2018 Bowl Projections

[Legacy]

You can now bet on whether these 60 teams — including even Tennessee! — will make the Playoff
(SBNation Jul 24, 2018)

IE 2018 Record Prediction

 

[ACamp1900]

We want Central Florida!!!!!

 

[condoms SUCk]

Cotton Bowl:
Ohio St vs Notre Dame
or
Clemson vs. Notre Dame

I do not want Bama in the semi's, no way, no how.

side note- I am moving to Dallas at the end of Oct, hence my desire for the Cotton bowl.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Is it flawed logic for me to think that I'd rather have ND lose to Alabama in the Playoff than to beat UCF in a New Year's Six bowl game?

Just seems like a more prestigious match up, and we can say "We're a playoff caliber team." Just food for thought, wondered what you guys think.

 

[ACamp1900]

Is it flawed logic for me to think that I'd rather have ND lose to Alabama in the Playoff than to beat UCF in a New Year's Six bowl game?

Yes

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Yes

Do explain.

 

[ACamp1900]

Do explain.

ND has not won a major bowl game in a quarter century... if the idea is that getting the 'Ned Betty Deliverance treatment' in the playoffs on national television is somehow better than winning a major bowl all because of the opponent(s) involved then yes, your logic is flawed.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

ND has not won a major bowl game in a quarter century... if the idea is that getting the 'Ned Betty Deliverance treatment' in the playoffs on national television is somehow better than winning a major bowl all because of the opponent(s) involved then yes, your logic is flawed.

My logic is flawed based on your assumption that a date with Alabama would inevitably end in embarrassing fashion.

If we went toe to toe with Bama and lost respectively, on that stage, I think there's an argument to be made for both.

I don't think there's much to be said about beating UCF when they haven't played anybody. I don't see UGA fans still bragging about shellacking Colt Brennan led Hawaii.

MSU can hold the fact that they have a playoff appearance over our head.

Sorry I don't get overly excited about beating a Group of 5 team who has one of the worst SOS's in the country. We beat them, nobody gives a $hit, except for us because we finally broke the "glass ceiling" of a NY6 game. If we lose to a group of 5 team with a full month to prepare for, we are a national laughing stock.

 

[ACamp1900]

My logic is flawed based on your assumption that a date with Alabama would inevitably end in embarrassing fashion.

If we went toe to toe with Bama and lost respectively, on that stage, I think there's an argument to be made for both.

I don't think there's much to be said about beating UCF when they haven't played anybody. I don't see UGA fans still bragging about shellacking Colt Brennan led Hawaii.

MSU can hold the fact that they have a playoff appearance over our head.

Sorry I don't get overly excited about beating a Group of 5 team who has one of the worst SOS's in the country. We beat them, nobody gives a $hit, except for us because we finally broke the "glass ceiling" of a NY6 game. If we lose to a group of 5 team with a full month to prepare for, we are a national laughing stock.

They (UGA) have a big old trophy in their trophy case and no one cares a lick that it was against Hawaii... just about every single major program in the country has a big bowl win like that in the last 25 years.... except ND. No one gives a shit who you beat ultimately... you get to sell "We won the Sugar Bowl" and that sounds a lot better than "We got curb stomped again"... you're the one who came up with losing to Bama...


So yeah, what this ultimately comes down to is I'd rather win a big game than lose one... as we all should... call me crazy.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

2011: Team is 0-2, looks destined to play in a crappy bowl, and all the talk leading up to USC debacle that year is how ND can still make the Fiesta Bowl and play a good opponent


2018: Team is 6-0, looks destined to go to playoffs, and all the talk is about how making the playoffs would be a disaster because Bama


Nobody is getting younger. Lets go for it!!!!




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[ulukinatme]

My logic is flawed based on your assumption that a date with Alabama would inevitably end in embarrassing fashion.

If we went toe to toe with Bama and lost respectively, on that stage, I think there's an argument to be made for both.

I don't think there's much to be said about beating UCF when they haven't played anybody. I don't see UGA fans still bragging about shellacking Colt Brennan led Hawaii.

MSU can hold the fact that they have a playoff appearance over our head.

Sorry I don't get overly excited about beating a Group of 5 team who has one of the worst SOS's in the country. We beat them, nobody gives a $hit, except for us because we finally broke the "glass ceiling" of a NY6 game. If we lose to a group of 5 team with a full month to prepare for, we are a national laughing stock.

By the same token, do any of us brag that we got beat up by Alabama in the 2012 NC game? LSU may not be Alabama but I'm more likely to brag about 2 wins against LSU in recent bowl games over bringing up that 2012 NC game.

Your scenario assumes we go toe to to with Alabama, when very few teams have consistently been able to go toe to toe with them the last decade. Even if we're playing very good right now, it's highly unlikely we're going to keep the game close against Bama much less win. I'm not being a pessimist, I'm just being a realist. They're deeper, they consistently have one of the best if not THE best recruiting class each year, they manage their roster better, they have the very best facilities, and they have less academic liabilities. There's no facet of preparation or roster strength that they don't have an edge on in comparison to us. Does Alabama still lose games despite the above? Yes, but it's very seldom. It's rare that a team beats Alabama without Alabama beating Alabama first. You need luck, and you can't count on luck.

 

[ACamp1900]

2011: Team is 0-2, looks destined to play in a crappy bowl, and all the talk leading up to USC debacle that year is how ND can still make the Fiesta Bowl and play a good opponent


2018: Team is 6-0, looks destined to go to playoffs, and all the talk is about how making the playoffs would be a disaster because Bama


Nobody is getting younger. Lets go for it!!!!




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is a different dialogue tho. The original post I responded to stated it would be better to lose to Bama than to beat UCF... I really shouldn't have to go into why that's dumb.

If someone were to say, "Let's take a shot in the playoffs,... who knows,... we might just win"... you get nothing from me.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

This is a different dialogue tho. The original post I responded to stated it would be better to lose to Bama than to beat UCF... I really shouldn't have to go into why that's dumb.



If someone were to say, "Let's take a shot in the playoffs,... who knows,... we might just win"... you get nothing from me.

I got ya, and agree. A win is always better than a loss, but lets add a wrinkle:

Would you rather:

A) Pound the piss out of someone in NY6 bowl

B) Narrowly edge Clemson in CFP playoff semis, then get THROTTLED in title game by Bama, on a 2012 level


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[ACamp1900]

I got ya, and agree. A win is always better than a loss, but lets add a wrinkle:

Would you rather:

A) Pound the piss out of someone in NY6 bowl

B) Narrowly edge Clemson in CFP playoff semis, then get THROTTLED in title game by Bama, on a 2012 level

In a world where choices like that are known and cut and dry I'd take the the big bowl win every time... end the season on a huge note that ND hasn't experienced during the lifetime of our current players.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

In a world where choices like that are known and cut and dry I'd take the the big bowl win every time... end the season on a huge note that ND hasn't experienced during the lifetime of our current players.

I guess it depends on the opponent. Beating UCF does nothing for me. Beating Penn State or somebody like that would.




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[ACamp1900]

I guess it depends on the opponent. Beating UCF does nothing for me. Beating Penn State or somebody like that would.




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For me the opponent matters fuckall... it's a huge bowl win regardless of the opponent.

If the choice is take a shot in the playoff or take a shot in the big bowl... then yeah we should all take a shot at the natty, especially with THIS team.

 

[ACamp1900]

Playing off the recent dialogues here...

What if the playoff ends up:

West Virginia
Notre Dame
UCF
Colorado

We beat UCF and Colorado for the championship. Stranger shit has happened... do we complain that it wasn't against bama tOSU and Clemson if we win a natty that way??? Nope. We won the natty, period.

 

[ulukinatme]

Playing off the recent dialogues here...

What if the playoff ends up:

West Virginia
Notre Dame
UCF
Colorado

We beat UCF and Colorado for the championship. Stranger shit has happened... do we complain that it wasn't against bama tOSU and Clemson if we win a natty that way??? Nope. We won the natty, period.

This. They'll never keep an SEC team out of the playoff, but that would be a damn dream. No Alabama, OSU, or Clemson? You can't ask for a better scenario. 2012 too many people were happy the night both Oregon and Kansas State lost so we moved up from #3 to #1...but it also doomed us. Either team I think we would have had an edge on, but we wound up with Alabama instead. To make matters worse people were starting the "We want 'Bama!" chants here. Yeah, that worked out well.

 

[Legacy]

If Georgia wins the SEC championship, we could face them and play the rematch in the third game in 2019.

 

[ulukinatme]

If Georgia wins the SEC championship, we could face them and play the rematch in the third game in 2019.

I'd feel pretty good about playing Georgia this year. Frome has a year of experience under his belt, but Wimbush's passing woes cost us that game last year. Our OL may have taken a small step back, but I think our receiving group is improved, QB play is improved, TEs are improved, and for the most part the defense is improved. I think we'd have a good chance of pulling off the win given the circumstances.

 

[ACamp1900]

This. They'll never keep an SEC team out of the playoff, but that would be a damn dream. No Alabama, OSU, or Clemson? You can't ask for a better scenario. 2012 too many people were happy the night both Oregon and Kansas State lost so we moved up from #3 to #1...but it also doomed us. Either team I think we would have had an edge on, but we wound up with Alabama instead. To make matters worse people were starting the "We want 'Bama!" chants here. Yeah, that worked out well.

Ha, I remember being down about KSU....

 

[Irish YJ]

decent article from ESPN.
Not all undefeated records are created equal

3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-0)

Remaining SOS: No. 64
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 24 at USC

FPI says: Notre Dame has at least a 70 percent chance to win each of its six remaining games and a 38 percent chance to finish undefeated (second-clearest path to an undefeated regular season in the FBS, behind Clemson).

Playoff predictor says: If the Irish run the table, they would have a 95.9 percent chance to reach the playoff and a 13.1 percent chance to win it all. If Notre Dame loses to USC, its chances would drop to 59.5 percent.

The Irish have the résumé and are passing the eye test, thanks to the emergence of Ian Book at quarterback. Notre Dame was 70th in the FBS in offensive efficiency in its first three games and is 14th since Book became the starter. Coach Brian Kelly also has praised the maturity of the team and its ability to handle the attention that increases with each win.

Bottom line: It's highly unlikely an undefeated Notre Dame would be left out of the top four. If the Irish lose, it opens the door for debate, and they would have to hope that Stanford can rebound in the second half of the season and Michigan stays ranked and in the hunt for the Big Ten title.

 

[Irish Insanity]

^^^Thank you Rees

 

[Irish YJ]

^^^Thank you Rees

With how well Book looked from his first game starting, I really wonder what the dynamics have been between BK, Chip Long, and Rees during the off-season, and through the first three games. Was one or more pushing for Book the whole time?

 

[Irish Insanity]

This is the most prepared a QB has looked to come in and take over in some time. Rees has to be a part of that.

 

[Meacon Irish]

With how well Book looked from his first game starting, I really wonder what the dynamics have been between BK, Chip Long, and Rees during the off-season, and through the first three games. Was one or more pushing for Book the whole time?

I can't remember where I read, maybe Pete Sampson...?, but I am pretty sure I've heard from at least one reporter that Chip Long was pushing for Book all camp. I'd like to think that Tommy was working with all quarterbacks without a preference, as he should be more about development than anything.

 

[ACamp1900]

This is the most prepared a QB has looked to come in and take over in some time. Rees has to be a part of that.

Wait, does he get any heat for the starter needing to get pulled???

 

[Irish YJ]

I can't remember where I read, maybe Pete Sampson...?, but I am pretty sure I've heard from at least one reporter that Chip Long was pushing for Book all camp. I'd like to think that Tommy was working with all quarterbacks without a preference, as he should be more about development than anything.

In my mind, I think BK made the decision, and faulted on the side of loyalty. I do buy that Long pushed for Book, and the balance it brought. I think Reesus probably was in Book's camp too (quietly).

 

[stlnd01]

By the same token, do any of us brag that we got beat up by Alabama in the 2012 NC game? LSU may not be Alabama but I'm more likely to brag about 2 wins against LSU in recent bowl games over bringing up that 2012 NC game.

No one brags about the Alabama game, but I have a set of pint glasses celebrating the 12-0 season that got us there. Going regular-season undefeated - which is what it will likely take for us to make the playoffs - is worth bragging about. Going 7-5 to make a pre-New-Year's ESPN filler game against LSU, not so much.

I also think the playoff changes the dynamic of bragging rights in college football. The NY6 bowls don't mean what they used to. You're either a playoff team or you aren't.

 

[Bishop2b5]

My two cents as an outsider: I'd rather make it to the playoffs and lose than not make it and win a NYD6 game.