Bowl Projections 2023

[PutuporShutup]

Not ND! InDePeNdEnCe

Edit, nvm, it's a 1st round BYE we're self mutilating to, not ability to play at home.

correct, we can and should be getting some first round home games

 

[NDohio]

correct, we can and should be getting some first round home games, but never a second round home game

Kinda tough, our pathway to the final four, the game before, will always be at another persons home field, even if we're better and higher ranked.

Unless something changes in the future, the second round games will be bowl games. No one will be having a home game.

 

[PutuporShutup]

Unless something changes in the future, the second round games will be bowl games. No one will be having a home game.

you are correct, i miss read that awhile ago
2024 CFP Schedule

GAME	DATE
First round	Dec. 20-21
Fiesta Bowl | Quarterfinals	Dec. 31
Peach, Rose, Sugar Bowl | Quarterfinals	Jan. 1
Orange Bowl | Semifinals	Jan. 9
Cotton Bowl | Semifinals	Jan. 10
Atlanta, GA | National Championship	Jan. 20

 

[Reaper97]

Hear me out on this thought…

12 team CFP next year

ND can only go as high as a 5 seed no matter what

Does ND, & possible other teams in the unique situation, play the final week like the NFL does when their playoff seedlings can’t improve?

Let’s say ND is #1 in the AP/Coaches, 11-0.
But can’t go any higher than 5th in CFP.

In the NFL teams rest players & don’t care if they lose the last game if it can’t improve their seeding.

Does ND rest the starters & not care if they lose, because they would drop to 5th anyways, if they were 12-0 or 11-1. Especially if the loss benefitted ND by hurting someone else legit.

Think about it. Your record doesn’t mean anything anymore once the CFP starts. If ND would be #5 no matter what, why risk injury?

 

[NDRock]

Hear me out on this thought…

12 team CFP next year

ND can only go as high as a 5 seed no matter what

Does ND, & possible other teams in the unique situation, play the final week like the NFL does when their playoff seedlings can’t improve?

Let’s say ND is #1 in the AP/Coaches, 11-0.
But can’t go any higher than 5th in CFP.

In the NFL teams rest players & don’t care if they lose the last game if it can’t improve their seeding.

Does ND rest the starters & not care if they lose, because they would drop to 5th anyways, if they were 12-0 or 11-1. Especially if the loss benefitted ND by hurting someone else legit.

Think about it. Your record doesn’t mean anything anymore once the CFP starts. If ND would be #5 no matter what, why risk injury?

I wouldn't because you are dealing with a committee who may just choose to screw you over (and drop you way down). The NFL doesn't have that asinine aspect to its postseason.

 

[irishfan]

I would hope a committee would drop a team some spots for losing if they rest all starters.

#5 seed is actually a great spot to be. You get to host #12 (very likely the Group of 5 team) and then play the #4 seed who is probably the Big 12 champ. Going forward that seems like an easy path if we are ever 12-0 and grumbling about not being a top-4 seed.

 

[Reaper97]

I wouldn't because you are dealing with a committee who may just choose to screw you over (and drop you way down). The NFL doesn't have that asinine aspect to its postseason.

If you start them, play them a few series, then work your backups in, & play to win with who you have in the game, how could there punish you?
They even have said if a star player is hurt, but will be back for the playoff, they view you as if you have him moving forward.

 

[Reaper97]

I would hope a committee would drop a team some spots for losing if they rest all starters.

#5 seed is actually a great spot to be. You get to host #12 (very likely the Group of 5 team) and then play the #4 seed who is probably the Big 12 champ. Going forward that seems like an easy path if we are ever 12-0 and grumbling about not being a top-4 seed.

They would drop, to 5.
If you are 11-1, even with the loss, are better then the other teams 6-12, they shouldn’t drop you.
And the best group of 5 team might be better most years than a 3rd place Big12 team.

 

[NDRock]

If you start them, play them a few series, then work your backups in, & play to win with who you have in the game, how could there punish you?
They even have said if a star player is hurt, but will be back for the playoff, they view you as if you have him moving forward.

I agree with you, in theory. College football has a long history of weighing your losses based on when they occurred. We all know how 1993 unfolded. Us and FSU both ended up with one loss but we beat them head-to-head. If the Boston College loss happened the same way, in the first week of the season, then Notre Dame would have been crowned National Champs. Same results, same record, but different ranking at the end. There are countless examples of that happening through the years.

 

[Reaper97]

I agree with you, in theory. College football has a long history of weighing your losses based on when they occurred. We all know how 1993 unfolded. Us and FSU both ended up with one loss but we beat them head-to-head. If the Boston College loss happened the same way, in the first week of the season, then Notre Dame would have been crowned National Champs. Same results, same record, but different ranking at the end. There are countless examples of that happening through the years.

The biggest thing for me in this is you would drop to 5th even if you won the last game.
There is literally no benefit to winning, only negative of injuries.
This scenario is only applicable if ND was #1, 11-0 & winning/losing the last game had no bearing on their seed.

 

[NDRock]

The biggest thing for me in this is you would drop to 5th even if you won the last game.
There is literally no benefit to winning, only negative of injuries.
This scenario is only applicable if ND was #1, 11-0 & winning/losing the last game had no bearing on their seed.

Yeah, I could see that. The one downside is that we always play USC or Stanford our last game (may change). Under no circumstance would I advocate losing to either of those teams, no matter the playoff implications.

 

[Reaper97]

Yeah, I could see that. The one downside is that we always play USC or Stanford our last game (may change). Under no circumstance would I advocate losing to either of those teams, no matter the playoff implications.

I was guessing that will change because the B1G will want USC in spotlight conference games that week?

 

[NDRock]

I was guessing that will change because the B1G will want USC in spotlight conference games that week?

Probably right.

 

[KizerRolls]

With all the conference realignment, it seems like they should reconsider the “top 4 conference champions” rule right? I can see the SEC and Big 10 champs having automatic bids. But are the Big 12 and ACC worthy? That decision was made prior to all the movement.

 

[Irish Knuckles]

I would hope a committee would drop a team some spots for losing if they rest all starters.

#5 seed is actually a great spot to be. You get to host #12 (very likely the Group of 5 team) and then play the #4 seed who is probably the Big 12 champ. Going forward that seems like an easy path if we are ever 12-0 and grumbling about not being a top-4 seed.

5 seed is indeed the sweet spot, plus that playoff home game.

 

[PutuporShutup]

Hear me out on this thought…

12 team CFP next year

ND can only go as high as a 5 seed no matter what

Does ND, & possible other teams in the unique situation, play the final week like the NFL does when their playoff seedlings can’t improve?

Let’s say ND is #1 in the AP/Coaches, 11-0.
But can’t go any higher than 5th in CFP.

In the NFL teams rest players & don’t care if they lose the last game if it can’t improve their seeding.

Does ND rest the starters & not care if they lose, because they would drop to 5th anyways, if they were 12-0 or 11-1. Especially if the loss benefitted ND by hurting someone else legit.

Think about it. Your record doesn’t mean anything anymore once the CFP starts. If ND would be #5 no matter what, why risk injury?

Hard part is how do you guarantee they only drop to 5… 5 this year could be playing fsu second round vs 6 playing bama or Georgia second round

Also it would be 3 weeks between NDs last game and first playoff game vs 4 if you rested players… I think 3 off is enough

I get the risking injury part though but there’s the week nd plays its last game and the following week, no way nd could be confident if they lose to still get 5 spot

 

[FWIrish4]

So next year it’s going to be pure chaos, right?

12 team playoff you’re preparing for in 3 weeks after the regular season while the transfer portal is just wide open.

 

[IRISHDODGER]

Hear me out on this thought…

12 team CFP next year

ND can only go as high as a 5 seed no matter what

Does ND, & possible other teams in the unique situation, play the final week like the NFL does when their playoff seedlings can’t improve?

Let’s say ND is #1 in the AP/Coaches, 11-0.
But can’t go any higher than 5th in CFP.

In the NFL teams rest players & don’t care if they lose the last game if it can’t improve their seeding.

Does ND rest the starters & not care if they lose, because they would drop to 5th anyways, if they were 12-0 or 11-1. Especially if the loss benefitted ND by hurting someone else legit.

Think about it. Your record doesn’t mean anything anymore once the CFP starts. If ND would be #5 no matter what, why risk injury?

I hear ya but factor in the committee being insulted by the move and drop ND even lower? Look at how ND players get snubbed in all the awards? There’s no question a bunch of tight ass administrators on the CFP committee would stick it to nD if they did that. Makes good practical sense though.

 

[forkbeard3777]

If Bama beats UGA they should be in IMO. UT schedule was a joke this year. Ideal situation is oregon/washington winner, Michigan, then both Alabama and Georgia because Bama wins the SEC championship and Louisville beats Florida State while UT struggles with OKSt and gets left out. No way Michigan clears that field. If they do, it would be gut wrenching but they would have earned it.

No mulligans for Alabama (see 2011). They got their ass kicked in Tuscaloosa. If Texas beats Oklahoma State, they should get in over Alabama (assuming Alabama wins - and they won't).

That said, I'm rooting for absolute chaos...(Oregon barely wins, Alabama barely wins, Texas rolls, FSU wins like 35-0, Michigan rolls). It was always so stupid to have 4-Playoff slots and 5-Power conferences. Put the committee's ass to the fire.

 

[dad4aa]

Pulling for scUM to roll in the CFP should be an automatic ban

 

[forkbeard3777]

Pulling for scUM to roll in the CFP should be an automatic ban

I meant this weekend’s conference championships. Frankly, we all know Iowa will be lucky to score 3 points. I most likely won’t watch 1 second of that game.

 

[Huntr]

Good WR news!

 

[zelezo vlk]

Sweet! John Brice mentioned a couple weeks back that the staff is very high on his future

 

[IrishLax]

+ KK Smith

So two healthy TEs, five healthy WRs (if Thomas and Salerno can actually go).

 

[pumpdog20]

I was going to go, but I think I'll pass this year.

 

[BleedingGold]

Had this discussion with a Tennessee fan today, if you’re not in the playoffs it’s now a joke to worry about the outcome of a bowl game. It carries no weight on the ability of the team that played the season. We are seeing the end of the bowl system or at least its direct relevance. For those of us that remember the old days it’s a somber final step in a death spiral lasting some 30 years.

 

[Terry Jillery]

I terribly want Hartman to go out a hero. The only way that happens at this point is if we play LSU and he is the reason we win.

 

[RipWheeler]

+ KK Smith

So two healthy TEs, five healthy WRs (if Thomas and Salerno can actually go).

I must have missed it but what about Colzie?

 

[GoldenAura]

 

[NDBoiler]

Where would they go then?