2016 Presidential Horse Race
- Thread starter DomeX2 eNVy
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GATTACA!
It's about to get gross
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BleedBlueGold
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Looks oddly familiar...
You raaaang....
nice find.
doesn't surprise me at all.
too bad someone (in either party) cant describe this phenomenon so the average idiot could understand what has happened/what is happening to this country.
Ndaccountant
Old Hoss
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That last statistic is a bit misleading. In 1965 payroll taxes changed substantially with the creation of Medicare and the associated payroll tax. Today, payroll taxes account for ~35% of all federal revenue, where in 1950's it was less than 10%. Remember, payroll taxes are paid by both employer and employee. When taking that into consideration, you see something much different (see below). The fact of the matter is that corporate income taxes have been essentially flat for the last 30 years, when measuring it as a % of GDP.
The problem of coarse is that corporations have options today like they never have before. So, the US may be lower than what they were 40 years ago or even 10 years ago for that matter. But it's all relative and as the image below shows, the US has lagged behind. Now, we can argue whether or not that is good for the world. But in the end, that is the playing field and the US can be in the game or on the sidelines. I personally think broadening the base and lowering the rate (including allowing deductions for foreign income taxes paid to help offset bringing that home) makes the most sense for everyone.
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With corporate income taxes currently comprising 11% of Federal Tax Revenue, any decrease pressures other sources of federal income (payroll tax, individual income tax). Otherwise, the 19 trillion dollar debt increases. (See NDAccountant's graphic above that demonstrates that Total Amount of Taxes paid by Corporations relative to the GDP is already near the lowest amount in fifty years.)
Many candidates would also decrease individual taxes, creating lower tax brackets. Without cuts, lower tax rates will increase borrowing and interest payments. The interest payments on current debt make up 6% of federal spending.
Military spending makes up 54% of discretionary spending more than any other expenditure. Republican candidates would increase that. Veterans benefits make up another 6% of discretionary spending. That is as much or more than any of the top non-military spending sectors. Those two make up 60% of discretionary spending.
Multinational corporations (MNC) have taken advantage of lower corporate tax rates overseas (Ireland 12.5%, UK 25%, Luzembourg 29%. But they also further lowered their taxes in those countries by techniques like "profit shifting" from to further reduce their corporate taxes. This technique is described as "Base Erosion and Profit Shifting - BEPS.
MNCs pay Ireland, UK and Luxembourg pay only 1-2% corporate taxes as a result of those techniques. With this type of tax revenue from MNCs instead of their lower corporate rates, those countries benefit only slightly from those rates.
OEC data on tax/tax on corporate profits (including % of GDP)
The international group of thirty-two nations, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has agreed upon a plan to make the MNCs pay their fair share at the rates that are common to their region - the BEPS plan of action. (For OECD, See membership - 32 countries including U.S. - and mission in link). One their point of action is that MNCs should pay taxes on the revenue earned in each country. This would go a long way towards eliminating "profit shifting" to other countries even from countries with lower corporate tax rates. European countries are using this to attack these types of actions, which, of course, require this type of global cooperation.
Right now companies do not pay U.S. tax on revenue overseas, but only when they bring the money back into the U.S. Republican presidential candidates propose a "repatriation fee" of 10-15% to move this revenue that was sent overseas to avoid the U.S. corporation tax of 35% back to the U.S.. That 10-15% is much lower than the average corporate tax rate in most other countries. In effect, "repatriation fees" are "profit shifting" also.
Lowering that tax rate to 25% helps companies who do not have overseas revenue. For MNCs, foreign tax credits further lower those rates which could be significant for Google, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, etc. Further investment overseas by these MNCs with foreign tax credits helps them further lower their U.S. taxes - and decreases federal corporate tax revenue (now 11% of federal income as above). Will it bring back jobs to the U.S.? Or will MNCs continue to keep jobs overseas due to lower wages? How then do we decrease the federal debt?
In short, lowering corporate tax rates is not the total solution without addressing these other issues.
Nice find, BBG. Broken at the Top
How America’s dysfunctional tax system costs billions in
corporate tax dodging
Many candidates would also decrease individual taxes, creating lower tax brackets. Without cuts, lower tax rates will increase borrowing and interest payments. The interest payments on current debt make up 6% of federal spending.
Military spending makes up 54% of discretionary spending more than any other expenditure. Republican candidates would increase that. Veterans benefits make up another 6% of discretionary spending. That is as much or more than any of the top non-military spending sectors. Those two make up 60% of discretionary spending.
Multinational corporations (MNC) have taken advantage of lower corporate tax rates overseas (Ireland 12.5%, UK 25%, Luzembourg 29%. But they also further lowered their taxes in those countries by techniques like "profit shifting" from to further reduce their corporate taxes. This technique is described as "Base Erosion and Profit Shifting - BEPS.
MNCs pay Ireland, UK and Luxembourg pay only 1-2% corporate taxes as a result of those techniques. With this type of tax revenue from MNCs instead of their lower corporate rates, those countries benefit only slightly from those rates.
OEC data on tax/tax on corporate profits (including % of GDP)
The international group of thirty-two nations, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has agreed upon a plan to make the MNCs pay their fair share at the rates that are common to their region - the BEPS plan of action. (For OECD, See membership - 32 countries including U.S. - and mission in link). One their point of action is that MNCs should pay taxes on the revenue earned in each country. This would go a long way towards eliminating "profit shifting" to other countries even from countries with lower corporate tax rates. European countries are using this to attack these types of actions, which, of course, require this type of global cooperation.
Right now companies do not pay U.S. tax on revenue overseas, but only when they bring the money back into the U.S. Republican presidential candidates propose a "repatriation fee" of 10-15% to move this revenue that was sent overseas to avoid the U.S. corporation tax of 35% back to the U.S.. That 10-15% is much lower than the average corporate tax rate in most other countries. In effect, "repatriation fees" are "profit shifting" also.
Lowering that tax rate to 25% helps companies who do not have overseas revenue. For MNCs, foreign tax credits further lower those rates which could be significant for Google, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, etc. Further investment overseas by these MNCs with foreign tax credits helps them further lower their U.S. taxes - and decreases federal corporate tax revenue (now 11% of federal income as above). Will it bring back jobs to the U.S.? Or will MNCs continue to keep jobs overseas due to lower wages? How then do we decrease the federal debt?
In short, lowering corporate tax rates is not the total solution without addressing these other issues.
Nice find, BBG. Broken at the Top
How America’s dysfunctional tax system costs billions in
corporate tax dodging
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PANDFAN
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NeverForget?src=hash">#NeverForget</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/7Eleven?src=hash">#7Eleven</a> their thirst will not be forgotten. ��✌️ <a href="https://t.co/OePq2aENy7">https://t.co/OePq2aENy7</a></p>— Trump Train (@RumpTrain) <a href="https://twitter.com/RumpTrain/status/722423544546725888">April 19, 2016</a></blockquote>
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IrishJayhawk
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Pretty funny. Akin to Obama saying they had been to 58 states.
Irish YJ
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Irish YJ
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CNN's website has Trump with 59.9% of the vote and 75 delegates so far with Kasich pulling in 25.2% and 2 delegates and Cruz 14.9% and no delegates.
However CNN's analyst John King broke down the congressional districts where Trump is close, plus OR minus, to 50%. Kings sees Trump taking about 90- 92 delegates with Kasich taking 3-5.
Fox's Carl Cameron sees Trump in the mid to high 80's, 85-87.
However CNN's analyst John King broke down the congressional districts where Trump is close, plus OR minus, to 50%. Kings sees Trump taking about 90- 92 delegates with Kasich taking 3-5.
Fox's Carl Cameron sees Trump in the mid to high 80's, 85-87.
AP has 89 of the 95 delegates for Trump and 3 for Kasich.
On Fox, Karl Rove just broke down the NY Congressional Districts and sees Kasich taking 2-3 delegates in Manhattan, CD-10, CD-12. Upstate Rove has Kasich likely getting 1 delegate in Albany CD-20, and possibly 1 each out of CD-24, Syracuse, and CD-25, Rochester.
Cruz gets 0.
Kasich's camp sent out a memo that Cruz's failure to win a delegate means he mathematically does not have a path to win the nomination before the convention.
On Fox, Karl Rove just broke down the NY Congressional Districts and sees Kasich taking 2-3 delegates in Manhattan, CD-10, CD-12. Upstate Rove has Kasich likely getting 1 delegate in Albany CD-20, and possibly 1 each out of CD-24, Syracuse, and CD-25, Rochester.
Cruz gets 0.
Kasich's camp sent out a memo that Cruz's failure to win a delegate means he mathematically does not have a path to win the nomination before the convention.
Graybeard52
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Oh, I want one of those. This election cycle is the biggest clown show I've witnessed yet and I've seen my share.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/20/u...er=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0
Bernie is done. Short of a massive scandal breaking, it seems completely unrealistic that he hits the remaining numbers he needs... and that's not even counting Supers.
Now just need to find a way to get rid of Trump and Cruz and we could have a reasonable election with reasonable choices that aren't a dire threat to the future of this country.
Bernie is done. Short of a massive scandal breaking, it seems completely unrealistic that he hits the remaining numbers he needs... and that's not even counting Supers.
Now just need to find a way to get rid of Trump and Cruz and we could have a reasonable election with reasonable choices that aren't a dire threat to the future of this country.
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Graybeard52
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Speaking to the main topic, there will be some steam coming out of the republican establishment's ears if Trump manages to win enough delegates before the RNC. Regardless, it's looking more and more like it will be Trump-Clinton. If you had suggested that would even be possible 20 years ago, I would have called you crazy.
Irish YJ
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Super Tuesday ... III
Super Tuesday ... III
Northeast Primary: April 26, 2016 (109 bound)
Connecticut Primary (28/25) — Winner take all above 50%, otherwise proportional with 20% threshold statewide and winner take all by congressional district
Delaware Primary (16) — Winner take all
Maryland Primary (38) — Winner take all
Pennsylvania Primary (71/14) — Winner take all statewide, remaining delegates elected on ballot and unbound
Rhode Island Primary (19/16) — Proportional with 10% threshold
CT Poll 4/12
Connecticut Republican Presidential Primary Emerson Trump 50, Kasich 26, Cruz 17 Trump +24
MD Poll 4/19
Maryland Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D) Trump 43, Kasich 29, Cruz 24 Trump +14
4/13 Maryland Republican Presidential Primary Monmouth Trump 47, Kasich 27, Cruz 19 Trump +20
PA 4/18
Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary Morning Call Trump 41, Cruz 23, Kasich 26 Trump +15
4/17 Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary CBS News/YouGov Trump 46, Cruz 26, Kasich 23 Trump +20
4/14 Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary Monmouth Trump 44, Cruz 28, Kasich 23 Trump +16
Super Tuesday ... III
Northeast Primary: April 26, 2016 (109 bound)
Connecticut Primary (28/25) — Winner take all above 50%, otherwise proportional with 20% threshold statewide and winner take all by congressional district
Delaware Primary (16) — Winner take all
Maryland Primary (38) — Winner take all
Pennsylvania Primary (71/14) — Winner take all statewide, remaining delegates elected on ballot and unbound
Rhode Island Primary (19/16) — Proportional with 10% threshold
CT Poll 4/12
Connecticut Republican Presidential Primary Emerson Trump 50, Kasich 26, Cruz 17 Trump +24
MD Poll 4/19
Maryland Republican Presidential Primary PPP (D) Trump 43, Kasich 29, Cruz 24 Trump +14
4/13 Maryland Republican Presidential Primary Monmouth Trump 47, Kasich 27, Cruz 19 Trump +20
PA 4/18
Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary Morning Call Trump 41, Cruz 23, Kasich 26 Trump +15
4/17 Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary CBS News/YouGov Trump 46, Cruz 26, Kasich 23 Trump +20
4/14 Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary Monmouth Trump 44, Cruz 28, Kasich 23 Trump +16
GATTACA!
It's about to get gross
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Unless that Pennsylvania number shifts quickly Trump has it wrapped up.
IrishJayhawk
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People keep complaining about the supers, but they aren't really going to be a factor.
And Republicans would give real money for that system right now.
BleedBlueGold
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Bernie needed a much better showing yesterday. I'm disappointed. It was a long shot before. Now it'll be even more difficult.
Trump vs Clinton. Gross.
Either of which will likely go down as the most disliked POTUS in history. Well done, America.
Trump vs Clinton. Gross.
Either of which will likely go down as the most disliked POTUS in history. Well done, America.
Short of a massive scandal breaking, being reported on fairly and pursued by authorities as it should if your name did not have any weight...it seems completely unrealistic....
Fixed it for you. I think there is enough dirt on Clinton that would cover most in a 6 foot grave but she and her husband are not most people....
Irish YJ
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To borrow a word from Wooly (I think he used it).....: oligarchy
gkIrish
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Not really. To reach the magic number Trump is going to have to win Indiana and probably one other state that Cruz is expected to win from what I saw last night. Even if he wins Indiana he may fall one short of the magic number.
BleedBlueGold
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It's my opinion that the words oligarchy and plutocracy define our current government. This started decades ago and has progressively gotten worse with each POTUS who is "unwilling to flip over the apple cart" and disturb the status quo.
ol·i·gar·chy
ˈäləˌɡärkē/
noun
- a small group of people having control of a country, organization, or institution.
plu·toc·ra·cy
plo͞oˈtäkrəsē/Submit
noun
- government by the wealthy.
- a country or society governed by the wealthy.
- an elite or ruling class of people whose power derives from their wealth.
Irish YJ
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Can't say I'm a big fan of Trump, but sad when a clear cut popular vote winner is really not the winner. Just another example of why people are so frustrated with politics in general regardless of party affiliation or core beliefs. I think all of this crap just fuels additional support for Trump's anti institution platform.