2025 College Football Playoffs

[Bane]

I wonder a bit if real football people continue to know that Miami needed a desperation heave, the 2025 catch-of-the-year, and an Adon Shuler first game brain coma to win that game on one spectacular but funky play? Even were I not an ND fan, I'd remember things like that.

The Miami Crybaby Industrial Complex has mythologized that game into a “blowout with a misleading final score.”

 

[greyhammer90]

How funny would it be if Navy got the 12 spot and made the No.5 team spend their entire extra rest weeks preparing for the triple option.

 

[Huntr]

 

[MacIrish75]

That Tulane/TT matchup about to have a viewership share of about 250k people.

 

[Bane]

I'm really enjoying Fallica comparing the Sagarin rank of the teams Miami and ND played, but then getting cooked in his replies by folks asking why he doesn't just use the Sagarin rankings themselves.

This fat moron doesn’t know ball, period. This guy was supposed to be a betting guru or whatever to make it worse. Losses have always meant more than wins in CFB, it’s been that way for a long, long time.

 

[stlnd01]

Just to play devil's advocate, something like this is the worst-case scenario.

1: Ohio State (B1G champ)
2: Indiana (B1G runner up)
3: Georgia (SEC #3 but best resume)
4: A&M (SEC runner-up)
5: Ole Miss (SEC #4)
6: Oregon: (B1G #3)
7: Bama (SEC champ)
8: Oklahoma (SEC #5)
9: BYU (Big 12 champ)
10: Texas Tech or Miami (at-large)
11: Ga. Tech (ACC Champ)
12: G5 whoever
First out: Miami or Texas Tech
Second out: Notre Dame

It would require:
1: Ole Miss, Oregon and Oklahoma winning all remaining games.
2: Bama winning out and then beating A&M in the SEC title game
3: BYU winning out and then beating Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, by a close enough margin that Tech is stlll at-large over us
4: Miami winning out, in style, but not making the ACC title game.

If two of those things don't happen, we're in. This is college football. Like five of them won't happen. We'll probably host in the first round.

 

[GATTACA!]

I’d rather be 10-12 than 8/9. Get me away from OSU please.

 

[Old Man Mike]

Another minuscule thing: Miami hasn't played a lot of "good" eye-test ball lately, except maybe thrashing NC State so badly. How did they do that? I know NC State is now-you-see-me-now-you-don't (5-5) but what actually happened? It appears that they were incompetent in extremum in running the ball. Did the fact that their three interior linemen were out have much to do with it? Also, I think that "Hollywood" guy was out.

 

[ColoradoIrish]

I’d rather be 10-12 than 8/9. Get me away from OSU please.

Pussy

 

[Bane]

I mean, you just cant get too upset about this dipshit. Somehow got a job at ESPN as a shitty gambling "guru", but really doesn't know much about football. It is what it is. Let stupid people dictate your feelings and youre gonna have a bad time. Id just be more worried about meeting him in person. One eye is trained on you and God knows what the other one is trained on.

At some point these Miami homers have to let it go. They have not stopped pissing their pants about this for the last 3 weeks. Okay, sure the first week you’re upset, I get it. By now it’s not a surprise, you’re behind ND. Get over it. My Twitter feed is filled with enough salt from Miami fans to fill the Pacific.

 

[Dale]

The fact that people don’t realize Alabama’s ranking means nothing is hilarious. It means NOTHING

 

[Bane]

The autobids need to die. Having a 21.5 point spread in a playoff game is completely stupid. A wasted spot.

 

[GATTACA!]

Pussy

More like PTSD. Also I just want to watch this team play more games.

 

[IrishBoognish]

Pussy

Nah man... im with him

Nobody wants to play OSU, especially us.

Its a shitty reality, but kinda true

 

[ColoradoIrish]

More like PTSD. Also I just want to watch this team play more games.

I get it, but if there's anytime to play OSU it's in the second round. Sure they have a bye but they're spending that week prepping for two opponents. Not saying a repeat of last year happens with every team in a bye losing but I think there's something to that as well

 

[spoonidentity]

Just to play devil's advocate, something like this is the worst-case scenario.

1: Ohio State (B1G champ)
2: Indiana (B1G runner up)
3: Georgia (SEC #3 but best resume)
4: A&M (SEC runner-up)
5: Ole Miss (SEC #4)
6: Oregon: (B1G #3)
7: Bama (SEC champ)
8: Oklahoma (SEC #5)
9: BYU (Big 12 champ)
10: Texas Tech or Miami (at-large)
11: Ga. Tech (ACC Champ)
12: G5 whoever
First out: Miami or Texas Tech
Second out: Notre Dame

It would require:
1: Ole Miss, Oregon and Oklahoma winning all remaining games.
2: Bama winning out and then beating A&M in the SEC title game
3: BYU winning out and then beating Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, by a close enough margin that Tech is stlll at-large over us
4: Miami winning out, in style, but not making the ACC title game.

If two of those things don't happen, we're in. This is college football. Like five of them won't happen. We'll probably host in the first round.

You use very sound, rational, well thought out logic...But the pea brain part of me still thinks that this could still happen. I know things never work out perfectly in CFB but I've had disappointment before.

Oklahoma doesn't have the toughest test with a depleted LSU and Mizzou. Mississippi State is the worst SEC team over the last 5 years and Ole Miss can easily roll them. I always love seeing Oregon lose but Lincoln Riley does Lincoln Riley things and UW is hit or miss. Oregon could easily win both games going away.

A&M could (should) have lost to ND and could (should) have lost to SCar. Bama still controls it's destiny and can take down A&M. The Big12 is a mess so who knows, though BYU was thoroughly outclassed by TT the first time through. I'd really like to see some dominos fall this weekend to make the last week a bit easier to breathe and then the conference championship games inconsequential to ND.

On another note: In the big picture, do we want Pitt to beat Georgia Tech? Does that hurt ND in any way by letting Miami slip into ACC game or no? Of course we want Pitt to beat Miami, mostly for the lulz at this point.

 

[Bane]

This is insane.

 

[NDPhilly]

Entire board needs to keep telling themselves we are -2500 to make the playoffs on DraftKings, tied with Texas Tech. That’s over 96% implied likelihood today. We’re as close as a lock as you could be assuming we win out.

We are significantly more likely to get a home game than be left out.

 

[Bane]

 

[GATTACA!]

Entire board needs to keep telling themselves we are -2500 to make the playoffs on DraftKings, tied with Texas Tech. That’s over 96% implied likelihood today. We’re as close as a lock as you could be assuming we win out.

We are significantly more likely to get a home game than be left out.

Beds stay dry tonight boys.

 

[Old Man Mike]

I need to let my fixation on this go. West Virginia had a great WR many years ago who was having such a good season that people were asking him to comment on all kinds of honors. He answered with the right philosophy (albeit the wrong grammar --- and he was actually quite an intelligent young man having a grammatical brain fart). He said: "If it come; it do."

As I and the rest of the State of West Virginia cringed, I realized that this was good "Mountain William" (Hill Billy) wisdom, without the grammar.

 

[arndtjc]

9 would be a shitty spot. Play a road game against a strong team just to play #1 the next week.

Anyone anywhere anytime. If we are who we think we are we take on whoever lines up across from us. We’re going to have to slay that Ohio State beast some day, why not catch them in the quarters after winning a first round game? (All four teams on byes lost last year btw)

 

[bcole2]

Just to have some fun with our possible nightmare scenario, the odds of Oklahoma, Miami, Oregon, and BYU all winning this week is +227 (about 30% implied probability). And that's only stage 1 of everything that would need to happen. Where's that guy that always bets against us?

 

[GATTACA!]

Anyone anywhere anytime. If we are who we think we are we take on whoever lines up across from us. We’re going to have to slay that Ohio State beast some day, why not catch them in the quarters after winning a first round game? (All four teams on byes lost last year btw)

Because back to back National Championship appearances would be a massive step forward.

 

[NDMatt91]

Just to have some fun with our possible nightmare scenario, the odds of Oklahoma, Miami, Oregon, and BYU all winning this week is +227 (about 30% implied probability). And that's only stage 1 of everything that would need to happen. Where's that guy that always bets against us?

Don't we want BYU to win out in the regular season?

 

[Irish5Saint]

Don't we want BYU to win out in the regular season?

Yes, to lock Miami out.

 

[arndtjc]

Because back to back National Championship appearances would be a massive step forward.

Are you saying that if ND runs into OSU in the quarters that they can’t make it back?

Again at some point we’re going to have to get over this OSU hump, guys. Why don’t we catch them sleeping when they’ve had a month off?

Shying away from them sounds a lot like SC fans wanting out of the ND series. Put the ball down and let’s fucking go. If we get beat we get beat but this isn’t 2012. We belong.

 

[bcole2]

Don't we want BYU to win out in the regular season?

I was just going with what stlnd1 said. If BYU wins out and then beats TT, they both might be in. If BYU loses but still makes the conference title game, TT might be kicked out because they would lose to a lower ranked opponent.

 

[Dale]

The either A) performative or B) dumb media reaction every week really is something.

Heather Dinich and others are shocked by Notre Dame over Alabama. The AP did it two days ago. You’re really that surprised? That is not even mentioning the underlying reason I mentioned days ago to do it.

Then there is the absolutely shock of valuing quality losses. That has really stumped folks. Oh you mean the TV show is basically encouraging you to schedule and possibly lose higher tv rated games in future years? That the network aligned with the SEC wants to value quality losses, the conference most likely to repeatedly have multi loss teams?

And all of the above roughly aligns with most power ratings, even the old BCS system?

This all seems so transparently obvious I don’t know which media members are just performing for clicks or plain stupid.

 

[Fbolt]

Everyone who screams, "It's not fair!" fails to see the auto bids. Like how the F is Tulane getting in? Or the weak ACC champion? You want fair-take the top 12, regardless of what conference their in.