2018 CFP Rankings

[GowerND11]

I boldly predict half of the teams will lose the last week and in the CCs.

Well... You're not wrong John Madden.

 

[Irish YJ]

Third or fourth for most of them.

Bama has already played LA Lafayette and Arkansas State in addition to their bye week.

LSU has SE Louisiana and Louisiana Tech in their rear view mirror.

UGA playing Austin Peay and Middle Tennessee early make their UMass game look tough

Hey, Middle Tenn > UMASS lol

 

[Irish YJ]

I boldly predict half of the teams will lose the last week and in the CCs.

IF we lost to Syracuse...

I predict the Top 10 going into the CC week as

Bama
Clemson
UGA
OK
OSU
LSU
WashST
Utah
UCF
ND

Losers during the CC week - UGA and Utah.

Leaving it

Bama
Clemson
OK
OSU

 

[ickythump1225]

^This. If Notre Dame and Michigan have one loss to end the season and Michigan jumps Notre Dame then the system has failed. What is the point in playing a game head to head if winning doesn’t matter. End of story.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

One of the alleged positives of this new format was that it would encourage teams to schedule better OOC games because resumes would matter. What has become clear is that you just need to win a national title once and you'll get the benefit of the doubt moving forward due to the "eye test." I actually think the system discourages playing a real schedule.

 

[ickythump1225]

so let me get this straight. ND can lose the second to last game to a non top 10 team, likely drop 5-6 spots to 8 or 9, and still jump back into the top 4 by beating a .500 USC team? It would take a LOT of teams losing the last week, and in the CCs.

If ND were in the SEC, maybe... we're not.

If we were in the SEC we wouldn't drop anything for losing to Syracuse, we'd probably move up 1 spot or stay pat because well we gave up a true home game and Syracuse is good, etc.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

One of the alleged positives of this new format was that it would encourage teams to schedule better OOC games because resumes would matter. What has become clear is that you just need to win a national title once and you'll get the benefit of the doubt moving forward due to the "eye test." I actually think the system discourages playing a real schedule.

Agree with this. Prime example - Bama. Ranked #1 in the first CFP poll and their best win this year is at home against 5-3 TAMU. That is pretty pathetic. Not saying Bama isn't good but their resume objectively is garbage, and they are rewarded with #1 poll position.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Also, why is South Carolina not ranked? I mean, they lost to some really good SEC teams.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Agree with this. Prime example - Bama. Ranked #1 in the first CFP poll and their best win this year is at home against 5-3 TAMU. That is pretty pathetic. Not saying Bama isn't good but their resume objectively is garbage, and they are rewarded with #1 poll position.

And if the narrative holds true, they will not have beaten anyone after winning Sat night in Red Stick. Then, the narrative will continue if they make the conference championship and beat Ga. Then the narrative will continue and they will have not beaten anyone if they win the first playoff game. The narrative then changes if they win the NC and they somehow played a soft schedule even though they woild have beaten three top five teams. They end up with a top 10 SOS but didn't play anyone. Best way to shut down the "narrative" is to beat Bama. Otherwise, it sounds like my friends from L7U.... excuses beng made before games are played. Just my thoughts...

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

And if the narrative holds true, they will not have beaten anyone after winning Sat night in Red Stick. Then, the narrative will continue if they make the conference championship and beat Ga. Then the narrative will continue and they will have not beaten anyone if they win the first playoff game. The narrative then changes if they win the NC and they somehow played a soft schedule even though they woild have beaten three top five teams. They end up with a top 10 SOS but didn't play anyone. Best way to shut down the "narrative" is to beat Bama. Otherwise, it sounds like my friends from L7U.... excuses beng made before games are played. Just my thoughts...

I'm saying right now at this point in time, Bama does not have the SOS to justify a #1 ranking. If they go out and beat down LSU, which I expect them to do, I have no problem with them at #1. The problem isn't Bama, the problem is the immense subjectivity this committee uses to rank teams. Its absolutely a moving target, cherry picking whatever metrics, eye test, etc that fits their narrative.

Look, Bama deserves respect. They are likely, overwhelmingly, the best team in college football. But we cannot yet know that if their best win is against a middling TAMU team.

 

[T Town Tommy]

I'm saying right now at this point in time, Bama does not have the SOS to justify a #1 ranking. If they go out and beat down LSU, which I expect them to do, I have no problem with them at #1. The problem isn't Bama, the problem is the immense subjectivity this committee uses to rank teams. Its absolutely a moving target, cherry picking whatever metrics, eye test, etc that fits their narrative.

Look, Bama deserves respect. They are likely, overwhelmingly, the best team in college football. But we cannot yet know that if their best win is against a middling TAMU team.

I don't necessarily disagree with the playoff committee being subjective. But we don't really know how good or bad Bama really is right now. They are beating opponents at a rate that reminds me of the Oklahoma teams from a decade ago. I do think that Bama gets the benefit of the doubt as defending champs and until someone proves otherwise, then I don't see them moving off the #1 spot. Their toughest games are ahead so we will see if they make it through or not.

 

[Irish YJ]

And if the narrative holds true, they will not have beaten anyone after winning Sat night in Red Stick. Then, the narrative will continue if they make the conference championship and beat Ga. Then the narrative will continue and they will have not beaten anyone if they win the first playoff game. The narrative then changes if they win the NC and they somehow played a soft schedule even though they woild have beaten three top five teams. They end up with a top 10 SOS but didn't play anyone. Best way to shut down the "narrative" is to beat Bama. Otherwise, it sounds like my friends from L7U.... excuses beng made before games are played. Just my thoughts...

Bama is boss.... This year, they'd beat anyone you want to put on their schedule.....

That said... I do have a problem with 3-4 byes in a year that allow them basically more practice time, more rest, less opportunity for injuries, and automatic wins. The chance of them winning would decrease if you swapped out Ark St, LA, and the Citadel with decent opponents... or hey, maybe travel to play a power 5 in a true road game. It's been like what, 7 years since Bama played an OoC P5 as a true visitor.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Bama is boss.... This year, they'd beat anyone you want to put on their schedule.....

That said... I do have a problem with 3-4 byes in a year that allow them basically more practice time, more rest, less opportunity for injuries, and automatic wins. The chance of them winning would decrease if you swapped out Ark St, LA, and the Citadel with decent opponents... or hey, maybe travel to play a power 5 in a true road game. It's been like what, 7 years since Bama played an OoC P5 as a true visitor.

Don't necessarily disagree but to play devil's advocate... what would Notre Dame's record be year over year in the SEC West? And you can factor in the 3-4 byes that you mentioned.

 

[Rack Em]

Don't necessarily disagree but to play devil's advocate... what would Notre Dam'e record be year over year in the SEC West? And you can factor in the 3-4 byes that you mentioned.

15-0

 

[NDRock]

Don't necessarily disagree but to play devil's advocate... what would Notre Dam'e record be year over year in the SEC West? And you can factor in the 3-4 byes that you mentioned.

Depends on who we replace. If we take your schedule, we’d probably have similar results to what we’ve had (not your record).

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

I don't necessarily disagree with the playoff committee being subjective. But we don't really know how good or bad Bama really is right now. They are beating opponents at a rate that reminds me of the Oklahoma teams from a decade ago. I do think that Bama gets the benefit of the doubt as defending champs and until someone proves otherwise, then I don't see them moving off the #1 spot. Their toughest games are ahead so we will see if they make it through or not.

That's fair but personally I think the strength of record is the single best metric to approximate what each team has accomplished during the season. If I heard correctly, the last 4 college football playoffs (2014-2017) included 15/16 teams with top 4 SOR. Meaning there was only one team that finished outside to top 4 SOR at the end of the season that made the playoffs (OSU in either 2014 or 2016 I think).

As of right now
SOR
1. Clemson
2. ND
3. LSU
4. Bama

It still has the right 4 just more closely approximates what has actually been accomplished this year.

 

[T Town Tommy]

That's fair but personally I think the strength of record is the single best metric to approximate what each team has accomplished during the season. If I heard correctly, the last 4 college football playoffs (2014-2017) included 15/16 teams with top 4 SOR. Meaning there was only one team that finished outside to top 4 SOR at the end of the season that made the playoffs (OSU in either 2014 or 2016 I think).

As of right now
SOR
1. Clemson
2. ND
3. LSU
4. Bama

It still has the right 4 just more closely approximates what has actually been accomplished this year.

As of right now, I would not disagree with that ranking.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Depends on who we replace. If we take your schedule, we’d probably have similar results to what we’ve had (not your record).

Replace a team like Arkansas. They would not be a threat to either Bama or Notre Dame most years.

 

[Irish#1]

Honestly if we go 11-1 and our only loss is to Syracuse in a close game I don't see how Notre Dame is left out considering if Syracuse beats us they most likely move up somewhere into the top 12-15 range in the rankings. They currently rank 19th.

Everyone had predicted ND to be ranked 3rd in the initial poll, yet they got passed by a one loss team. That should be your starting point when trying to figure this thing out.

 

[NDRock]

Replace a team like Arkansas. They would not be a threat to either Bama or Notre Dame most years.

I'll just go with last year as the results are already completed. Arkansas' schedule in 2017 was as follows, best team to easiest.

Alabama - #2
TCU - #9
Auburn - #10
LSU - #18
Miss. ST. - #19
South Car. - NR (9-4)
Missouri - NR (7-6)
Texas A&M - NR (7-6)
Ole Miss - NR (6-6)
New Mexico - NR (7-6)
Florida A&M - NR (3-9)
Coastal Car. - NR (3-9)

Notre Dame played:

Georgia - #2
USC - #12
Miami - #13
MSU - #15
LSU - #18
Stanford - #20
NC State - #23
Wake - NR (8-5)
BC - NR (7-6)
Navy - NR (7-6)
UNC- NR (3-9)
Temple - NR (7-6)
Miami (Oh) - NR (5-7)

I think both schedules are fairly similar. Notre Dame played more ranked teams (7-5) with one of them coming in the bowl. We lost to 3 of the ranked teams on our schedule and beat the other 4. If we played Arkansas' schedule we lose to Bama and probably another ranked team but at worst we finish 10-3 on the year. IMO.

 

[Irish YJ]

Don't necessarily disagree but to play devil's advocate... what would Notre Dame's record be year over year in the SEC West? And you can factor in the 3-4 byes that you mentioned.

Well, if we are in the SEC West, and we had 3-4 byes,.... that means we likely stopped caring about academics too. So if all that is a fair assumption, our recruiting would be a lot better, but we'd be second every year to a Satan coached Bama lol. But, if all that did happen, Satan would jump ship and come to ND and be a good Catholic, so really, ND would win the West every year.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

IMO, scUM could easily lose to PSU and OSU to end the season, and even our one very good win, just looks like a decent home win.

This has been my recurring wet-dream.

Get out of my head, YJ.

 

[Irish YJ]

This has been my recurring wet-dream.

Get out of my head, YJ.

Not sure how comfortable I feel about being in your head when you're having a wet dream.

 

[IrishFaninTX]

In a perfect world, scUM loses a close one to PSU but then beats tOSU and both teams will have 2 losses which will help us if we drop 1

 

[ab2cmiller]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My man Herbie claims to have nailed the top six: “Yeah, that’s exactly the six that I add. I had LSU there at 3, just a little bit ahead of Notre Dame.”<br><br>Come on, Kirk. Pretty sure the helmets were organized by your prediction. They were corrected during the commercial break. &#55357;&#56834; <a href="https://t.co/g206KjkQXD">pic.twitter.com/g206KjkQXD</a></p>— Tom Loy (@TomLoy247) <a href="https://twitter.com/TomLoy247/status/1057418061190434817?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 30, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Blaise]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My man Herbie claims to have nailed the top six: “Yeah, that’s exactly the six that I add. I had LSU there at 3, just a little bit ahead of Notre Dame.”<br><br>Come on, Kirk. Pretty sure the helmets were organized by your prediction. They were corrected during the commercial break. <a href="https://t.co/g206KjkQXD">pic.twitter.com/g206KjkQXD</a></p>— Tom Loy (@TomLoy247) <a href="https://twitter.com/TomLoy247/status/1057418061190434817?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 30, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Tom Loy is an idiot.. They were ranked by the AP poll and then switched to the PC poll because that is what everyone goes by starting this week.

Herbie was on GET UP Tuesday morning saying his top four was Bama, Clem, LSU, and ND and I got super annoyed...

 

[Blaise]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">After WEEK 9 my new top 4!<br>1-<a href="https://twitter.com/AlabamaFTBL?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AlabamaFTBL</a> <br>2-<a href="https://twitter.com/ClemsonFB?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ClemsonFB</a> <br>3-<a href="https://twitter.com/LSUfootball?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@LSUfootball</a> <br>4-<a href="https://twitter.com/NDFootball?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NDFootball</a> <br>Next 2<a href="https://twitter.com/UMichFootball?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@UMichFootball</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/FootballUGA?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FootballUGA</a></p>— Kirk Herbstreit (@KirkHerbstreit) <a href="https://twitter.com/KirkHerbstreit/status/1056430257442566144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 28, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[ickythump1225]

And if the narrative holds true, they will not have beaten anyone after winning Sat night in Red Stick. Then, the narrative will continue if they make the conference championship and beat Ga. Then the narrative will continue and they will have not beaten anyone if they win the first playoff game. The narrative then changes if they win the NC and they somehow played a soft schedule even though they woild have beaten three top five teams. They end up with a top 10 SOS but didn't play anyone. Best way to shut down the "narrative" is to beat Bama. Otherwise, it sounds like my friends from L7U.... excuses beng made before games are played. Just my thoughts...

Poor, poor Alabama. Almost as oppressed as Patriots fans.

I think you're confusing the argument. If Alabama wins out through the SECCG obviously they would have beaten some really good teams. I'm talking about right now. Alabama does not hold their ranking due to their resume but due to the committee's love affair with them.

I'm not even saying that Alabama isn't the "true #1" team in the country. I think they're the best, most talented team in the nation. What I'm saying is they're ranked #1 for reasons the committee explicitly said 4 years ago wouldn't be factored in (past seasons) and very subjective metrics that they said would just be a factor, not THE factor (eye test).

I also feel like this is going to encourage teams to go away from the 1 tough OOC opponent system they've gone to and just go back to scheduling all garbage like they used to under the BCS because the committee is (inadvertently perhaps) encouraging this.

 

[ickythump1225]

Replace a team like Arkansas. They would not be a threat to either Bama or Notre Dame most years.

That's a bullshit standard when you're trying to compare how we would do in the SECW vs. how you have done. You don't have to to play yourselves. The only way to make an apple to apple comparison is to give us your schedule.

 

[Blaise]

Poor, poor Alabama. Almost as oppressed as Patriots fans.

I think you're confusing the argument. If Alabama wins out through the SECCG obviously they would have beaten some really good teams. I'm talking about right now. Alabama does not hold their ranking due to their resume but due to the committee's love affair with them.

I'm not even saying that Alabama isn't the "true #1" team in the country. I think they're the best, most talented team in the nation. What I'm saying is they're ranked #1 for reasons the committee explicitly said 4 years ago wouldn't be factored in (past seasons) and very subjective metrics that they said would just be a factor, not THE factor (eye test).

I also feel like this is going to encourage teams to go away from the 1 tough OOC opponent system they've gone to and just go back to scheduling all garbage like they used to under the BCS because the committee is (inadvertently perhaps) encouraging this.

I don't think you can use Bama as the example. If this was the BCS system, they would be #1 as every poll has them #1. Look at ND. Their schedule was soft (Not their fault) and was hopped by a 1 loss team. I don't think you can schedule easier thinking it doesn't matter because LSU's 6 wins over teams with plus .500 records mattered.

 

[OhioIrish31]

Don't necessarily disagree but to play devil's advocate... what would Notre Dame's record be year over year in the SEC West? And you can factor in the 3-4 byes that you mentioned.

Somewhere around 22-0 of course.