2016 Presidential Horse Race

2016 Presidential Horse Race


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EddytoNow

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I doubt he wrote and delivered his speech thinking that he would probably sabotage his career. He's too calculated, too self interested and believes in his ideas too much to knowingly throw away his entire career. I think he understood the risk but believed it was worth the reward - being the only major candidate who didn't back Trump in 2016.

At the moment, it appears he miscalculated the risk, and I doubt he'll ever recover (could be wrong).

I think Ted Cruz was in a lose-lose situation. If he endorsed Trump he loses all credibility as a man of principle and becomes associated with Trump's rhetoric, racist policies, etc. And if Trump fails in his bid for the presidency or has a failed presidency, Cruz would go down with the ship along with everyone else who supported Trump. And considering the gridlock in Congress, the next president is doomed to a failed presidency, because both parties will do whatever they can to undermine whoever wins the 2016 election. The Republicans set a precedent for undermining a sitting president of the opposite party, and the Democrats will be only too happy to return the favor.

If Cruz doesn't endorse Trump, he maintains his dignity but alienates a large part of the Republican party. His best bet in 2020 would be to run as an independent candidate. He is too disliked in his own party to ever win its nomination. His speech last night was the beginning of his 2020 campaign.

I'm a Progressive and would never consider voting for Cruz due to our differences on social policy, but I respect Cruz's commitment to his beliefs. He can hold his head high, and his children will be able to look back with pride on their father's principled stance. The same can't be said of Rubio, Christie, Carson, and many of the others.
 

GoIrish41

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I doubt he wrote and delivered his speech thinking that he would probably sabotage his career. He's too calculated, too self interested and believes in his ideas too much to knowingly throw away his entire career. I think he understood the risk but believed it was worth the reward - being the only major candidate who didn't back Trump in 2016.

At the moment, it appears he miscalculated the risk, and I doubt he'll ever recover (could be wrong).

Agree with all of this. The wound is fresh right now but it will heal quickly -- particularly if Trump gets curb stomped in November. He'll play it like he was the guy with judgement and foresight who was looking at the big picture of saving the party from itself.

I personally think Cruz might be worse than Trump, but he gave the best speech of the convention to date. Not surprised that he got booed off the stage, but he's taking the long view and making a political calculation. Pretty good move for him IMO. The GOP is unlikely to win and he'll be among those who was smart enough to read the tea leaves.
 
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IrishLax

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I doubt he wrote and delivered his speech thinking that he would probably sabotage his career. He's too calculated, too self interested and believes in his ideas too much to knowingly throw away his entire career. I think he understood the risk but believed it was worth the reward - being the only major candidate who didn't back Trump in 2016.

At the moment, it appears he miscalculated the risk, and I doubt he'll ever recover (could be wrong).

Kasich telling Trump to go eff himself with his VP nom AND boycotting the convention seems to be doing similar.

I honestly think the Republican strategy is to cut their losses and accept that they aren't going to win this fall, and then reform the party. The problem is as long as Cruz is a party leader, it's impossible to do just that.
 

irishfan

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Kasich telling Trump to go eff himself with his VP nom AND boycotting the convention seems to be doing similar.

I honestly think the Republican strategy is to cut their losses and accept that they aren't going to win this fall, and then reform the party. The problem is as long as Cruz is a party leader, it's impossible to do just that.

They need to try harder cause 538 is giving Trump about a 40% chance.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
 

wizards8507

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If Cruz doesn't endorse Trump, he maintains his dignity but alienates a large part of the Republican party. His best bet in 2020 would be to run as an independent candidate. He is too disliked in his own party to ever win its nomination. His speech last night was the beginning of his 2020 campaign.
That all depends on how this election plays out. The party is basically split into three factions right now. There are the populists, the conservatives, and the establishment. The establishment and the populists both hate Cruz, but he's a hero among the conservatives (with some exceptions). If Trump fails miserably as a candidate or as a president, the populists will cease to be a force in the party because they're too disorganized to have any success without a Trump-sized personality to rally around. That'll leave a battle between the conservatives and the establishment in the 2020 primary, with the populists casting the tiebreaker votes. I think the populists only hate Cruz because he opposed Trump, but if given the choice between Cruz and an establishment candidate, I think they'll go with Cruz.

I'm a Progressive and would never consider voting for Cruz due to our differences on social policy, but I respect Cruz's commitment to his beliefs. He can hold his head high, and his children will be able to look back with pride on their father's principled stance. The same can't be said of Rubio, Christie, Carson, and many of the others.
Did you watch the whole speech? Cruz had a refreshing take on Constitutional federalism that's a big change from the Republican Party that wanted a Constitutional ban on gay marriage. Cruz basically said that states can marry whomever they want and Colorado can sell all of the drugs they want and that neither of these things are federal issues. Although he opposes them personally, he's a Constitutionalist first and foremost and I don't think he'd try to pass a nationalized conservative agenda as POTUS.

Kasich telling Trump to go eff himself with his VP nom AND boycotting the convention seems to be doing similar.

I honestly think the Republican strategy is to cut their losses and accept that they aren't going to win this fall, and then reform the party. The problem is as long as Cruz is a party leader, it's impossible to do just that.
What? Cruz' Constitutionalism is exactly what the party should be reforming itself into. Somehow Cruz got associated with this Rick Santorum religious right strawman but his politics don't bear that out.
 

RDU Irish

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HAHAHA!!

Remember that pledge all those "principled" candidates were pushing on Trump to support the nominee? Cruz was pounding the table as hard as anyone for that. As far as I remember THEY ALL MADE THAT PLEDGE. Well Kasich and Cruz are not honoring it. Get up and give a weak "better than Hillary" endorsement but man up and make the endorsement. Sour grapes sore losers.

Politics is a contact sport and they all forgot. Someone brought the thunder and they are whining that they played too rough. Well, maybe that is what a bunch of folks want brought on Hillary - throw the gloves off and give that wench her due.

Cruz's speech put me to sleep - can't stand his style even though the content I find fantastic as Wiz points out. I find the guy so untrustworthy and unlikable that content be damned. Then again - how do you get anything or build a team if nobody likes you? I don't see how his personality ever helps him get results - quite the opposite.

Contrast to Pence - knew nothing of the guy but he had a much more rousing and equally "conservative" speech - might he be in position to steal Cruz's mantle?
 

Wild Bill

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Agree with all of this. The wound is fresh right now but it will heal quickly -- particularly if Trump gets curb stomped in November. He'll play it like he was the guy with judgement and foresight who was looking at the big picture of saving the party from itself.

I personally think Cruz might be worse than Trump, but he gave the best speech of the convention to date. Not surprised that he got booed off the stage, but he's taking the long view and making a political calculation. Pretty good move for him IMO. The GOP is unlikely to win and he'll be among those who was smart enough to read the tea leaves.

Cruz was well received by the crowd until it became clear he wasn't going to give Trump an endorsement. The substance of his speech was not the issue. The issue was his perceived lack of principle and character.

Kasich telling Trump to go eff himself with his VP nom AND boycotting the convention seems to be doing similar.

Similar but not equal. Cruz sent a much stronger message hoping it may help him in the future. I think it's clear he wanted to be the voice of reason rather than a silent dissenter in the next election. I just don't think it's going to work.

Did you watch the whole speech? Cruz had a refreshing take on Constitutional federalism that's a big change from the Republican Party that wanted a Constitutional ban on gay marriage. Cruz basically said that states can marry whomever they want and Colorado can sell all of the drugs they want and that neither of these things are federal issues. Although he opposes them personally, he's a Constitutionalist first and foremost and I don't think he'd try to pass a nationalized conservative agenda as POTUS.

Cruz always has a refreshing take on the Constitution. That's never been an issue for him. His issue is that he struggles to connect with voters.

Last night was a microcosm of the primary between Trump and Cruz. Trump knew in advance what Cruz would say and didn't care. He just handed Ted the rope and let him hang himself.
 

NorthDakota

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I'm a Progressive and would never consider voting for Cruz due to our differences on social policy, but I respect Cruz's commitment to his beliefs. He can hold his head high, and his children will be able to look back with pride on their father's principled stance. The same can't be said of Rubio, Christie, Carson, and many of the others.


So you are a infanticide loving Federal Power guy? Because Ted seems to have a pretty awesome social policy. States decide on drugs and marriage, save the babies.
 

wizards8507

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HAHAHA!!

Remember that pledge all those "principled" candidates were pushing on Trump to support the nominee? Cruz was pounding the table as hard as anyone for that. As far as I remember THEY ALL MADE THAT PLEDGE. Well Kasich and Cruz are not honoring it. Get up and give a weak "better than Hillary" endorsement but man up and make the endorsement. Sour grapes sore losers.
Are you kidding me? Look at Trump's behavior after Cruz made the so-called "pledge." Trump went after his wife, planted dirty articles about Cruz in the tabloids, and alleged that Raphael Cruz was involved in the JFK assassination. All pledges are off at that point.

Wiz: RDU Irish, will you promise to be my best friend forever?
RDU: Sure, I promise.
Wiz: Your wife is a dirty skank whore and your mom is a cannibal.
RDU: We're not friends anymore.
Wiz: You traitor! You promised we'd be best friends forever!

You don't see how that's insane?
 

RDU Irish

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So I thought there might be more talk of Pence here - I agree with NorthDakota - thought he hit it out of the park last night (although I admit I had low expectations). Good stage presence and enough resume to fill the ticket nicely.
 

wizards8507

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Cruz's speech put me to sleep - can't stand his style even though the content I find fantastic as Wiz points out. I find the guy so untrustworthy and unlikable that content be damned. Then again - how do you get anything or build a team if nobody likes you? I don't see how his personality ever helps him get results - quite the opposite.
That's why I always felt Rubio would have been better at the top of the ticket. Rubio-Cruz would have been so good.
 

RDU Irish

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Are you kidding me? Look at Trump's behavior after Cruz made the so-called "pledge." Trump went after his wife, planted dirty articles about Cruz in the tabloids, and alleged that Raphael Cruz was involved in the JFK assassination. All pledges are off at that point.

Wiz: RDU Irish, will you promise to be my best friend forever?
RDU: Sure, I promise.
Wiz: Your wife is a dirty skank whore and your mom is a cannibal.
RDU: We're not friends anymore.
Wiz: You traitor! You promised we'd be best friends forever!

You don't see how that's insane?

Your analogy is horribly flawed. The better analogy is Fight Club.

Losing a fight because you didn't think someone fought fair is called being a pussy in my book. If it is a fight with such high stakes you will do whatever it takes to win - and be man enough to do it yourself. Politicians have surrogates do all the dirty work and act all incredulous at the stuff they are damn well directing. Give Trump credit for taking it on himself rather than running a bunch of ads from some PAC making the same claims.

Part of why people supported Trump is being anxious to see him take Hillary on - no holds barred, directly to her face. Cruz would talk around the topic and hide his barbs in some great oratory exchange that would put 99% of people to sleep. Trump could directly ask Hillary about the Lolita Express on a debate stage - or at least the threat of that is real enough to make her shart a little at the thought.

Trump seems to be showing these guys that bury the hatchet some respect. If your ego is that fragile then maybe you are not fit for the job.
 

RDU Irish

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They all calculated wrong - they gave Trump zero chance of winning the nomination and wanted to hedge the third party risk. Played safe instead of playing to win. I think they had enough data to know Trump was going to lay waste to traditional decorum and ramp political mud slinging to a new high.

Don't hate the player - hate the game.
 

Polish Leppy 22

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Trump needs to distance himself from Baldasaro and any talk of imprisoning or executing Clinton. That's the kind of stuff that goes on in third world countries dominated by brutal dictators, not in the world's greatest democracy.

I thought the same when Bill Clinton "bumped into" AG Lynch at an airport a few days before the FBI investigation results were released.
 

wizards8507

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Your analogy is horribly flawed. The better analogy is Fight Club.

Losing a fight because you didn't think someone fought fair is called being a pussy in my book. If it is a fight with such high stakes you will do whatever it takes to win - and be man enough to do it yourself. Politicians have surrogates do all the dirty work and act all incredulous at the stuff they are damn well directing. Give Trump credit for taking it on himself rather than running a bunch of ads from some PAC making the same claims.

Part of why people supported Trump is being anxious to see him take Hillary on - no holds barred, directly to her face. Cruz would talk around the topic and hide his barbs in some great oratory exchange that would put 99% of people to sleep. Trump could directly ask Hillary about the Lolita Express on a debate stage - or at least the threat of that is real enough to make her shart a little at the thought.

Trump seems to be showing these guys that bury the hatchet some respect. If your ego is that fragile then maybe you are not fit for the job.
I'm not buying it. Rubio tried that game and got slaughtered for it. I expect better from our leaders and don't accept "yeah, but it's a tough job" as a valid reason for being a shitstain of a human being.
 

EddytoNow

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So you are a infanticide loving Federal Power guy? Because Ted seems to have a pretty awesome social policy. States decide on drugs and marriage, save the babies.

Not at all. I personally would never choose to have an abortion, but as a man I am never put into a position to make that decision. It is not my place to tell a woman what her choice should be. There are too many factors that must be considered on a personal level (i.e., rape, incest, threat to mother's life, economic resources, etc.) I favor a woman's right to make that decision without government interference. And where are the Republicans when the woman chooses to have the baby? They are opposing any kind of social support that would make it possible for that baby to grow up healthy, well-educated, and able to take advantage of the same opportunities as other citizens.

I also favor social security, medicare, universal education, universal access to healthcare, and the rest of the social safety network, all programs that Cruz proposes to cut or eliminate. And talk about big government, I know at least one prominent Republican governor that was pretty happy to see the federal government running to his aid after Hurricane Sandy.

And your suggestion that the right to marry whom you choose is a state issue is only an attempt to deny a constitutionally guaranteed right (according the the SCOTUS) to gay citizens. In other words, you want to stack the Supreme Court so you can get decisions that you favor. And when that doesn't work out you will try to by-pass the SCOTUS decision by opting for a different law for each state of the union. Whatever happened to the Republicans who supported the law of the land? They've been replaced by Republicans who only plan to obey the law if it agrees with their personal interpretation.
 

wizards8507

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Not at all. I personally would never choose to have an abortion, but as a man I am never put into a position to make that decision. It is not my place to tell a woman what her choice should be. There are too many factors that must be considered on a personal level (i.e., rape, incest, threat to mother's life, economic resources, etc.) I favor a woman's right to make that decision without government interference.
Do you think a woman has the right to seek out and murder her rapist? If anyone deserves to die it's the rapist, right? But I assume you think the courts should handle that kind of thing and that vigilante justice is illegitimate? Why, then, is it okay to commit a horrible atrocity just because a different horrible atrocity happened before that one? Being a rape victim or being poor are not legitimate defenses to murder, especially the murder of an innocent third party.

I don't know if you have children or not, but there's nothing more disgusting to me than someone who can feel the love a parent has for their child and not be absolutely sickened by abortion.

And where are the Republicans when the woman chooses to have the baby? They are opposing any kind of social support that would make it possible for that baby to grow up healthy, well-educated, and able to take advantage of the same opportunities as other citizens.
Have you honestly never heard of a crisis pregnancy center? They're all over the place, get very little (if any) government funding, and are run almost exclusively by Christian conservatives.

I also favor social security, medicare, universal education, universal access to healthcare, and the rest of the social safety network, all programs that Cruz proposes to cut or eliminate.
What about the government gives you any confidence that it can administer these programs effectively, efficiently, or honestly? Every single one of them would be better if people made decisions for themselves as opposed to politicians making decisions for everybody. Government-run anything is a race to mediocrity.

And talk about big government, I know at least one prominent Republican governor that was pretty happy to see the federal government running to his aid after Hurricane Sandy.
Nobody anywhere is suggesting that disaster relieve is an illegitimate function of government.

And your suggestion that the right to marry whom you choose is a state issue is only an attempt to deny a constitutionally guaranteed right (according the the SCOTUS) to gay citizens. In other words, you want to stack the Supreme Court so you can get decisions that you favor. And when that doesn't work out you will try to by-pass the SCOTUS decision by opting for a different law for each state of the union. Whatever happened to the Republicans who supported the law of the land? They've been replaced by Republicans who only plan to obey the law if it agrees with their personal interpretation.
Gay marriage is a behavior, not a trait. Being black, equal protection applies. Being female, equal protection applies. Marrying a man? Equal protection does not apply.
 

Legacy

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The gap between Trumpublicans and Conservatives became a chasm. Whether Cruz's motivation was personal or ideological, where is Mike Pence?

Lion Ted (National Review)
 

ND NYC

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What do you think is the appropriate level of outrage for it? Burn Melania at the stake? Imprison her in a gulag for 30 years? Fine her $10B?

if her husband becomes President, those could all be on the table.
Torture too!
 

BleedBlueGold

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So I thought there might be more talk of Pence here - I agree with NorthDakota - thought he hit it out of the park last night (although I admit I had low expectations). Good stage presence and enough resume to fill the ticket nicely.

Pence is one of the worst governors in IN history. The Rs around him here in Indy don't even like him. He may come off as a true conservative to people who don't really know him, but he has lead the fight against public education, LGBT rights, and women's rights to such an extreme manner that he's turned off his R partners in the capital. His approval ratings in a red state isn't great. To top it off, he's a Koch Bros golden boy (along with Scott Walker). Sigh....
 

Irish#1

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I think an apology from his campaign for stealing her speech, for the same event where they attack her husband relentlessly in, would be the least they could do. Maybe some of his rabid followers (including the people on here that acted like it was coincidence) could simply acknowledge their dishonesty.

I think the speech writer already apologized and offered to resign. As far as asking others to apologize, good luck, those supporters are unlikely to move. It was painted as a coincidence, nobody without firsthand knowledge would know otherwise. Frankly, reading the passage that was stolen, the whole plagiarism thing seems silly tbh. It's just a bunch of political speech, the kind politicians typically echo to galvanize their followers. Politicians talk all the time about being raised to work hard, keep your word, and treat people with respect. If the writer reversed two of those three items, nobody bats an eye. It easily could have been a coincidence given the circumstances and message.

Did Obama apologize for any of his plagiarizations(that's actually a word, according to Mr. Webster)?

I do think it probably went down just like they said it did. Melania gave the speechwriter some phrasing that she wanted to use, figuring that the speechwriter would change it up enough to not be plagiarism, and the speechwriter got in a hurry(or just got lazy) and didn't do the proper due diligence. But the why and how don't really matter. It ended up being plagiarism. I certainly don't think an apology is unreasonable to ask of them.

What size font should I use for my ha ha ha ha ha ... post?

Maybe we should wipe the slate clean, like with a cloth

The first thing Melania said when questioned about her speech was that she wrote it herself. If she did write it herself, then she is to blame for the obvious plagiarism. If she didn't write it then she lied when she said she did. If she had someone else write the speech for her, then why did she say that she wrote it.

The low-level Trump aide that is now taking the blame is more than likely falling on the sword and taking one for the team. No one will remember her name in a couple of weeks. However, I sincerely doubt a speech of that importance would have been the product of one low-level staff member. Either Trump has surrounded himself with an incompetent team or the truth is being covered up to protect Melania or someone else higher up the food chain.

If your main argument against Hillary is that she is dishonest, it can't help when the truthfulness of the Trump campaign is tarnished in this way. Someone's lying inside the Trump campaign.


Not sure what the big deal is. It was a "potential first lady" giving the same "potential first lady" speech right out of the "potential first lady" manual. I'm not wasting my time, but I bet you can find similarities in a lot of the "potential first lady" speeches given over the years.
 

RDU Irish

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I'm not buying it. Rubio tried that game and got slaughtered for it. I expect better from our leaders and don't accept "yeah, but it's a tough job" as a valid reason for being a shitstain of a human being.

You hurt my feelings, I'm gonna take my ball and go home. Sack up and play ball sissies. OR look to the sideline for the ref and whine that you were slighted and someone should apologize or else you might cry about it some more. They were beaten at their own game and aren't man enough to admit it. If they want the game to be something else they are going to be greatly disappointed for a very long time. Apparently there are a bunch of folks out there that want to see politicians punched in the mouth and dropped down a few pegs - the fact that is lost on these folks is embarrassingly obvious.

Rubio was playing the wrong game from the start - should have been positioning as a top VP pick instead of trying to parlay his Obama like resume into the top position. He could have teamed with any of those guys pretty early in the process and changed the course but was too selfish and delusional to see he is just as empty of a suit as Obama was - just with a different philosophy. At least he ate his shit sandwich and sent in a 30 second video that can hardly be hung on his neck as some kind of ringing endorsement.
 

Bishop2b5

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Trump could directly ask Hillary about the Lolita Express on a debate stage

Just the thought of it gives me a "shiver up my leg!" I can't wait to hear him just hammer her on national TV with pointed questions (that the MSM certainly won't ask her) about her lack of character & ethics, then watch her lie and claim she's Mother Theresa being hounded by a "vast right-wing conspiracy" while the whole nation watches. I could live with four years of Hillary's policies. I can't live with four years of her complete lack of character, integrity, honesty and ethics.
 

Legacy

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Ted Cruz Burns it Down (National Review)

“What does it say when you stand up and say, ‘vote your conscience,’ and rabid supporters of our nominee begin screaming, ‘what a horrible thing to say!’ If we can’t make the case to the American people that voting for our party’s nominee is consistent with voting your conscience, is consistent with defending freedom and being faithful to the constitution, then we are not going to win, and we don’t deserve to win,” Cruz said.
 
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