2025 College Football Playoffs

[fightingirish26]

Miami doesn’t even have to get to the conference championship, they just have to be the highest rated ACC team. This is easily possible.

False

 

[ab2cmiller]

False

Jprue already corrected me and I thanked him. I was incorrect.

 

[GATTACA!]

It’s technically possible with Miami an at large and whoever wins the ACC being ranked below James Madison.

 

[jprue24]

It’s technically possible with Miami an at large and whoever wins the ACC being ranked below James Madison.

Yeah, that fits. Thanks.

 

[Notre Dame Joe]

ND is -4000 to make the playoffs now, implied probability of 97.56%.

The best gambler I know bet against us in likeweek 4. It was +thousands

Indiana had to get a last gasp "just wing it" TD in the back of the end zone for a win against a 6 loss P$U team!

Nit, it was 3rd and goal.

And I don't think it was a great play call. Only 3 WRs in the endzone and PSU still got pressure.




Oklahoma has the other good win in the entire SEC conference so it is not horrible that they would jump us. What's odd is that people just assumed that Bama/Ole Miss/UGA were above us.

The ACC is also getting no respect from the computers.

 

[NorthDakota]

The best gambler I know bet against us in likeweek 4. It was +thousands

Nit, it was 3rd and goal.

And I don't think it was a great play call. Only 3 WRs in the endzone and PSU still got pressure.




Oklahoma has the other good win in the entire SEC conference so it is not horrible that they would jump us. What's odd is that people just assumed that Bama/Ole Miss/UGA were above us.

The ACC is also getting no respect from the computers.

My favorite thing about all the ACC tears on social media calling for no committee and to just use metrics and models....ND is right in about the same spot there too.

Miami did one of the classic Miami things.... they beat a good team and then laid some eggs.

 

[stlnd01]

Oklahoma has the other good win in the entire SEC conference so it is not horrible that they would jump us. What's odd is that people just assumed that Bama/Ole Miss/UGA were above us.

The ACC is also getting no respect from the computers.

Ole Miss might be the most overrated team of the bunch.

They have one good win - Oklahoma by eight in a back-and-forth game - and a "good" loss, by eight points at Georgia (though I don't recall the contours of that game. Was it a close eight points?).
Beyond that they have several one-score wins over teams a playoff team should beat easily. (Kentucky, Arkansas, Wazzu by three at home) and LSU early enough that that was still impressive.

Yet they're a lock, probably to host in the first round, at this point.

It's funny how much "fewest losses" still seems to matter in this era of wildly-uneven scheduling.

 

[NDQuebec]

Here is a doomsday scenario: Michigan beats OSU during the season and goes to the conference championship vs Indiana and wins (or loses closely). The CFP committee puts ND behind Oklahoma and Alabama tomorrow. We would be 10th. Michigan would bump ND and knock them out of the top 10. The 11th and 12th spots automatically go to the ACC and James Madison or whatever.

 

[stlnd01]

Here is a doomsday scenario: Michigan beats OSU during the season and goes to the conference championship vs Indiana and wins (or loses closely). The CFP committee puts ND behind Oklahoma and Alabama tomorrow. We would be 10th. Michigan would bump ND and knock them out of the top 10. The 11th and 12th spots automatically go to the ACC and James Madison or whatever.

I mean, anything could happen. But also Michigan has shown no signs of being able to beat anyone with a pulse. Taking out Ohio State and Indiana back-to-back seems unlikely?

Would they go to the Big 10 title game if they beat Ohio State? Or would the winner of USC/Oregon? I'm unclear on the tie breakers there.

Also an interesting question where Michigan would land if they beat Ohio State and finished third in the conference at 10-2 overall. Both their losses were rough and besides Ohio State they'd have no other meaningful wins. But they would have the season's biggest win of anyone.

 

[NDFAN2008]

Here is a doomsday scenario: Michigan beats OSU during the season and goes to the conference championship vs Indiana and wins (or loses closely). The CFP committee puts ND behind Oklahoma and Alabama tomorrow. We would be 10th. Michigan would bump ND and knock them out of the top 10. The 11th and 12th spots automatically go to the ACC and James Madison or whatever.

Even if Michigan were to Beat OSU, they would still have to win the Big 10 title to even get in the playoffs they lose they'll have 3 losses. I'm not even sure if they beat MD this week.

 

[LifelongFan]

Michigan isn't beating Ohio State unless Ohio State plays it like an NFL preseason game. The talent difference is so big that Ohio State could dick around for 3 quarters and still win. Michigan is a program in free fall the further away they get from Harbaugh.

Texas Tech is also going to beat BYU/Arizona State in the Big 12 title game for the same reason. Real upsets are a thing of the past in college football with the talent level differences.

 

[Irish#1]

Ole Miss might be the most overrated team of the bunch.

They have one good win - Oklahoma by eight in a back-and-forth game - and a "good" loss, by eight points at Georgia (though I don't recall the contours of that game. Was it a close eight points?).
Beyond that they have several one-score wins over teams a playoff team should beat easily. (Kentucky, Arkansas, Wazzu by three at home) and LSU early enough that that was still impressive.

Yet they're a lock, probably to host in the first round, at this point.

It's funny how much "fewest losses" still seems to matter in this era of wildly-uneven scheduling.

Did you forget they place in the SEC, SEC, SEC? lol

 

[NorthDakota]

Michigan isn't beating Ohio State unless Ohio State plays it like an NFL preseason game. The talent difference is so big that Ohio State could dick around for 3 quarters and still win. Michigan is a program in free fall the further away they get from Harbaugh.

Texas Tech is also going to beat BYU/Arizona State in the Big 12 title game for the same reason. Real upsets are a thing of the past in college football with the talent level differences.

Real upsets happen and still will. Michigan beat Ohio State last year after all. Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois. These are still college kids who have a bad week or look past someone and get tagged.

I also wouldn't just assume Texas Tech is going to win. They already lost to Arizona State. It doesn't seem unthinkable it could happen again. BYU would certainly like another shot a Texas Tech. Maybe it'd be closer, maybe not. College football doesn't make sense.

 

[irish4ever]

Real upsets happen and still will. Michigan beat Ohio State last year after all. Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois. These are still college kids who have a bad week or look past someone and get tagged.

I also wouldn't just assume Texas Tech is going to win. They already lost to Arizona State. It doesn't seem unthinkable it could happen again. BYU would certainly like another shot a Texas Tech. Maybe it'd be closer, maybe not. College football doesn't make sense.

I agree and still have a feeling that there will be at least one team in front of the Irish (I expect ND to remain @ #9 with Okl jumping them and Bama going behind them) that will lose in the final 2 weeks. My prediction is that ND gets into the top 8 and hosts a 1st rd. game. Go Irish

 

[zelezo vlk]

 

[PolishDomer]

Does your dad control the computer in your house?

 

[PolishDomer]

So here is my question since it seems like there is conflicting information out there...do the conference champions get one of the byes? Or is it the highest ranked teams itself and would ND ever get that bye?

 

[ColoradoIrish]

View attachment 3061205

Every time I see this picture, I like to think it's another old picture of @SeekNDestroy

 

[2013Irish]

So here is my question since it seems like there is conflicting information out there...do the conference champions get one of the byes? Or is it the highest ranked teams itself and would ND ever get that bye?

The latter.

 

[irishnd31]

View attachment 3061205

Dad may control the computer in the house, but Dad has no clout when it comes to smoking freely in the basement.

 

[PutuporShutup]

So here is my question since it seems like there is conflicting information out there...do the conference champions get one of the byes? Or is it the highest ranked teams itself and would ND ever get that bye?

ND is eligible to get a bye going forward but obviously will not this year.

Most likely

1 seed - Big Ten Champ
2 seed - SEC Champ
3 seed - Big ten runner up
4 seed - SEC runner up

 

[Bane]

My favorite thing about all the ACC tears on social media calling for no committee and to just use metrics and models....ND is right in about the same spot there too.

Miami did one of the classic Miami things.... they beat a good team and then laid some eggs.

What these Miami fans don't realize is the committee clearly has no respect for them or the ACC and the only reason they're in the top 15 is that they pulled out a win in August against us. They keep pointing to head to head or whatever but that is a tiebreaker. The committee clearly doesn't view us as equals to them.

 

[Bane]

BYU fans coping in the comments.

 

[NorthDakota]

What these Miami fans don't realize is the committee clearly has no respect for them or the ACC and the only reason they're in the top 15 is that they pulled out a win in August against us. They keep pointing to head to head or whatever but that is a tiebreaker. The committee clearly doesn't view us as equals to them.

I am actually very sympathetic to the "head to head" thing, but like you said, the committee has pretty clearly rejected the idea that there is a need for a tiebreaker. Based on how voters and the committee have ranked ND, it actually kinda feels like Notre Dame has a hockey record of 8 wins, 1 loss, and 1 overtime loss.

 

[Free Manera]

I'm starting to think the committee might put Bama behind ND this week to avoid the potential issue of having to leave ND out.

 

[Bane]

I am actually very sympathetic to the "head to head" thing, but like you said, the committee has pretty clearly rejected the idea that there is a need for a tiebreaker. Based on how voters and the committee have ranked ND, it actually kinda feels like Notre Dame has a hockey record of 8 wins, 1 loss, and 1 overtime loss.

If ND had replicated the BC game multiple times against Arkansas, Boise, NCSt., etc. I could see their point to an extent. However, considering the ND trophy case is missing a national title under basically the exact same circumstances...well it just sort of is what is to me.

 

[Bane]

I'm starting to think the committee might put Bama behind ND this week to avoid the potential issue of having to leave ND out.

I'm still not convinced OU will jump us either. They could and I wouldn't complain, but we blew the doors off of a ranked team on the road. OU's win was obviously better, but they didn't really convincingly beat Alabama so I could see a world where it goes ND-OU-Bama. But, we'll see.

 

[IrishLax]

I am actually very sympathetic to the "head to head" thing, but like you said, the committee has pretty clearly rejected the idea that there is a need for a tiebreaker. Based on how voters and the committee have ranked ND, it actually kinda feels like Notre Dame has a hockey record of 8 wins, 1 loss, and 1 overtime loss.

Yup, head-to-head is meant to sort two teams that are basically vying for the same spot, or up to three teams if there was a clear A beat B beat C with them all having similar metrics. It has no bearing on evaluation/seeding beyond that.

Notre Dame is being sorted with Oklahoma, Bama, Utah, Vandy, Miami, and USC as two loss teams. BYU and Georgia Tech are in that mix as 1-loss teams with horrible SOS / metrics... both only have a single win over a Top 40 opponent and have struggled mightily in some games... but really what we are talking about is that you have to sort SEVEN two-loss teams...

Miami does not have a good case on metrics to be over Vandy or Utah (or even really USC but they will take care of themselves one way or another with the Oregon game). Bad losses, worse SOS, only thing they have to hang their hat on is the ND win.

So you can't jump Miami all the way up to like #9 or #10 just based on beating ND when ND profiles more in the conversation with Oklahoma/Bama (ND has worse wins but better overall metrics than those schools).

 

[Old Man Mike]

Committee's eye-testing right now.

Who do we think is Wowing them more? (We did some amazing things vs Pitt.)

They still might choose the wrong way, but ...

 

[Bane]

Yup, head-to-head is meant to sort two teams that are basically vying for the same spot, or up to three teams if there was a clear A beat B beat C with them all having similar metrics. It has no bearing on evaluation/seeding beyond that.

Notre Dame is being sorted with Oklahoma, Bama, Utah, Vandy, Miami, and USC as two loss teams. BYU and Georgia Tech are in that mix as 1-loss teams with horrible SOS / metrics... both only have a single win over a Top 40 opponent and have struggled mightily in some games... but really what we are talking about is that you have to sort SEVEN two-loss teams...

Miami does not have a good case on metrics to be over Vandy or Utah (or even really USC but they will take care of themselves one way or another with the Oregon game). Bad losses, worse SOS, only thing they have to hang their hat on is the ND win.

So you can't jump Miami all the way up to like #9 or #10 just based on beating ND when ND profiles more in the conversation with Oklahoma/Bama (ND has worse wins but better overall metrics than those schools).

Well put. Miami fans, understandably to a degree, have a myopic, narrow view of it and just view the ND ranking in a vacuum. But honestly, I think some of them are so broken by their ND Derangement Syndrome that they would be fine be ranked 15 so long as we were 16. It feels like some of them just want to be ranked ahead of us and don't care about making the playoffs.