2025 College Football Playoffs

[InKellyWeTrust]

Hearing a lot of talk saying that we are pretty much tied to Miami… if they don’t lose another game, we are out… obv due to the head to head. Thoughts on that ?

Not true and there is already precedent for something similar with head to head.

 

[NDFAN2008]

I think a lot is gonna come down to how Miami looks against NC State and Pitt vs how we look, we need to come out and spank Pitt, we can't have one of these games where we come out flat and have a 3 point lead at halftime.

 

[stlnd01]

Hearing a lot of talk saying that we are pretty much tied to Miami… if they don’t lose another game, we are out… obv due to the head to head. Thoughts on that ?

I'm gonna see where we stand relative to them in the poll Tuesday before drawing any conclusions. Agree would help if we take care of business against our common opponents.

 

[IrishTusker]

Hearing a lot of talk saying that we are pretty much tied to Miami… if they don’t lose another game, we are out… obv due to the head to head. Thoughts on that ?

I don't know if that is true, but both us and them can get in. Them getting in does not "exclude" us, just like Georgia or Oregon losing to other CFP teams does not "exclude" them.

 

[slick7410]

How is it possible that Virginia is 8-1 (5-0 in the ACC) but lost to NC State, who is in the ACC?>

They decided to call it a non-conference game or something?

 

[burmafrd1944]

Things worked out nicely for us yesterday

bottom line is we win out and it would be a huge surprise not to get in

 

[Huntr]

How is it possible that Virginia is 8-1 (5-0 in the ACC) but lost to NC State, who is in the ACC?>

They decided to call it a non-conference game or something?

Yes, that is what they did

 

[IrishSpartan]

Almost every result went ND's way yesterday.

They will be in the top 10 of the playoff rankings this week. Win and in.

Was Miami losing really okay for us? I dont know if we want them to fall apart, but right now they are behind Louisville, Virginia, and GT. A Two Team ACC playoff is extremely bad for us.

 

[IRISHbluehen]

Even if the BC game doesn't show it, I think if ND wins their final 4 game, it will be pretty clear that ND is ascending while Miami is descending. Think the eye test will win out over head to head when the game will have been 3 months before selection Sunday.

 

[Katzenboyer]

Miami is absolutely losing another game, my friends. Pitt, NC State, or both.

They're not a good football team right now and haven't been since the first half of the FSU game.

 

[stpeteirish]

How is it possible that Virginia is 8-1 (5-0 in the ACC) but lost to NC State, who is in the ACC?>

They decided to call it a non-conference game or something?

Yeah, but the did it before the season. Probably couldn't get a better non conference game.

 

[stlnd01]

Miami is absolutely losing another game, my friends. Pitt, NC State, or both.

They're not a good football team right now and haven't been since the first half of the FSU game.

Miami goes to Pitt on Thanksgiving weekend. In one universe, they see that as a playoff play-in game and come out firing on all cylinders - in which case they're a pretty good team.
More likely - and especially if they're ranked outside the playoff bracket at that point - they're cold and ready for the season to be over and they get beat.

 

[LifelongFan]

Unless the head to head trumps all, I think the ACC is pretty locked in as a one bid league. I think that's very possible but Miami looks BAD and it might not matter.

Vandy and Tennessee both losing is great. They had easier schedules left than Texas (A&M, @Georgia) and Oklahoma (@Bama, Mizzou, potentially reignited LSU), so there is a good shot the SEC will only have 4 teams with two or fewer losses. Probably want to root for Tech on Saturday because I feel like that would turn the Big 12 championship into an elimination game.

Some teams I feel that are down low in the standings or not ranked that can still get in: Duke (tiebreakers work supremely well in their favor), Utah (playing great football but are screwed in a head to head, could work their way up to 10/11 maybe?), USC, Washington, or Iowa (if Oregon loses to one of them that team could very well win out and be 10-2), LSU (resume is not terrible if they get reignited by Kelly's firing, crazier things have happened), San Diego State, ECU (tiebreakers in their favor in the AAC I believe). A lot of football left but everything went well for us on Saturday.

 

[Katzenboyer]

Miami goes to Pitt on Thanksgiving weekend. In one universe, they see that as a playoff play-in game and come out firing on all cylinders - in which case they're a pretty good team.
More likely - and especially if they're ranked outside the playoff bracket at that point - they're cold and ready for the season to be over and they get beat.

So exactly the scenario that played out last year when they played Syracuse on Thanksgiving and lost to miss the playoffs.

 

[Dale]

 

[irish4ever]

well Tech plays BYU next week which should be a hell of a game

Tech will boatrace BYU.

 

[Irish du Nord]

Yeah, but the did it before the season. Probably couldn't get a better non conference game.

Was this the one UVA scheduled after IU pussied out?

 

[bcole2]

Here's my projection for tomorrow:

1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Ole Miss
8. BYU
9. Texas Tech
10. Texas
11. Oklahoma
12. Notre Dame
13. Louisville
14. Vanderbilt
15. Virginia
16. Utah
17. Missouri
18. Georgia Tech
19. Miami
20. USC
21. Michigan
22. Washington
23. Iowa
24. Memphis
25. Cincinnati

I'm always a pessimist when it comes to where I think ND is going to be ranked in order to be pleasantly surprised, but I wouldn't be surprised if both SEC teams are above us based on the SOR metrics that I have looked at.

 

[stlnd01]

Here's my projection for tomorrow:

1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Texas A&M
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Ole Miss
8. BYU
9. Texas Tech
10. Texas
11. Oklahoma
12. Notre Dame


I'm always a pessimist when it comes to where I think ND is going to be ranked in order to be pleasantly surprised, but I wouldn't be surprised if both SEC teams are above us based on the SOR metrics that I have looked at.

Not trying to be contrary but curious why you think Texas and Oklahoma will get a bump from SOR but A&M (#1 in SOR) and BYU (#4) will not? (or is it more that you think our #15 SOR ranking will weigh us down?)

I've no idea how the CFP really measures advanced statistics, and which ones it values more than others (my current favorite, of course, is FPI!), just curious.

FWIW I doubt Texas or Oklahoma will survive their remaining schedules unscathed, but if they do they'll deserve a spot over us. So this probably sorts itself out on the field.

 

[RudyVerse]

I think our floor tonight is 12 and our ceiling is 9. Pretty great place to be sitting with 4 weeks to go. Just hoping to avoid the round 2 against OSU. I'd rather a lower seed and play on the road that deal with PTSD.

 

[IrishSpartan]

I think our floor tonight is 12 and our ceiling is 9. Pretty great place to be sitting with 4 weeks to go. Just hoping to avoid the round 2 against OSU. I'd rather a lower seed and play on the road that deal with PTSD.

I bet 13

 

[Dale]

The only way OU is above us, and therefore Texas IMO is if they rank Tennessee, who has no business being in the Top 30 even.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

Add Saban in too. He's been singing our praises all season. After Miami he said we would go 11-1. After the Aggies he said we would go 10-2. I'm not used to such positive media attention.

He said on the first Gameday of 2025 that he thinks this is one of the deepest, well constructed rosters and was very complementary of the coaching staff. Even Herbie was optimistic about Carr before the season kicked off.

I agree, odd hearing majority of the Gameday crew sticking with ND even after an 0-2 start. Pat isn't a big ND guy though and we all know Des...lol

 

[bcole2]

Not trying to be contrary but curious why you think Texas and Oklahoma will get a bump from SOR but A&M (#1 in SOR) and BYU (#4) will not? (or is it more that you think our #15 SOR ranking will weigh us down?)

I've no idea how the CFP really measures advanced statistics, and which ones it values more than others (my current favorite, of course, is FPI!), just curious.

FWIW I doubt Texas or Oklahoma will survive their remaining schedules unscathed, but if they do they'll deserve a spot over us. So this probably sorts itself out on the field.

Yeah you make a great point about BYU and A&M. I think that they both should be higher but don’t necessarily think the committee will do it. I was just kinda messing around last night while having trouble falling asleep. I was using the average of the 3 FEI SOR metrics as a rough guide, so mostly I would say it’s our lower rankings dragging us down compared to OU and Texas. I agree that it will play itself out with their remaining schedules.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Yeah you make a great point about BYU and A&M. I think that they both should be higher but don’t necessarily think the committee will do it. I was just kinda messing around last night while having trouble falling asleep. I was using the average of the 3 FEI SOR metrics as a rough guide, so mostly I would say it’s our lower rankings dragging us down compared to OU and Texas. I agree that it will play itself out with their remaining schedules.

I think the committee looks at similar teams in terms of resume and asks who would win on a neutral field. I think ND wins every one of those what ifs.

 

[Rocketman84]

Not true and there is already precedent for something similar with head to head.

Agreed, we absolutely have precedent

 

[Wild Bill]

I'm curious where they rank USC tonight. Currently #20 in teh AP, but they are quite a bit higher in the FPI and SP. MIzzou, Miami, Utah and Georgia Tech all ranked in front of them. Wouldn't be shocked if USC was a bit higher than 20 tonight.

 

[KPENN]

I'm curious where they rank USC tonight. Currently #20 in teh AP, but they are quite a bit higher in the FPI and SP. MIzzou, Miami, Utah and Georgia Tech all ranked in front of them. Wouldn't be shocked if USC was a bit higher than 20 tonight.

USC beating Illinois woulda been so clutch

 

[Dale]

USC beating Illinois woulda been so clutch

They had a food poisoning outbreak on them team. Defense became even more….shitty.

 

[GATTACA!]

They had a food poisoning outbreak on them team. Defense became even more….shitty.