Bowl Projections

[IrishSteelhead]

I told people before the season started we were better than anyone but maybe bama lsu and okla., and I thought we could give them a run for their money but everybody on this site thought I was crazy,do you think I'm still crazy.

I still think there are at least 15 teams better at this moment in time.

 

[Dizzyphil]

Who wasn't impressed with their win over Troy but that win over Div 1aa Wofford was truly impressive, wasn't it?

Auburn is not the quality of last year. And remind me again who FSU has beaten this year? Oh yeah, Louisiana Monroe and Div 1aa Charleston Southern.

Yes, Clemson whipped up on previously unbeaten VT who has sterling wins over Div 1aa Ap St, ECU, Arkansas STATE, and Marshall. zzzzzzz

Like FSU, VT hasn't beaten anybody.

ND hasn't played the number 1 team but their schedule has been tougher. Sagarin rates it as the 5th toughest, better than a field goal tougher than Clemson's #16 toughest.

The only problem I have with this statement is, most on this board agree that USF and UM were/are over-rated. If this is the case, outside of Sparty, who have we beaten?? - Even if we would have beaten USF/UM??? And if we were/are 5-0, do WE deserve to be top 5 or 10 if USF/UM is so over-rated??

got me confrused again..... LOL :banghead2


Diz

 

[IrishAlum1997]

Sagarin SoS rankings:
Wiscy- 117th
Stanford- 68th
Clemson- 16th
ND- 5th

In a hypothetical situation where ND has won out, we would absolutely be ranked ahead of all three of those teams.

Disagree with this statement pretty strongly. Michigan would have ZERO cache without a 28 point 4th quarter against us while they were running the Jimmy Clausen offense. South Florida is exactly what we knew they were at the start of the season. An 8-4 team that will end up 3rd in the conference. Gives our schedule lots of holes.

We'd be 10 or 11, so I guess not that far behind. But that also means Dayne will still be our QB, and head issues are head issues, so who knows when they would've popped up later in the season.

 

[IrishBlood81]

Am I going to have to put you two in the corner?????? :swordfigh

Diz

oooh I unlike swords!!

 

[HereComeTheIrish]

oooh I like swords!!

Probably not the brightest thing to proclaim on an internet message board. I would have looked for a witty pic to post to your response, but didn't feel compelled to since it likely would have let to 2 hours of removing a virus from my computer. The words, "I like swords" should probably never, ever collide in the same sentence....EVER.

 

[IrishBlood81]

Probably not the brightest thing to proclaim on an internet message board. I would have looked for a witty pic to post to your response, but didn't feel compelled to since it likely would have let to 2 hours of removing a virus from my computer. The words, "I like swords" should probably never, ever collide in the same sentence....EVER.

lol yeah not worth the virus for a dumb pic...unless it was a really good dumb pic.
all fixed now
Your the only one who posted those three words together. Jus' sayin'

 

[Riddickulous]

I told people before the season started we were better than anyone but maybe bama lsu and okla., and I thought we could give them a run for their money but everybody on this site thought I was crazy,do you think I'm still crazy.

Yes. We would get absolutely destroyed by the three teams you listed.

I like the progress of this team, but we aren't there yet.

 

[BGIF]

The only problem I have with this statement is, most on this board agree that USF and UM were/are over-rated. If this is the case, outside of Sparty, who have we beaten?? - Even if we would have beaten USF/UM??? And if we were/are 5-0, do WE deserve to be top 5 or 10 if USF/UM is so over-rated??

got me confrused again..... LOL :banghead2


Diz

The post I responded to was NOT about "most on this board agree that USF and USM were/are over-rate." It was about Clemson and had to do with team schedules. I made NO mention of a Top 5 or 10. There may be your confrusion, mixing topics.

Whiskey posted Schedule Strengths which should have ended your confrusion but here's more info showing Sagarin's "Rating" numbers, the school, Strength of Schedule Rank, Strength of Schedule Rating in points. The bold headings are ND, FSU, CL, and VT followed by the teams they have played with their Sagarin Rating as of Oct 1. The Average strength of each teams opponents faced to date and their Sagarin Rating Number appears at the bottom of each team's list. ND has the highest Strength of Schedule, and played the highest average ranked opponents. Clemson is next a smidgeon below ND while FSU and VT schedules are proven farcical.

ND's Strength of Schedule is better than 3 points tougher than Clemson's.
Better than 9 points tougher than FSU's.
Better than 10 points tougher than VT's.

Note than ND's weakest foe is still ranked higher than ANY of VTs. And ND is the only one that didn't fatten up on Div 1aa "opponents".

24 ND SOS #5, 77.94
38 USF
12 UM
33 MSU
39 PIT
89 PU
42.2 Average Opponent Rating


37 FSU SOS #50 68.86
139 Louisiana-Monroe
232 Charleston Southern Div 1aa
4 OU
9 Clemson
71 Average Opponent Rating


9 Clemson SOS #16 74.60
78 Troy
69 Wofford Div 1aa
17 Auburn
37 FSU
16 VT
43.4 Average Opponent Rating


16 VT SOS #64 67.44
99 Appalachian St Div 1aa
98 ECU
93 Arkansas St
90 Marshall
95 Average Opponent Rating

 

[DCirishfan]

We are making huge progress and are about a 22-25 team IMO. We have to get better on D.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Phil Steele's most recent bowl projections still put ND in the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State.

 

[Dizzyphil]

The post I responded to was NOT about "most on this board agree that USF and USM were/are over-rate." It was about Clemson and had to do with team schedules. I made NO mention of a Top 5 or 10. There may be your confrusion, mixing topics.

Whiskey posted Schedule Strengths which should have ended your confrusion but here's more info showing Sagarin's "Rating" numbers, the school, Strength of Schedule Rank, Strength of Schedule Rating in points. The bold headings are ND, FSU, CL, and VT followed by the teams they have played with their Sagarin Rating as of Oct 1. The Average strength of each teams opponents faced to date and their Sagarin Rating Number appears at the bottom of each team's list. ND has the highest Strength of Schedule, and played the highest average ranked opponents. Clemson is next a smidgeon below ND while FSU and VT schedules are proven farcical.

ND's Strength of Schedule is better than 3 points tougher than Clemson's.
Better than 9 points tougher than FSU's.
Better than 10 points tougher than VT's.

Note than ND's weakest foe is still ranked higher than ANY of VTs. And ND is the only one that didn't fatten up on Div 1aa "opponents".

24 ND SOS #5, 77.94
38 USF
12 UM
33 MSU
39 PIT
89 PU
42.2 Average Opponent Rating


37 FSU SOS #50 68.86
139 Louisiana-Monroe
232 Charleston Southern Div 1aa
4 OU
9 Clemson
71 Average Opponent Rating


9 Clemson SOS #16 74.60
78 Troy
69 Wofford Div 1aa
17 Auburn
37 FSU
16 VT
43.4 Average Opponent Rating


16 VT SOS #64 67.44
99 Appalachian St Div 1aa
98 ECU
93 Arkansas St
90 Marshall
95 Average Opponent Rating

I don't have a clue what the hell you are talking about because if you look at what I highlighted was you said the VT and FSU had not beaten anybody, I said basically the same thing about ND, the only team we have beat is MSU. So now I believe you are the one confrused buddy!!!!! LOL

Diz

 

[North Buffalo Irish]

Phil Steele's most recent bowl projections still put ND in the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State.

I will love it if we beat them, love it!

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/YXpUdBlRZe8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[BurningRiver]

Fiesta Bowl, eh? That is a bold prediction right there. That assumes we win out (there is no way in hell a 3-loss team makes the BCS with all the undefeated teams we still have) and Stanford looks better every week.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Phil Steele's most recent bowl projections still put ND in the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State.

He has Stanford in the Alamo Bowl. Reading between the lines, then, he has to be predicting that ND wins out, including a win over Stanford. I normally don't put too much stock into this stuff, but I have to admit to taking some solace in Phil Steele's seeming belief in our chances to win out.

 

[BeauBenken]

I actually told my friend who says he is a fan of Boise State that I would actually like our chances against them because of how well our defense plays against pro-style systems.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Boise would be as good of a matchup as we could get in a BCS bowl, IMO.

 

[Dizzyphil]

Boise would be as good of a matchup as we could get in a BCS bowl, IMO.

I agree. I believe it would be a good measuring stick on what has been accomplished of this year.

Diz

 

[BGIF]

I don't have a clue what the hell you are talking about because if you look at what I highlighted was you said the VT and FSU had not beaten anybody, I said basically the same thing about ND, the only team we have beat is MSU. So now I believe you are the one confrused buddy!!!!! LOL

Diz

VT's BEST win in that list was over #90 Marshall. They had played no one UNDER 90. ND had played no one over 89. How you can compare a win over MSU, a ranked team, to a win over Marshall defies comprehension. Purdue would be undefeated with VT's schedule.

FSU's only wins were over the 139nd and 232nd ranked teams. There are only 120 Div 1 teams. ND's worse win is 40 slots higher than FSU's best. ND's 2nd worse win is also 200 slots higher than FSU's only other win.

The difference should be intuitively obvious to even the most casual observer. You're not confrused if you don't grasp that, diz. You're obtruse.

 

[BurningRiver]

He has Stanford in the Alamo Bowl. Reading between the lines, then, he has to be predicting that ND wins out, including a win over Stanford. I normally don't put too much stock into this stuff, but I have to admit to taking some solace in Phil Steele's seeming belief in our chances to win out.

well, to be fair, Steele is notorious for overhyping us a little bit. Didn't he put us at 6 or something this year?

 

[Rhode Irish]

well, to be fair, Steele is notorious for overhyping us a little bit. Didn't he put us at 6 or something this year?

On one hand, we aren't ranked at this point in time, so I guess you could say a top-10 ranking was "overhyping" us. But, on the other hand, I don't think we can say for sure that Notre Dame isn't one of the best 10 teams in college football this year. There is no way Phil Steele or anyone else could have foreseen the way the first two games went, and if we had won them (as I think we all feel we should have), then maybe we would be in the top-10 right now. Hell, Michigan was on the cusp of a top-10 ranking before they lost this past weekend, and they aren't good at all.

Plus, I still think it isn't out of the question that ND finishes around #6 - if we run the table and beat Boise in the Fiesta Bowl, where do you think we would finish? I am not guaranteeing that, or even predicting it. But I do think it is possible.

If you had to name all the teams in the country you'd be scared to play, could you come up with five? I can't. I have three: LSU, Alabama and Oklahoma. That's it. So, to me, Phil Steele isn't a lunatic because he picked ND to finish the season highly ranked. I trust Steele's methods and analysis far more than any of the poll voters.

 

[Dizzyphil]

VT's BEST win in that list was over #90 Marshall. They had played no one UNDER 90. ND had played no one over 89. How you can compare a win over MSU, a ranked team, to a win over Marshall defies comprehension. Purdue would be undefeated with VT's schedule.

FSU's only wins were over the 139nd and 232nd ranked teams. There are only 120 Div 1 teams. ND's worse win is 40 slots higher than FSU's best. ND's 2nd worse win is also 200 slots higher than FSU's only other win.

The difference should be intuitively obvious to even the most casual observer. You're not confrused if you don't grasp that, diz. You're obtruse.

Okay buddy, calm down..... didn't mean to rustle your chicken feathers... boy this site is getting tougher by the day to be a part of...... wowsers

Diz

oh, and since you called me obtruse..... you're a dr!ckhead...LOL!!!

 

[phork]

I don't think we could handle BoiseSt. Especially in a bowl game. They are the masters of trick plays. especially in meaningless bowl games.

 

[BeauBenken]

I don't think we could handle BoiseSt. Especially in a bowl game. They are the masters of trick plays. especially in meaningless bowl games.

By all the **** that's thrown at us in a season we should be masters of defending trick plays.

 

[BurningRiver]

On one hand, we aren't ranked at this point in time, so I guess you could say a top-10 ranking was "overhyping" us. But, on the other hand, I don't think we can say for sure that Notre Dame isn't one of the best 10 teams in college football this year. There is no way Phil Steele or anyone else could have foreseen the way the first two games went, and if we had won them (as I think we all feel we should have), then maybe we would be in the top-10 right now. Hell, Michigan was on the cusp of a top-10 ranking before they lost this past weekend, and they aren't good at all.

Plus, I still think it isn't out of the question that ND finishes around #6 - if we run the table and beat Boise in the Fiesta Bowl, where do you think we would finish? I am not guaranteeing that, or even predicting it. But I do think it is possible.

If you had to name all the teams in the country you'd be scared to play, could you come up with five? I can't. I have three: LSU, Alabama and Oklahoma. That's it. So, to me, Phil Steele isn't a lunatic because he picked ND to finish the season highly ranked. I trust Steele's methods and analysis far more than any of the poll voters.

I can tell you right now I don't think we would be able to beat Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, and definitely Oregon. Oregon, IMO, is just way too fast for this defense. OklaSU slings it around like nobody's business, and our secondary isn't good enough to contain them, at least in my opinion. And Wisconsin is just so underrated.

Other than them, I think we could beat anybody in the country. Now there are teams who I really wouldn't want to play but at the level we are playing at the moment I think we could beat anybody in the country other than those six. Of course there are always the matchup issues like we had with Denard, even though scUM is an inferior team, we didn't match up with Denard, etc. etc.

But 6? I don't know. If we win out, including a BCS bowl win, I think we would deserve #6 for sure. But until then, that's overrating us.

 

[Rhode Irish]

I can tell you right now I don't think we would be able to beat Wisconsin, Oklahoma State, and definitely Oregon. Oregon, IMO, is just way too fast for this defense. OklaSU slings it around like nobody's business, and our secondary isn't good enough to contain them, at least in my opinion. And Wisconsin is just so underrated.

Other than them, I think we could beat anybody in the country. Now there are teams who I really wouldn't want to play but at the level we are playing at the moment I think we could beat anybody in the country other than those six. Of course there are always the matchup issues like we had with Denard, even though scUM is an inferior team, we didn't match up with Denard, etc. etc.

Eh. Oregon would present some unique challenges. That is for sure. Wisconsin is the best team of the ones you mentioned, but we might match up best with them. Okie State is a bit of a paper tiger, IMO. At this point they haven't done much that really impresses me. The best thing on their resume is a squeaked-out win over an overvalued A&M team. Maybe they could say the same about us, though.

I'm not saying that ND could beat every team other than Oklahoma, LSU and Bama 10 out of 10 times, but I wouldn't be scared of any other team. (When I say "scared" in this context, I mean worried that we would get absolutely dismantled like the Sugar Bowl against LSU.)

But 6? I don't know. If we win out, including a BCS bowl win, I think we would deserve #6 for sure. But until then, that's overrating us.

Well, my only point about that was that if he thinks we are going to the Fiesta Bowl, its possible that we do win and therefore that #6 would be justified. But it doesn't really matter, because he ranked us 6th in the preseason, which is like being a first place baseball team on March 30. At that point it isn't a matter of overrated or underrated; its just making a somewhat informed projection. Obviously its impossible to predict.

 

[Buster Bluth]

I don't think we could handle BoiseSt. Especially in a bowl game. They are the masters of trick plays. especially in meaningless bowl games.

Not that I don't think Notre Dame could probably hang around with Boise State, but I don't think Boise State would need trick plays to beat the Irish. I think that's probably a little bit insulting to how good that team, and program, is at this point in time. This isn't your 2007 Boise State team. They are legitimate.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Enough with the hand-waving! F/+ ranks us as 6th best team nationally; thus, according to their excellent model, we'd only be an underdog against 5 teams on a neutral field.

As others have said, we'd match up well against Wiscy. I feel like we could definitely hang with Oklahoma, too. I suspect that LSU and 'Bama would be too much to handle defensively, but neither of those teams is an offensive juggernaut either; it would probably be a defensive slugfest.

Ironically, according to the rankings, BSU is the team we match-up worst against, but this is what the return to glory entails; if you want to be the best, we have to play the best.

 

[phork]

Not that I don't think Notre Dame could probably hang around with Boise State, but I don't think Boise State would need trick plays to beat the Irish. I think that's probably a little bit insulting to how good that team, and program, is at this point in time. This isn't your 2007 Boise State team. They are legitimate.

I am not insulting them, they use these plays all the time, its part of their playbook that is in the "Use Regularly" section.

 

[IrishandColts]

I'd like Boise

 

[Kak7304]

Although BSU has legitimized themselves with numerous big victories over the past few years, if we were to beat them in a BCS game, I don't think we'd get credit for the win. Rather, I think many will spin it as BSU actually doesn't belong at the top and say we haven't proven anything. I'm not saying this is right or logical in any way, but I think it is what would happen.