2025 College Football Playoffs

[FWIrish4]

Fallica's gonna need a copium infusion to get over this one.

Just wait. If USC beats Oregon and they jump Miami next week it’ll be an absolute meltdown (and somehow still ND’s fault)

 

[NDPhilly]

Wild that if you flipped 8 and 9, ND would be a 10pt home favorite against OU.

 

[IrelandIrish]

Why did Miami leapfrog Vandy while they were on bye?

Vandy lost to alabama and texas and they both lost this week. makes some sense

 

[NDPhilly]

Also keep in mind ND positions in advanced metrics:
FPI 5th
SP+ 6th
FEI 5th
Sagarin 4th

Also 3rd in Dokter Entropy and Slate Fluker, both of which are "more predictive" than FPI and SP+ that they push.

 

[2013Irish]

Agreed, but that's what internet message boards are for!

Looking at the rankings from this week last year is pretty wild. Things went very sideways over the last two weeks.

 

[Bane]

Ignore the head to head part. Miami’s best win is #9 and ND’s best win is #15. The chasm between those as data points is way smaller than Miami fans act like. They act like USC is #25. Lincoln Riley just do something one time and the gap is minimal .

Yes they always say "ND's best win is USC" as if that were somehow on the same tier as ASU or something.

 

[NotKoon]

I’m getting bad vibes, Miami has been climbing up slowly but surely while not really doing anything to deserve it. There’s a full court press by the ACC to fuck ND and my gut tells me the Big 12 will happily go along with them if they don’t have an actual candidate for a second bid. If they both get one, the chasm between them and the P2 looks even larger. I think they both see this situation as a challenge to their current position in the sport

 

[Dale]

If Carson Beck just doesn’t throw 6 INTs in two games this is a non-issue for Miami. The losses were as ugly in opponent as much as eyeballs. Likely even more.

 

[jprue24]

Also 3rd in Dokter Entropy and Slate Fluker, both of which are "more predictive" than FPI and SP+ that they push.

I don't think predictive rankings should have any part of this process.

 

[FWIrish4]

If Carson Beck just doesn’t throw 6 INTs in two games this is a non-issue for Miami.

Can he try it again the next two weeks please?

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

I’m getting bad vibes, Miami has been climbing up slowly but surely while not really doing anything to deserve it. There’s a full court press by the ACC to fuck ND and my gut tells me the Big 12 will happily go along with them if they don’t have an actual candidate for a second bid. If they both get one, the chasm between them and the P2 looks even larger. I think they both see this situation as a challenge to their current position in the sport

But wouldn't that be at Bamas expense?

 

[Bane]

It's just so weird because they are being intentionally obtuse... of course who you lose to and how you lose matters. It has ALWAYS mattered in CFB.

The logic that getting blasted by a bad team is the same as losing by 1 to a really good team makes ZERO SENSE and would obviously incentivize teams to play the easiest schedule possible. You *must* give teams a pass for close losses to elite teams or elite teams will actively avoid each other even more than they already do. So then by the same token, you *must* punish teams who lose games against soft competition.

I swear some days it's like people just started watching CFB this year or last year. They treat rankings like standings. It's very tedious from guys like Bear who obviously now better. The entire CFB world watched an undefeated P5 champion be left out of the playoffs two years ago and people act like everything is just a black and white straight W/L standings system.

 

[NotKoon]

But wouldn't that be at Bamas expense?

Bama right now is an Auburn win from the SEC championship game, they win that they solidify their spot and ND is the last team in. They lose that this conversation is moot, Miami might jump ND at that point just to throw them a bone if they’re both in

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

I don't think predictive rankings should have any part of this process.

So all wins and losses are the same, in other words? These metrics provide clarity to a very murky landscape of college football in which 12 game seasons need to be analyzed.

 

[jprue24]

Would be in: Notre Dame. At No. 9 and ahead of two-loss Alabama, Notre Dame is winning the eye test, because it is ranked behind Alabama in both Strength of Record and Strength of Schedule. Alabama has the No. 4 schedule in the country, while the Irish are No. 29. Notre Dame's best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt, with only No. 15 USC ranked this week. As long as the Irish end the season with wins against Syracuse and Stanford, their place in the playoff should be secure. - Dinich

 

[IrelandIrish]

who is the new commissioner they are talking about? what conference is he with

 

[Bane]

So all wins and losses are the same, in other words? These metrics provide clarity to a very murky landscape of college football in which 12 game seasons need to be analyzed.

Exactly right. CFB is not the NFL where you have a small pool of teams that have relatively even talent dispersion with small variances in SoS. We have to have advanced analytics, predictive metrics, etc. to bring clarity to a random jumble of 120ish teams spread across the country with massive discrepancies in talent, schedules, etc.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Fun thought experiment...
Is eye test just a catch phrase for advanced metrics? I say yes.

 

[NDPhilly]

I used to agree that you can “only look at resume” when BK’s 10+ win teams wouldn’t sniff the top 5 of the Advanced metrics. But now that MF has us as a top 5 power rated team back to back years I’m all in on the computers.

 

[greyhammer90]

So to simplify, it seems like we are big Texas A&M and USC fans, want Miami to lose to save us from the noise, and rooting hard for losses above us particularly from OU, Oregon, and Ole Miss.

 

[Bane]

 

[jprue24]

So all wins and losses are the same, in other words? These metrics provide clarity to a very murky landscape of college football in which 12 game seasons need to be analyzed.

What? I'm confused.

Where did I say that all wins and losses are the same? All the information about the games already played by all teams is used to determine a real time ranking, not one based on metrics predicting a team going forward.

 

[Irish#1]

BYU fans bellyaching about ND being above them must be besides themselves seeing Texas ahead of them with 3 L’s.

 

[jprue24]

who is the new commissioner they are talking about? what conference is he with

He's Arkansas' AD

 

[greyhammer90]

I used to agree that you can “only look at resume” when BK’s 10+ win teams wouldn’t sniff the top 5 of the Advanced metrics. But now that MF has us as a top 5 power rated team back to back years I’m all in on the computers.

In fairness it's actually more true now too. Conferences growing and getting rid of divisions has made comparing resumes impossible without relying on data beyond W/L.

 

[ozzman]

He's Arkansas' AD

Good thing we pushed in Arkansas' poop earlier in the season

 

[kzoondfi]

I used to only worry about MF leaving if OSU came open. With this coaching carousel I wonder if a 10-2 season and missing the playoff would be a deal breaker. Doubt it happens, but it’s lingering.

 

[Bane]

So to simplify, it seems like we are big Texas A&M and USC fans, want Miami to lose to save us from the noise, and rooting hard for losses above us particularly from OU, Oregon, and Ole Miss.

Death, taxes and Cristobal losing in November are all assured in this life.

Honestly just one loss from OU, OM, or Oregon and I think we’re 100% in.

 

[Old Man Mike]

I wonder a bit if real football people continue to know that Miami needed a desperation heave, the 2025 catch-of-the-year, and an Adon Shuler first game brain coma to win that game on one spectacular but funky play? Even were I not an ND fan, I'd remember things like that.

 

[MacIrish75]

I used to only worry about MF leaving if OSU came open. With this coaching carousel I wonder if a 10-2 season and missing the playoff would be a deal breaker. Doubt it happens, but it’s lingering.

I don’t worry about that at all. If MFMF would make that choice, he wasn’t the guy. Simple as that. Next.

I also don’t think there’s a chance in hell of that happening.