Russia Invades Ukraine

PerthDomer

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Is there any other kind of war?

What stuff? The east and the south.

You said get back. The correct verbiage is take. That land has been Ukranian since it was a country. Russia also claims land they don't really have a good shot of taking. No way the Ukranians are giving that up.
 

NorthDakota

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You said get back. The correct verbiage is take. That land has been Ukranian since it was a country. Russia also claims land they don't really have a good shot of taking. No way the Ukranians are giving that up.
Take, get back, whatever terms you choose...the result is the same. Russia is probably going to get land in the end.

Ukraine will probably give up whatever they are told to by the United States government.
 

calvegas04

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Take, get back, whatever terms you choose...the result is the same. Russia is probably going to get land in the end.

Ukraine will probably give up whatever they are told to by the United States government.
Hope the small amount of land they are trying to steal from Ukraine is worth half their military
 

ab2cmiller

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Hope the small amount of land they are trying to steal from Ukraine is worth half their military
At this point, Putin probably feels like he has no other choice. He's not going to lose half his military and come out with nothing. Try selling that to the Russian public.
 

PerthDomer

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At this point, Putin probably feels like he has no other choice. He's not going to lose half his military and come out with nothing. Try selling that to the Russian public.

The estimated casualty figures for Russia right now are the highest of the war thus far. As Ukraine's ammo situation improves things are going to get worse for Russian casualty rates. Maybe Ukraine can't get its land back, but Putin's mortgaged his country's future over this.
 

IRISHDODGER

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The estimated casualty figures for Russia right now are the highest of the war thus far. As Ukraine's ammo situation improves things are going to get worse for Russian casualty rates. Maybe Ukraine can't get its land back, but Putin's mortgaged his country's future over this.
History tells us that Russia/USSR that they have no issue just throwing troops at the situation, let them get mowed down & throw more at the situation. They relied on outlasting their foes and it usually worked.
 

NorthDakota

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The estimated casualty figures for Russia right now are the highest of the war thus far. As Ukraine's ammo situation improves things are going to get worse for Russian casualty rates. Maybe Ukraine can't get its land back, but Putin's mortgaged his country's future over this.
So are Ukraine's. Though I don't know how much veracity I give to either's guesses of how things are going.

Russia isn't going to let Ukraine become an American puppet (it's current gov so desperately wants to be).
 

GATTACA!

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Russia isn't going to let Ukraine become an American puppet (it's current gov so desperately wants to be).
Bike-Fall.jpg
 

PerthDomer

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So are Ukraine's. Though I don't know how much veracity I give to either's guesses of how things are going.

Russia isn't going to let Ukraine become an American puppet (it's current gov so desperately wants to be).

Ukraine wants to join the EU and integrate into the common market. That's what the Russians want to prevent.
 

drayer54

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We can't even deliver aid to Gaza for a half billion. We prob need to sit out until the grown-ups take over.
 

PerthDomer

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We can't even deliver aid to Gaza for a half billion. We prob need to sit out until the grown-ups take over.

The Gaza pier is something no other military in the world could even attempt. It's a difficult undertaking and has now born some fruit (it wasn't expected to deliver enough to solve the problem, just pressure Israel).

What does that have to do with Ukraine?
 

sixstar

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Yeah, because assassinating Putin is sure to alleviate global conflict...
 

Irish#1

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Russia losing and Putin staying in power seems fine. We'll swap out our old dudes eventually and they'll be stuck with an out of touch weak old autocrat.
You're okay with Putin killing thousands of innocent Ukrainian citizens, constantly poisoning political opponents and sending Russian citizens to Siberia to keep them quiet? Just because Joe doesn't remember if he had his oatmeal in the morning doesn't mean Putin will end up that way.
 

PerthDomer

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You're okay with Putin killing thousands of innocent Ukrainian citizens, constantly poisoning political opponents and sending Russian citizens to Siberia to keep them quiet? Just because Joe doesn't remember if he had his oatmeal in the morning doesn't mean Putin will end up that way.

If Putin is replaced it will be by another ultra nationalistic hardliner, potentially younger and more competent. If Russia does poorly in the war or has trouble after there'll likely be a cult of Putin that hangs around and derails change/reform.

I'd rather the whole war be blamed on him as well as the aftermath.

And listening to him talk he's already more delusional than Trump and not checked by his political system. A poorly functioning leader hurts a lot more in their system than ours.
 

Irish#1

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If Putin is replaced it will be by another ultra nationalistic hardliner, potentially younger and more competent. If Russia does poorly in the war or has trouble after there'll likely be a cult of Putin that hangs around and derails change/reform.

I'd rather the whole war be blamed on him as well as the aftermath.

And listening to him talk he's already more delusional than Trump and not checked by his political system. A poorly functioning leader hurts a lot more in their system than ours.
Why does everyone assume they will be worse? They might be more hardline, but they may not have designs on recreating the Soviet Union. Putin wants to recreate it as part of his legacy. He wants to be looked at in the same manner as Lenin and Stalin, not Yeltsin or Gorbachev.
 

PerthDomer

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Why does everyone assume they will be worse? They might be more hardline, but they may not have designs on recreating the Soviet Union. Putin wants to recreate it as part of his legacy. He wants to be looked at in the same manner as Lenin and Stalin, not Yeltsin or Gorbachev.

When you look at the guys surrounding Putin they're all in on recreating Imperial (not soviet) Russia. They can't sell their population on improved standards of living, so they have to sell them on imperial expansion. And at this point, the war has increased the influence of the national security folks in Russia.

Their issue now is that they've pushed off a lot of infrastructure spending to focus on the war effort. They don't really have many spare workers and are cut off from a lot of the world economy. Once this is done, the transition from war to peace economy is usually messy (see the inflation post ww1, ww2, Korean war). Their demographics are worsening and they need to spend a ton just to get infrastructure where it was before the war.

They're going to have a tough time once the war ends, and it'll be tougher the longer they fight the war.
 

greyhammer90

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Why does everyone assume they will be worse? They might be more hardline, but they may not have designs on recreating the Soviet Union. Putin wants to recreate it as part of his legacy. He wants to be looked at in the same manner as Lenin and Stalin, not Yeltsin or Gorbachev.

I'll add that it seems unlikely to me that they would be more competent. Dictatorships tend to result in the advancement of cronies. Cronies are good at being cronies, not being effective leaders. Somebody who was as good as Putin would've already been dispatched by Putin.

That's the fun thing about the US system. It's a total fucking mess, but even the biggest screw-up of a President and surrounding administration only gets 4-8 years and are handcuffed by a system that is purposefully designed to slow them down.
 

Irish#1

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I'll add that it seems unlikely to me that they would be more competent. Dictatorships tend to result in the advancement of cronies. Cronies are good at being cronies, not being effective leaders. Somebody who was as good as Putin would've already been dispatched by Putin.

That's the fun thing about the US system. It's a total fucking mess, but even the biggest screw-up of a President and surrounding administration only gets 4-8 years and are handcuffed by a system that is purposefully designed to slow them down.
That's the truth.
 

PerthDomer

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That's the truth.

Putin's skill was being the best at consolidating power in the 1990s. He's probably more divorced from military/economic reality than his underlings.

Mao and Stalin both got succeeded by more capable leaders. It's hard to say what follows Putin, but they could easily be more unhinged, more efficient in governing, etc.
 

Irish#1

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Putin's skill was being the best at consolidating power in the 1990s. He's probably more divorced from military/economic reality than his underlings.

Mao and Stalin both got succeeded by more capable leaders. It's hard to say what follows Putin, but they could easily be more unhinged, more efficient in governing, etc.
I'm not denying that the next guy could be worse, but dismissing the chance that the next guy in the batters box may not be as bad, is shortsighted.
 
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