2016 Presidential Horse Race

[phgreek]

Bill Clinton Accuses Bernie Bros of Sexism. Yes, That Bill Clinton.

Hahahahaha the irony.

did Bernie nail something he didn't? I mean in a strained way that would make Bernie the sexist in THAT particular situation...and you know Bill...whatever it takes.

 

[BGIF]

Kasich and Sanders leading in NH

Kasich and Sanders leading in NH

Early returns out of Dixville Notch has

Repubs
Kasich 3
Trump 2
Nobody else got a vote

Dems
Sanders 4
Hillary 0

 

[pkt77242]

Marco Rubio Is In A Precarious Spot In New Hampshire | FiveThirtyEight

 

[BGIF]

Bloomberg: I'm considering 2016 bid - CNNPolitics.com

By Dylan Byers, CNN
Updated 6:57 PM ET, Mon February 8, 2016

(CNN)Michael Bloomberg says he is considering running for president of the United States, a move that would dramatically shake up an already chaotic 2016 race.

In an interview with Financial Times, the media mogul and former New York City mayor said he was "looking at all the options" when asked about a possible bid.

"I'm listening to what candidates are saying and what the primary voters appear to be doing," Bloomberg said, adding that he would need to add his name on ballots by early March in order to stage a serious campaign.

The billionaire also issued his most damning indictment of the current campaigns to date.

"I find the level of discourse and discussion distressingly banal and an outrage and an insult to the voters," Bloomberg told the Financial Times, adding that the public deserved "a lot better."

"What Bloomberg told (the Financial Times) is what he's been saying privately for weeks," the source said.

The New York Times reported last month that he was considering a plan to run as an independent because he was troubled by Donald Trump's success on the Republican side, and Hillary Clinton's inability to stanch Bernie Sanders' growth on the Democratic side.

Both Trump and Sanders currently have wide leads over their respective rivals in New Hampshire, which holds the first-in-the-nation primary on Tuesday. Trump and Sanders also had strong second-place showings in the Iowa caucuses last week.

Bloomberg would run as a moderate promising to bring compromise and business savvy to an election characterized by highly charged disputes and political partisanship.

Bloomberg is seen as a pragmatist and fiscal conservative who has taken liberal positions on issues like gun control and the environment.

Donald Trump: I'd beat Bloomberg'

With a $39 billion fortune, Bloomberg is expected to self-fund his campaign and would likely spend north of $1 billion to do it.

 

[FightingIrishLover7]

Gates to run as a Democrat soon?

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

I can't really fault your reasoning for voting R (or anyone who makes a good salary for that matter). Personally, 1) I don't like to think with my pocket book. To me, politics is more than about money. It's about country. No one likes to pay higher taxes, but you know what, sometimes it's beneficial and necessary to keep progressing as a country. 2) I'm not sure that anyone really knows how much Bernie is going to increase taxes (and on whom exactly). I've seen many proposals. I've heard many counter attacks. The most recent proposal I've seen (and I don't know if it's legit) shows that most people won't be affected until you start making over $500k a year, again at $2M per year, and again at over $10M a year...and it's all marginal anyways.

I'm voting Bernie. I hit on over 90% agreement w/ him on the issues. How I view the world and the country fall right in line with the direction he wants to take it.

I'm pro-choice.
I'm pro equal rights: Women, race, religion, sexual orientation, etc
I believe healthcare, prisons, education should NOT be for-profit
I believe our government is insanely corrupt
I think the Koch brothers and those like them are anti-American
I'm pro weed, fa shizzle
I'm against yuge amounts of military spending and wars in the middle east
I'm pro increase in infrastructure spending to create jobs
Climate change is real and needs to be addressed


I will never vote for a present day Republican. They don't have the same values as those in the past. Most are bat shit crazy.

Hillary is just Obama 2.0. In fact, she's probably more right that he is. Both are center-left IMO and look out for banks and special interests. I hate that. She'd just be more of the same.

Bernie is my choice. It's clear and obvious to me.

So you want to grow the damn thing?

 

[BleedBlueGold]

So you want to grow the damn thing?

Don't act like Repubs don't want big government too. They just choose other areas.

Stay out of our lives. We don't need government telling us what to do. Unless you're a woman. I'll make it illegal for her to decide what to do with her body.

 

[connor_in]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">💕 I'm happy to b in NH w/ <a href="https://twitter.com/BernieSanders">@berniesanders</a> & to speak at the rally tonight! I will be on approx 5:50 <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/votetogether?src=hash">#votetogether</a> <a href="https://t.co/7s9JDXSfxC">pic.twitter.com/7s9JDXSfxC</a></p>— Emily Ratajkowski (@emrata) <a href="https://twitter.com/emrata/status/696815874460651522">February 8, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">5:51pm: Bill Clinton endorses Bernie Sanders <a href="https://t.co/lTfu8FjsEA">https://t.co/lTfu8FjsEA</a></p>— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) <a href="https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/696828770259443716">February 8, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Watch out, Hillary! Look who's feeling the Bern now [photo, video] - twitchy.com twitchy.com

 

[BleedBlueGold]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">💕 I'm happy to b in NH w/ <a href="https://twitter.com/BernieSanders">@berniesanders</a> & to speak at the rally tonight! I will be on approx 5:50 <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/votetogether?src=hash">#votetogether</a> <a href="https://t.co/7s9JDXSfxC">pic.twitter.com/7s9JDXSfxC</a></p>— Emily Ratajkowski (@emrata) <a href="https://twitter.com/emrata/status/696815874460651522">February 8, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">5:51pm: Bill Clinton endorses Bernie Sanders <a href="https://t.co/lTfu8FjsEA">https://t.co/lTfu8FjsEA</a></p>— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) <a href="https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/696828770259443716">February 8, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Watch out, Hillary! Look who's feeling the Bern now [photo, video] - twitchy.com twitchy.com

 

[Ndaccountant]

I can't really fault your reasoning for voting R (or anyone who makes a good salary for that matter). Personally, 1) I don't like to think with my pocket book. To me, politics is more than about money. It's about country. No one likes to pay higher taxes, but you know what, sometimes it's beneficial and necessary to keep progressing as a country. 2) I'm not sure that anyone really knows how much Bernie is going to increase taxes (and on whom exactly). I've seen many proposals. I've heard many counter attacks. The most recent proposal I've seen (and I don't know if it's legit) shows that most people won't be affected until you start making over $500k a year, again at $2M per year, and again at over $10M a year...and it's all marginal anyways.

I'm voting Bernie. I hit on over 90% agreement w/ him on the issues. How I view the world and the country fall right in line with the direction he wants to take it.

I'm pro-choice.
I'm pro equal rights: Women, race, religion, sexual orientation, etc
I believe healthcare, prisons, education should NOT be for-profit
I believe our government is insanely corrupt
I think the Koch brothers and those like them are anti-American
I'm pro weed, fa shizzle
I'm against yuge amounts of military spending and wars in the middle east
I'm pro increase in infrastructure spending to create jobs
Climate change is real and needs to be addressed


I will never vote for a present day Republican. They don't have the same values as those in the past. Most are bat shit crazy.

Hillary is just Obama 2.0. In fact, she's probably more right that he is. Both are center-left IMO and look out for banks and special interests. I hate that. She'd just be more of the same.

Bernie is my choice. It's clear and obvious to me.

I think those rates do not include his increases for things like social security, medicare for all and family leave. I believe when you add those together, along with average state income taxes, the top marginal rate would be something like 73% ( a magic tax number). Obviously higher for people that have city income taxes and higher state income taxes.
Of course, that is the $10M range, but the rates for everyone else is just as high. Saw in the WSJ recently that the rates for those making $500K-$2M would approach 65% all in. BTW, the taxes needed for medicare for all would come from mostly everyone. So it's not an entire soak the rich movement that some people believe it is and makes the chart above deceiving.

The problem with what Sanders has put out there thus far is that he and his economic advisers say they assume the new taxes will not alter behavior. They need those rates at today's income levels (and growth projections) to pay for his policy. The irony is that the 73% marginal tax rate magic number comes from a theory about changing greedy behavior. So, if the theory holds, Sanders' plan would change greed and top level income growth would cease and/or fall. But if that were to occur, he wouldn't have the revenue needed to pay for his programs.

"Orr was crazy and could be grounded. All he had to do was ask; and as soon as he did, he would no longer be crazy and would have to fly more missions. Orr would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn't, but if he was sane, he had to fly them. If he flew them, he was crazy and didn't have to; but if he didn't want to, he was sane and had to."

 

[dales5050]

Don't act like Repubs don't want big government too. They just choose other areas.

Stay out of our lives. We don't need government telling us what to do. Unless you're a woman. I'll make it illegal for her to decide what to do with her body.

I'm pro equal rights: Women, race, religion, sexual orientation, etc

Does 'etc.' mean you're for equal rights for men as well? Or are you someone who thinks that a woman should be able to have an abortion but if they decide to have the child they get all of the rights and preferential treatment in the courts when it comes to parenting and children?

Don't get me wrong, I am pro abortion rights as I do think people should be in control of their body. But I am also in favor of equality when in comes to parental rights. Sadly, the way things exist today, women legally have the ability to have their cake and eat it too.

If you're about equality...you would agree.

As for race, are you for equality or are you for inequality that is forced on some to correct inequality that happened to others?


Sorry, should have put a trigger warning at the top of the post....

 

[RDU Irish]

oh please..



Isn't that assuming the money was generated in Ireland? I am speaking towards the billions made here that is sent to tax havens, that is the practice that pisses me off. Ireland has the population of Los Angeles and on paper Apple has like $180 billion in profits just sitting there. I can't speak for Apple but Microsoft just buys super-safe US Treasuries and plays the waiting game.

Can't I claim that this hurts job growth and the middle class too?

Yeah, it does. Which is why creating incentives for companies to use the US instead of other countries to stash their cash would benefit everyone. Unfortunately, everyone includes the rich so anyone feeling the Bern hates it vehemently. Politicians probably just use the issue to ransom more lobbying money from the big companies out there.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">💕 I'm happy to b in NH w/ <a href="https://twitter.com/BernieSanders">@berniesanders</a> & to speak at the rally tonight! I will be on approx 5:50 <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/votetogether?src=hash">#votetogether</a> <a href="https://t.co/7s9JDXSfxC">pic.twitter.com/7s9JDXSfxC</a></p>— Emily Ratajkowski (@emrata) <a href="https://twitter.com/emrata/status/696815874460651522">February 8, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">5:51pm: Bill Clinton endorses Bernie Sanders <a href="https://t.co/lTfu8FjsEA">https://t.co/lTfu8FjsEA</a></p>— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) <a href="https://twitter.com/McCormackJohn/status/696828770259443716">February 8, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Watch out, Hillary! Look who's feeling the Bern now [photo, video] - twitchy.com twitchy.com

who is she besides a pretty woman? Is she the voice of some group?

 

[RDU Irish]

well...there is wisdom here. I like Kasich driving the bus...but I like Christie as the man dealing with things like entitlement reform and shrinking government...I saw an interview with Kasich where he said he is delegating the shrinkage of government to the VP...Christie is probably the best person for that job...

I have never gotten that vibe from Christie that he feels strongly about reducing the size and scope of government. AG Christie makes more sense to me, he wants to throw everyone in jail.

Rand Paul is the best man for that job, if laid out as such it would be a great way to really draw in the Libertarian wing - which is exactly why it will never happen.

Or Donald "Your Fired" Trump.

 

[kmoose]

who is she besides a pretty woman? Is she the voice of some group?

The future voice of the "I was sexually assaulted by Bill Clinton Club"?

She's a model and an actress, according to Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emily_Ratajkowski

 

[BleedBlueGold]

who is she besides a pretty woman? Is she the voice of some group?

Model/Actress with celebrity status coming out to support Bernie. A lot of his speeches have introductory speakers and some of them have been celebs. What was significant about hers was the direct dig at some of the female senators, Gloria Steinem, and Madeleine Albright, etc.

 

[wizards8507]

Donald Trump repeats vulgar word audience member uses to describe Ted Cruz - CNNPolitics.com

Cultural rot.

 

[RDU Irish]

Thoughts?

Which Republican candidates can make the flat tax work and help the economy? | Fox News

Researching Cruz's flat tax. Have to say it is a bit hidden on his website under "Jobs and Opportunity" considering he claims it is such a big part of his platform. Then I click on "Cruz Simple Flat Tax" and it loops me back to the front page. F-U Ted, fix your website!

So lacking real details, at first blush - the export tax/corporate tax seems like a backdoor tariff/VAT. Opens up all kinds of shenanigans, don't like the tax on "net business sales" versus profit. Devil in these details, you essentially remove the cap on FICA, it is all paid by the employer, effectively increase the minimum wage by 7.65% and set up the future tax code to increase corporate taxes as an easy mark. Largest corporations have the best means of lobbying for benefits and engaging in goofy accounting to avoid taxes while small businesses - especially self employed - deal with a bigger tax burden/cash drain during times of growth/unprofitability.

Individual income tax - this is a huge reduction for low income folks. With 10% tax on income over $36,000 for a family of four you are also not paying 7.65% FICA or 15.35% for self employed folks (at least those who accurately report).

Believe it or not, I think this is too skinny. Essentially moves even more of the government dependency to payroll taxes. Not a fan of taxing the behavior you should be trying to cultivate.

 

[connor_in]

who is she besides a pretty woman? Is she the voice of some group?

Model/Actress with celebrity status coming out to support Bernie. A lot of his speeches have introductory speakers and some of them have been celebs. What was significant about hers was the direct dig at some of the female senators, Gloria Steinem, and Madeleine Albright, etc.

Was in Blurred Lines video sans top. Another item of significance is that HRC is trying to assume the womens vote (see Madeline Albright recent item, many young women are put off by her and going to Bernie) and her supporters have used Bernie Bros as derogatory term for all the men flocking to Bernie's campaign. The more pop culture women Bernie gets the better for his campaign.

Plus she's way hot, thus the joke tweet of ER speaks at 5:50, at 5:51 Bill endorese Bernie too

 

[wizards8507]

Researching Cruz's flat tax. Have to say it is a bit hidden on his website under "Jobs and Opportunity" considering he claims it is such a big part of his platform. Then I click on "Cruz Simple Flat Tax" and it loops me back to the front page. F-U Ted, fix your website!

So lacking real details, at first blush - the export tax/corporate tax seems like a backdoor tariff/VAT. Opens up all kinds of shenanigans, don't like the tax on "net business sales" versus profit. Devil in these details, you essentially remove the cap on FICA, it is all paid by the employer, effectively increase the minimum wage by 7.65% and set up the future tax code to increase corporate taxes as an easy mark. Largest corporations have the best means of lobbying for benefits and engaging in goofy accounting to avoid taxes while small businesses - especially self employed - deal with a bigger tax burden/cash drain during times of growth/unprofitability.

Individual income tax - this is a huge reduction for low income folks. With 10% tax on income over $36,000 for a family of four you are also not paying 7.65% FICA or 15.35% for self employed folks (at least those who accurately report).

Believe it or not, I think this is too skinny. Essentially moves even more of the government dependency to payroll taxes. Not a fan of taxing the behavior you should be trying to cultivate.

I really hate the shift of payroll taxes to the employer. It's nothing but gimmick that fosters more economic ignorance, and Rand Paul tried the same thing. Right now, the employee pays half and the employer pays half, but the economic burden is all borne by the employee because it suppresses their base salary. If the tax shifts nominally to the employer, the only change that's going to happen is that workers are going to see a corresponding reduction in their wage rate. It's not going to help take-home pay at all, except for a short-term blip while human resources departments play catchup.

EDIT: I'll throw in a very simple example to illustrate my point.

- Your employer decides that you're worth $10 per hour. The government wants a 20% payroll tax.

• If the payroll tax is borne by the employee, the employer pays you the $10 you're worth and you send $2 to the government. You take home $8.
• If the tax is split between the employee and the employer, the employer sends $1 to the government and is then only willing to pay you a $9 wage. You send $1 to the government and take home $8.
• If the tax is paid by the employer, the employer sends $2 to the government only offers you a wage of $8. You take home $8.

 

[connor_in]

Even if Kasich and Christie do well here, do they have much chance going forward? Things I have read on left and right sites seem to agree that neither has much money and neither has much structural organization in most other states.

 

[wizards8507]

Even if Kasich and Christie do well here, do they have much chance going forward? Things I have read on left and right sites seem to agree that neither has much money and neither has much structural organization in most other states.

They'd probably have to combine their doing well with Bush and/or Rubio doing poorly to see a significant bump in fundraising.

 

[Irish4Life09]

Can I ask you Bernie supporters an honest question?
-Why do you support a candidate that clearly shows no knowledge of economics or money in general?

 

[RDU Irish]

Can I ask you Bernie supporters an honest question?
-Why do you support a candidate that clearly shows no knowledge of economics or money in general?

You could ask the same question of pretty much all the candidates. Economic literacy is almost an albatross in politics.

 

[wizards8507]

Can I ask you Bernie supporters an honest question?

-Why do you support a candidate that clearly shows no knowledge of economics or money in general?

I won't answer for Bernie supports on this board, but I think for most Bernie supporters out in the world, the answer is that they have no knowledge of economics or money either.

Bernie's supporters are millennials and college students. They've never made a household budget, and the vast majority have never taken an economics course.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I think those rates do not include his increases for things like social security, medicare for all and family leave. I believe when you add those together, along with average state income taxes, the top marginal rate would be something like 73% ( a magic tax number). Obviously higher for people that have city income taxes and higher state income taxes.
Of course, that is the $10M range, but the rates for everyone else is just as high. Saw in the WSJ recently that the rates for those making $500K-$2M would approach 65% all in. BTW, the taxes needed for medicare for all would come from mostly everyone. So it's not an entire soak the rich movement that some people believe it is and makes the chart above deceiving.

You're right, that chart is only for income taxes.

Bernie wants to raise the cap on Soc Sec to $250,000. No where have I seen that he's going to raise the SS tax rate. It's currently 6.2% on the first $118,500.

State taxes, as you said, will depend on which state you live in. Seven states pay no state income tax, seven states have a flat tax rate of around 5% or less, and outside of CA/HI/OR the marginal tax rates are below 10% (way below that in some).

Medicare for all will be another payroll tax. 6.2% will fall on the employer and 2.2% will fall on the employee. (But people always fail to understand the savings on premiums, deductibles, co-pays, prescriptions, etc. It's important to note those savings).

Your magic number of 73% is sort of correct: 1) It's literally only for deca-millionaires in CA and 2) the 6.2% isn't on the 10s of millions, it's on the first $250,000. The effective SS rate on deca millionaires is 0.155%. So add up 52% fed income, 13.3% state income, 2.2% medicare, and 0.155% social security and that magic number is actually 67.66%....again, for the highest income earners in CA. Factor in healthcare cost savings and that number will be a little lower.

It's funny because the media is throwing out 70%, 80%, 90% tax rates like candy to get everyone to believe that's what will happen. Not only is it not true, but they don't inform people 1) cumulative taxes and 2) how to figure out what you'll pay. I get so pissed when I hear some schmuck who works for minimum wage say "I'm not paying 90% in taxes because of some socialist!" I just shake my head.

My cumulative marginal tax rate will be around 40%. The effective rate will be much lower. The average rate even lower. And my wife and I make more than double the average household income in this country.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I won't answer for Bernie supports on this board, but I think for most Bernie supporters out in the world, the answer is that they have no knowledge of economics or money either.

Bernie's supporters are millennials and college students. They've never made a household budget, and the vast majority have never taken an economics course.

This is laughably wrong.

https://berniesanders.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Wall-St-Letter-1.pdf

 

[wizards8507]

Bernie wants to raise the cap on Soc Sec to $250,000. No where have I seen that he's going to raise the SS tax rate. It's currently 6.2% on the first $118,500.

That's fine and dandy when you're talking about regular wage-earners, but 70% of US businesses are sole proprietors. Sole proprietors pay their business taxes with their personal income taxes on the same 1040 as wage-earners. What you're describing is a substantial tax increase on small business owners, i.e. job creators.

My cumulative marginal tax rate will be around 40%. The effective rate will be much lower. The average rate even lower. And my wife and I make more than double the average household income in this country.

Effective tax rate and average tax rate are the same thing.

I get so pissed when I hear some schmuck who works for minimum wage say "I'm not paying 90% in taxes because of some socialist!" I just shake my head.

See, this is the problem. People are voting for what's best for them and they don't give a shit about the underlying principles. It would be great for ME AND MY FAMILY if someone proposed a government subsidy for stay-at-home mothers. But if some politician went around promising to pay stay-at-home mothers $30,000 per year, I'd categorically oppose it.

This is laughably wrong.

https://berniesanders.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Wall-St-Letter-1.pdf

Lmao in a country of 300 million people, 170 of them endorse Bernie Sanders. Among this list of "economic experts" are adjunct faculty at community colleges. Color me amazed.

 

[dales5050]

This is laughably wrong.

https://berniesanders.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Wall-St-Letter-1.pdf

This is support for just one aspect of his plan. Personally, this is one thing that everyone should support. We would be much better off if we went back to having regional banks rather than these monstrosities.

The legislation that's needed to reform this and the legislation that allowed for the mess to happen came from Congress. It's going to take Congress, not the President, to make these changes. Sure the POTUS could call for it and put public pressure on it...but that's just not how the sausage is made.


That said, when wizards8507 said:

Bernie's supporters are millennials and college students. They've never made a household budget, and the vast majority have never taken an economics course.

I think he was talking about the plans to make college free for everyone and expanding health insurance coverage by taxing the rich. These two plans are not based on an reality that someone with a basic understanding of economics AND who would not benefit from said growth would be in favor of.

At least that's how I took it.

 

[NDVirginia19]