2016 Presidential Horse Race

[EddytoNow]

Has to help Rubio, right? If Kasich suspends too, Rubio becomes a power candidate with an extra 15 percent support behind him. That would have pushed him past Trump in SC. Clear out the also-rans and this is a new race.

I think most of Jeb's supporters will end up with Rubio, but I'm not so sure that Rubio will get Kasich's supporters in large numbers. Kasich, in an effort to to paint himself as the most moderate of the Republican primary candidates, avoided the rhetoric being used by the others. He talked about working together and getting things done. Rubio has painted himself into the far right corner in an effort to appeal to the far right base. Rubio's comments about stonewalling a Supreme Court nominee and other issues may not appeal to the moderate Republicans and Democrats who are supporting Kasich. Rubio has not been portraying himself as someone who can bring Republicans and Democrats together to get things done. Some of Kasich's support could even go to Sanders or Clinton.

 

[drayer54]

Rubio is the best shot for the GOP right now, IMO.

100%

Look at the image in SC last night. A popular black GOP senator and Indian descent governor who have came from nothing standing behind the son of a bartender and a maid. A man who just recently paid off his student loans and understands living paycheck to paycheck. For a party with a rich white guy perception problem.... This is the cure.

He needs to gain the Bush support and he's pretty darn good at getting endorsements. Trump is winning, but he's doing so at his ceiling. Kasich needs to take a hint and get out. Bush dumped tons of money against Rubio, so hopefully that slows down.

Cruz cannot win against Hillary and the speech last night where "defied the pundits and overcame the odds" was laughable as the pundits said this state was designed for him. He is just not like able and I think will realize his ceiling in SC too.

2016 is Rubio or bust for the GOP.

 

[GoIrish41]

I think most of Jeb's supporters will end up with Rubio, but I'm not so sure that Rubio will get Kasich's supporters in large numbers. Kasich, in an effort to to paint himself as the most moderate of the Republican primary candidates, avoided the rhetoric being used by the others. He talked about working together and getting things done. Rubio has painted himself into the far right corner in an effort to appeal to the far right base. Rubio's comments about stonewalling a Supreme Court nominee and other issues may not appeal to the moderate Republicans and Democrats who are supporting Kasich. Rubio has not been portraying himself as someone who can bring Republicans and Democrats together to get things done. Some of Kasich's support could even go to Sanders or Clinton.

I'm talking about the republican primaries though. I don't see Kasich support flowing to Trump or Cruz so Rubio seems to be the last legitimate alternative left standing who is not one of those two guys. Once the general candidates are sorted out, it's a whole new ballgame. As you said, there may be voters shifting across party lines to find an acceptable candidate. This is where Independent voters will be key.

 

[GoIrish41]

100%

Look at the image in SC last night. A popular black GOP senator and Indian descent governor who have came from nothing standing behind the son of a bartender and a maid. A man who just recently paid off his student loans and understands living paycheck to paycheck. For a party with a rich white guy perception problem.... This is the cure.

He needs to gain the Bush support and he's pretty darn good at getting endorsements. Trump is winning, but he's doing so at his ceiling. Kasich needs to take a hint and get out. Bush dumped tons of money against Rubio, so hopefully that slows down.

Cruz cannot win against Hillary and the speech last night where "defied the pundits and overcame the odds" was laughable as the pundits said this state was designed for him. He is just not like able and I think will realize his ceiling in SC too.

2016 is Rubio or bust for the GOP.

I suspect Cruz is already running at max capacity, too. He and Trump have over half of the party's voters on board right now. Question is, if they begin to fall off, where will their support move? When it gets down to 2 candidates, does Trump support go to Cruz or vice versa, or is Rubio the beneficiary of their nasty political attacks on each other? At the moment, I am glad that the Trump and Cruz egos are nowhere close to allowing them to bow out (which probably helps Trump keep winning with a third of the party's support). But Rubio will find new support from the bottom feeders dropping out and he will be on par with Trump support going forward, I suspect. SC hurts Cruz a lot, IMO.

 

[drayer54]

I suspect Cruz is already running at max capacity, too. He and Trump have over half of the party's voters on board right now. Question is, if they begin to fall off, where will their support move? When it gets down to 2 candidates, does Trump support go to Cruz or vice versa, or is Rubio the beneficiary of their nasty political attacks on each other? At the moment, I am glad that the Trump and Cruz egos are nowhere close to allowing them to bow out (which probably helps Trump keep winning with a third of the party's support). But Rubio will find new support from the bottom feeders dropping out and he will be on par with Trump support going forward, I suspect. SC hurts Cruz a lot, IMO.

SC has to hurt Cruz. It was his to win and he was supposed to be the guy that ran the South. Trump people aren't going to leave him. These people are the kind that like that sort of thing.... Rubio hasn't gone after Trump much and I think it is because he knows that he won't chip much off that block.

What killed me is in the exit polling for CNN, only 15% of the people prioritized the candidate most likely to win in November. After two general election losses, you would think this number is higher.

 

[pkt77242]

Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War | FiveThirtyEight

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

Capitalism led to the collapse of the economy and the great depression. When the poor and middle-class were left out there was no market left to purchase the products of industry. Although the country is far from socialist, it was FDR and his socialist programs (WPA, CCC, etc.) that put the country back to work building the infrastructure that carried us for decades. During Bush II's administration we followed the Conservative approach and reduced taxes on the wealthiest. We waited for something to trickle down, and the economy headed towards a second depression. Bush and most conservatives opposed assistance to the faltering auto industry, which provided millions of jobs across the country. Obama, for all his faults, helped push through assistance for the auto manufacturers, and the auto industry rebounded. Now governors in the Midwest (Yes, I'm talking about you Kasich) are taking credit for savings thousands of auto industry jobs. Jobs that would have been lost if the federal government had not come to their assistance.

As far as Venezuela goes, its people were poor and starving long before socialism gained a foothold. It survived on a subsistence economy that was neither Capitalist nor Socialist until foreigners (in the name of Capitalism) came to exploit the country's natural resources. Capitalism and the dictators who benefited from the exploitation of natural resources bear more responsibility for the poverty so rampant in Central and South America. Socialism was a natural reaction to decades of impoverishment and exploitation at the hands of brutal dictators and their Capitalist backers.

Wow. Just...wow. Again, the shitshow of 2008 happened because the feds forced banks to give mortgages to people who couldn't afford homes. Community Reinvestment Act.

As for Venezeula, are the "foreigners" you're referring to the socialist political leaders? Because they're the ones who took an oil rich nation and in almost 15 years led its people down a path that we see now: food shortage, starving people, and civil unrest.

 

[connor_in]

 

[pkt77242]

More big GOP donors shift to Marco Rubio

 

[pkt77242]

Kasich said women 'came out of kitchen' to back him - CNNPolitics.com

 

[beryirish]

Kasich said women 'came out of kitchen' to back him - CNNPolitics.com

I don't mind the comment one bit - just annoying how people twist it for their benefit.

 

[drayer54]

I don't mind the comment one bit - just annoying how people twist it for their benefit.

I'm more offended he hasn't dropped out yet.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Wow. Just...wow. Again, the shitshow of 2008 happened because the feds forced banks to give mortgages to people who couldn't afford homes. Community Reinvestment Act.

Uh huh. That's a highly debated notion that at best says that the CRA was a part of the problem, not the main culprit or the sole cause. The toppling of the housing economy in 2007 isn't due to a law created in 1977.

For what it's worth, in the Federal Reserve's words:

The Federal Reserve Board has found no connection between CRA and the subprime mortgage problems. In fact, the Board's analysis found that nearly 60 percent of higher-priced loans went to middle- or higher-income borrowers or neighborhoods, which are not the focus of CRA activity. Additionally, about 20 percent of the higher-priced loans that were extended in low- or moderate-income areas, or to low- or moderate-income borrowers, were loans originated by lenders not covered by the CRA. Our analysis found that only six percent of all higher-priced loans were made by CRA-covered lenders to borrowers and neighborhoods targeted by the CRA. Further, our review of loan performance found that rates of serious mortgage delinquency are high in all neighborhood groups, not just in lower-income areas.

Or this nifty research bit:

It also finds that loan volume and risk increases the most during 2004-2006, and points to the private securitization market as an important channel. This, along with characteristics above, pushes back against the idea that the CRA primed a subprime pump in the late 1990s and early 2000s, another favorite of movement conservative finance writers. If anything, banks undergoing CRA exams were caught up in the same mechanisms that were causing the housing bubble itself.

But I think your point is fascinating because I never ever ever hear conservatives talk about the economic destruction caused by the federal government that the CRA was/is trying to help mitigate. Speaking of course about redlining, a federal policy from 1934-1968 (or 1977 according to some) that was one of the primary reasons nearly every major city in the country slowly imploded in the second half of the twentieth century. Here is one of the juiciest criticisms of the federal government possible and it never even gets a mention from conservatives around the country. It's absolutely stunning.

 

[connor_in]

Sanders Supporter Cries About Trump Voter Disagreeing With Her. LOLs Ensue… » Alex Jones' Infowars: There's a war on for your mind!


<iframe width="420" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CoAmll3ViQA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[connor_in]

 

[woolybug25]

 

[wizards8507]

Okay first, that's a lie.

Elon Musk Was an Illegal Immigrant? : snopes.com

Second, if I made a meme for every person who was ever murdered, raped, or introduced to narcotics by an illegal immigrant, it would crash the IE servers.

 

[GoIrish41]

Sanders Supporter Cries About Trump Voter Disagreeing With Her. LOLs Ensue… » Alex Jones' Infowars: There's a war on for your mind!


<iframe width="420" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CoAmll3ViQA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

It does not appear she is crying because people "disagreed with her." She seems to be sad at the lack of humanity on display by a very large group of people in this country. I agree with the sentiment, and I would guess that the majority of the country has similar feelings toward Trump and his supporters.

This is the type of guy who is using hate as an election tactic.

Trump on protester: 'I’d like to punch him in the face' - POLITICO

 

[ND NYC]

if I had to predict it today, i think one way or another, Trump will be running for president in 2016.

either as the (R) nominee...or as a ross perot/ralph nader-like self funded independent.

either scenario damn near guarantees a (D) victory in November.

buckle up it's more than likely gonna be 1992all over again...

 

[wizards8507]

if I had to predict it today, i think one way or another, Trump will be running for president in 2016.

either as the (R) nominee...or as a ross perot-like self funded independent.

either scenario damn near guarantees a (D) victory in November.

buckle up it's more than likely gonna be 1992all over again...

I don't think he'd run as an independent. Trump is a lot of things, but he's not an idiot and he's certainly not one to waste his own time or money. He would know that an independent would have no legitimate shot at winning the presidency.

Potential chaos scenario: Trump and Bernie win the nominations. Bloomberg runs third party. The Libertarian Party nominates Rand Paul or some other candidate with more legitimacy than a libertarian candidate would typically have. The anti-Trump wing of the Republican Party goes to the libertarian candidate and the anti-Bernie wing of the Democrat Party goes to Bloomberg. Madness ensues.

 

[ND NYC]

I don't think he'd run as an independent. Trump is a lot of things, but he's not an idiot and he's certainly not one to waste his own time or money. He would know that an independent would have no legitimate shot at winning the presidency.

Potential chaos scenario: Trump and Bernie win the nominations. Bloomberg runs third party. The Libertarian Party nominates Rand Paul or some other candidate with more legitimacy than a libertarian candidate would typically have. The anti-Trump wing of the Republican Party goes to the libertarian candidate and the anti-Bernie wing of the Democrat Party goes to Bloomberg. Madness ensues.

Trumps' ego/mindset is the key here.
I think he thinks he can actually become president now. he can taste it now. and to not even have a shot in nov??? is and will be completely unacceptable to him.
he would delude himself into thinking he could win in Nov.

this is hardly waste of his time and money he has never, ever had this much publicity (or fun). he enjoys all of it. "And the the brand grows on..."

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I don't think he'd run as an independent. Trump is a lot of things, but he's not an idiot and he's certainly not one to waste his own time or money. He would know that an independent would have no legitimate shot at winning the presidency.

Potential chaos scenario: Trump and Bernie win the nominations. Bloomberg runs third party. The Libertarian Party nominates Rand Paul or some other candidate with more legitimacy than a libertarian candidate would typically have. The anti-Trump wing of the Republican Party goes to the libertarian candidate and the anti-Bernie wing of the Democrat Party goes to Bloomberg. Madness ensues.

(1) Trump has spent very little money on his own campaign, because our media lavishes coverage upon him free of charge; and (2) as a narcissistic blowhard, he would absolutely run as an independent to single-handedly determine the outcome of the election, even if he didn't end up winning.

 

[wizards8507]

Trumps' ego/mindset is the key here.
I think he thinks he can actually become president now. he can taste it now. and to not even have a shot in nov??? is and will be completely unacceptable to him.
he would delude himself into thinking he could win in Nov.

this is hardly waste of his time and money he has never, ever had this much publicity (or fun). he enjoys all of it. "And the the brand grows on..."

(1) Trump has spent very little money on his own campaign, because our media lavishes coverage upon him free of charge; and (2) as a narcissistic blowhard, he would absolutely run as an independent to single-handedly determine the outcome of the election, even if he didn't end up winning.

I think his ego and narcissism are exactly the reason he wouldn't run third-party. Running and losing would be a bigger blow to his ego than simply not running.

 

[Cackalacky]

I think his ego and narcissism are exactly the reason he wouldn't run third-party. Running and losing would be a bigger blow to his ego than simply not running.

Disagree. He is SUCH a narcissist that he could easily spin a loss as a third party candidate. His mouth and his PR machine know no bounds.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Disagree. He is SUCH a narcissist that he could easily spin a loss as a third party candidate. His mouth and his PR machine know no bounds.

I'm still of the opinion that he ran knowing that he would lose. Then something funny happened on the way to the primaries...

Now he's stuck and has started to think about what would happen if he actually wins. I think he'd be fine either way and has used the race to further his brand.

 

[GoIrish41]

Third party discussion is probably moot. It does not appear that he is going to have to run as a third party candidate. He is almost certainly going to win the nomination of the GOP. And, the way it looks at this moment, he will be running against Hillary (as much as I do not want this to be so).

 

[ND NYC]

Third party discussion is probably moot. It does not appear that he is going to have to run as a third party candidate. He is almost certainly going to win the nomination of the GOP. And, the way it looks at this moment, he will be running against Hillary (as much as I do not want this to be so).

if enough (R) candidates drop out soon, I don't think he gets the nomination.
he wins with a crowded field and loses in a 2 man race...has a shot in a 3 man race depending who other two are.

 

[wizards8507]

He is almost certainly going to win the nomination of the GOP.

"Almost certainly" is a huge stretch. I'd give him the highest odds right now, but I'd still take Rubio and Cruz' combined odds over Trump's. Trump would lose probably 55-45 to either one of those guys head-to-head. It's just a matter of winnowing the field.

 

[ND NYC]

100%

Look at the image in SC last night. A popular black GOP senator and Indian descent governor who have came from nothing standing behind the son of a bartender and a maid. A man who just recently paid off his student loans and understands living paycheck to paycheck. For a party with a rich white guy perception problem.... This is the cure.

He needs to gain the Bush support and he's pretty darn good at getting endorsements. Trump is winning, but he's doing so at his ceiling. Kasich needs to take a hint and get out. Bush dumped tons of money against Rubio, so hopefully that slows down.

Cruz cannot win against Hillary and the speech last night where "defied the pundits and overcame the odds" was laughable as the pundits said this state was designed for him. He is just not like able and I think will realize his ceiling in SC too.

2016 is Rubio or bust for the GOP.

sorry just had to LOL at your take here...

 

[GoIrish41]

if enough (R) candidates drop out soon, I don't think he gets the nomination.
he wins with a crowded field and loses in a 2 man race...has a shot in a 3 man race depending who other two are.

Again ... its all about egos.

Rubio certainly isn't going to drop out right now. He's convinced that as a candidate who has not come close to winning a state yet, that he's got momentum.

Kasich isn't going to drop out until after Ohio. I just read something this morning that said Trump is now edging him in the polls.

Cruz isn't dropping out, because he has too high an opinion of himself and his chances. He's going to see what happens in his home state of Texas before he gets the message.

Carson ... I'm surprised that he hasn't dropped out already, but who knows how long he sticks around. I suspect that either after Nevada or perhaps Super Tuesday he will have no choice (and probably no money).

It's probably going at least until the end of March or the beginning of April until its a two-man race.

That's why Trump's chances look pretty good right now. The more state primary races that come and go, the more delegates he's going to stockpile.