2012 Season--Optimistic?

[phork]

Phork please point out the losses to me. Even worst case I can't see more than 5, and you've chimed in many threads saying 6-6.

Navy W
Purdue W
Michigan State 50-50 L @ MSU
Michigan 50-50 L Can't stop Denard
Miami 50-50 W
Stanford L
BYU W
Oklahoma L
Pittsburgh W
Boston College W
Wake Forest L (Typical ND WTF loss)
USC L

Please tell me who we lose to and please provide your reasoning.

MSU under Dantonio has built a program, a program where they have the next man in and ready to go. MSUs defense is always stout. Defense wins more games than offense, they can also run the ball.

UM is UM. Since that 7 turnover debacle RichRod had, we have not beat them. Hoke has sold his soul to the devil.

OU & USC are a given. We weren't that impressive against Wake last year, I don't expect things to change, this game could go either way.

Stanford despite the absence of Luck will still be a solid team. Can't stop their TEs and have a decent running game.

I agree with phork about the LB core... it is not that strong, even with our best player being a member of it...


also, this is Notre Dame football... I would say, explain to me how they lost to Syracuse, UCONN, USF, UNC, BC, Navy... and so on... all while winning exactly zero big games that they could hang their hat on...

The problem is so many of our fanbase still see "ND" and see a top tier program that should always just beat these teams... simply not the case anymore...

hopefully BK is changing that, clearly he has not done so yet.

I see 7-8 wins

Couldn't agree more, less the win total.

I'm with ya. The defense is going to be respectable. Anytime a Dline is dominant as ours will be, good things will happen. Secondary will probably be average, Landry Jones and Matt Barkley will give us fits, but still...we'll be in EVERY game.

The QB situation can only get better. Ive got to believe that Hendrix/Golson have a solid grasp on the playbook, and what they don't know can be improvised by running the ball. Something Rees couldn't do. If Rees dropped back, the play was dead if noone was open, or he was confused.

If anything our inept offense hurt our defense, I don't see that changing.

 

[returnofthemack]

LB? Not sure if serious. All we lose is Flemming who had a good season but is replaceable, hopefully by Ishaq. CB will be better than expected, aided by great pressure to the QB and solid safety play from Slaughter and hopefully Motta.

Phork please point out the losses to me. Even worst case I can't see more than 5, and you've chimed in many threads saying 6-6.

Navy
Purdue
Michigan State
Michigan
Miami
Stanford
BYU
Oklahoma
Pittsburgh
Boston College
Wake Forest
USC

Please tell me who we lose to and please provide your reasoning.

W: Purdue, Pitt, BC, Wake
Toss-Up: Navy (Succumb to hype; Niumatalolo will prob have a few new formations that Diaco won't be able to adjust to during the game); MSU; scUM; Miami; Stanford; BYU
L: Oklahoma, USC

Seeing as how ND is so great in toss-up games, 6-6 isn't far-fetched, especially if Rees is starting.

 

[Riddickulous]

7-8 wins.

I'm excited to see the young talent get on the field, but not about the season overall.

 

[Rudy89]

I think we will go 6-6 maybe 7-5 but id be content with that if we see some good development out of golson. Honestly though its going to be a rough year. I see UM USC MSU and OU beating us and we will lose at least one game we shouldnt. But you never know what happens in the world of college football, I wont wish for injury on anyone but maybe Barkley and Denard will get hurt and we can have a nice freshamn surprise on our side. But not trying to be the typical pessimst rudy but I do feel that anything above 8 wins is a tad bit too optimistic but God bless ya if you think that Id much rather you be right than me. The thing is if we dont make the BCS what bowls are there left for us since we used our Champs Sports bid this season? I know if a bowl is too early in the bowl season we wont accept it because of ND finals and we wont practice during finals week.

 

[TerryTate]

You guys are crazy... 7 wins?

W Navy
W Purdue
W MSU
L Michigan
W Miami
W Stanford
W BYU
L Oklahoma
W Pitt
W BC
W Wake Forest
L USC

That's 9-3 with a loss to Michigan. Stanford loses Luck. Miami is garbage. Oklahoma will be nasty at Norman. USC will probably be a loss.

A lot of you are blowing this schedule out of proportion.

 

[Rudy89]

You guys are crazy... 7 wins?

W Navy
W Purdue
W MSU
L Michigan
W Miami
W Stanford
W BYU
L Oklahoma
W Pitt
W BC
W Wake Forest
L USC

That's 9-3 with a loss to Michigan. Stanford loses Luck. Miami is garbage. Oklahoma will be nasty at Norman. USC will probably be a loss.

A lot of you are blowing this schedule out of proportion.

Maybe not so much the schedule being blown out of proportion as our habit of losing games that we had no business losing in recent years.

 

[TerryTate]

Maybe not so much the schedule being blown out of proportion as our habit of losing games that we had no business losing in recent years.

Yeah, you gotta factor that in somehow.

 

[Rocky2820]

Knowing especially that USC and Oklahoma are going to be nasty, nasty games, I am more interested in getting the right players on the field and player development than I am in any kind of potential BCS hype that we dealt with this year. 2012 should be a brick-laying foundation year for the future. As for wins/losses in 2012, I'll say 8-4.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

That's 9-3 with a loss to Michigan. Stanford loses Luck. Miami is garbage. Oklahoma will be nasty at Norman. USC will probably be a loss.

That would all make sense if we had a QB. We don't.

Best case scenario: Goldrix starts and drops a few winnable games but gains enough experience to make a BCS run in 2013 or 2014.

Worst case scenario: Rees hangs onto the starting job, the offense's ceiling remains unchanged, and the development of Goldrix gets pushed off until the end of 2012 or 2013.

Either way, I don't see us sniffing 9-wins because we won't have a QB who'll be ready in time.

 

[TerryTate]

Wager on Golson?

 

[NDTampa]

You guys are crazy... 7 wins?

W Navy
W Purdue
W MSU
L Michigan
W Miami
W Stanford
W BYU
L Oklahoma
W Pitt
W BC
W Wake Forest
L USC

That's 9-3 with a loss to Michigan. Stanford loses Luck. Miami is garbage. Oklahoma will be nasty at Norman. USC will probably be a loss.

A lot of you are blowing this schedule out of proportion.

I have been thinking this same thing. Maybe we lose 1 of the games you have us winning but thats still 8-4. This 6-6 season thing seems ridiculous.

Reps

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Wager on Golson?

I pray to jeebus that Golson starts against Navy. I'd happily give away all my vBucks to make it happen.

But after the Crist/ Rees saga, Kelly seems to want to give each guy a fair shake before definitively moving on. I don't see him passing over Hendrix completely, and I'm terrified that he'll stick with Tommy for some reason.

 

[notredomer23]

What we need to have happen is Golson absolutely kill it in the spring and have him named starter out of spring because he needs all the reps he can get. Or even Hendrix, but it has to be one of them because with Rees we have a lower ceiling.

 

[FLDomer]

You guys are crazy... 7 wins?

W Navy
W Purdue
W MSU
L Michigan
W Miami
W Stanford
W BYU
L Oklahoma
W Pitt
W BC
W Wake Forest
L USC

That's 9-3 with a loss to Michigan. Stanford loses Luck. Miami is garbage. Oklahoma will be nasty at Norman. USC will probably be a loss.

A lot of you are blowing this schedule out of proportion.

AGREED!!! Thank you Terry!!

Navy W (alot of this year but just in Ireland)
Purdue W (Not much talent and depth and as long as Hope is there I feel good)
MSU W(Losing Cousin, Cunningham, Martin, Rumors bell may leave, 2 Olinemen, Worthy, Adams.)
UM W (luck of the wolverine runs out next year! Hemingway is gone and not there to bail out Denard's hand punts, a young oline will get owned)
Miami W (Trades Harris for Harris Jr, loses L. Miller, 1 olineman, 2 starting WR, all but i dlineman, Spence and almost entire defensive back field)
Stanford W (Loses to Olineman (draft) luck,....well i am not sure with them but i got a good feeling)
BYU W (its byu)
OU L (it will be close because Jones sucks without broyles and a running game, Travis Lewis gone too. I Give the edge to OU cause Norman is a tough place to win)
Pitt (New coach and not enought talent to score enough, will shut down graham)
BC W
WF W
USC L (they will win a NT nxt yr)

 

[NDinL.A.]

I will say this: Before you guys pencil in a win vs. MSU, think again. Yes, they lose some key offensive players (as do we), but they have owned us for wuite some time, we are playing at their place, they will want revenge, and most improtantly, even without Worthy, they have a NASTY defense coming back. Probably the best in the Big 10/12/whatever.

We have been penciling in a W vs. UM for the past 3 years, and look where that landed us. I for one am not overconfident at all that we'll beat MSU next year, breaking in a (hopefully) new, young QB. That game is a toss-up to me in the same way many other games are...

 

[stlnd01]

Assuming a Goldrix QB scenario...

Navy - W
Purdue - W
MSU - toss
Michigan - toss
Miami - W
Stanford - toss
BYU - W
Oklahoma - L
Pitt - W
BC - W
Wake Forest - W
USC - L

Win two of the three toss-ups and we're 9-3. Lose two of three and we're 8-4. Win all three and we're BCS-bound. Lose all three and 2013 becomes very important to Brian Kelly's professional development. Barring freak goal line fumbles and multiple-hour weather delays, I don't think we lose any games we're "not supposed to."
A lot depends on our defense continuing to improve and more offensive skill players stepping up. Start Rees and this all gets thrown out the window.

 

[irishff1014]

I will say this: Before you guys pencil in a win vs. MSU, think again. Yes, they lose some key offensive players (as do we), but they have owned us for wuite some time, we are playing at their place, they will want revenge, and most improtantly, even without Worthy, they have a NASTY defense coming back. Probably the best in the Big 10/12/whatever.

We have been penciling in a W vs. UM for the past 3 years, and look where that landed us. I for one am not overconfident at all that we'll beat MSU next year, breaking in a (hopefully) new, young QB. That game is a toss-up to me in the same way many other games are...

I agree here a good defense like they have will make a young QB make more mistakes

 

[phork]

I will say this: Before you guys pencil in a win vs. MSU, think again. Yes, they lose some key offensive players (as do we), but they have owned us for wuite some time, we are playing at their place, they will want revenge, and most improtantly, even without Worthy, they have a NASTY defense coming back. Probably the best in the Big 10/12/whatever.

We have been penciling in a W vs. UM for the past 3 years, and look where that landed us. I for one am not overconfident at all that we'll beat MSU next year, breaking in a (hopefully) new, young QB. That game is a toss-up to me in the same way many other games are...

So list your predictions.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I will say this: Before you guys pencil in a win vs. MSU, think again. Yes, they lose some key offensive players (as do we), but they have owned us for wuite some time, we are playing at their place, they will want revenge, and most improtantly, even without Worthy, they have a NASTY defense coming back. Probably the best in the Big 10/12/whatever.

We have been penciling in a W vs. UM for the past 3 years, and look where that landed us. I for one am not overconfident at all that we'll beat MSU next year, breaking in a (hopefully) new, young QB. That game is a toss-up to me in the same way many other games are...

Statistically, MSU has the most powerful home field advantage in CFB. Their home winning % since 1991 is 66%, which is 33% higher than their away winning % of 33%. No other team has a greater differential between its home and away winning %s.

We should be very concerned about playing against MSU's defense in their house, even with all the big name losses.

 

[NDinL.A.]

So list your predictions.

Way too early. It's fun and all and I get why people do it, but really, it's pointless for me until we see who our QB is, or at least how he performs in the Spring Game. Until then, we could go anywhere from 6 to 10 wins IMO.

I'm just saying, penciling in a W against MSU, which almost everyone is doing, is pretty foolish IMO. And most of it is because Cousins and Cunningham are gone. Well, it's not like we don't have major QB issues of our own, plus Floyd and Gray are gone, plus the right side of our line, plus 3/4 of our DBs, a pedestrian WR corps, etc etc etc. Like MSU, we have some major holes to fill as well...

 

[irishpat183]

I am a heart and soul lifer... but also a dead set realist... i expect 7-8 wins until ND proves it can do otherwise...

simple as that

Exactly. Let the "spin doctors" talk themselves into thinking we're gonna win 9-10 games.....

Until I see some better QB play, and see what we're gonna have in the secondary, I'm not touching 10 wins.

I would love for them to prove me wrong. But I'm tired of pissing myself off with unrealistic expectations of, as of right now, a mediocre program.

 

[irishpat183]

Assuming a Goldrix QB scenario...

Navy - W
Purdue - W
MSU - toss
Michigan - toss
Miami - W
Stanford - toss
BYU - W
Oklahoma - L
Pitt - W
BC - W
Wake Forest - W
USC - L

Win two of the three toss-ups and we're 9-3. Lose two of three and we're 8-4. Win all three and we're BCS-bound. Lose all three and 2013 becomes very important to Brian Kelly's professional development. Barring freak goal line fumbles and multiple-hour weather delays, I don't think we lose any games we're "not supposed to."
A lot depends on our defense continuing to improve and more offensive skill players stepping up. Start Rees and this all gets thrown out the window.

-UofM is a L...Denard is gonna eat us alive, again. There is nothing that says we should win this game. What has changed your mind??
-BYU is a toss at best... 10-3 team with the Leading passer and WR coming back with a pretty decent defense.
-

 

[notredomer23]

-UofM is a L...Denard is gonna eat us alive, again. There is nothing that says we should win this game. What has changed your mind??
-BYU is a toss at best... 10-3 team with the Leading passer and WR coming back with a pretty decent defense.
-

Michigan loses 11 starters, including 2 of their best defensive players in Mike Martin and Van Bergen. It is not a L. We should have beaten them last year, this year it is at home. It is a Toss.

BYU played absolutely nobody. There losses were to Texas who was horrible earlier in the season, Utah(by 44) and TCU. Their best victory was a 3 point victory against either 7-6 Utah St. or Tulsa. They will be good, but we are simply better.

 

[irishpat183]

Michigan loses 11 starters, including 2 of their best defensive players in Mike Martin and Van Bergen. It is not a L. We should have beaten them last year, this year it is at home. It is a Toss.

BYU played absolutely nobody. There losses were to Texas who was horrible earlier in the season, Utah(by 44) and TCU. Their best victory was a 3 point victory against either 7-6 Utah St. or Tulsa. They will be good, but we are simply better.

-Is Denard Robinson still on the roster?? Then I still think they get the nod. He's the best player on the field on either team and is the difference maker. I agree we "should've" won, but we say that alot and it doesn't mean squat. And our secondary is gonna be a real question....which leads me to BYU. We're gonna have problems with teams like that. I wouldn't count BYU as a "lock".

 

[stlnd01]

-UofM is a L...Denard is gonna eat us alive, again. There is nothing that says we should win this game. What has changed your mind?? -

I didn't say we "should" win it, I said it's a toss-up. Just like the last three years have been.
We're at home. I think Michigan's offense is inconsistent. I think our defense will be better next year than it was this year. And I'm hopeful that by Game Four we'll have settled in to a more versatile offense, and that we won't have five turnovers. I think it's reasonable to consider this a toss-up game.

-BYU is a toss at best... 10-3 team with the Leading passer and WR coming back with a pretty decent defense.
-

Don't know tons about BYU, but a quick look suggests that the best of their 10 wins was probably Tulsa in the bowl game. They beat no ranked opponents and only two not-so-good BCS conference squads.
A "pretty decent" defense against their schedule doesn't tell me much. I think our defense will be tougher than anything they've faced in a while and if our offense isn't in shape by Week 7, we'll have much bigger problems than BYU to deal with. Not saying they suck, but FWIW right now I think we'll be better than them. We'll see.

 

[arrowryan]

I will say this: Before you guys pencil in a win vs. MSU, think again. Yes, they lose some key offensive players (as do we), but they have owned us for wuite some time, we are playing at their place, they will want revenge, and most improtantly, even without Worthy, they have a NASTY defense coming back. Probably the best in the Big 10/12/whatever. We have been penciling in a W vs. UM for the past 3 years, and look where that landed us. I for one am not overconfident at all that we'll beat MSU next year, breaking in a (hopefully) new, young QB. That game is a toss-up to me in the same way many other games are...

I definately see what you're saying but MSU is losing way more offensive fire power than us. They lose Cousins, Cunningham, and Baker. Thats pretty much their whole offense. I think MSU has a down year next year

 

[irishpat183]

I didn't say we "should" win it, I said it's a toss-up. Just like the last three years have been.
We're at home. I think Michigan's offense is inconsistent. I think our defense will be better next year than it was this year. And I'm hopeful that by Game Four we'll have settled in to a more versatile offense, and that we won't have five turnovers. I think it's reasonable to consider this a toss-up game.



Don't know tons about BYU, but a quick look suggests that the best of their 10 wins was probably Tulsa in the bowl game. They beat no ranked opponents and only two not-so-good BCS conference squads.
A "pretty decent" defense against their schedule doesn't tell me much. I think our defense will be tougher than anything they've faced in a while and if our offense isn't in shape by Week 7, we'll have much bigger problems than BYU to deal with. Not saying they suck, but FWIW right now I think we'll be better than them. We'll see.

Fair enough...but you could also point to our schedule and ask "Who did we beat" other than MSU??

And Denard is going to be, next to Monte Ball, the leading Heisman canidate. I know they lose some guys, but because he's staying, I have to go with them. He's that good.

 

[arrowryan]

Fair enough...but you could also point to our schedule and ask "Who did we beat" other than MSU??

And Denard is going to be, next to Monte Ball, the leading Heisman canidate. I know they lose some guys, but because he's staying, I have to go with them. He's that good.

I wouldn't praise Denard too much. He is a terrible passer, he throws up ducks all the time. If it wasn't for his running ability he wouldn't even be a starter

 

[irishpat183]

I wouldn't praise Denard too much. He is a terrible passer, he throws up ducks all the time. If it wasn't for his running ability he wouldn't even be a starter

Oh, I agree...but that running ability is about as good as it gets and it fits that system. He's a god awful passer, yet we still let him complete two big ones to beat us, with a veteran secondary.

 

[NDinL.A.]

I wouldn't praise Denard too much. He is a terrible passer, he throws up ducks all the time. If it wasn't for his running ability he wouldn't even be a starter

Yeah, but unfortunately for us, his running game counts. So BFD if his running ability makes him a starter...guess what? That running ability has helped him beat us twice in a row.

NOw, he does throw up a ton of ducks and he is the luckiest quarterback alive, but that doesn't change the fact that we haven't beaten him...ducks and all. And until he leaves Michigan, we sure as hell better be worried about that game, and we really are in no position to talk ish about Robinson (even though I do it all the time LOL - he sucks as a QB but he kicks major *** as a playmaker).