2016 Presidential Horse Race

[connor_in]

Hillary will never survive the Trump onslaught: It’s not fair, but it makes her a weak nominee - Salon.com

 

[connor_in]

'Who did this??' Ladies and gentlemen, 'the best GIF of this entire election cycle' - twitchy.com twitchy.com

Can't embed this right now but can link

 

[calvegas04]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">THIS IS THE GREATEST GIF YOULL SEE ALL DAY <a href="https://t.co/SlJRnE9UGG">pic.twitter.com/SlJRnE9UGG</a></p>— Bardock Obama (@TheBardockObama) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheBardockObama/status/709515829335826432">March 14, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[BGIF]

GOP OH POll

GOP OH POll

Kasich 40%
Trump 35
Cruz 15
Rubio 5

Monmouth University March 11-13 503 Ohio GOP Likely Primary Voters
Margin of Error +/- 4.4%


Quinnipiac Poll March 8-13 503 Likely GOP Primary Voters
Margin of Error +/- 3.7%

Kasich 38%
Trump 38
Cruz 16
Rubio 3

 

[BGIF]

FL GOP Poll

FL GOP Poll

Trump 44%
Rubio 27
Cruz 17
Kasich 9

Monmouth University Poll March 11-13 405 FL GOP Likely Primary Voters
Margin of Error +/- 4.9%



Real Clear Politics Average of Polls 3/4-3/14

Trump 43%
Rubio 24
Cruz 19
Kasich 9

 

[BGIF]

"Ohio will be close Kasich should win"

"Ohio will be close Kasich should win"

per Patrick Murphy Monmouth University Polling Insitute

 

[BGIF]

Impact of Chicago Rally on Trump Support

Impact of Chicago Rally on Trump Support

Per Murphy of Monmouth U. Polling Institute.

We were polling this past weekend and Sunday night added a question asking how people felt about Trump with the rally being shut down. Two thirds said it had no impact either way. 22% said it made them "more likely" to support Trump while 11% said it made them "less likely" to support Trump. On Sunday night Trump's lead widened.

 

[Legacy]

That is a perfectly reasonable and nuanced answer.

If anything she gained points in my book for that response. The entire world is moving away from coal, we need to be ahead of the problem and help the people whose livelihoods will be decimated by that policy change. They already give the children in Appalachia minority status for college scholarships, at least they did when I was at Ohio State.

It's really no different than if the food system ever got away from so much damn corn. The government got those farmers into it and had them borrow millions each on special equipment, so the government will be responsible for making sure such a switch doesn't wreck their livelihoods.

Nice graphic showing per state - Total Carbon Emissions, Percent to cut by 2030, Percent of Power from Coal

See Which States Use Coal the Most as New Climate Rule Is Finalized

The graphic below (Link above) explains the opposition: Overwhelmingly dependent on coal, these states will likely need a fundamental shift in their electricity mix in order to help the U.S. meet its climate goals. The new rule aims to cut carbon dioxide emissions from power plants—the nation's largest source of carbon pollution—32 percent from 2005 levels over the next 15 years. That's up from the 30 percent initially proposed in 2014.

and from the U.S. Energy Information Center:

Rankings: Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2013
(million metric tons)
---Also ranks states by Total Energy per Capita (Consumption and Expenditure) and well as the Production of Total Energy and different types of energy (Oil, Gas, Coal, Electricity)

 

[connor_in]

Chris Matthews' Hillary town hall mistaken for 'Bachelor' finale twitchy.com

 

[gkIrish]

I know for a fact there is at least one Kasich vote in Ohio

 

[RDU Irish]

I know for a fact there is at least one Kasich vote in Ohio

And one in North Carolina

 

[kmoose]

'Who did this??' Ladies and gentlemen, 'the best GIF of this entire election cycle' - twitchy.com twitchy.com

Can't embed this right now but can link

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">THIS IS THE GREATEST GIF YOULL SEE ALL DAY <a href="https://t.co/SlJRnE9UGG">pic.twitter.com/SlJRnE9UGG</a></p>— Bardock Obama (@TheBardockObama) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheBardockObama/status/709515829335826432">March 14, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That's hysterical. Good work by whomever did it...

 

[irishff1014]

And one in North Carolina

As long he is still on the ballet that's how i am leaning in MD.

 

[beryirish]

Here you go.

 

[wizards8507]

I know for a fact there is at least one Kasich vote in Ohio

And one in North Carolina

You're wasting your votes dudes. Kasich needs 1,174 delegates to win. Even if he wins Ohio, he could win 100% of every single remaining primary after today and he still wouldn't win.

A vote for Kasich is a vote for Trump. Pick whichever of Trump or Cruz you like better (or hate less) and vote for someone who can actually win. Voting for Kasich today is the same as voting for Ben Carson or Jeb Bush.

 

[wizards8507]

SIAP.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/OkSRJSUY0vs" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[gkIrish]

You're wasting your votes dudes. Kasich needs 1,174 delegates to win. Even if he wins Ohio, he could win 100% of every single remaining primary after today and he still wouldn't win.

A vote for Kasich is a vote for Trump. Pick whichever of Trump or Cruz you like better (or hate less) and vote for someone who can actually win. Voting for Kasich today is the same as voting for Ben Carson or Jeb Bush.

You are absolutely wrong. Cruz has no chance whatsoever to win Ohio. Absolutely none.

So my choice is either vote Trump and give him all the Ohio delegates or vote someone who can beat Trump and prevent Trump from getting all the delegates. Kasich is the only person who can beat Trump in Ohio.

 

[wizards8507]

You are absolutely wrong. Cruz has no chance whatsoever to win Ohio. Absolutely none.

So my choice is either vote Trump and give him all the Ohio delegates or vote someone who can beat Trump and prevent Trump from getting all the delegates. Kasich is the only person who can beat Trump in Ohio.

Strategically, a Kasich win in Ohio keeps Kasich in the race. Kasich in the race means Trump can continue to win and rack up delegates with 40% of the vote.

If you're #NeverTrump, you actually want Trump to win both Ohio and Florida because that knocks Rubio and Kasich out and gives Cruz a one-on-one.

 

[gkIrish]

Strategically, a Kasich win in Ohio keeps Kasich in the race. Kasich in the race means Trump can continue to win and rack up delegates with 40% of the vote.

If you're #NeverTrump, you actually want Trump to win both Ohio and Florida because that knocks Rubio and Kasich out and gives Cruz a one-on-one.

So why would Marco Rubio tell his voters to vote Kasich? Why would he want Kasich to stay in the race?

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Strategically, a Kasich win in Ohio keeps Kasich in the race. Kasich in the race means Trump can continue to win and rack up delegates with 40% of the vote.

If you're #NeverTrump, you actually want Trump to win both Ohio and Florida because that knocks Rubio and Kasich out and gives Cruz a one-on-one.

I'm not following. Why would Cruz/Trump one-on-one be a good thing for Repubs? Those are two most hated Rs in the race right now. And both could easily lose to HRC. Meanwhile, both Rubio and Kasich fall more towards actual sanity and both can easily beat HRC.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but shouldn't anti-Trump Repubs want a brokered a convention at this point?

 

[kmoose]

Strategically, a Kasich win in Ohio keeps Kasich in the race. Kasich in the race means Trump can continue to win and rack up delegates with 40% of the vote.

If you're #NeverTrump, you actually want Trump to win both Ohio and Florida because that knocks Rubio and Kasich out and gives Cruz a one-on-one.

Here's a novel fucking idea..........

How about if you vote for the candidate you think would do the best job? You wanna know why politics is so screwed up? Because the voters make it so. Quit worrying about who might win, or who has a better chance against Clinton/Sanders.... Just vote for the guy that you think will do the best job!!

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Here's a novel fucking idea..........

How about if you vote for the candidate you think would do the best job? You wanna know why politics is so screwed up? Because the voters make it so. Quit worrying about who might win, or who has a better chance against Clinton/Sanders.... Just vote for the guy that you think will do the best job!!

I'm on board with this. Reps.

 

[ozzman]

Strategically, a Kasich win in Ohio keeps Kasich in the race. Kasich in the race means Trump can continue to win and rack up delegates with 40% of the vote.

If you're #NeverTrump, you actually want Trump to win both Ohio and Florida because that knocks Rubio and Kasich out and gives Cruz a one-on-one.

Anything to keep Trump and Cruz between 30-40% so neither gets a majority. That way it's much easier for the RNC to choose someone else during the convention and make the argument that the majority of people chose no one.

 

[wizards8507]

So why would Marco Rubio tell his voters to vote Kasich? Why would he want Kasich to stay in the race?

Because Rubio, like Kasich, wants a brokered convention.

I'm not following. Why would Cruz/Trump one-on-one be a good thing for Repubs? Those are two most hated Rs in the race right now. And both could easily lose to HRC. Meanwhile, both Rubio and Kasich fall more towards actual sanity and both can easily beat HRC.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but shouldn't anti-Trump Repubs want a brokered a convention at this point?

I disagree with your assessment of Cruz. I think Cruz winning outright is the best-case scenario for electability in the general election. I understand his unfavorable ratings, but the fallout of a brokered convention would be far more detrimental to the party's chances in November. If Trump goes to the convention with a plurality and then does not come out with the nomination, I think the best case scenario is Trump goes third party and worst case scenario there are riots in the streets of Cleveland. In either case, the party is toast.

Anything to keep Trump and Cruz between 30-40% so neither gets a majority. That way it's much easier for the RNC to choose someone else during the convention and make the argument that the majority of people chose no one.

If you're both anti-Trump and anti-Cruz, you're right. I think (maybe I'm wrong) that the anti-Trump folks are more likely to coalesce around Cruz than kick it to a brokered convention. People assume that anti-establishment sentiment is consolidated around Trump, but there's still a significant anti-establishment wing of the party to whom a Romney-Ryan ticket coming out of a brokered convention would be just as bad as Trump.

 

[Booslum31]

I think the City of Cleveland will rue the day that they were awarded the Republican National Convention. I think it is going to be an outragous circus. Hope nobody gets hurt. I'm going to make sure that I'm out of town for it.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I disagree with your assessment of Cruz. I think Cruz winning outright is the best-case scenario for electability in the general election. I understand his unfavorable ratings, but the fallout of a brokered convention would be far more detrimental to the party's chances in November. If Trump goes to the convention with a plurality and then does not come out with the nomination, I think the best case scenario is Trump goes third party and worst case scenario there are riots in the streets of Cleveland. In either case, the party is toast

What's to disagree with. Cruz is hated by the GOP elites. That's no secret. Also, as far as electability in the GE, Cruz and HRC are basically a wash according to Real Clear Politics.

From an Independent perspective, I feel like you're more worried about the collapse of the GOP party than actually getting one in the WH. RealClearPolitics - 2016 Presidential Race

Going to a brokered convention and having the party select a Kasich/Rubio (or Rubio/Kasich) ticket would give HRC a run for her money and RCP average polling shows they'd probably win. So aside from voting for the person you feel best represents your beliefs, you should be voting for the person most likely to actually beat the opponent, no?

 

[RDU Irish]

I'm unaffiliated so I resisted the urge to pick up a Dem ballot and vote Bernie just to flick off Hillary since I know my support of the most qualified candidate still in the race (Kasich) is pretty much wasted. But there is the outside chance Kasich comes out of a brokered convention on top since he is the only adult in the room and can deliver an important swing state (unlike every other candidate that delivers zero swing states).

 

[drayer54]

Voting for Kasich in Ohio and Rubio in Florida is perfect because
1) Cruz won't win them anyways, and it's just going to boost Trump.
2) It stops Trump fro, reaching the much needed delegate number. So the crooked folks running the party can stop Trump.

 

[RDU Irish]

What's to disagree with. Cruz is hated by the GOP elites. That's no secret. Also, as far as electability in the GE, Cruz and HRC are basically a wash according to Real Clear Politics.

From an Independent perspective, I feel like you're more worried about the collapse of the GOP party than actually getting one in the WH. RealClearPolitics - 2016 Presidential Race

Going to a brokered convention and having the party select a Kasich/Rubio (or Rubio/Kasich) ticket would give HRC a run for her money and RCP average polling shows they'd probably win. So aside from voting for the person you feel best represents your beliefs, you should be voting for the person most likely to actually beat the opponent, no?

Great post - maybe the party needs to crash and burn to clean out the crap? Cruz is a turd sandwich and Trump obviously a giant douche - acting like people have no point in voting unless they vote for them is absurd. Maybe Kasich is a protest vote to show people who care and will show up think they both suck even though the guy I pull the lever for probably gets squat out of my state. Maybe it shows support that can lead to his VP nod - which is paired with Trump I think would be making the most of a crappy situation.

 

[wizards8507]

Going to a brokered convention and having the party select a Kasich/Rubio (or Rubio/Kasich) ticket would give HRC a run for her money and RCP average polling shows they'd probably win. So aside from voting for the person you feel best represents your beliefs, you should be voting for the person most likely to actually beat the opponent, no?

This is where I disagree.

Rubio would have been the "most electable" candidate if he had won the delegates in the first place. Rubio (or any candidate) coming out of a brokered convention would not result in an electable candidate because the Trump supporters would bail.

In other words, I think a brokered convention means the Republicans lose no matter what candidate comes out of it, so I don't want a brokered convention.