2016 Presidential Horse Race

[BGIF]

...or lets commit so many super delegates to the Front-runner before the process starts, that the process largely doesn't matter.

More worried about the absolute manipulation of the process from the Hillary mafia than I am a political happenstance born out of the process actually working the way it should, and yielding an unsavory result.

Super delegates are generally party faithful who owe their jobs/position to the establishment. That's no happenstance. They weren't at a Trump or Sanders rally.

 

[BGIF]

CNN projects Sanders tops Clinton in Maine caucuses; Rubio wins Puerto Rico primary - CNNPolitics.com

With 100% of the votes counted on the island, Rubio topped the 50% threshold required to win all 23 of Puerto Rico's delegates.

 

[BGIF]

Super Saturday: Rubio and allies spent more than double the field per vote - CNNPolitics.com

(CNN)The numbers on Super Saturday are small -- five states, with fewer than a million votes cast across all contests on the day -- but they're no less fun for that.

Take Marco Rubio. The Florida senator and his allies spent nearly twice as much in TV advertising per vote as all other candidates combined -- Republicans and Democrats.

Here's how that breaks down: Conservative Solutions PAC, which backs Rubio, spent $124,590 on ads in Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine in the 15 months up to Saturday. Rubio took 85,064 votes across the four states, which works out to $1.46 per vote.

That might seem like a good deal until you see the numbers for the other candidates.

Donald Trump and John Kasich spent no money on advertising. Trump got the largest number of votes in the Republican field, with 230,443, while Kasich came last with 62,554. Both spent zero dollars per vote.

Ted Cruz got nearly the same number of votes as Trump -- 230,209 Republicans backed the Texas senator -- but spent $60,240 to do it. That works out to 26 cents per vote.

Over on the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders will be celebrating winning two (smallish) states to Hillary Clinton's one (medium-sized) state on Saturday. But like Cruz, he spent to do it.

The Sanders campaign stumped up $55,060 in TV ads in the three states holding Democratic contests, and 114,564 Democrats felt the Bern. That's a budget-conscious 48 cents per vote.

Clinton, for her part spent a measly $6,810 on advertising, and got 246,501 in return. That's less than 3 cents per vote.

Add up all the candidates other than Rubio and you get about 77 cents per vote, or just about half the Floridian's $1.46. Ouch.

TV advertising spending estimates from January 1, 2015 to March 5, 2016 in Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine and Nebraska come from CMAG/Kantar Media.

 

[BGIF]

Trump or Cruz? U.S. Republicans face tough choices as primary race churns forward | Reuters

BY GINGER GIBSON AND ANDY SULLIVAN
Mon Mar 7, 2016 1:15am EST

Republicans desperate to stop Donald Trump from capturing the party's presidential nomination are wrestling with whether to unite behind Ted Cruz, a polarizing figure popular with the conservative Tea Party movement.

Cruz, 45, a U.S. senator from Texas, won nominating contests in Kansas and Maine on Saturday, bolstering his argument that he is the leading alternative to Trump, 69, the blunt-spoken billionaire businessman.

Mainstream Republicans are unhappy with Trump's calls to build a wall on the border with Mexico, deport 11 million illegal immigrants and temporarily bar all Muslims from entering the United States.

Many establishment Republicans are reluctant, however, to rally behind Cruz, whom they see as too conservative for the general electorate in the Nov. 8 election to succeed Democratic President Barack Obama.

Cruz has run as an outsider bent on shaking up the Republican establishment in Washington. A favorite of evangelicals, he has called for the United States to "carpet bomb" the Islamic State militant group and has pledged to eliminate the tax-collecting Internal Revenue Service and four Cabinet agencies.

But he angered many Republican colleagues when he led the call in 2013 for a standoff in the U.S. Congress that led to a 16-day shutdown of the federal government.

Republican pollster Neil Newhouse said Cruz had not yet shown an ability to appeal beyond the most conservative voters.

"The way things are going, I think it's extraordinarily unlikely that Senator Cruz becomes the focal point for Republicans who want to stop Trump," said Newhouse, who was lead pollster for 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Kim Reem, a member of the executive committee of the National Federation of Republican Women, said both Trump and Cruz were polarizing figures within their party. She said three factions were emerging among Republicans: those supporting Trump, those backing Cruz, and supporters of the party establishment.

"The Cruz folks don't want to yield to supporting Trump and the Trump folks don't want to yield to supporting Cruz, and some establishment folks don’t want to support either one of them," said Reem. "I don’t see a path to making everybody happy."

Some Republicans argue Cruz is not polling strongly enough in states such as Florida and Ohio. Both will soon hold nominating contests, leading some in the party to question whether backing Cruz would be the best way to stop Trump.

UNFORGIVING MATH

To win the nomination, 1,237 delegates are needed. Cruz has won 300 and Trump 374. U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, 44, of Florida, an establishment favorite still seen by some in the party as an option to Trump, stood to build on his 123 delegates after winning the 23-delegate Puerto Rico primary on Sunday. Ohio Governor John Kasich trails with 35 delegates.

Some establishment Republicans say the best way to stop Trump would be for Rubio to win the 99-delegate Florida contest and Kasich the 66-delegate Ohio primary. Both states award all their delegates to the top vote-getter.

If Cruz, Rubio and Kasich can collectively prevent Trump from getting the needed majority of delegates, they could force a brokered Republican Party convention in July in Cleveland.

Even if Cruz gets the second-highest vote total, he may have trouble claiming the nomination at the convention over Trump.

Former U.S. Senator Trent Lott of Mississippi said he would have a hard time supporting a Cruz nomination. "He'd have to change his tactics and his conduct an awful lot," he said.

Cruz has feuded with party leadership, including Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and has often accused fellow Republicans of selling out conservative principles.

Although he has been in the Senate for four years, Cruz has not won a single endorsement from any other senator. He touts that on the campaign trail as evidence he is an outsider.

Cruz notably read Dr. Seuss' children's book "Green Eggs and Ham" on the Senate floor as he pushed to repeal Obama's signature healthcare reform law. That politically damaging effort shut down the government for more than two weeks in 2013.

If nothing else, the internal debate reveals a party still deeply divided about how to move forward with Trump and Cruz leading the primary fight.

Slater Bayliss, a Florida Republican who raised money for former Florida Governor Jeb Bush before he dropped out of the race, said: "From my perspective, Senator Cruz's views are indicative of only a very small cohort in our party."

 

[NDPhilly]

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Whites cant be poor apparently. Cant tell if he's just a delusional liberal or pandering as hard as possible to the minority vote.

 

[Buster Bluth]

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Whites cant be poor apparently. Cant tell if he's just a delusional liberal or pandering as hard as possible to the minority vote.

Well he definitely misspoke but he's one word, "most," from that being a perfectly accurate statement.

The stereotypical white person goes from their garage door, down the highway, to the parking lot and then back. I mean that's commuting in the "American Dream," and it'd an experience that doesn't have much experience in the ghetto.

Conservatives are correct when they say racism isn't what it used to be. There is an easy argument to make that white and black has been overtaken by urban and suburban. If you're a well spoken black guy from the suburbs you have every advantage a white person has, if not more. Whereas if you're white and grow up "urban," you have almost every disadvantage.

So Sanders is wrong there but a larger point that whites moved out of the cities and have little interaction with the poor urban blacks in the ghetto on sidewalks or public transit. Garage door, highway, parking lot, repeat. Suburban kids aren't in classrooms with urban poor.

It's not crazy to say most white people don't experience, and thus really understand, life those neighborhoods, ghettos, and what it's like to grow up in them. I took a job at Toledo Libbey HS to get some experience there, I know I've talked about it before, but it was a constant learning experience and I didn't even see police interaction. Of course on that front...white or black, urban America doesn't get the benefit of the doubt the way suburban America does.

It of course also helps that he's in Michigan and is trying to get the black vote to budge away from Clinton.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Well he definitely misspoke but he's one word, "most," from that being a perfectly accurate statement.

The stereotypical white person goes from their garage door, down the highway, to the parking lot and then back. I mean that's commuting in the "American Dream," and it'd an experience that doesn't have much experience in the ghetto.

Conservatives are correct when they say racism isn't what it used to be. There is an easy argument to make that white and black has been overtaken by urban and suburban. If you're a well spoken black guy from the suburbs you have every advantage a white person has, if not more. Whereas if you're white and grow up "urban," you have almost every disadvantage.

So Sanders is wrong there but a larger point that whites moved out of the cities and have little interaction with the poor urban blacks in the ghetto on sidewalks or public transit. Garage door, highway, parking lot, repeat. Suburban kids aren't in classrooms with urban poor.

It's not crazy to say most white people don't experience, and thus really understand, life those neighborhoods, ghettos, and what it's like to grow up in them. I took a job at Toledo Libbey HS to get some experience there, I know I've talked about it before, but it was a constant learning experience and I didn't even see police interaction. Of course on that front...white or black, urban America doesn't get the benefit of the doubt the way suburban America does.

It of course also helps that he's in Michigan and is trying to get the black vote to budge away from Clinton.

Bernie is desperately trying to sway the AA vote from Hillary. The South killed him and I think he's just putting some extra emphasis on that community to sway some more voters. If he actually meant what he said, though, then I'd agree that it's not accurate and he could've picked his phrasing better.

 

[wizards8507]

The stereotypical white person goes from their garage door, down the highway, to the parking lot and then back. I mean that's commuting in the "American Dream," and it'd an experience that doesn't have much experience in the ghetto.

Who cares what the "stereotypical" white person does? Is Bernie campaigning to be the "hypothetical" President of the United States of America? Real white people have all sorts of different experiences, just like real black people. I guarantee you that Corey Robinson had a more "privileged" path to Notre Dame than I did, and skin color has nothing to do with it. Wealth dictates privilege, not race.

The first ghetto was the Jewish Ghetto in 16th-century Venice. Ever heard of Chinatown or Little Italy in every major city in America? South Boston? East Harlem? They're all ethnic ghettos today, in 2016, and they're not "black" neighborhoods.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Who cares what the "stereotypical" white person does? Is Bernie campaigning to be the "hypothetical" President of the United States of America? Real white people have all sorts of different experiences, just like real black people. I guarantee you that Corey Robinson had a more "privileged" path to Notre Dame than I did, and skin color has nothing to do with it. Wealth dictates privilege, not race.

Did you leave your reading comprehension under your pillow? That's the point of my post with a planner’s take on land use sprinkled on top.

The first ghetto was the Jewish Ghetto in 16th-century Venice. Ever heard of Chinatown or Little Italy in every major city in America? South Boston? East Harlem? They're all ethnic ghettos today, in 2016, and they're not "black" neighborhoods.

This is some next level crap.

It is a uniquely American phenomenon of abandoning inner cities and locking blacks in them for decades while the whites largely got a subsidized existence getting ahead in suburbia. There simply is no other country that did that on the scale of the US government. And in the Midwest it is perhaps the most obvious, which is where he was speaking last night.

 

[NDgradstudent]

Sanders has a lot of nerve lecturing white people about anything, considering the composition of his voting base.

As Steve Sailer asks:

Can Bernie and his supporters even claim a moral victory? If Bernie loses because he got his ass kicked by black voters doesn’t that automatically make him not the moral winner but the immoral loser? By definition, blacks represent morality. Hence, because blacks hate him, Bernie deserves to lose.

Q.E.D.

 

[GoIrish41]

Louis C.K. Sends Out Epic Email Annihilating Donald Trump's Candidacy

 

[JughedJones]

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I would vote for Trump over Cruz and I wouldn't even pause to think it over in the booth.

whoa

 

[JughedJones]

Sanders has a lot of nerve lecturing white people about anything, considering the composition of his voting base.

As Steve Sailer asks:

you have a lot of nerve calling yourself a ND grad student.

 

[woolybug25]

Ahh... Buster and Wiz going after it. I'll spoil it for everyone. Buster will kill him with facts until Wiz finds some fact or statistic he can twist and someone (probably me) will actually look at his link and realize that he is lying about it's content. He will then quit posting for a couple days in the politics thread.

Wiz Fact - You can never be wrong if you never acknowledge it.

 

[JughedJones]

...or lets commit so many super delegates to the Front-runner before the process starts, that the process largely doesn't matter.

More worried about the absolute manipulation of the process from the Hillary mafia than I am a political happenstance born out of the process actually working the way it should, and yielding an unsavory result.

Don't try so hard. Those words aren't nearly as smart as you think they are. You sound like a dope who supports fascists.

 

[woolybug25]

Don't try so hard. Those words aren't nearly as smart as you think they are. You sound like a dope who supports fascists.

Jughed... C'mon man... this schtick of insulting everyone is worn out. It never ends well and it's a poor reflection on you. If you cannot debate with these guys without insulting everyone, then just stick to the non-political threads. You're gonna get yourself a vacation if you don't chill.

 

[wizards8507]

This is some next level crap.

It is a uniquely American phenomenon of abandoning inner cities and locking blacks in them for decades while the whites largely got a subsidized existence getting ahead in suburbia. There simply is no other country that did that on the scale of the US government. And in the Midwest it is perhaps the most obvious, which is where he was speaking last night.

1. I've never denied a history of systematic racial discrimination in this country. That's very real. But Bernie Sanders isn't running for president in 1966. Maybe it's a generational thing, but people my age and a bit older honest-to-God don't have a second thought about race in our daily lives.

2. You can't criticize suburbians for living a "subsidized" existence when the suburbians are the ones paying all the taxes.

3. Point #3 has nothing to do with race (in 2016). A black family in the suburbs has the same advantage (and tax burden) over a poor white urbanite that a suburbian white family has over a poor black urbanite.

4. Inner cities aren't the only areas that have been "abandoned" in the way you describe. Rural areas have felt the same thing. Urban problems are just more obvious because they're located in close physical proximity to wealth and media power.

Jughed... C'mon man... this schtick of insulting everyone is worn out. It never ends well and it's a poor reflection on you. If you cannot debate with these guys without insulting everyone, then just stick to the non-political threads. You're gonna get yourself a vacation if you don't chill.

It's even better when he gets high and then insults everyone. Far more entertaining.

 

[JughedJones]

Jughed... C'mon man... this schtick of insulting everyone is worn out. It never ends well and it's a poor reflection on you. If you cannot debate with these guys without insulting everyone, then just stick to the non-political threads. You're gonna get yourself a vacation if you don't chill.

i understand you think I'm insulting everyone. but he just supported a group of people taking a loyalty oath to a presidential candidate.

Let's put that aside for a moment, though. I don't feel the need to debate with everything. I do feel the need to call people out. Maybe you think we should hold back, appeal to the better angels, and all that.

I think it's crazy. If you defend the behavior, you're just as bad.


Wizards said:

Maybe it's a generational thing, but people my age and a bit older honest-to-God don't have a second thought about race in our daily lives.

Exactly. This is the issue. Except it's not you're age. It's just people like you.

 

[woolybug25]

i understand you think I'm insulting everyone. but he just supported a group of people taking a loyalty oath to a presidential candidate.

Let's put that aside for a moment, though. I don't feel the need to debate with everything. I do feel the need to call people out. Maybe you think we should hold back, appeal to the better angels, and all that.

I think it's crazy. If you defend the behavior, you're just as bad.

That isn't what you are doing at all. You are just insulting people at every turn. Look...

Don't try so hard. Those words aren't nearly as smart as you think they are.

You only end up sounding equally stupid, and I'm proving it right now!

Don't try so hard. Those words aren't nearly as smart as you think they are. You sound like a dope who supports fascists.

Keep on melting, weirdo.

You're melting down. Take a lap, kid.

Those are all insults and not providing any value to the board. No one is taking you seriously and no one is respecting your opinion right now. It's not even because they disagree with you, it's because you are acting like a child. Grow up, we don't need that kind of discourse in these threads. It's that kind of behavior that turns these threads into unreadable garbage.

 

[wizards8507]

Wizards said:

Maybe it's a generational thing, but people my age and a bit older honest-to-God don't have a second thought about race in our daily lives.

Exactly. This is the issue.

That's not the issue, that's the answer. Healthy race relations are not fostered by balkanization, they're fostered by assimilation and integration. The progressive left wants everyone to worship "minority culture" and demonize "white culture," but that's completely the wrong approach. Progress is made in the areas where there's no such thing as "minority culture" or "white culture."

The same is true with modern-era radical feminism. "Pro-woman" policies are ignorant and counter-productive. Instead, we should focus on pro-everyone policies that just so happen to benefit women.

 

[JughedJones]

That's not the issue, that's the answer. Healthy race relations are not fostered by balkanization, they're fostered by assimilation and integration. The progressive left wants everyone to worship "minority culture" and demonize "white culture," but that's completely the wrong approach. Progress is made in the areas where there's no such thing as "minority culture" or "white culture."

The same is true with modern-era radical feminism. "Pro-woman" policies are ignorant and counter-productive. Instead, we should focus on pro-everyone policies that just so happen to benefit women.

good god in heaven... i couldn't disagree with you more.

I defy you to tell me what, in your own words, makes up "modern era radical feminism." As soon as you say something like that, you sound like a moron.

Wooly: I totally agree with you. I am acting like a jerk, but do you see what I'm dealing with?

This dude just dropped bombs. Apparently, I "worship "minority culture", and demonize "white culture."

Am I supposed to debate with someone that spouts this shit like they're a regular person or should I just call them what they are?

 

[woolybug25]

good god in heaven... i couldn't disagree with you more.

I defy you to tell me what, in your own words, makes up "modern era radical feminism." As soon as you say something like that, you sound like a moron.

Wooly: I totally agree with you. I am acting like a jerk, but do you see what I'm dealing with?

This dude just dropped bombs. Apparently, I "worship "minority culture", and demonize "white culture."

Am I supposed to debate with someone that spouts this shit like they're a regular person or should I just call them what they are?

I hope the mods put you on vacation. You seemingly cannot engage with anyone without personally insulting them. It's a board rule, man. If you can't play nice, then you aren't giving the mods any choice but to pull you from the sandbox.

 

[JughedJones]

I hope the mods put you on vacation. You seemingly cannot engage with anyone without personally insulting them. It's a board rule, man. If you can't play nice, then you aren't giving the mods any choice but to pull you from the sandbox.

Folks referring to 'modern radical feminism', and that one supports 'minority culture,' whilst 'demonizing white culture' is fine though.

What are we doing here?

 

[wizards8507]

I defy you to tell me what, in your own words, makes up "modern era radical feminism." As soon as you say something like that, you sound like a moron.

Abortion free and on-demand. Subsidized contraception. The wage gap myth. Anyone who has ever used the word "herstory." Anyone who has ever used the word "manspreading." Women who won't let you hold the door for them. Women who think every man is a rapist.

 

[JughedJones]

Abortion free and on-demand. Subsidized contraception. The wage gap myth. Anyone who has ever used the word "herstory." Anyone who has ever used the word "manspreading." Women who won't let you hold the door for them. Women who think every man is a rapist.

Holy shit. You're serious, huh?

 

[woolybug25]

Folks referring to 'modern radical feminism', and that one supports 'minority culture,' whilst 'demonizing white culture' is fine though.

What are we doing here?

Yes... it is fine. Because that is what debate is, one person disagreeing with the other. Then using facts and opinions to argue their point. Wiz using terms you don't like, and/or disagreeing with you, does not give you the right to personally attack him.

I have no idea why you think someone having a different opinion gives you the right to insult them personally. I don't see the connection.

 

[wizards8507]

Wooly be like "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it."

 

[NorthDakota]

Yes... it is fine. Because that is what debate is, one person disagreeing with the other. Then using facts and opinions to argue their point. Wiz using terms you don't like, and/or disagreeing with you, does not give you the right to personally attack him.

I have no idea why you think someone having a different opinion gives you the right to insult them personally. I don't see the connection.

He is from Portland....that answers any questions I had.

 

[JughedJones]

Yes... it is fine. Because that is what debate is, one person disagreeing with the other. Then using facts and opinions to argue their point. Wiz using terms you don't like, and/or disagreeing with you, does not give you the right to personally attack him.

I have no idea why you think someone having a different opinion gives you the right to insult them personally. I don't see the connection.

See, that's where you and I part ways.

These things aren't 'opinions' that thinking people have. He said some very serious shit.

You can't have a debate with that anymore. At least you shouldn't.

"The wage gap myth. Anyone who has ever used the word "herstory." Anyone who has ever used the word "manspreading." Women who won't let you hold the door for them. Women who think every man is a rapist."

"balkanization"

"worship minority culture"

"whilst 'demonizing white culture"


You shouldn't debate people who talk like this. You should shame them.

 

[wizards8507]

See, that's where you and I part ways.

These things aren't 'opinions' that thinking people have. He said some very serious shit.

You can't have a debate with that anymore. At least you shouldn't.

"The wage gap myth. Anyone who has ever used the word "herstory." Anyone who has ever used the word "manspreading." Women who won't let you hold the door for them. Women who think every man is a rapist."

"balkanization"

"worship minority culture"

"whilst 'demonizing white culture"

You shouldn't debate people who talk like this. You should shame them.

Seriously, is this guy an out-of-this-world poster in recruiting threads or something that I'm missing? He's far more obnoxious than IrishPat ever was.