Russia Invades Ukraine

P

PerthDomer

Well-known member
Messages
1,326
Reaction score
483
NorthDakota said:
They didn't care in 2014 when Russia went in. I wonder what changed
Click to expand...

I mean we aided the Ukranians then. We just knew at the time their military couldn't survive a real war with Russia and we weren't going to send NATO forces to meet the Russians head on.

With this conflict we've offloaded old weapons, invested in new stuff, gotten finland/sweden into NATO and finally gotten the Europeans to start rebuilding their military industrial base. We've also significantly reduced the chances Russia tries something in the Baltics or Moldova/Romania.

For a historic parallel I wonder how different world history would be if we'd sent weapons to the Ethiopians when Mussolini invaded.
 
P

PerthDomer

Well-known member
Messages
1,326
Reaction score
483
RDU Irish said:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/com... 18 (Reuters),did not hurt American producers.

More recently we could have maintained sanctions on Russian fertilizers...we chose to send weapons two years later to Ukraine instead. We refuse to fully engage in the economic war but happy to kill millions by proxy. Beware the military industrial complex.
Click to expand...

We did that to avoid causing famine which could increase Russian favorability in the 3rd world and collapse a lot of governments which would potentially empower some radical Islamic groups.

Egypt is a country that could collapse if food prices shoot up. Imagine the Middle East if Egypt fell into an ISIS situation...
 
RDU Irish

RDU Irish

Catholics vs. Cousins
Messages
8,627
Reaction score
2,732
PerthDomer said:
We did that to avoid causing famine which could increase Russian favorability in the 3rd world and collapse a lot of governments which would potentially empower some radical Islamic groups.

Egypt is a country that could collapse if food prices shoot up. Imagine the Middle East if Egypt fell into an ISIS situation...
Click to expand...

JFC - do you even hear yourself? Avoid famine? Like we wouldn't be able to grow our crops without Russian fertilizer? IF that were true - wouldn't you want to do something about the dumping for years that strained the US fertilizer producers? No, lets waive ALL sanctions so Russia can continue dump. Europe is largely shutting down it's fertilizer production b/c their decades long work to be dependent on Russian gas came home to roost. Europe was dependent on Russia for energy and will be for food too (Ukraine accounts for 1/6th of global grain exports). Russia is playing a long game cornering markets on actual necessities - part of that is dumping cheap fertilizer on global markets.

All in on war, unless my Corn Pops cost more, then I'm out. Brave. Also ignore that half our corn goes into the ethanol boondoggle - Farmers are a powerful lobby. Just amazing how easily they are able to scare people into maximizing their profits.
 
RDU Irish

RDU Irish

Catholics vs. Cousins
Messages
8,627
Reaction score
2,732
PerthDomer said:
We did that to avoid causing famine which could increase Russian favorability in the 3rd world and collapse a lot of governments which would potentially empower some radical Islamic groups.

Egypt is a country that could collapse if food prices shoot up. Imagine the Middle East if Egypt fell into an ISIS situation...
Click to expand...

You make a strong case for peace ASAP. Get that region back to farming and transporting fertilizer. Russia produces a massive amount of fertilizer in that area not to mention the adjoining Russian land is their breadbasket. I am still of the belief that Russia's "record" cereals last year was a function of stolen Ukrainian grains and utilizing stranded fertilizer rather than sustainable production gains.

Exports of cereals from Russia 2023/2024 | Statista.

As for Ukraine - despite exports holding up recently it seems highly likely they are depleting stores and will be normalizing well below pre-war levels.

"USDA estimates of harvested area in MY 2023/24 have declined 32 percent, 27 percent, and 37 percent from MY 2021/22 levels for wheat, corn, and barley, respectively. While areas farmed with oilseed are expected to increase in the MY 2024/25 season, the net area of land farmed with major crops has decreased by 19.5 percent in the past two years. Further, Russia’s recent strike on two food export terminals in the Black Sea port of Pivdennyi is the 39th attack on the Odesa region’s port infrastructure alone. The impacts of Russia’s well-documented, targeted campaign against Ukrainian agriculture have been immense: Ukraine’s agriculture sector has incurred over $80 billion in losses and damages since Russia’s invasion, according to the Kyiv School of Economics."

Setting the Record Straight on Ukraine’s Grain Exports
 
Last edited:
Sea Turtle

Sea Turtle

Slow and steady wins the race
Messages
5,645
Reaction score
3,488
RDU Irish said:
JFC - do you even hear yourself? Avoid famine? Like we wouldn't be able to grow our crops without Russian fertilizer? IF that were true - wouldn't you want to do something about the dumping for years that strained the US fertilizer producers? No, lets waive ALL sanctions so Russia can continue dump. Europe is largely shutting down it's fertilizer production b/c their decades long work to be dependent on Russian gas came home to roost. Europe was dependent on Russia for energy and will be for food too (Ukraine accounts for 1/6th of global grain exports). Russia is playing a long game cornering markets on actual necessities - part of that is dumping cheap fertilizer on global markets.

All in on war, unless my Corn Pops cost more, then I'm out. Brave. Also ignore that half our corn goes into the ethanol boondoggle - Farmers are a powerful lobby. Just amazing how easily they are able to scare people into maximizing their profits.
Click to expand...

My cinnamon toast crunch and Count Chocula cost more now:(
 
Sea Turtle

Sea Turtle

Slow and steady wins the race
Messages
5,645
Reaction score
3,488
RDU Irish said:
Did you mean to highlight the absolute best and worst cereals in the aisle?
Click to expand...

The best are Captain Crunch with Crunch Berries and Fruity Pebbles. But I'm an adult now so I had to switch to something more mature and healthy 😞
 
P

PerthDomer

Well-known member
Messages
1,326
Reaction score
483
RDU Irish said:
JFC - do you even hear yourself? Avoid famine? Like we wouldn't be able to grow our crops without Russian fertilizer? IF that were true - wouldn't you want to do something about the dumping for years that strained the US fertilizer producers? No, lets waive ALL sanctions so Russia can continue dump. Europe is largely shutting down it's fertilizer production b/c their decades long work to be dependent on Russian gas came home to roost. Europe was dependent on Russia for energy and will be for food too (Ukraine accounts for 1/6th of global grain exports). Russia is playing a long game cornering markets on actual necessities - part of that is dumping cheap fertilizer on global markets.

All in on war, unless my Corn Pops cost more, then I'm out. Brave. Also ignore that half our corn goes into the ethanol boondoggle - Farmers are a powerful lobby. Just amazing how easily they are able to scare people into maximizing their profits.
Click to expand...

If we had wanted we could gave stopped all Russian exports food fertilizer and oil. It probably would have thrown the world into depression/recession with oil prices doubling/tripling. The US would be fine as far as food goes, but you'd have famine in a lot of the poor food importing countries. Russia makes money exporting fertilizer, but it isn't close to what they get from petrochemicals. The juice isn't worth the squeeze there.

I do think we've made a mistake in discouraging targeting Russian oil refineries/limiting Ukrainian access to ATACAMS/striking appropriate targets within Russia.

Basically I think our main mistakes have been slow walking/conditioning weapons to Ukraine. Most of the economics/sanctions make sense from a risk/benefit perspective.
 
RDU Irish

RDU Irish

Catholics vs. Cousins
Messages
8,627
Reaction score
2,732
PerthDomer said:
If we had wanted we could gave stopped all Russian exports food fertilizer and oil. It probably would have thrown the world into depression/recession with oil prices doubling/tripling. The US would be fine as far as food goes, but you'd have famine in a lot of the poor food importing countries. Russia makes money exporting fertilizer, but it isn't close to what they get from petrochemicals. The juice isn't worth the squeeze there.

I do think we've made a mistake in discouraging targeting Russian oil refineries/limiting Ukrainian access to ATACAMS/striking appropriate targets within Russia.

Basically I think our main mistakes have been slow walking/conditioning weapons to Ukraine. Most of the economics/sanctions make sense from a risk/benefit perspective.
Click to expand...

US sanctions would make Russian goods relatively cheaper and more available to non-US buyers. Your story makes no sense.

And "juice worth the squeeze"? Controlling half the world's food and energy is pretty damn juicy for a non-economic super-power. If the US were serious about the "problem" we would sanction Russian goods. Much cheaper than $100B to subsidize farmers' fertilizer purchases if they are really worried about inflation (I'm sorry just hard not to LOL at your inflation pearl clutching in the context of the last two decades).
 
P

PerthDomer

Well-known member
Messages
1,326
Reaction score
483
RDU Irish said:
US sanctions would make Russian goods relatively cheaper and more available to non-US buyers. Your story makes no sense.

And "juice worth the squeeze"? Controlling half the world's food and energy is pretty damn juicy for a non-economic super-power. If the US were serious about the "problem" we would sanction Russian goods. Much cheaper than $100B to subsidize farmers' fertilizer purchases if they are really worried about inflation (I'm sorry just hard not to LOL at your inflation pearl clutching in the context of the last two decades).
Click to expand...

In terms of Russian Fertilizer exports, we have the ability to make it very difficult to move goods via financial sanctions. The fertilizer they produce goes to many agriculturally important countries not named the United States. Brazil, China, India, Mexico, etc.

They also export a lot of wheat. If say we cut off all Russian/Belarusian food and fertilizer exports somehow you'd probably get rerouting of exports through China/central Asia, some alternative production of fertilizer, expansion of wheat production elsewhere, etc.

Most of the cost of food in the US goes to labor and transportation costs. We'd get a price rise but it wouldn't be catastrophic. In Africa/poor middle eastern countries etc. Most of the cost of food is the cost of wheat. You'd see starvation/famine there in response.


The total value of Russian exports is over 400 billion. Russian agricultural exports are tiny in dollar terms. Over 63% of their exports are just energy. The next largest category is metals/other commodities. Wheat is 1.2% of their exports, Nitrogenous fertilizer is pretty similar.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top