

I'm going to use this thread to track ND's SP+ rankings during the year to see how it changes as the season progresses... It will also be interesting to track how ND's offense and defense hold up against each other.

THIS SYSTEM IS ANALYTICAL. It is not ranking teams based on resume. It is ranking them by measuring the most sustainable and predictable measures of football and a team's efficiency.

At this point, some #FootballGuys scoff or tune out... if you're skeptical, let me just say that if you're using SP+ to make bets against the spread, you're going to end up coming out ahead at the end of the year.

It predicted a 35-18 ND victory over Louisville, soooooo it's pretty good, even just based on preseason data.

For a link to the SP+ rankings after week 1: https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27529950/sp+-rankings-week-1-wisconsin-makes-leap


NOTRE DAME SP+ RANKINGS

WEEK ONE
Overall - #12
Offense - n/a
Defense - n/a

WEEK TWO
Overall - #17 (16.2)
Offense - #30 (42.7)
Defense - #36 (26.5)

WEEK THREE
Overall - #12 (18.7)
Offense - #24 (43.1)
Defense - #28 (24.4)

WEEK FOUR
Overall - #10 (22.4)
Offense - #7 (41.4)
Defense - #29 (19.4)

WEEK FIVE
Overall - #12 (20.2)
Offense - #14 (40.3)
Defense - #35 (20.5)

WEEK SIX
Overall - #22 (16.7)
Offense - #24 (36.2)
Defense - #32 (19.6)

WEEK SEVEN
Overall - #13 (18.7)
Offense - #18 (37.3)
Defense - #27 (18.8)

WEEK EIGHT
Overall - #21 (15.1)
Offense - #18 (37.0)
Defense - #40 (22.3)

 

[EvilleIrish]

I'm going to use this thread to track ND's SP+ rankings during the year to see how it changes as the season progresses... It will also be interesting to track how ND's offense and defense hold up against each other.

THIS SYSTEM IS ANALYTICAL. It is not ranking teams based on resume. It is ranking them by measuring the most sustainable and predictable measures of football and a team's efficiency.

At this point, some #FootballGuys scoff or tune out... if you're skeptical, let me just say that if you're using SP+ to make bets against the spread, you're going to end up coming out ahead at the end of the year.

It predicted a 35-18 ND victory over Louisville, soooooo it's pretty good, even just based on preseason data.

For a link to the SP+ rankings after week 1: https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27529950/sp+-rankings-week-1-wisconsin-makes-leap


NOTRE DAME SP+ RANKINGS

PRESEASON
Overall - #12
Offense - n/a
Defense - n/a

WEEK ONE
Overall - #17 (16.2)
Offense - #30 (42.7)
Defense - #36 (26.5)

Great thread. SP+ is my favorite advanced analytics that's out there, even though it's depressing to see us drop all the way to #17.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

It'll be fun to revisit as we get our original offensive weapons back. We're now down 3 of our top 5 offensive players. As they slowly work their way back in, I wonder if we see the SP+ reflect that in performance.

 

[IrishLion]

Notre Dame was idle, yet moved up to #12 overall in SP+.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27569383/sp+-rankings-week-2-oregon-jumps-10-spots

Probably a little to do with teams ahead of them moving down, and a little to do with Louisville's ratings improving after their win.

ND's offense saw a little bump, while the defense saw a larger bump. Interesting to see how it was affected simply by what Louisville did, rather than factoring both an ND result and an opponent result.

 

[EvilleIrish]

Notre Dame was idle, yet moved up to #12 overall in SP+.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27569383/sp+-rankings-week-2-oregon-jumps-10-spots

Probably a little to do with teams ahead of them moving down, and a little to do with Louisville's ratings improving after their win.

ND's offense saw a little bump, while the defense saw a larger bump. Interesting to see how it was affected simply by what Louisville did, rather than factoring both an ND result and an opponent result.

Sagarin has Georgia at 46 (!!!). Either he's a secret genius or that formula might be off just a tad....

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Sagarin has Georgia at 46 (!!!). Either he's a secret genius or that formula might be off just a tad....

He has Vanderbilt at #146 (they got handled by #110 Purdue who lost to Nevada) and so credits Georgia with a schedule on par with North Dakota State.

Any system which strongly relies on 2019 data at the expense of pre-season projections is going to be wonky after that G5/FCS uprising on the opening weekend.

 

[IrishLion]

Notre Dame moved into the top 10!

...right as UGA passes Clemson (!) to become the #2 team in SP+. Joyous timing.

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...+-rankings-week-3-georgia-moves-ahead-clemson

Clemson is better than UGA in terms of their composite between offense and defense, but SP+ now features special teams ratings, and UGA is one of the best ST units in the country through 3 games.

In terms of ND, the offensive ratings made a big jump based on the efficiency displayed against New Mexico. A lot of yards on a relatively few amount of plays. The defense dropped one spot, likely because the run defense is poopoo.

So the good news is that ND is finally seeing some analytical credit for pounding an inferior opponent the way you'd like to see. Previously, ND would have looked slightly underwhelming in a matchup like this, and wouldn't have seen a bump from SP+ (Ball State was a game that tanked ND's SP+ rating all year last year, basically).

The bad news is that the #2 overall team looms on Saturday night, and their strengths line up perfectly with ND's weaknesses.

The offensive rating bump isn't going to matter if Long doesn't figure out how to get his run game working.

 

[EvilleIrish]

Notre Dame moved into the top 10!

...right as UGA passes Clemson (!) to become the #2 team in SP+. Joyous timing.

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...+-rankings-week-3-georgia-moves-ahead-clemson

Clemson is better than UGA in terms of their composite between offense and defense, but SP+ now features special teams ratings, and UGA is one of the best ST units in the country through 3 games.

In terms of ND, the offensive ratings made a big jump based on the efficiency displayed against New Mexico. A lot of yards on a relatively few amount of plays. The defense dropped one spot, likely because the run defense is poopoo.

So the good news is that ND is finally seeing some analytical credit for pounding an inferior opponent the way you'd like to see. Previously, ND would have looked slightly underwhelming in a matchup like this, and wouldn't have seen a bump from SP+ (Ball State was a game that tanked ND's SP+ rating all year last year, basically).

The bad news is that the #2 overall team looms on Saturday night, and their strengths line up perfectly with ND's weaknesses.

The offensive rating bump isn't going to matter if Long doesn't figure out how to get his run game working.

Unless I'm reading Sagarin incorrectly, he has UGA beating us by about 4.

 

[EvilleIrish]

So somehow we dropped to 22???

 

[ThePiombino]

So somehow we dropped to 22???

I mean we won by 15, but looked like shit for 1/2 the game.

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[dad4aa]

I mean we won by 15, but looked like shit for 1/2 the game.

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Then how far did Clemson drop?

 

[BobbyMac]

I mean we won by 15, but looked like shit for 1/2 the game.

And that's the problem with even advanced stats. It can't differentiate between a guy getting burned by 10 yards for a TD on a 30 yard go route and the perfect pass that beat a perfectly positioned Bracy for a TD yesterday.

ND's D looked good all game, Perkins was just having that once in a lifetime half. Go back and look at his mechanics on those passes. . . feet, body and arm motion of a Jr High QB but the ball was absolutely perfect.

 

[Luckylucci]

We beat the #18 team by 15. Ended up being a big win

 

[Luckylucci]

And that's the problem with even advanced stats. It can't differentiate between a guy getting burned by 10 yards for a TD on a 30 yard go route and the perfect pass that beat a perfectly positioned Bracy for a TD yesterday.

ND's D looked good all game, Perkins was just having that once in a lifetime half. Go back and look at his mechanics on those passes. . . feet, body and arm motion of a Jr High QB but the ball was absolutely perfect.

On one of the crossers to Reed he sunk his hips and threw it side arm. The ball was perfect, lol

 

[BobbyMac]

On one of the crossers to Reed he sunk his hips and threw it side arm. The ball was perfect, lol

That's one that came to mind. He looked like a middle infielder making a quick throw to first.

 

[ThePiombino]

That's one that came to mind. He looked like a middle infielder making a quick throw to first.

Yep, and that's how Flutie described him - an "infielder" who can make all the throws lol

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[BobbyMac]

Yep, and that's how Flutie described him - an "infielder" who can make all the throws lol

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The thought that my brain worked like the disgruntled midget's even for that one moment in time.

For the record, I was in a loud bar and could not hear the sound. I have witnesses.

 

[ThePiombino]

The thought that my brain worked like the disgruntled midget's even for that one moment in time.



For the record, I was in a loud bar and could not hear the sound. I have witnesses.

lol we all have our crosses to bear

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[Legacy]

2019 FEI Ratings (through Week 5) as well as S&P

Opponent's FEI Overall Rankings

Bowling Green - 128th of 130 FBS teams
USC - 37th
Michigan - 22nd
Virginia Tech - 96th
Duke - 35th
Navy - 56th
BC - 81st
Stanford - 74th

 

[EvilleIrish]

Back down to 21. Weird.

 

[NDMIA]

Back down to 21. Weird.

The Eliminator

Alabama 6-0
Ohio State 6-0
LSU 6-0
Wisconsin 6-0
Clemson 6-0
Penn State 6-0
Oklahoma 6-0
Baylor 6-0
Minnesota 6-0
Auburn 5-1
Notre Dame 5-1
Georgia 5-1
Florida 6-1
Oregon 5-1
Utah 5-1
Michigan 5-1
Arizona State 5-1
Missouri 5-1 (Postseason Ban)
Wake Forest 5-1

Basically ND needs to be rooting for Michigan to go 10-2, USC to go 9-3, Virginia wins the ACC, and Georgia wins the SEC. Other than that, a lot of chaos and a lot of upsets. The SEC needs those top 6 teams to lose to each other and beat themselves up a bit and the PAC-12 needs to eliminate itself. Not much ND can do itself other than winning by big margins in the future and try to go 11-1 and pray!

 

[House16]

SP+ gave us a post-game win expectancy of 21% for the USC game, so basically it’s treating that like a loss. Plus the Georgia and UVA losses, it’s kinda a miracle we didn’t drop further.

 

[stlnd01]

Guys, we're not making the playoffs. It's OK.

 

[EvilleIrish]

SP+ gave us a post-game win expectancy of 21% for the USC game, so basically it’s treating that like a loss. Plus the Georgia and UVA losses, it’s kinda a miracle we didn’t drop further.

Did we really get dominated that badly? I mean, we were up 17 at one point and it's not like SC had a bunch of turnovers.

 

[IrishLax]

Back down to 21. Weird.

SP+ gave us a post-game win expectancy of 21% for the USC game, so basically it’s treating that like a loss. Plus the Georgia and UVA losses, it’s kinda a miracle we didn’t drop further.

There has always been an issue with SP+ treating turnovers like "luck," and accordingly it can't reconcile that the UVA game was actually a demolition performed by our DL not "luck" to get sack + fumbles. It also can't grasp that ND effectively played prevent defense after getting up 20-3 because they didn't think USC had the ability come back from 3 scores down with how ND was running the ball... they were correct, even if it was a bit of a nailbiter. It looks at the defense getting gashed in the running game and Slovis heating up and goes "wow, ND sucks!"

I kind of agree, but I also have major issues with the logic. Other efficiency ratings have us significantly higher, mainly because they don't rank the ND defense is the 40s. Does anyone really think we don't have a top 25 defense? They haven't given up more than 30 points a single time in the last season and a half.

 

[IrishLion]

Did we really get dominated that badly? I mean, we were up 17 at one point and it's not like SC had a bunch of turnovers.

It was less about ND getting beat by USC, and more about what the model expected USC to do against ND.

USC didn't turn the ball over, and had some success in certain situations late in the game, so it hurt ND's defensive ratings big time, and hurt ND's overall rating based on the fact that it looks like ND needs significant 'Turnover Luck' to beat the best teams they play.

ND's offense, on the other hand, continues to show pretty well despite issues in the passing game. If Book can continue to improve, and starts taking (and hitting) a few more deep shots, it will help.

I think the biggest thing, though, is the UGA loss. Their offense looked inefficient, and that further hurts ND's defensive ratings even more.

 

[IrishLion]

I didn't see LAX's post before I responded, but we're clearly on the same page lol.

ND's offense is getting propped up in SP+ because they've demolished the teams they're supposed to demolish, and the defense is getting dragged down because they've been good at creating turnovers, but SP+ sees every turnover as a 50/50 proposition, which is true for random fumbles but not for INT's or Sack-Fumbles.

So when a team that is expected to experience BAD 'Turnover Luck' doesn't turn the ball over (like USC this past weekend), it reflects poorly on ND, for some reason, even though ND ALSO protected the football.

 

[EvilleIrish]

I didn't see LAX's post before I responded, but we're clearly on the same page lol.

ND's offense is getting propped up in SP+ because they've demolished the teams they're supposed to demolish, and the defense is getting dragged down because they've been good at creating turnovers, but SP+ sees every turnover as a 50/50 proposition, which is true for random fumbles but not for INT's or Sack-Fumbles.

So when a team that is expected to experience BAD 'Turnover Luck' doesn't turn the ball over (like USC this past weekend), it reflects poorly on ND, for some reason, even though ND ALSO protected the football.

It's certainly interesting. I'm a huge SP believer but was shocked to see us at 21.

 

[EvilleIrish]

Down to #25

 

[BabyIrish]

Down to #25

Where’s Navy?