vBook: Which ND QB will Start against USF in 2011?

Ironman8

Ironman8

Jaqen H'ghar
Messages
11,652
Reaction score
902
While I will be surprised if Rees is tabbed tomorrow, it will not upset or disappoint me in the slightest, and this is coming from a Crist fan. Such a decision would obviously mean that BK believes that Tommy would put us in the best position to win the maximum amount of games - what more can we ask for as fans?

It is noted that Tommy does not have the tools (and thus potential) as Crist as a starter, and it will probably hinder our ability to maximize our big play potential. In the past we have needed those big plays - quite a few of them. But if BK believes that we are blessed this year with a stout D and an improved running game, I can easily envision a scenario in which he places a higher emphasis on ball security and accuracy, rather than having an "explosive" offense.

I know this is a heated debate for people, in which both sides have legitimate and well-articulated arguments, but for the life of me I can not see how anyone can truly be upset or angry at whoever is the choice tomorrow. BK has more riding on this decision than anyone, and whomever he chooses obviously indicates who he believes will win us the most games in 2011, and all I want are wins.
 
Whiskeyjack

Whiskeyjack

Mittens Margaritas Ante Porcos
Staff member
Messages
20,894
Reaction score
8,126
Ironman8 said:
BK has more riding on this decision than anyone, and whomever he chooses obviously indicates who he believes will win us the most games in 2011, and all I want are wins.
Click to expand...

I think the expectations of the team and the fans weigh heavily in Dayne's favor. If Kelly goes with Dayne, and later switches to Rees when Dayne struggles, Kelly won't catch much flack for it because that's the expected outcome. The 5:s: senior is supposed to start before the 3:s: sophomore.

However, if Kelly starts Rees, and Rees has another game like USC... people will be calling for Kelly's job again, because he didn't stick to the script. In short, I think Rees would have had to dominate in camp to justify Kelly picking him over Crist, which didn't happen. If the competition is honestly "too close to call", that has to militate heavily in Dayne's favor.

Jokernurse04.jpg

"You know... You know what I've noticed? Nobody panics when things go "according to
plan." Even if the plan is horrifying! If, tomorrow, I tell the press that, like, a gang banger
will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will be blown up, nobody panics, because it's all
"part of the plan." But when I say that one little old mayor will die, well then everyone
loses their minds!"
 
Last edited:
Rhode Irish

Rhode Irish

Semi-retired
Messages
7,057
Reaction score
900
Ironman, I agree with just about everything you're saying here, but I still don't get the idea that Rees represents more of a ball-control option. He turned the ball over more frequently than Crist did. I agree that if BK goes with Tommy then there has to be a reason, and I'll root like hell for the kid. I just have never understood how there could be a question about who the starter should be.

I honestly assumed that all of this QB competition talk was partly gamesmanship by BK and partly to make sure Rees was ready in case Crist was injured again. I dismissed the idea that the two of them were even during fall camp as subterfuge. I will still be surprised if it isn't Crist tomorrow, but I won't be upset. BK has forgotten more about football since he finished lunch this afternoon than I know.
 
GoldenDomer87

GoldenDomer87

New member
Messages
165
Reaction score
9
Ironman8 said:
While I will be surprised if Rees is tabbed tomorrow, it will not upset or disappoint me in the slightest, and this is coming from a Crist fan. Such a decision would obviously mean that BK believes that Tommy would put us in the best position to win the maximum amount of games - what more can we ask for as fans?

It is noted that Tommy does not have the tools (and thus potential) as Crist as a starter, and it will probably hinder our ability to maximize our big play potential. In the past we have needed those big plays - quite a few of them. But if BK believes that we are blessed this year with a stout D and an improved running game, I can easily envision a scenario in which he places a higher emphasis on ball security and accuracy, rather than having an "explosive" offense.

I know this is a heated debate for people, in which both sides have legitimate and well-articulated arguments, but for the life of me I can not see how anyone can truly be upset or angry at whoever is the choice tomorrow. BK has more riding on this decision than anyone, and whomever he chooses obviously indicates who he believes will win us the most games in 2011, and all I want are wins.
Click to expand...

Very true. At the end of the day, Kelly knows what he is doing with his quarterbacks. I will back either QB. Although, I'm still curious if it is as close as he keeps saying.
 
Ironman8

Ironman8

Jaqen H'ghar
Messages
11,652
Reaction score
902
Rhode Irish said:
Ironman, I agree with just about everything you're saying here, but I still don't get the idea that Rees represents more of a ball-control option. He turned the ball over more frequently than Crist did. I agree that if BK goes with Tommy then there has to be a reason, and I'll root like hell for the kid. I just have never understood how there could be a question about who the starter should be.

I honestly assumed that all of this QB competition talk was partly gamesmanship by BK and partly to make sure Rees was ready in case Crist was injured again. I dismissed the idea that the two of them were even during fall camp as subterfuge. I will still be surprised if it isn't Crist tomorrow, but I won't be upset. BK has forgotten more about football since he finished lunch this afternoon than I know.
Click to expand...

I agree with you 100% on this. I was just noting the perception of Rees as a more accurate and ball control option. Now, one could argue that as a true freshman call control was understandable an issue, and should improve with another year under his belt. Same can be said for Crist as well, though.

I have been talking with someone very close to me who rooms with a walk-on on the team, and he gave enlightening insight when giving a description of the competition. He stated that Rees is the much bigger risk taker in practice, not Crist, and that Crist has been much steadier and unspectacular. Rees will make a couple big plays, but then make bigger mistakes. Crist is a little more hesitant to take major risks. This may suprise some people, but I honestly think it speaks to both players as individuals: Rees is very confident despite some perceived physical shortcomings, while Crist is arguably the inverse.

I believe it will be Crist tomorrow, but if it is not, again I will neither be shocked nor disappointed. All I want is to win on Saturdays.
 
mgriff

mgriff

Useful idiot
Messages
3,525
Reaction score
307
Whiskeyjack said:
I think the expectations of the team and the fans weigh heavily in Dayne's favor. If Kelly goes with Dayne, and later switches to Rees when Dayne struggles, Kelly won't catch much flack for it because that's the expected outcome. The 5:s: senior is supposed to start before the 3:s: sophomore.

However, if Kelly starts Rees, and Rees has another game like USC... people will be calling for Kelly's job again, because he didn't stick to the script. In short, I think Rees would have had to dominate in camp to justify Kelly picking him over Crist, which didn't happen. If the competition is honestly "too close to call", that has to militate heavily in Dayne's favor.
Click to expand...

I'm not disagreeing with anything you've said, but Dayne was awarded his 5th :s: after he verballed to ND. Now I'm not saying that he didn't deserve it, but the fact that he was going to learn under Weis, the QB guru, who just did a complete makeover on Quinn and landed Clausen may have gone into his rankings. What I'm trying to get at, is that maybe there is less between them than some, not you, have made out. I would personally start Crist, but he doesn't have the touch Tommy has, while Tommy's arm is weaker. I think it really is close, and if it is neck and neck like BK said, then I think the seniority favors Crist as the deciding factor, as you pointed out.

My major concern was Dayne's lack of touch on some passes last year. It just seemed like it was all arm and none of the finesse, whereas Tommy has a wonderful touch, but not as strong of an arm. Some have said Tommy has a bad arm, but he can make the throws--maybe not with the velocity of Crist, but he can make them all. I remember in one of the Gameday threads last year, people were complaining about Tommy's arm, and he proceeded to throw an out from the opposite hash for a nice completion. As I'm arguing these points, it can easily be seen that the race really is close, as they are both quality. My preference would be Dayne, even though as I've typed, it may seem like I've argued for Tommy more, but I just can't bring myself to put Rees ahead.
 
Last edited:
Whiskeyjack

Whiskeyjack

Mittens Margaritas Ante Porcos
Staff member
Messages
20,894
Reaction score
8,126
mgriff said:
I'm not disagreeing with anything you've said, but Dayne was awarded his 5th :s: after he verballed to ND. Now I'm not saying that he didn't deserve it, but the fact that he was going to learn under Weis, the QB guru, who just did a complete makeover on Quinn and landed Clausen may have gone into his rankings. What I'm trying to get at, is that maybe there is less between them than some, not you, have made out. I would personally start Crist, but he doesn't have the touch Tommy has, while Tommy's arm is weaker. I think it really is close, and if it is neck and neck like BK said, then I think the seniority favors Crist as the deciding factor, as you pointed out.
Click to expand...

I wasn't making a substantive case in favor of Dayne (as you graciously noted a couple times). This is a situation where perception is reality: Dayne, who came in as a highly touted recruit, is now a big athletic senior who most people expect to win the job over Tommy Rees, the smaller less athletic sophomore. So regardless of actual merit, the "safe" option for Kelly is to give Crist the first shot, since it's less risky from a PR standpoint.

If he could do it again, do you think Kelly would call that pass at the end of the Tulsa game? While I feel the call was reasonable, I bet he wouldn't. He'd run it up the middle with Hughes and put it on Ruffer's foot, because he catches much less flack that way if something goes wrong.

My major concern was Dayne's lack of touch on some passes last year. It just seemed like it was all arm and none of the finesse, whereas Tommy has a wonderful touch, but not as strong of an arm. Some have said Tommy has a bad arm, but he can make the throws--maybe not with the velocity of Crist, but he can make them all. I remember in one of the Gameday threads last year, people were complaining about Tommy's arm, and he proceeded to throw an out from the opposite hash for a nice completion. As I'm arguing these points, it can easily be seen that the race really is close, as they are both quality. My preference would be Dayne, even though as I've typed, it may seem like I've argued for Tommy more, but I just can't bring myself to put Rees ahead.
Click to expand...

Since today is the eve of the QB announcement, this debate is especially pointless, but I'm bored, so...

Any reference to how Crist and Rees "looked" last season tends to be little more than hand-waving. The objective statistical data proves that Crist was a significantly better QB: ND averaged +3.6 APPG with Crist, and Crist's Interceptions per Attempt (0.02) was less than half than Rees' (0.05). So going off the only hard evidence available to us, Crist wins hands down.

Sadly, that doesn't mean much anymore. None of us got to watch Crist and Rees in Spring or Fall camp, so our data is out-dated. All we have to go on is the public statements of Kelly's staff-- which can't be taken at face value-- and the very limited observations of the media-- which grew more inconclusive as time passed.

At this point, the only reasonable thing to do is admit that we're incapable of coming to an informed opinion on the subject, and to wait patiently for tomorrow's presser. :)
 
Last edited:
mgriff

mgriff

Useful idiot
Messages
3,525
Reaction score
307
Whiskeyjack said:
At this point, the only reasonable thing to do is admit that we're incapable of coming an informed opinion on the subject, and to wait patiently for tomorrow's presser. :)
Click to expand...

Yes, that's pretty accurate, but what the hell else am I supposed to do?
 
IrishJayhawk

IrishJayhawk

Rock Chalk
Messages
7,181
Reaction score
464
Whiskeyjack said:
At this point, the only reasonable thing to do is admit that we're incapable of coming to an informed opinion on the subject, and to wait patiently for tomorrow's presser. :)
Click to expand...

^This.

Without being in practice, I just don't have any idea what to think.
 
mgriff

mgriff

Useful idiot
Messages
3,525
Reaction score
307
Why is the betting closed already? I completely understand closing it after the announcement, but I'm a procrastinator--let me bet McGibbles!

Also, the odds have changed for Crist, but does vbook allow those who bet earlier to lock in the odds they bet on? You're the vgenerate, so I'm coming to you for answers.
 
Last edited:
Whiskeyjack

Whiskeyjack

Mittens Margaritas Ante Porcos
Staff member
Messages
20,894
Reaction score
8,126
mgriff said:
Why is the betting closed already? I completely understand closing it after the announcement, but I'm a procrastinator--let me bet McGibbles!

Also, the odds have changed for Crist, but does vbook allow those who bet earlier to lock in the odds they bet on? You're the vgenerate, so I'm coming to you for answers.
Click to expand...

Those of us who stupidly bet on Crist early are only getting 1:1 odds. Everyone who waited will get 3:1 odds. BOOOO!
 
BeauBenken

BeauBenken

Shut up, Richard
Staff member
Messages
16,041
Reaction score
5,491
Whiskeyjack said:
Those of us who stupidly bet on Crist early are only getting 1:1 odds. Everyone who waited will get 3:1 odds. BOOOO!
Click to expand...

WHAT?! If anything we should be rewarded for putting the bets in earlier!

Oh Giiiibbbbyyyy....
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top