2025 College Football Playoffs

[CTIDANDREW]

The odds are -4000. Some books aren’t even taking money on ND right now.

What book is that?
DK has ND Yes -2500 No +1100

The odds were pretty high for FSU two years ago to make it as well, before the final selection show aired, then they didn’t.
Obviously, completely different circumstances.

My point is Vegas doesn’t have a whole lot of history with Yes / NO odds for the CFP selection committees that change every year, and is only in year two of the 12 team format.

I wouldn’t use it as gospel is just my two cents.

 

[jprue24]

Why did Miami leapfrog Vandy while they were on bye?

Because they re-rack and stack every week

 

[TheRealLynch51]

What book is that?
DK has ND Yes -2500 No +1100

The odds were pretty high for FSU two years ago to make it as well, before the final selection show aired, until they didn’t.

False equivalency. Jordan Travis' leg had to die for their playoff dreams to die.

 

[Bane]

So why is ND ranked so many spots ahead of Miami right now, or last week, or the week before? Miami isn't accumulating good wins. Neither do they magically get rid of their losses. That would be a terrible precedent for the committee to set. One team ranked 8 spots ahead of another team, but because other teams lose, now they flip positions for no other reason than head to head in the first game of the season?

Correct. People can interpret the guy's answer as them "getting ready to swap ND and Miami," I just think the guy was very poorly spoken and was trying to articulate that head to head matters but isn't the end all be all. Reece was also asking leading questions about if "Miami moved into ND's tier," that's a bullshit question because you're leading the witness. The chairman just said it would be a "significant factor" but no one has any idea what that means.

 

[Huntr]

So why is ND ranked so many spots ahead of Miami right now, or last week, or the week before? Miami isn't accumulating good wins. Neither do they magically get rid of their losses. That would be a terrible precedent for the committee to set. One team ranked 8 spots ahead of another team, but because other teams lose, now they flip positions for no other reason than head to head in the first game of the season?

They rank them in groups of 4 or 5 or 6 teams - those groups are the tiers.

Then they rank within the tiers.

Miami's losses were to unranked Louisville and unranked SMU, so they are in a lower tier than ND. But, they keep winning and have the ND win, so they eventually get to the top end of that lower tier. If a team that is low end in the higher tier loses, then Miami would get put into the higher tier and then ranked within that tier, where H2H comes into play.

It's dumb, but that's how it works.

 

[Dale]

OSU is very good, but they aren’t our worst matchup. They don’t have a pass rusher that would completely wreck our OL. Curry is good but undersized and Reese is used like KVA. They also don’t have a hulking OL.

A&M and Miami are still probably our worst overall matchups. Though still with their obvious flaws. Oregon I think is potentially also a bad matchup. Tech’s DL would be a matchup, as would OU but without the OL issue.

IU, UGA, Alabama and Ole Miss while better teams than some of the above do not present awful head to head matchups.

 

[stpeteirish]

False equivalency. Travis Hunters leg had to die for their playoff dreams to die.

I think you meant Jordan Travis

 

[CTIDANDREW]

False equivalency. Travis Hunters leg had to die for their playoff dreams to die.

Yes, did edit my response.
The CFP 12 team format is in its second year.

I gamble college football every week, I have the upmost respect for Vegas.
This isn’t their speciality though.
I would even guess they hate making future odds for a market like this.
They have little to no knowledge of how this specific committee is going to look at the resumes in two weeks time when both ND and Miami seasons are likely over

 

[jprue24]

Correct. People can interpret the guy's answer as them "getting ready to swap ND and Miami," I just think the guy was very poorly spoken and was trying to articulate that head to head matters but isn't the end all be all. Reece was also asking leading questions about if "Miami moved into ND's tier," that's a bullshit question because you're leading the witness. The chairman just said it would be a "significant factor" but no one has any idea what that means.

My interpretation,

It looks like SoS, SoR and how you lose determines your grouping. The h2h only matters when comparing teams within the same grouping.
He is saying that ND losses vs. Miami's has them in different groups, right now. That could change with future results and if ND and Mia are in the same group, h2h will matter

 

[NDMatt91]

So even if there's chaos with BYU and Utah losing in the regular season, couldn't ND be helped by Miami's losses, SMU and Louisville, each dropping another game or one of those two ending up with 5 losses?

SMU: Louisville, At Cal
Louisville: At SMU, Kentucky

They play this week so the loser will receive their 4th loss, but the winner of that game could easily lose to either Cal or Kentucky.

 

[ozzman]

 

[TheRealLynch51]

I think you meant Jordan Travis

Yup. Edited

 

[Bane]

I just couldn’t find it in myself to ever be this upset about some shit I don’t control. Honestly, I’ve lost the little respect I had for Miami fans the past three weeks as they have repeatedly beclowned themselves with their sniveling and weeping. If ND misses out that would suck but God I would have some composure.

 

[Bane]

So even if there's chaos with BYU and Utah losing in the regular season, couldn't ND be helped by Miami's losses, SMU and Louisville, each dropping another game or one of those two ending up with 5 losses?

SMU: Louisville, At Cal
Louisville: At SMU, Kentucky

They play this week so the loser will receive their 4th loss, but the winner of that game could easily lose to either Cal or Kentucky.

Yes and Miami could (very predictably) struggle to win while we dominate. People just assuming if certain things happen we're automatically out are being overly paranoid when there's a lot that goes into it.

 

[stpeteirish]

Yeah, I’m not sure how any ND fan could feel “confident” right now that if Miami and ND both finish 10-2 and Miami blows out Pitt that ND would stay ahead of Miami on the final ballot.

Who knows with this committee, but that answer by the chair didn’t leave me feeling great.
Plenty of football left.

Agree. This tier bs gives them a way to wiggle out of ranking Miami ahead of us after ranking them behind us for a month.
We have four common opponents. Need to crush Syracuse and Stanford to tilt that thing our way.

 

[TheRealLynch51]

I just couldn’t find it in myself to ever be this upset about some shit I don’t control. Honestly, I’ve lost the little respect I had for Miami fans the past three weeks as they have repeatedly beclowned themselves with their sniveling and weeping. If ND misses out that would suck but God I would have some composure.

I mean, you just cant get too upset about this dipshit. Somehow got a job at ESPN as a shitty gambling "guru", but really doesn't know much about football. It is what it is. Let stupid people dictate your feelings and youre gonna have a bad time. Id just be more worried about meeting him in person. One eye is trained on you and God knows what the other one is trained on.

 

[IrishLax]

I just couldn’t find it in myself to ever be this upset about some shit I don’t control. Honestly, I’ve lost the little respect I had for Miami fans the past three weeks as they have repeatedly beclowned themselves with their sniveling and weeping. If ND misses out that would suck but God I would have some composure.

It's just so weird because they are being intentionally obtuse... of course who you lose to and how you lose matters. It has ALWAYS mattered in CFB.

The logic that getting blasted by a bad team is the same as losing by 1 to a really good team makes ZERO SENSE and would obviously incentivize teams to play the easiest schedule possible. You *must* give teams a pass for close losses to elite teams or elite teams will actively avoid each other even more than they already do. So then by the same token, you *must* punish teams who lose games against soft competition.

 

[Huntr]

respect ... for Miami fans

do what, now?

 

[2013Irish]

I just couldn’t find it in myself to ever be this upset about some shit I don’t control. Honestly, I’ve lost the little respect I had for Miami fans the past three weeks as they have repeatedly beclowned themselves with their sniveling and weeping. If ND misses out that would suck but God I would have some composure.

I don't know how they can be indignant after losing to two unranked teams in three weeks.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Agree. This tier bs gives them a way to wiggle out of ranking Miami ahead of us after ranking them behind us for a month.
We have four common opponents. Need to crush Syracuse and Stanford to tilt that thing our way.

At the end of the day, the committee's job is to identify the 7 best at large teams in the field and rank the 12 teams appropriately. ND is one of the 7 best at large teams, of that I'm confident and so is Vegas.

 

[Bane]

So even if there's chaos with BYU and Utah losing in the regular season, couldn't ND be helped by Miami's losses, SMU and Louisville, each dropping another game or one of those two ending up with 5 losses?

SMU: Louisville, At Cal
Louisville: At SMU, Kentucky

They play this week so the loser will receive their 4th loss, but the winner of that game could easily lose to either Cal or Kentucky.

This is related to your point.

 

[2013Irish]

It's just so weird because they are being intentionally obtuse... of course who you lose to and how you lose matters. It has ALWAYS mattered in CFB.

The logic that getting blasted by a bad team is the same as losing by 1 to a really good team makes ZERO SENSE and would obviously incentivize teams to play the easiest schedule possible. You *must* give teams a pass for close losses to elite teams or elite teams will actively avoid each other even more than they already do. So then by the same token, you *must* punish teams who lose games against soft competition.

Yeah, isn't this why FSU won the natty in 1993 over ND?

 

[2013Irish]

I think this ultimately going to be a meaningless discourse. The odds of all of the meaningful games being chalk over the next two weeks are quite slim.

 

[Dale]

Ignore the head to head part. Miami’s best win is #9 and ND’s best win is #15. The chasm between those as data points is way smaller than Miami fans act like. They act like USC is #25. Lincoln Riley just do something one time and the gap is minimal .

 

[FWIrish4]

I don’t disagree, but how stupid is that.

“Ah. Well ND was a few spots above Miami. But now a few teams have lost, and Miami is right behind ND, so they also get to leapfrog ND.”

Exactly, I don’t think that’s how it works. Just because teams are in back to back positions in the rankings doesn’t mean they’re in the same “tier.”

Oregon as a 1 loss team is most likely being grouped with Oklahoma and ND than they are the other 1-loss teams.

 

[NDMatt91]

If/when Georgia Tech gets hammered by Georgia and wins an ugly ACC Championship, would that make the committee hesitant to put in another ACC team?

 

[TheRealLynch51]

I think this ultimately going to be a meaningless discourse. The odds of all of the meaningful games being chalk over the next two weeks are quite slim.

Agreed, but that's what internet message boards are for!

 

[jprue24]

So even if there's chaos with BYU and Utah losing in the regular season, couldn't ND be helped by Miami's losses, SMU and Louisville, each dropping another game or one of those two ending up with 5 losses?

SMU: Louisville, At Cal
Louisville: At SMU, Kentucky

They play this week so the loser will receive their 4th loss, but the winner of that game could easily lose to either Cal or Kentucky.

ND must stay out of the same grouping as Miami or they are getting jumped. That's what I took from the chairman

Assuming none of the 4 teams above ND lose, my fear is when Bama moves out of ND's group with a ccg win/loss. That brings Utah into ND's grouping and BYU losing the ccg provides a window for Miami to get into ND grouping and then jump both Utah and ND. Or both jump ND because they deem Utah better than Miami.

That all said, I can't believe the committee will put two ACC teams in

 

[Huntr]

I'm really enjoying Fallica comparing the Sagarin rank of the teams Miami and ND played, but then getting cooked in his replies by folks asking why he doesn't just use the Sagarin rankings themselves.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Also keep in mind ND positions in advanced metrics:
FPI 5th
SP+ 6th
FEI 5th
Sagarin 4th