The Optimal Notre Dame Scheduling Model

[T-Boone]

Try to pull some strings to get Clemson (and hope they are decent) onto next seasons schedule in place of BC, Stanford or Syracuse.
It is not just that the schedule is easy next season it is also hard to get even vaguely interested in.

 

[NorthDakota]

Try to pull some strings to get Clemson (and hope they are decent) onto next seasons schedule in place of BC, Stanford or Syracuse.
It is not just that the schedule is easy next season it is also hard to get even vaguely interested in.

Keep Cuse if possible. Boston College and Stanford are just not it anymore. Cuse isnt special either but they actually have been ok recently.

Hopefully one or two out if Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Purdue have a pulse. Maybe North Carolina? The schedule, based on this year, is going to be ass though.

 

[Hautian Domer]

Other than Michigan, can we have any worse of a week? Dropped out of the CFB Playoff, forgo a bowl game and are just being blitzkrieg-ed from everyone for doing so, lose Bullough, Freeman rumors tied to NFL, and now this.

 

[greyhammer90]

Considering that B1G and SEC wouldve had to sign this MOU, and we (for now) have a deal with the ACC, does this just mean the Big 12 is threatening us?

 

[stlnd01]

Considering that B1G and SEC wouldve had to sign this MOU, and we (for now) have a deal with the ACC, does this just mean the Big 12 is threatening us?

When was the last time we even played a team in the Big 12?

 

[NDRock]

Other than Michigan, can we have any worse of a week? Dropped out of the CFB Playoff, forgo a bowl game and are just being blitzkrieg-ed from everyone for doing so, lose Bullough, Freeman rumors tied to NFL, and now this.

After reading Wolken’s last article on us, it’s clear he has an agenda. There could be 2 ADs who said that and the headline would be technically correct. I don’t trust anything that guy says regarding ND.

 

[Huntr]

When was the last time we even played a team in the Big 12?

In regularly scheduled games, it's been a while. In bowl games, Ok St and Iowa St recently.

BYU, UC, ASU, and Utah weren't B12 members at the time of the last games ND played them.


Edit: Texas series in 2015 and 2016. They were B12.

 

[Hautian Domer]

Considering that B1G and SEC wouldve had to sign this MOU, and we (for now) have a deal with the ACC, does this just mean the Big 12 is threatening us?

That's a good point.

When was the last time we even played a team in the Big 12?

Fair, but the Pac 12 is no more. The relationship with the ACC has soured to say the least. We can't be in the position to alienate ourselves from another conference (Big 12). That puts all the chips in favor of the B1G and SEC. We'd be entirely at their mercy.

 

[NorthDakota]

Other than Michigan, can we have any worse of a week? Dropped out of the CFB Playoff, forgo a bowl game and are just being blitzkrieg-ed from everyone for doing so, lose Bullough, Freeman rumors tied to NFL, and now this.

Give it some thought before panicking lol.

Who is mad at Notre Dame? ESPN and certain media types. Normal people don't care about the bowl game thing because normal people dont give a shit about bowls anymore. How do I know? My friends love making fun of me with all things Notre Dame...none have said a word. They did give me grief about ND missing the playoffs, so its not like they arent paying attention.

The CFP think doesnt matter because the only way to get that Memorandum of Understanding is if the AD's all knew about it. They'll drop quotes now that they are "concerned" or "looking into options" etc to appease their fans...and most/all of them will then hide behind the "conference leadership" or blame other conferences for this agreement they are all (mostly) fine with.

If they had a real problem with it, they would have brought it to the forefront much much much earlier.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Give it some thought before panicking lol.

Who is mad at Notre Dame? ESPN and certain media types. Normal people don't care about the bowl game thing because normal people dont give a shit about bowls anymore. How do I know? My friends love making fun of me with all things Notre Dame...none have said a word. They did give me grief about ND missing the playoffs, so its not like they arent paying attention.

The CFP think doesnt matter because the only way to get that Memorandum of Understanding is if the AD's all knew about it. They'll drop quotes now that they are "concerned" or "looking into options" etc to appease their fans...and most/all of them will then hide behind the "conference leadership" or blame other conferences for this agreement they are all (mostly) fine with.

If they had a real problem with it, they would have brought it to the forefront much much much earlier.

Disagree.

People don't care about bowl games. But they do care about Notre Dame. They either love ND or they hate ND. There is no in between.

It's literally low hanging fruit to pick on ND with an article or a video and they will get a ton of engagement. It's like printing money.

Maybe the skipping the bowl game thing isn't gaining any traction, but based upon the past ND hit jobs that did gain traction, it's obvious why ESPN chose that route.

 

[OrlaNDomer]

I know it's been discussed before about adding Hawaii as a 13th data point on ND's schedule, but maybe a wrinkle not discussed before would be moving it forward a week (Thanksgiving week) instead of USC/Stanford.

How it would work:
1) Move a game to week 0 each year to clear space
2) Move the USC/Stanford away game up a week
3) Fly out to Hawaii on Sunday following USC/Stanford game
4) Play Hawaii on Thanksgiving Day (or possibly Black Friday)
5) Fly back to South Bend

Benefits:
- Extra data point (adds 1 to win column - which clearly matters to CFP)
- Recruiting in Hawaii (play at home during the holidays every year)

Drawbacks:
- Extra data point (wear and tear on players)
- Additional travel & time away from campus/classes for players

If USC is demanding we play them earlier in the season make this a stipulation to move our games in LA to the Saturday before thanksgiving. Stanford should be willing to do whatever we say at this point or we just drop them from the schedule and replace with Cal, UNLV, San Diego St, Arizona, Arizona State, or a number of other west coast teams looking for a big time home-home added to their schedule. Hawaii surely would be happy to take this type of payday for them each year.

 

[Dale]

I don’t think we need an extra data point. Our “buy” game was the Mountain West Champion. Other schools it’s an FCS team. They don’t care.

 

[OrlaNDomer]

I don’t think we need an extra data point. Our “buy” game was the Mountain West Champion. Other schools it’s an FCS team. They don’t care.

I think that's the point though... "buy" games are buy games, but 2 "buy" games > 1 "buy" game. The committee and ESPN count a W the same whether it's Hawaii or Stanford or Alabama. I'm confident that 11-2 ND is in over 10-2 Miami this year. At the very minimum it takes away one more talking point against us.

 

[Dale]

I think that's the point though... "buy" games are buy games, but 2 "buy" games > 1 "buy" game. The committee and ESPN count a W the same whether it's Hawaii or Stanford or Alabama. I'm confident that 11-2 ND is in over 10-2 Miami this year. At the very minimum it takes away one more talking point against us.

A 13th data point wasn’t used against us though.

 

[NDPhilly]

So cowardly.

 

[NorthDakota]

Only way 13th data point could possibly matter is if it was against a good team.

I see zero benefit in playing UNLV, Hawaii, or Cal-(city) State as some extra data point.

 

[NorthDakota]

So cowardly.

Cancelling a game against an in-state P4 rival 90 minutes away is absolutely bitch made

 

[IrishinSyria]

I just looked at NDs full schedule for 2026. It is pretty/very bad.
The only teams with a pulse are Miami hopefully and USC hopefully. They ought to try to get out of one of those ACC games (such as Boston) and schedule someone tough - things should be flexible eg Indiana should try to cash in on their good current situation.
(Boston, Syracuse, Stanford, Rice at the bottom and just USC and Miami at the top is going to just fuel the critics).

Worth pointing out: if Indiana had been on our schedule as early as the start of last year people would have thought it was a gimmie. Wisconsin, Michigan State, and most of the ACC teams are real D1 programs capable of if not becoming Indiana at least turning things around quickly.

And if they don’t, who cares. Smash the nerds and make the playoffs.

 

[NorthDakota]

Worth pointing out: if Indiana had been on our schedule as early as the start of last year people would have thought it was a gimmie. Wisconsin, Michigan State, and most of the ACC teams are real D1 programs capable of if not becoming Indiana at least turning things around quickly.

And if they don’t, who cares. Smash the nerds and make the playoffs.

This has been my thought as well. So much can change from year to year in CFB, and with transfer portals/NIL now, that change can be radical (see Indiana, University of). I don't think Wisconsin or Michigan State will be good but they very well could be and Wisconsin in particular could be a tricky game week 1 at Lambeau. The worst time to play bad teams is early in the year before they know they are bad.

 

[OrlaNDomer]

The 13th data point does matter though. I completely agree that it shouldn't, but being 11-2 vs 10-2 is a major data point. If nothing else, it forces haters (including those on the committee) to dive deeper into the weeds to come up with excuses beyond win-loss record. If someone wants to compare Hawaii and whatever other bag game is on ND's schedule that's great, then we get to compare that to whatever FCS opponents our competitors are playing. Likelihood of ND adding a 13th game is next to no chance but I think it's an interesting conversation...especially now that we're in the offseason.

 

[IrishinSyria]

The 13th data point does matter though. I completely agree that it shouldn't, but being 11-2 vs 10-2 is a major data point. If nothing else, it forces haters (including those on the committee) to dive deeper into the weeds to come up with excuses beyond win-loss record. If someone wants to compare Hawaii and whatever other bag game is on ND's schedule that's great, then we get to compare that to whatever FCS opponents our competitors are playing. Likelihood of ND adding a 13th game is next to no chance but I think it's an interesting conversation...especially now that we're in the offseason.

Do you think it would have mattered if we’d been 11-2 vs 10-2 this year? I’m skeptical, and have a hard time believing it would ever be anything but an additional opportunity to pick up a loss and/or injury.

 

[OrlaNDomer]

Do you think it would have mattered if we’d been 11-2 vs 10-2 this year? I’m skeptical, and have a hard time believing it would ever be anything but an additional opportunity to pick up a loss and/or injury.

I think on its face it’s much harder to move Alabama up or hold them above us at 10-3 when we’re 11-2. Maybe not but I think the potential risk of injuries is worth the potential reward of the extra win.

 

[Bane]

Only way 13th data point could possibly matter is if it was against a good team.

I see zero benefit in playing UNLV, Hawaii, or Cal-(city) State as some extra data point.

Yeah and besides, people are attempting to apply logic or reasoning to a process in which neither are present. We were not excluded on the basis of any actual metrics or logic, it was all backroom political dealing.

People need to get it out of their head that the process failed this year. It only failed if you actually believe the point is to select the "12 best/most deserving teams." The system worked because the system is designed to enrich ESPN and their conference investments first, and the other power conferences secondly. "Best," "deserving," so on, those don't factor into the equation.

 

[Wild Bill]

The CFP’s first order of business isn’t evaluating resumes - it’s making sure ESPN and SEC is accommodated. Everything else is secondary and flexible. Criteria, logic, and best team arguments are applied only after the desired outcome is reached.

I'm not a claiming that the process is rigged against ND. Swap bama out for a mediocre program from a weak conference that actually had a better resume, and ND is in without question, imo. There’s zero chance that team jumps ND after barely beating Auburn, or stays ahead after a Georgia-type loss. Bama did b/c it's bama and they're from SEC.

ND was on a 10 game heater with a Heisman candidate who was the most electric player in the country, and tehy were tossed aside. A 13th game against Hawaii isn't changing anything at all.

I know the media has made this entire process sound far more complex than it is - does the committee value game control, SOS, H2H, the extra data point game etc etc????? What do they want??? Now we know the recipe is simple from ND's perspective - lose one game or less, or pray you’re not being compared to an ESPN darling when you’re on the bubble. That’s all.

 

[stlnd01]

I cannot imagine how an end-of-season game against Hawaii moves the needle for us in playoff conversations at all.

If we're on the bubble like this year, we should hold CCG weekend in reserve for a Challenge Play-In Game against a fellow bubble team. Even if it's "against the rules," we should loudly and proudly proclaim our willingness to play anyone to prove our worth. Throw down that gauntlet. Make them say no.

 

[Huntr]

I cannot imagine how an end-of-season game against Hawaii moves the needle for us in playoff conversations at all.

It doesn't. ND plays the same number of P4 games as CCG participants. Playing UH does nothing for ND.

ND's problem is that the ACC sucks ass both in perception and reality. Joining the ACC wouldn't mean shit to the people who say ND's schedule sucks.

Miami fans were saying it and ND PLAYS THEIR FUCKIN CONFERENCE MATES FOR HALF THE YEAR.


It's all dumb...

 

[T-Boone]

I cannot imagine how an end-of-season game against Hawaii moves the needle for us in playoff conversations at all.

If we're on the bubble like this year, we should hold CCG weekend in reserve for a Challenge Play-In Game against a fellow bubble team. Even if it's "against the rules," we should loudly and proudly proclaim our willingness to play anyone to prove our worth. Throw down that gauntlet. Make them say no.

Vandy did that this year because they knew they were on the outside and needed more but ND this year had been misled to think they were almost certainly in.

 

[GATTACA!]

I think on its face it’s much harder to move Alabama up or hold them above us at 10-3 when we’re 11-2. Maybe not but I think the potential risk of injuries is worth the potential reward of the extra win.

Not when that extra win is Hawaii. I think being idle that weekend is more important than a 13th data point anyways. The only way you can avoid that is to schedule UCONN for championship weekend every year. Beating UCONN obviously doens't move the needle but if we made an annual spectacle out of the game (play it at a neutral site, night game, have a big name halftime performance every year, etc) that at least keeps you front of mind for the dolts on the committee.

 

[Dale]

 

[ulukinatme]

It's more like P2, M2(Mid), and G6.