2016 Presidential Horse Race

2016 Presidential Horse Race


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phgreek

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Oh, I see. Yeah, that is a really interesting point by Millman and definitely a fair reading of her comments.

Personally, I don't agree with his reading though, and I don't think she made her comments about Trump for any sort of strategic purpose. The "she is getting old and forgot herself" explanation is probably closer to the truth, but there's something else going on there.

Jeffrey Toobin has written and spoken about how RBG is a naturally shy and retiring person whose husband Marty Ginsburg (a great tax/bankruptcy lawyer in his own right) was the funny, outgoing one in their relationship. When he died in 2010, she dealt with his death, in part, by becoming more like him. She started to speak out more and be more outgoing. That more outspoken attitude is what has earned her this "Notorious RBG" persona people are hanging on her in recent years. These Trump comments are growing out of that. She even mentioned her husband in her comments to the papers about Trump.

Again, her comments are TOTALLY inappropriate and out of keeping with judicial ethics. I just think the reaction is a little overblown at this point because she hasn't objected to Trump's policies; she has just objected to him personally. That seems less likely, as a practical matter, to affect her judicial decision-making.

I guess I'm a little raw over pants suit lucifer skating on the email debacle, and the machinations the justice department went through to let her off. But I gotta ask...when is an ethical or rules based transgression really just that, on its face. And when do rules apply?
 

Emcee77

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I guess I'm a little raw over pants suit lucifer skating on the email debacle, and the machinations the justice department went through to let her off. But I gotta ask...when is an ethical or rules based transgression really just that, on its face. And when do rules apply?

Never, to Supreme Court justices. They aren't bound by the ethics rules, although I think everyone agrees they should follow them.

I think I get your point, though. This situation with RBG and the ethics rules is somewhat similar to the issue about how another person in Hillary's situation would lose her security clearance for similar email indiscretions, but if Hillary is elected president, she becomes "above the law" in that limited respect, as no one can take the president's security clearance away. It does seem unfair.

But in RBG's case, even a lower-court judge would not suffer consequences much worse than being formally admonished, as Guido Calabresi was for equating Bush with Mussolini. It's just not really that serious, imo.
 
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EddytoNow

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She explicitly violated the Federal Code of Ethics for Lawyers and Judges. She is not permitted to publicly support or disparage any political candidate.

If Alito came out and makes negative comments about Hillary I'm sure you would been silent on this matter.

Alito or Thomas making those comments wouldn't surprise me. If you had read my whole post, my point was that the Supreme Court is very partisan. It has been for a long time. Ginsburg's comments on Trump only show us what we already know about both sides. The Conservatives are concerned that Liberal partisans will soon outnumber Conservative partisans on the Supreme Court. Right now, one or two Supreme Court justices decide every issue. The rest are locked into one partisan side or the other and you and I can predict with near 100% accuracy where they stand before they even take a vote. Before Scalia's death all we had to know is which way Kennedy was going to vote to predict the outcome. Lately, Roberts has shown a willingness to swing his vote back and forth, indicating (at least to me) that he is becoming less partisan as time goes on. If you want Supreme Court justices to stay out of politics, then politics will have to stay out of the Supreme Court. Trump has made the appointment of partisan justices a key part of his campaign. He has openly stated that he will appoint only Conservative justices. I have no doubt that Hillary will do the same, but to her credit she is not out there repeating at every campaign stop that she will only appoint Liberals to the Supreme Court.
 
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gkIrish

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Alito or Thomas making those comments wouldn't surprise me. If you had read my whole post, my point was that the Supreme Court is very partisan. It has been for a long time. Ginsburg's comments on Trump only show us what we already know about both sides. The Conservatives are concerned that Liberal partisans will soon outnumber Conservative partisans on the Supreme Court. Right now, one or two Supreme Court justices decide every issue. The rest are locked into one partisan side or the other and you and I can predict with near 100% accuracy where they stand before they even take a vote. Before Scalia's death all we had to know is which way Kennedy was going to vote to predict the outcome. Lately, Roberts has shown a willingness to swing his vote back and forth, indicating (at least to me) that he is becoming less partisan as time goes on. If you want Supreme Court justices to stay out of politics, then politics will have to stay out of the Supreme Court. Trump has made the appointment of partisan justices a key part of his campaign. He has openly stated that he will appoint only Conservative justices. I have no doubt that Hillary will do the same, but to her credit she is not out there repeating at every campaign stop that she will only appoint Liberals to the Supreme Court.

I understand the makeup of the Supreme Court and their underlying partisan beliefs.

A) It shouldn't be like that.
B) She still can't make the comments she did. No Justice has ever done so.
 

EddytoNow

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I understand the makeup of the Supreme Court and their underlying partisan beliefs.

A) It shouldn't be like that.
B) She still can't make the comments she did. No Justice has ever done so.

A) You're right. It shouldn't be like that. I'm right. It is like that.
B) I agree, she should have taken the high road and not made the comments. And we've never had a candidate like Trump, who openly insults women, makes openly racist remarks, ridicules members of the Supreme Court, demeans members of his own party, disrespects P.O.W.'s, etc.
 

RDU Irish

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A) You're right. It shouldn't be like that. I'm right. It is like that.
B) I agree, she should have taken the high road and not made the comments. And we've never had a candidate like Trump, who openly insults women, makes openly racist remarks, ridicules members of the Supreme Court, demeans members of his own party, disrespects P.O.W.'s, etc.

Remember that time Obama berated the conservatives on the Supreme Court in the State of the Union address and they sat there and they lashed back publicly? Yeah that second part didn't happen.
 

GATTACA!

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Quinnipiac Poll July 13: PA Trump 43 Clinton 41, OH Trump 41 Clinton 41, FL Trump 42 Clinton 39

Gets even worse for Clinton once 3rd party candidates are included

Florida - Trump leads Clinton 41 - 36 percent, with 7 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 4 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein

Ohio - Trump at 37 percent to Clinton's 36 percent, with Johnson at 7 percent and Stein at 6 percent

Pennsylvania - Trump over Clinton 40 - 34 percent with 9 percent for Johnson and 3 percent for Stein

Considering the fact that Clinton's campaign has outspent Trump's 57 million to 4 in general election attack ads these results are quite interesting. I think at a bare minimum this election is going to be way more competitive than many experts have been prognosticating.
 

RDU Irish

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That's Christie but not Newt. If Newt is VP, he's running the show and Trump is just a figurehead. I think Trump knows that and is actually happy with it. He doesn't seem to have any interest in actually governing and I think he'd be more than happy to outsource all POTUS duties to his number two.

Gingrich makes, by far, the most sense. He's the ultimate insider and his success comes from bipartisan governance with Bill Clinton of all people. He'd be extremely effective both in the campaign and on Capitol Hill.


So are Trump and Billary. The "family values" people are going to vote for Trump out of fear of Clinton's SCOTUS nominees. The personal character of the candidates won't matter.


Which is exactly what Trump lacks.

This would actually get me supporting Trump instead of holding my nose and voting against Hillary. He is a known commodity amongst older voters - and highly respected for his intellect and policy expertise. You can dislike the guy or his politics but you have to respect his ability.

Pence adds no value, IMO. Too much of a unknown and would be viewed as a doormat, regardless of his actual ability.

Christie needs to be AG - too strong of a personality to be side by side with Trump. What is the upside of adding a "tough guy" to the ticket when Trump is supposed to be the "toughest guy" anyway? Maybe they are delirious and think they could swing NY and NJ to the red ledger and change the tone of the campaign but that is pixie dust snorting fantasy if you ask me.
 

RDU Irish

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And Ginsberg needs to step down - immediately. To make one off handed remark I would give benefit of the doubt but her repeated bashing of a presidential candidate is beyond inappropriate. See you next Tuesday, Ruthie.
 

dshans

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And Ginsberg needs to step down - immediately. To make one off handed remark I would give benefit of the doubt but her repeated bashing of a presidential candidate is beyond inappropriate. See you next Tuesday, Ruthie.

Well, not totally attuned to the specific comment and subsequent commentary, I lean toward WTF and WTFC.

Thomas should step down. His muteness/dumbness/bullshitness "speaks": "for itself.

Garbage In, Garbage out is Garbage just the same
 
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EddytoNow

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Is "Little Donald," "Crooked Donald," "Lyin' Donald," all upset because someone called him a name? I can't believe anyone would resort to name calling in a presidential campaign? How did that all get started?
 

irish1958

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Is "Little Donald," "Crooked Donald," "Lyin' Donald," all upset because someone called him a name? I can't believe anyone would resort to name calling in a presidential campaign? How did that all get started?
Adams-Jefferson-Barr a few years ago.
 

connor_in

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trump has banished members of the press who have criticized him.<br><br>Is there any doubt he would do the same as president?</p>— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) <a href="https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/753276435968757760">July 13, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
 

RDU Irish

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Mezvinsky

Quality Father-in-law for Chelsea. Probably a coincidence that his scam was not prosecuted until 2001.

Kind of interesting that my father brought this up in conversation - remembering the guy from representing our district in Iowa in the 70s - but also knowing all about his criminal hijinks.
 

irishfan

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trump has banished members of the press who have criticized him.<br><br>Is there any doubt he would do the same as president?</p>— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) <a href="https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/753276435968757760">July 13, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA

Her social media team is not concerned about her being called a hypocrite. The "delete your account" tweet was asking to get mocked for her emails. She tweeted about no individuals being too big to jail a while ago. Now this. It's pretty great.
 

connor_in

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Wow, seriously....did Trump get a guy on HRC's social media team?


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Imagine if Trump had not just Twitter to go after critics and opponents, but also the IRS—or our military. Do you think he’d be restrained?</p>— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) <a href="https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/753276953780744193">July 13, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
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EddytoNow

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Mezvinsky

Quality Father-in-law for Chelsea. Probably a coincidence that his scam was not prosecuted until 2001.

Kind of interesting that my father brought this up in conversation - remembering the guy from representing our district in Iowa in the 70s - but also knowing all about his criminal hijinks.

If we're looking at father-in-law scandals, perhaps we should take at look at the father-in-law of Trump's daughter. It's interesting that Chris Christie was the prosecutor of the father-in-law involved in that scandal.
 

GATTACA!

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Wow, seriously....did Trump get a guy on HRC's social media team?


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Imagine if Trump had not just Twitter to go after critics and opponents, but also the IRS—or our military. Do you think he’d be restrained?</p>— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) <a href="https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/753276953780744193">July 13, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

There have been theories for a while now that someone on HRC social media team is secretly a Trump supporter with the amount of times she's put her foot in her mouth.
 

Rack Em

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Well, not totally attuned to the specific comment and subsequent commentary, I lean toward WTF and WTFC.

Thomas should step down. His muteness/dumbness/bullshitness "speaks": "for itself.

Garbage In, Garbage out is Garbage just the same

Because he doesn't ask questions during oral arguments he's mute/dumb/full of bullshit?

All of the justices (except for maybe Kennedy because nobody knows what's going on inside is brain ever) have their minds made up after a cursory reading of the case law presented to them by their clerks. A lot of the oral argument time is used to make the lawyers feel dumb. So Thomas refuses to engage in that. I don't see how that equates to Ginsburg running her mouth multiple times about how much she dislikes Trump.
 

connor_in

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<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/0k94Ww12U50" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 

connor_in

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"When kids are scared by political candidates and policy debates, it’s a sign something has gone badly wrong." —Hillary</p>— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) <a href="https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/753275877622943746">July 13, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HillarysVoiceBeLike?src=hash">#HillarysVoiceBeLike</a> scaring the children. <a href="https://t.co/pffuYMCkYW">pic.twitter.com/pffuYMCkYW</a></p>— The Morning Spew (@TheMorningSpew) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheMorningSpew/status/753212371427098625">July 13, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 

phgreek

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Wow, seriously....did Trump get a guy on HRC's social media team?


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Imagine if Trump had not just Twitter to go after critics and opponents, but also the IRS—or our military. Do you think he’d be restrained?</p>— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) <a href="https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/753276953780744193">July 13, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I don't know...but I gotta hand it to her. There is tone deaf, hypocritical, oligarch shit always going on with her...but running for president makes this so outrageous, it is actually funny. Today, I watched some of her address and I seriously laughed out loud for most of what I watched...she SERIOUSLY has this shtick going here...its like she is talking , and you are remembering...and you crack up. She is straight man to her own history, it is fabulous. I think I'm warming to pants suit Lucifer, if for no other reason than she makes me laugh, and we are all doomed anyway.
 
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GATTACA!

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I don't know...but I gotta hand it to her. There is tone deaf, hypocritical, oligarch shit always going on with her...but running for president makes this so outrageous, it is actually funny. Today, I watched some of her address and I seriously laughed out loud for most of what I watched...she SERIOUSLY has this shtick going here...its like she is talking , and you are remembering...and you crack up. She is straight man to her own history, it is fabulous. I think I'm warming to pants suit Lucifer, if for no other reason than she makes me laugh, and we are all doomed anyway.

Donald Trump talked about the size of his dick on national television.
 

phgreek

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Donald Trump talked about the size of his dick on national television.

Yea...I mean in certain circles the irreverence would resonate...but hands down for me the universally funny shit is Hillary's one woman Abbot and Costello shtick. And for me personally, I hate her, and I know she is really trying to be serious...so its tasty and funny.

I don't think I can bring my self to mention the Donald's member and tasty in the same sentence...so there's that too.
 

NDgradstudent

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Some interesting data on Hispanics this election:

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Screenshot-2016-07-13-17.13.02.png


So Trump does no worse than McCain and Romney did with Hispanic voters. Nor do they appear to care much about who wins the election, the media propaganda to the contrary. As I have said all along, Hispanics vote Democratic because they tend to be poor and welfare-dependent, not because of immigration. The GOP will win 25-35% of their vote nationally in Presidential elections, and that's about it. No degree of pandering will change that.

Note too the massive gap between Hispanics who speak English at home and those who do not. It is almost as if being "American" makes a difference in how you vote...no wonder the Democrats oppose English-first measures. They prefer a fragmented society; it helps them win elections.
 
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