CFP - 2022

[NDohio]

I think ND wrecked the opportunity for the ACC to have a team in this year's CFP.

What if ND beats USC and then USC beats Oregon in their championship game - that would be two leagues that ND would knock out of the playoffs.

Depending on how the last three weeks of the season go, there could be some really interesting scenarios.

Could this be a year where it's just SEC and Big Ten teams as the final four?

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I think ND wrecked the opportunity for the ACC to have a team in this year's CFP.

What if ND beats USC and then USC beats Oregon in their championship game - that would be two leagues that ND would knock out of the playoffs.

Depending on how the last three weeks of the season go, there could be some really interesting scenarios.

Could this be a year where it's just SEC and Big Ten teams as the final four?

It'll be interesting to see how the committee handles it. a 12-1 TCU will be tough to keep out; if OSU or scUM blows the other out, it might cost the loser of that one a chance to get in. If it's a really close game, and the winner of it goes on to win the B1G as we all suspect since the other division is so laughably weak, then how would a 11-1 scUM, with a close loss to top 2 OSU, stack up against a 12-1 TCU as conference champion? I think TCU gets the nod there, personally.

If Ole MIss loses to Bama this weekend, as I think we all expect them to, the SEC West is eliminated. Then you have to ask yourself the same question: Tennessee at 11-1 vs. 12-1 TCU Big 12 Champ. Tennessee has a better resume than scUM due to their stronger SOS (good on you for scheudle JV squads in Hawaii, CSU, UConn "big Blue").

 

[NDohio]

It'll be interesting to see how the committee handles it. a 12-1 TCU will be tough to keep out; if OSU or scUM blows the other out, it might cost the loser of that one a chance to get in. If it's a really close game, and the winner of it goes on to win the B1G as we all suspect since the other division is so laughably weak, then how would a 11-1 scUM, with a close loss to top 2 OSU, stack up against a 12-1 TCU as conference champion? I think TCU gets the nod there, personally.

If Ole MIss loses to Bama this weekend, as I think we all expect them to, the SEC West is eliminated. Then you have to ask yourself the same question: Tennessee at 11-1 vs. 12-1 TCU Big 12 Champ. Tennessee has a better resume than scUM due to their stronger SOS (good on you for scheudle JV squads in Hawaii, CSU, UConn "big Blue").

Yes, I do think TCU gets in over Michigan in that scenario. However, if it's the opposite, close Michigan win over tOSU, then I think the Buckeyes get in over TCU. Michigan's OOC schedule will hurt them if they lose.

I don't agree. If LSU wins the west and beats Georgia in the CCG then both of them will get in. Sheesh - can you imagine Kelly getting into the CFP in year one at LSU?

 

[Irish du Nord]

I think ND wrecked the opportunity for the ACC to have a team in this year's CFP.

What if ND beats USC and then USC beats Oregon in their championship game - that would be two leagues that ND would knock out of the playoffs.

Depending on how the last three weeks of the season go, there could be some really interesting scenarios.

Could this be a year where it's just SEC and Big Ten teams as the final four?

The Big Ten sucks, if they get multiple teams in I riot.

 

[Dale]

This is the year that if the Pac 12 does have a 1 loss champion, they actually deserve a spot. Now they won’t they’ll cannibalize themselves but if they did.

Oregon has Washington, Utah, @ Oregon St and the P12 Championship (UCLA/USC).

UCLA has USC and the Pac 12 Championship (Oregon).

USC has ND, UCLA and the Pac 12 Championship (Oregon).

Any of the three run the table I think they are in. But they won’t.

 

[stlnd01]

Georgia
Ohio State/Michigan winner.
TCU if undefeated (if not I dunno, they don't really have an elite win)

Then one or two out of:
One-loss Pac-12 champ
Tennessee
Ohio State/Michigan loser (If it's close. Ohio State would have a better chance here than Michigan, IMO.)

Crazy scenario: What if LSU beats Georgia to win the SEC?

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

I don't agree. If LSU wins the west and beats Georgia in the CCG then both of them will get in. Sheesh - can you imagine Kelly getting into the CFP in year one at LSU?

Crazy scenario: What if LSU beats Georgia to win the SEC?

That would be interesting, even if unlikely. I don't see a two loss LSU (with a bad loss to FSU) getting in over a one loss conference champion elsewhere. PAC12, B1G or B12.

UGA would be in at 12-1 even if they lose to LSU.

You simply are going to have OSU or scUM in, whoever wins the B1G.

That leaves two spots for:

Loser of OSU/scUM
TCU (if 12-1, which seems likely)
Oregon/ and whoever is left standing between UCLA and USC, if they still have one loss.

I suppose there's a scenario here with the Pac12 cannibalizes itself, or say USC beats UCLA then loses to ND.
It's fascinating to hypothesize this and there seems to be more parity this year than years past (thank you bama, finally you're on the outside looking in. how's it feel)?

But I think LSU needs a lot more to happen than simply running the table and beating UGA in the CCG, IMO. Your losses matter just as much as your wins (See ND's 20th ranking against Liberty (19), UT (18), NC St (17) and fricken Tulane (16).

 

[stlnd01]

That would be interesting, even if unlikely. I don't see a two loss LSU (with a bad loss to FSU) getting in over a one loss conference champion elsewhere. PAC12, B1G or B12.

UGA would be in at 12-1 even if they lose to LSU.
But I think LSU needs a lot more to happen than simply running the table and beating UGA in the CCG, IMO. Your losses matter just as much as your wins (See ND's 20th ranking against Liberty (19), UT (18), NC St (17) and fricken Tulane (16).

I dunno. I think 11-2 LSU with wins over Bama and Georgia (and Ole Miss) and an SEC title is going to be hard to leave out. Yes there’s the FSU loss, but that was close and early and FSU doesn’t really suck anymore. The bigger loss for LSU may be Tennessee, as it could well come down to them vs LSU for a spot.
Unless… you take both!

 

[NDohio]

Before last Tuesday's rankings, I would have agreed that LSU was out. But the committee put them at 10. This week they will pass both Clemson and Alabama. Ohio State and Michigan are then ahead of LSU. If Michigan loses that game, they're out. Their OOC is terrible (in conference isn't great either). One of USC and Oregon will lose a second game (at least) so in essence LSU is in the top six. If they beat GA in the CCG, I think they're both in.

 

[IHateMarkMay]

Before last Tuesday's rankings, I would have agreed that LSU was out. But the committee put them at 10. This week they will pass both Clemson and Alabama. Ohio State and Michigan are then ahead of LSU. If Michigan loses that game, they're out. Their OOC is terrible (in conference isn't great either). One of USC and Oregon will lose a second game (at least) so in essence LSU is in the top six. If they beat GA in the CCG, I think they're both in.

It's entirely possible they put LSU at 10 so if they beat Bama (which they did), they could have the ability to say it was a "good loss" and drop Bama to... 7-8ish.

 

[Dale]

they will pass both Clemson and Alabama.

I wouldn’t be so sure. Clemson still has only 1 loss and LSU got blown out as badly just a few weeks ago. Committee is also widely inconsistent with reflecting head to head wins. They could easily put Bama ahead of LSU still.

“Road loss came down to the final play”

 

[NDohio]

I wouldn’t be so sure. Clemson still has only 1 loss and LSU got blown out as badly just a few weeks ago. Committee is also widely inconsistent with reflecting head to head wins. They could easily put Bama ahead of LSU still.

“Road loss came down to the final play”

We'll see. Yes LSU was blown out - by the team that the committee had ranked as #1. Clemson was blown out by a team that lost to Stanford...

Also, the committee seems to value big wins. Compare Clemson's wins over Syracuse and NC State with LSU's wins over Ole Miss and Alabama.

 

[Dale]

We'll see. Yes LSU was blown out - by the team that the committee had ranked as #1. Clemson was blown out by a team that lost to Stanford...

Also, the committee seems to value big wins. Compare Clemson's wins over Syracuse and NC State with LSU's wins over Ole Miss and Alabama.

I think you’re giving the committee too much credit. They rank them however they want and then someone else gives them justifications to talk about on TV.

“Clemson lost to a Top 20 team who’s really grown as of late”

You can spin zone any resume

 

[irishff1014]

They have us at #20

 

[KPENN]

 

[Dale]

 

[calvegas04]

ND #20... win out we control our own destiny

 

[CTIDANDREW]

If we win out (bowl game included), we finish the season ranked in the Top 10. Anyone disagree?
Most of us would have sold a kidney for that after the Marshall result.

 

[arndtjc]

If we win out (bowl game included), we finish the season ranked in the Top 10. Anyone disagree?
Most of us would have sold a kidney for that after the Marshall result.

They don’t have enough juice left on the schedule to climb that far

 

[KPENN]

They don’t have enough juice left on the schedule to climb that far

Yea they do. Especially if USC beats UCLA

 

[GATTACA!]

They don’t have enough juice left on the schedule to climb that far

Beat Navy and SC and we should be about 15. I think that's close enough to get there with another week, championship weekend, and then a bowl win.

 

[Irishnuke]

Marshall 1-0

 

[CTIDANDREW]

Yea they do. Especially if USC beats UCLA

Yeah, have to agree.
They likely have two games left vs two potential top 20 (if not top 15) teams when including a bowl game. Seems like plenty of juice.

 

[NDohio]

I think you’re giving the committee too much credit. They rank them however they want and then someone else gives them justifications to talk about on TV.

“Clemson lost to a Top 20 team who’s really grown as of late”

You can spin zone any resume

Welp, I was wrong. LSU didn't climb two spots...they climbed three...

 

[NDohio]

I don't get Penn State at #11. They've beaten no one and the only two real teams they have played blew them out.

Was hoping USC would be a little higher when we play them but that doesn't look likely. Unless they really take it to UCLA.

Looks to ne like the committee is definitely setting this up to have two SEC teams in the tournament. Either LSU beat GA and they both get in or LSU loses in Atlanta and Tennessee takes the spot of the loser of OSU and Michigan.

Is TCU for real or will their dream come crashing down. They aren't huge favorites this weekend against Baylor and they have a CCG. If they lose what does that do? Two SEC and two Big Ten?

Crazy scenario - TCU loses. OSU/Mich is super close. LSU beats GA. Tennessee wins out. ND beats USC. Who is in the final four...

1	Georgia	10-0	1
2	Ohio State	10-0	2
3	Michigan	10-0	3
4	TCU	10-0	4
5	Tennessee	9-1	5
6	LSU	8-2	7
7	Southern California	9-1	8
8	Alabama	8-2	9
9	Clemson	9-1	10
10	Utah	8-2	13
11	Penn State	8-2	14

 

[Dale]

If a healthy KSU plays Will Howard vs TCU in the B12 Championship Kansas St will win. They would have won the first matchup if they didn’t have Martinez then Howard, their starting LB, starting CB and starting S all leave with injuries

 

[Irish du Nord]

If a healthy KSU plays Will Howard vs TCU in the B12 Championship Kansas St will win. They would have won the first matchup if they didn’t have Martinez then Howard, their starting LB, starting CB and starting S all leave with injuries

Everyone has been picking TCU losses for a while now, I’ll believe it when I see it

 

[Dale]

Everyone has been picking TCU losses for a while now, I’ll believe it when I see it

Gotta assume they won’t play every other game against a backup QB at some point. I think they’re good. I just think KSU is really good too behind Howard.

 

[Old Man Mike]

My dumb prediction: Georgia vs TCU, and OSU vs Tennessee. If no TCU, then, I think, USC. If ND somehow beats USC, then MI.
I have a hard time seeing anyone else assuming GA beats LSU, and OSU beats MI by two scores. Even a win-out Clemson seems to have no credibility given our asskicking them. (plus us asskicking UNC, their only other semi-credible win possibility.)

 

[GATTACA!]

My dumb prediction: Georgia vs TCU, and OSU vs Tennessee. If no TCU, then, I think, USC. If ND somehow beats USC, then MI.
I have a hard time seeing anyone else assuming GA beats LSU, and OSU beats MI by two scores. Even a win-out Clemson seems to have no credibility given our asskicking them. (plus us asskicking UNC, their only other semi-credible win possibility.)

I think Clemson with an ACC title gets in over Michigan who won’t even have made the B1G championship game. Michigans schedule is truly pathetic this year.