Russia Invades Ukraine

[Irish#1]

 

[calvegas04]

Looks like western tanks will be heading over to Ukraine.

 

[Irish#1]

Looks like western tanks will be heading over to Ukraine.

Germany was having some reservations about it, but it looks like those got resolved with them and the U.S. sending them. I read where NATO is trying to get Zelensky to move from fighting in the Donetsk region to the SE part of the country in the spring, but he's resisting at the moment.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

Germany was having some reservations about it, but it looks like those got resolved with them and the U.S. sending them. I read where NATO is trying to get Zelensky to move from fighting in the Donetsk region to the SE part of the country in the spring, but he's resisting at the moment.

It’s the smart play. They need to move on crimea as currently Russia is focused on protecting the regions in the east. If Ukraine can continue its front in the east and open up one against crimea ….. Russia will be in tough situation.

 

[drayer54]

Looks like a curveball with those loitering drones being destroyed in Iran tonight. Iran may be more worried about protecting the home front after they got attacked tonight.

 

[IRISHDODGER]

Looks like western tanks will be heading over to Ukraine.

As long as our troops aren’t occupying them. Should’ve told Ukraine they can have all the shit we left in Afghanistan at no charge

 

[drayer54]

As long as our troops aren’t occupying them. Should’ve told Ukraine they can have all the shit we left in Afghanistan at no charge

To be fair, a year later, I think we’ve done a better job arming Ukraine on the taxpayers dime than the taliban. I think.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

To be fair, a year later, I think we’ve done a better job arming Ukraine on the taxpayers dime than the taliban. I think.

I’d agree we had no business in Afghanistan except to get Bin Laden. That should have been then extent of it.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

 

[calvegas04]

No issue with Israel bombing Iran

 

[BobbyMac]

I think he meant coming evening.

 

[SeekNDestroy]

Bomb, bomb, bomb..bomb, bomb Iran.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

 

[Rockin’Irish]

That’s some precision right there!

 

[BobbyMac]

Those rounds can be delivered from 50 miles away and are GPS guided with just a 2 meters margin of error. I'm not sure how far the smaller M777 towable howitzer the Ukrainians were given can deliver the round.

Strange fact: Texas Instruments was originally awarded the contract and was bought out by Raytheon.

 

[GATTACA!]

Oh no, anyways.

 

[PerthDomer]

You make a lot of great points however your take on energy is a head scratcher for an apparently well read person. Keystone is not an isolated incident of government energy obstruction - we don't have the infrastructure so many projects are stranded. Takes pipelines to move that stuff, particularly nat gas out of fracking fields. It isn't exactly a secret or controversial.

Consumption being down is much more to do with rising prices and a pandemic as it is EVs that make up a whopping 1% of total cars on the road and generally replace more efficient sedans. Meanwhile diesel stays expensive as it's demand is less elastic. Drops in gasoline and jet fuel screw up the refinery calculus as they need to make tradeoffs to produce higher relative amounts of diesel. Pandemic was an unprecedented shock to the production/refining/distribution system for oil and related products. Refiner margins are at record highs and showing no signs of pulling back as nobody in their right mind would even try to build a new refinery in this regulatory environment.

The world is more stable when dictators and despots aren't flush with excess oil revenue. As you indicate - sanctions on Russian oil and gas are effective. Why not have permanent, market based sanctions like we did for so long when oil was under $50/barrel? Why not devote ourselves to supplying Europe if we are a true ally? It is a matter of national security that has the added benefit of massive economic stimulus.

We would be much better off as a country without obstruction to energy infrastructure development. The NE would have piped rather than shipped NG, use less coal, etc. We also would have way more wind/solar further reducing fossil fuel consumption. The issue with this impacting world oil prices is that unless we massively ramped up production, the Saudis would just reduce their output by a million or so barrels to maintain the price they want. We don't have the ability to ramp up production to that level at a reasonable cost.

Also, the crack spread for oil to refined products was sky high during the spring/summer but has come way down. The next step in sanctions is squeezing Russian refined output, so we seem to think there's slack refinery capacity to absorb more Russian unrefined Crude.

 

[RDU Irish]

We would be much better off as a country without obstruction to energy infrastructure development. The NE would have piped rather than shipped NG, use less coal, etc. We also would have way more wind/solar further reducing fossil fuel consumption. The issue with this impacting world oil prices is that unless we massively ramped up production, the Saudis would just reduce their output by a million or so barrels to maintain the price they want. We don't have the ability to ramp up production to that level at a reasonable cost.

Also, the crack spread for oil to refined products was sky high during the spring/summer but has come way down. The next step in sanctions is squeezing Russian refined output, so we seem to think there's slack refinery capacity to absorb more Russian unrefined Crude.

Increasing nuclear base load percentage is essential to any honest conversation about energy. Windmills and solar panels lack energy density and reliability that will never get the job done. We are already seeing the brown outs at 10% of production - doubling from here is full of problems.

Funny thing though - our untethered energy industry managed to foster world peace and a mass migration of on-shoring. Now our climate overlords have us on the brink of WWIII and thankful for $3.50/gallon gas.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

 

[drayer54]

Increasing nuclear base load percentage is essential to any honest conversation about energy. Windmills and solar panels lack energy density and reliability that will never get the job done. We are already seeing the brown outs at 10% of production - doubling from here is full of problems.

Funny thing though - our untethered energy industry managed to foster world peace and a mass migration of on-shoring. Now our climate overlords have us on the brink of WWIII and thankful for $3.50/gallon gas.

Step 1- Pitch the existential climate crisis and justify all future actions with the climate crisis. Future actions need not be relevant to climate to be claimed as climate.
Step 2- Donate heavily to the political party most likely to panic and experience climate anxiety
Step 3- Use said party to heavily subsidize your wind turbines and solar panels.
Step 4- Utilize said party to crush the competition in the name of the climate crisis.
Step 5- use said party to mandate electrification to drive up demand for your products.
Step 6- When a reliability crisis occurs, inadequate AGC response, inertia needed or otherwise, blame the inadequate amount of wind and solar
Step 7-Build even more to prevent future reliability events
Step 8- $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[GATTACA!]

Step 1- Pitch the existential climate crisis and justify all future actions with the climate crisis. Future actions need not be relevant to climate to be claimed as climate.

It's nice of scientists all over the globe to help carry water for this evil plan.

 

[drayer54]

It's nice of scientists all over the globe to help carry water for this evil plan.

Or grifters to tag a product to climate research as an easy solution to initiate one of the largest wealth transfers of all time

 

[GATTACA!]

Or grifters to tag a product to climate research as an easy solution to initiate one of the largest wealth transfers of all time

Or fossil fuel grifters spreading bullshit conspiracies to try and convince gullible people that there's a worldwide scheme going on.

See how that cuts both ways?

 

[TorontoGold]

Or fossil fuel grifters spreading bullshit conspiracies to try and convince gullible people that there's a worldwide scheme going on.

See how that cuts both ways?

You seem to be on edge, have a nice cigarette to relax. Great for your heart. Or is it because your house is cold and you need some insulation? Try asbestos! Only radicals will tell you these aren't good for you.

 

[drayer54]

I’m just saying it’s a healthy business model. Now go toss out your gas stove and heat some bugs.

 

[GATTACA!]

I’m just saying it’s a healthy business model. Now go toss out your gas stove and heat some bugs.

 

[RDU Irish]

Or grifters to tag a product to climate research as an easy solution to initiate one of the largest wealth transfers of all time

Just look at Europe right now and think for a second about how wise it would have been for Russia to promote climate change zealots in Europe and the US. When your fossil fuel competitors unilaterally disarm.....

Love the snark about science. If scientists were serious about the supposed problem, again, nuclear would be at the top of the list of solutions.

 

[drayer54]

Just look at Europe right now and think for a second about how wise it would have been for Russia to promote climate change zealots in Europe and the US. When your fossil fuel competitors unilaterally disarm.....

Love the snark about science. If scientists were serious about the supposed problem, again, nuclear would be at the top of the list of solutions.

That’s why Europe is shutting down Nukes. Because the energy policy is driven by ideology and not security or reliability. Europe actually uses financial regulation to drive an energy transition too, making it impossible for reason to prevail.

 

[RDU Irish]

Don't forget this push to decarbonize farming too. Sri Lanka learned in one year how important industrial fertilizers are. Europe now making push in this direction too. Nitrogen fertilizers are energy intense to produce - Russia is one of the largest global exporters and has dumped product on US markets for a decade artificially depressing fertilizer prices (Biden admin pushed to not issue sanctions in a proven trade case last year due to ... reasons). Who is going to invest in expanded capacity domestically? Politically powerful farmers love low priced inputs but now cry a river over high fertilizer prices (ignoring the record profits thanks to elevated grain prices).

Ukraine will give Russia Europe's breadbasket to add to their energy dependence. Kind of difficult to play hardball when your populace is cold and hungry.