3. I think this is what I heard on Jaylon Smith, the highly talented Notre Dame linebacker and prospective very high NFL draft choice who suffered that terrible left knee injury in the Fiesta Bowl: Smith, a junior, was very likely to come out in the 2016 draft, and he would have been a top three to five pick if he came out healthy.
One NFL scout who was at the Fiesta Bowl said Saturday he thought Smith was a top-three pick. Another who I spoke with Saturday said of the players he saw this fall, if Smith came out, he’d have been a strong candidate to be the top overall pick. “There is not a defense he would not fit in,” the second scout said. “This is a huge story.”
A bigger-bodied linebacker who plays the run well and could go sideline-to-sideline like an outside ‘backer, Smith now will have to decide whether he wants to stay at Notre Dame and come out, potentially, healthier and higher in the 2017 draft than lower in 2016. Tough decision. Some might look at the Todd Gurley case and say that Gurley tore his ACL and was so immensely talented as a running back that the Rams took him 10th overall in the first round five months after his knee surgery. But there’s no telling how spooked teams would be about Smith, whose injury came almost seven weeks later in the season than Gurley’s.
Now for the after-effects: Why would many/any great players with strong chances to be first or second-round picks stay in college, seeing what happened to Smith? It’s one thing if it’s a player’s strong choice (such as Andrew Luck) because he simply loves the life in college and in college football, and knows even if he gets hurt he’s still going to be a very high pick. But for many, it’s a game of Russian Roulette. “I know this is going to scare guys on the fence about coming out,” said the scout who was at the Fiesta Bowl.
As of Saturday night, 52 junior-eligibles had declared for the 2016 draft, and that doesn’t include most from power schools Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State. The deadline is Jan. 15, four days after the national title game between Alabama and Clemson.