I think that odds are in favor of it being a Republican blowout given late movement across virtually all reputable polls.
Roe v Wade is an existential motivator but mostly for people who already voted blue. A lot of anti-Trump suburban Republicans are more than happy to come back into the fold to vote against "woke." Some of the conversations I have with parents of prospects I recruit to the Catholic school I coach at are very revealing... public education is fucked and a lot of people still hold a grudge over COVID school closures, etc.
The schools issue is definitely a thing. For most of 2020 and part of 2021 we spent in a different school district with no in person learning. The remote classes were a joke unfortunately. My daughter was already in the top percentile in her class so she survived fine, but my youngest was starting Kindergarten after we decided to hold him back till he was 6. He was getting about 1 1/2 hours of a Zoom meeting each day where they spent half of this time doing "brain breaks" like playing videos and "the floor is lava." Once we got off work we had to try and cram almost a full days worth of activity sheets between dinner and bed. There just wasn't enough time for two working parents. When my daughter was in Kindergarten she had free reading she had to do after school, but there was no time for that with my son.
We got out of there at the beginning of April 2021 and moved to a district that had in person learning. My son was behind those other kids for 1st grade and he's just now starting to catch up in 2nd grade. He went from failing last year to B's and C's so far this year. We're still working with him to catch him up, but it's been a huge commitment for all of us. I'm hoping he can eventually get to a good place like his sister...
otherwise I'll have to settle for him playing OT at tOSU and not ND.
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