2018 Midterm Elections

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Buster Bluth

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Signatures in Ohio are due in less than a month. We need a 2018 Midterm Election thread.

A whopping 31 House Republicans will not be seeking re-election in November, NPR reports, including Rep. Darrell Issa (Calif.), who announced his impending retirement from Congress on Wednesday. The 2018 GOP exodus is a new record: The last time there was such a massive departure from Congress was when 28 Democrats left in 1994, and Republicans subsequently seized control.
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https://theweek.com/speedreads/747985/recordbreaking-31-house-republicans-wont-seek-reelection-2018

This projection website gives the Democrats a 66.1% chance of taking the House.

2018 Midterm Elections Forecast

The Senate is much more easy to follow. The Republicans probably have the most favorable match up in modern American history, defending 8 seats against the Democrats' 26. Here is how I see it right now.

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Arizona is going to get very interesting very quickly if that bum Arpaio wins the nomination. Texas could get interesting, and I think the political world is sleeping on how much of a battle Tennessee could be for Republicans.

But Donald Trump won Montana, North Dakota, etc by a wide margin and they are very red states. Will they revert to the norm?

I think Nevada leans Blue right now because 1) it didn't vote for Trump, 2) Hispanic voters, 3) Mormons, 4) Sessions' pot antics.
 
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Buster Bluth

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https://apnews.com/8f3d02e12b914b86b4c352b0ab01049f

If the new map withstands the Republican complaint of separation of powers, this new map would have been a 9-9 split in 2012, instead it went 5-13 despite most if the state voting Democratic.

Think about that. The majority of the state votes Democrat and they win just 5/18 seats. Disgusting to anyone who values our democracy.
 
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Legacy

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Track the California races that could flip the House (LA Times)

The stakes are high in this year's midterm elections: control of the U.S. House. For Democrats to reclaim power, they must forge a path through California, home to 39 Democratic-held seats and 14 Republican-held ones. The party considers 10 districts here to be battlegrounds and can't win the House without winning at least a few of them.
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These maps show why some California Republicans are nervous about changes to the tax code (LA Times)
California taxpayers would be hit disproportionately hard under the Republican tax plan because of changes to two popular tax breaks.

That's one reason GOP lawmakers in the state's House delegation were under so much scrutiny when most of them voted to pass the House version in November. Several members said they agreed to move the bill forward with the promise of a fix later.
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Irishize

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Well if history repeats itself...and it tends to with Congress....the Dems will win a landslide and the balance of power will shift yet again.

Despite all the differences the media & pundits like to focus on, the one common thread is that neither party can handle power.

W had a Republican majority and blew it
Obama had a Democratic majority and blew it
Trump has a Republican majority and will lose it in the mid-term.

When I say they “blew it” I meant from a Party platform perspective. Sure they had some success with a priority or two (tax cuts, Obamacare), but nowhere near what they say they stand for. In some cases, not even a bill put forth, which hints at their own fear of re-election and further proof that most are career pols who want to keep their post vs striking while the iron is hot and passing legislation that they ran on & purportedly champion.
 
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Cackalacky

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Congrats <a href="https://twitter.com/RepLindaBelcher?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@RepLindaBelcher</a> on your major decisive win tonight! &#55357;&#56908;&#55356;&#57341;&#55357;&#56908;&#55356;&#57341;&#55357;&#56908;&#55356;&#57341;<br><br>86 POINT SWING IN KENTUCKY YALL! &#55357;&#56485;&#55357;&#56485;&#55357;&#56485;<br><br>Let’s keep it going thru the upcoming special elections, primaries and general elections! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WhenWeVoteWeWin?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WhenWeVoteWeWin</a><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FlipItBlue?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FlipItBlue</a><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueTsunami?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueTsunami</a> &#55356;&#57098;&#55356;&#57098;&#55356;&#57098; <a href="https://t.co/4pba5P6fbW">https://t.co/4pba5P6fbW</a></p>— natalie&#55356;&#57207; (@NatCookResists) <a href="https://twitter.com/NatCookResists/status/966116847161548803?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 21, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
SonofOahu

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Cackalacky said:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Congrats <a href="https://twitter.com/RepLindaBelcher?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@RepLindaBelcher</a> on your major decisive win tonight! ������������<br><br>86 POINT SWING IN KENTUCKY YALL! ������<br><br>Let’s keep it going thru the upcoming special elections, primaries and general elections! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WhenWeVoteWeWin?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WhenWeVoteWeWin</a><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FlipItBlue?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FlipItBlue</a><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueTsunami?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueTsunami</a> ������ <a href="https://t.co/4pba5P6fbW">https://t.co/4pba5P6fbW</a></p>— natalie�� (@NatCookResists) <a href="https://twitter.com/NatCookResists/status/966116847161548803?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 21, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Boom
 
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Cackalacky

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Early voting data from Texas is just bonkers. % change over 2014:<br><br>Democrats: ⬆️70%<br>Republicans: ⬇️8%<br><br>This is the first midterm since 2006 when Democrats are casting more early ballots than Republicans.<a href="https://t.co/qMb9O37yAV">https://t.co/qMb9O37yAV</a> <a href="https://t.co/zzCX1e67qI">pic.twitter.com/zzCX1e67qI</a></p>— G. Elliott Morris&#55357;&#56520;&#55358;&#56631;*♂️ (@gelliottmorris) <a href="https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/967071011534458880?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 23, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
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PA-18 will be split in four come November. Here’s why Tuesday’s special election still matters.

On paper, the Pennsylvania special election on Tuesday could appear inconsequential. The winner will serve out the rest of this year while most legislating is on pause so lawmakers can run for reelection. And the district won’t even exist in its current form come November, thanks to a redrawn map recently ordered by the state Supreme Court. But the race could have far-reaching implications for the strategy of both parties, both in Pennsylvania and nationally.
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Cackalacky

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Our election night poll in PA-18 found that health care was a defining issue in the race. 52% said it was either the most important issue or very important in their vote, and Conor Lamb won those voters 62-38: <a href="https://t.co/1D00GVRY5k">https://t.co/1D00GVRY5k</a></p>— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) <a href="https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/973892415307345921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 14, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Cackalacky

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">GOP House districts less Republican than PA18:<br>AL2<br>AK<br>AZ2<br>AZ5<br>AZ6<br>AR2<br>CA1<br>CA4<br>CA8<br>CA10<br>CA21<br>CA22<br>CA25<br>CA39<br>CA42<br>CA45<br>CA48<br>CA49<br>CA50<br>CO3<br>CO6<br>FL3<br>FL6<br>FL8<br>FL15<br>FL15<br>FL16<br>FL17<br>FL18<br>FL25<br>FL26<br>FL27<br>GA6<br>GA7<br>GA12<br>IL6<br>IL12<br>IL13<br>IL14<br>IN2<br>IN4<br>IN5<br>IN8<br>IN9<br>IA1<br>IA3<br>IA4<br>(We're not done yet...)</p>— David Leonhardt (@DLeonhardt) <a href="https://twitter.com/DLeonhardt/status/973922265623683074?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 14, 2018</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">GOP House districts less Republican than PA18, continued:<br>KS2<br>KS3<br>KY6<br>ME2<br>MI1<br>MI6<br>MI7<br>MI8<br>MI11<br>MN2<br>MN3<br>MS3<br>MO2<br>MT<br>NV2<br>NJ2<br>NJ3<br>NJ4<br>NJ7<br>NJ11<br>NM2<br>NY1<br>NY2<br>NY11<br>NY19<br>NY22<br>NY23<br>NY24<br>NC2<br>NC5<br>NC6<br>NC7<br>NC8<br>NC9<br>NC10<br>NC11<br>NC13<br>OH1<br>OH2<br>OH7<br>OH10<br>OH12<br>OH14<br>OH15<br>OH16<br>OK5<br>We're still not done...</p>— David Leonhardt (@DLeonhardt) <a href="https://twitter.com/DLeonhardt/status/973922465524088833?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 14, 2018</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="ht" dir="ltr">GOP House districts less Republican than PA18, part 3 of 3:<br>PA1<br>PA5<br>PA6<br>PA7<br>PA9<br>PA10<br>PA11<br>PA13<br>PA16<br>PA17<br>SC1<br>SC2<br>SC5<br>SC8<br>SD<br>TX2<br>TX3<br>TX6<br>TX7<br>TX10<br>TX14<br>TX21<br>TX22<br>TX23<br>TX24<br>TX25<br>TX27<br>TX31<br>UT4<br>VA1<br>VA2<br>VA5<br>VA6<br>VA7<br>VA10<br>WA3<br>WA5<br>WA8<br>WV2<br>WI1<br>WI6<br>WI7<br>WI8<br><br>Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@benchmarkpol</a></p>— David Leonhardt (@DLeonhardt) <a href="https://twitter.com/DLeonhardt/status/973922642410590208?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 14, 2018</a></blockquote>
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By less Republican, I can only understand he means by voting margin. Interesting regardless of how "red" these locations are.
 
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Cackalacky

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Blue wave. Wake up Republicans. <a href="https://t.co/YtBpMliHRR">https://t.co/YtBpMliHRR</a></p>— Joe Walsh (@WalshFreedom) <a href="https://twitter.com/WalshFreedom/status/981906320981884929?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 5, 2018</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BREAKING?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BREAKING</a> Phil Bredesen holds double-digit lead over Marsha Blackburn in US Senate race, new MTSU poll shows <a href="https://t.co/7f42Xzttkd">https://t.co/7f42Xzttkd</a></p>— Tennessean (@Tennessean) <a href="https://twitter.com/Tennessean/status/981895329841864705?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 5, 2018</a></blockquote>
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WILL MAKING IT EASIER TO VOTE INCREASE PARTICIPATION IN NJ ELECTIONS? (NJ Spotlight)

Among the reforms introduced by several bills: automatic voter registration when residents renew their licenses and a secure website that will let them vote online

New Jersey lawmakers have begun moving legislation meant to increase participation in elections and give voters more information on which to base their votes, part of a long-sought effort by Democrats to expand voting here.

A package of bills is being considered by the state Senate that would provide for automatic voter registration through the Motor Vehicle] Commission, allow for secure online voter registration, and expand early voting in the state, among other things.
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Federal judge: Texas is violating national voter registration law (Texas Tribune)
A federal judge has ruled that Texas violated the federal National Voter Registration Act. The fix he orders could introduce the state's first online voter registration system.

Handing the state another voting rights loss, a federal judge has sided with a civil rights group that claimed Texas violated federal law by failing to register residents to vote when they updated their drivers’ license information online.

In a court order made public on Tuesday, U.S. District Judge Orlando Garcia of San Antonio ruled that Texas was in violation of the federal National Voter Registration Act. A portion of that law requires states to give residents the opportunity to register to vote at the same time that they apply for or renew their driver’s licenses.

It wasn’t immediately clear how Garcia will direct the state to comply with the law; Garcia indicated he will provide more details in the next two weeks. But the Texas Civil Rights Project, which represents several Texas voters in the case, said the state would “soon be forced” to change its voter registration policies — and possibly introduce its first mechanism for online voter registration.

“For too long, the state of Texas has ignored federal voting rights laws intended to ensure that all eligible voters have an opportunity to register to vote,” said Beth Stevens, voting rights director at the Texas Civil Rights Project. “We look forward to seeing deep changes in [the Texas Department of Public Safety’s] voter registration practices in the coming months, affecting well over a million Texans every year.”
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Cackalacky

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">After discussions with my family & careful reflection, I have decided to leave Congress in the coming weeks. Serving the people of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PA15?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PA15</a> has been a tremendous responsibility & the privilege of a lifetime. <a href="https://t.co/p8mik6s8ix">pic.twitter.com/p8mik6s8ix</a></p>— Rep. Charlie Dent (@RepCharlieDent) <a href="https://twitter.com/RepCharlieDent/status/986250527674720258?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 17, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Cackalacky

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">New at <a href="https://twitter.com/CookPolitical?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CookPolitical</a>: 7 more races move towards Democrats following latest polls/fundraising reports. Full ratings: <a href="https://t.co/wcfAZ8REga">https://t.co/wcfAZ8REga</a> <a href="https://t.co/vGiq260mzN">pic.twitter.com/vGiq260mzN</a></p>— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) <a href="https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/986622073442365441?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 18, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Cackalacky

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Beto O’Rourke is within the margin of error of Ted Cruz in the Texas senate race.<br><br>Cruz 47<br>O’Rourke 44<br><br>MOE +/-3.6%<a href="https://twitter.com/QuinnipiacPoll?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@QuinnipiacPoll</a> <a href="https://t.co/D1tZZu26Nm">pic.twitter.com/D1tZZu26Nm</a></p>— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) <a href="https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/986660665678016524?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 18, 2018</a></blockquote>
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IrishLax

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Democrats have a 100% chance of taking the House. Lead pipe lock. Republicans are going to stay home and Democrats are going to come out in force and it's going to be a bloodbath.
 
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Cackalacky

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IrishLax said:
Democrats have a 100% chance of taking the House. Lead pipe lock. Republicans are going to stay home and Democrats are going to come out in force and it's going to be a bloodbath.
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The SC-05 was Mick Mulvaney's district before he left to dismantle Consumer Bureau. Ralph Normal won a special election 51-48. He also recently pulled out a loaded gun at a town hall after the shooting in Florida. This district is very much in play right now and has been reliably Republican for many many years. He will be challenged again in Nov IIRC.

SC-01... I am unsure Mark Sanford will lose but he is currently being out raised by a complete novice in Joe Cunningham and he is though to be under severe pressure from two primary opponents as well. Dems are way outperforming in both special elections we have had so far.
 
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