Probability of BK getting JSmith & KRussell to stay

[IRISH in MT]

Some of the best recruits over the past few years are the NFL caliber players BK has talked into staying one more year. I know Fuller is staying so outside of losing Day and Stanley, the return of Smith and Russell would greatly reduce the loss of those 2 studs.

Is there really any chance Jaylon and Keivarae will pass up the NFL draft and stay for one last chance at a National Championship?

Will Jaylon and Keivarae have their degrees by May?

(Jaylon staying to pursue a NC is my Christmas wish this year...)

 

[IrishLax]

1. People should not count on Will Fuller staying. The reporter sort of backed him into a corner with a really premature question. In f act, I'd strongly bet he declares.

2. It's not Kelly's job to talk anyone into staying if it's against their best interest. I don't want him pitching Jaylon to stay just to stay, I want them to have an honest conversation and see where that goes. That's how things went with Floyd, Manti, Martin, Stanley, etc. they presented all of the facts (in those cases, why it made sense for them to come for draft stock and such) and it worked out great for all of them. If the facts say Jaylon is near his peak of draft stock, than he should leave unless he - personally - values other goals.

3. I'm not sure KVR has the option to return.

 

[goldandblue]

i'm not sure how keeping Smith or Russell (Defense) has anything to do with minimizing the loss of Stanley (Offense). I think that Smith will come back before Russell but my guess is neither come back. After watching guys drop like flies this year, I would say both are going to go while the going is good.

 

[zelezo vlk]

1. People should not count on Will Fuller staying. The reporter sort of backed him into a corner with a really premature question. In f act, I'd strongly bet he declares.

2. It's not Kelly's job to talk anyone into staying if it's against their best interest. I don't want him pitching Jaylon to stay just to stay, I want them to have an honest conversation and see where that goes. That's how things went with Floyd, Manti, Martin, Stanley, etc. they presented all of the facts (in those cases, why it made sense for them to come for draft stock and such) and it worked out great for all of them. If the facts say Jaylon is near his peak of draft stock, than he should leave unless he - personally - values other goals.

3. I'm not sure KVR has the option to return.

This is not at all what I heard about the announcement. I can't find a video of the interview, can you give a source?

 

[Irishnuke]

They're gone. Time to get used to it.

 

[Grahambo]

This is not at all what I heard about the announcement. I can't find a video of the interview, can you give a source?

Yeah, I thought Irish Illustrated guys had said that the reporter, maybe it was an II guy, actually gave Will Fuller a chance to rethink his answer to which he declined to change.

 

[Grahambo]

They're gone. Time to get used to it.

This.

If Jaylon is a Top 10 pick, heck, Top 20, he should go. No problem with what he decides though.

 

[Irish YJ]

KVR should stay for his own benefit... Won't be a first rounder. Needs to strengthen his stock in a big way. IMO, draft stock dropped a ton this year.

Jaylon will be a top 10 guy, and should go, especially if he is on track for his degree.

 

[IrishLax]

This is not at all what I heard about the announcement. I can't find a video of the interview, can you give a source?

Fuller made a comment, and then was pressed with something like "so that means you're coming back next year?" and then gave an affirmative. Almost immediately afterwards when Kelly was asked about it he told people to cool their jets and said that he and Will "still needed to have those conversations."

Everything I know about his situation leads me to believe that he is likely leaving, and within minutes after he made the initial comments he did people close to him did not exactly affirm what he said.

 

[NDRock]

I think Jaylon needs to come back to prove his success was not just the product of Schmidt carrying the load for him.

 

[tussin]

It's a shame if/when Jaylon leaves because I feel like we never got to see a style of play that highlighted his athletic abilities. It seemed like he was always in positions where he had to clean up for Joe instead of constantly attacking the backfield. I could be wrong but that's my untrained observation.

 

[IrishinSyria]

The only reason I see Fuller possibly coming back is because his problems with drops are going to wreck his stock. That being said, you can teach hands but you can't teach speed, and maybe he'll figure a team will be willing to take a chance on him after such an explosive year.

I put 0% faith in anything a player says before the deadline to declare. Elliot got reamed for saying he was going to leave Ohio State before the season was over, and rightly so. ND guys are smart enough to keep the focus on the season while the season is still going.

edit to clarify: I 100% believe that Fuller believed he was staying when he made that comment. It was mid-season, things were going well, he was focused on making the playoffs. Once the season is over, he'll sit down and reevaluate. Like Lax said, part of Kelly's job is to make him think about it.

 

[aubeirish]

I think Jaylon needs to come back to prove his success was not just the product of Schmidt carrying the load for him.

This made me laugh. Thanks.

 

[kmoose]

The only reason I see Fuller possibly coming back is because his problems with drops are going to wreck his stock. That being said, you can teach hands but you can't teach speed, and maybe he'll figure a team will be willing to take a chance on him after such an explosive year.

I put 0% faith in anything a player says before the deadline to declare. Elliot got reamed for saying he was going to leave Ohio State before the season was over, and rightly so. ND guys are smart enough to keep the focus on the season while the season is still going.

Fuller is going to have a hard time transitioning into the NFL, if he doesn't learn to catch the ball with his hands. And this is going to be a glaring issue for NFL teams. I would not be surprised to see him come back at all.

 

[GBdomer]

I want Jaylon to pull a Manti but you don't turn down a chance to be a lock in the top 10. So happy for Jaylon, couldn't be happier with what he has done for this program and the man he has become.

KVR loves ND and worked his ass off to get back here and never complained or asked anyone to feel bad for him. He's an elite talent but he has definitely rusty this year. I could see him returning just because everything he did to get back to ND I think he wants to finish what he started.

Will Fuller he gone, should come back and tune his skills up. But he's not gonna grow hands all of a sudden this off season. He is who he is. He is big time when the game matters and when we need a play then he disappears for quarters

 

[stlnd01]

Everything I know about his situation leads me to believe that he is likely leaving, and within minutes after he made the initial comments he did people close to him did not exactly affirm what he said.

Does that include his persistent case of the dropsies?
I mean, Fuller's a great vertical receiver but he could get better in other aspects of his game. Is he a first round pick right now?
I agree his "announcement" the other week seemed premature and I wouldn't assume it means he's staying. But I don't know why I'd bet on him leaving either.

As for KVR, he may be gone in his head, but if he can come back it'd probably benefit him. And Jaylon, I don't know that he can boost his draft stock any higher. But the guy always cited Manti as a role model and look what he did his senior year. I wouldn't count any of them out, especially given Kelly's track record in this department.

 

[gkIrish]

I think it's easier to justify a top 10-20 pick staying to get his degree now that these insurance options are available. I'm sure a policy would be taken out on Jaylon if he decided to stay and this would minimize any financial impact falling in the draft or getting hurt would have.

In the past I would say he should definitely leave if he was a top 10 pick. Now I'm not so sure.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Fuller is going to have a hard time transitioning into the NFL, if he doesn't learn to catch the ball with his hands. And this is going to be a glaring issue for NFL teams. I would not be surprised to see him come back at all.

same page. But that's a talk he will have in the future with people he trusts. Will Fuller does not- can not- know if he's coming back right now.

 

[IrishinSyria]

I think it's easier to justify a top 10-20 pick staying to get his degree now that these insurance options are available. I'm sure a policy would be taken out on Jaylon if he decided to stay and this would minimize any financial impact falling in the draft or getting hurt would have.

In the past I would say he should definitely leave if he was a top 10 pick. Now I'm not so sure.

How much do the insurance contracts really cover though? Honest question, I have no idea.

 

[dang227]

How much do the insurance contracts really cover though? Honest question, I have no idea.

I think that Corner the Browns drafted out of Oregon received 3 million because he dropped out the first round.


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[irishfan]

This.

If Jaylon is a Top 10 pick, heck, Top 20, he should go. No problem with what he decides though.

Not necessarily with Jaylon. It seems safe to stay to avoid an injury, but there is a big difference in how much he can make by staying. Let's say he leaves this year and is the #10 pick. He would lose out on nearly $10 million if he is able to up his draft stock to being a top-3 pick.

Todd Gurley was the 10th pick and got a 4-year deal for $13,823,183 with $9,376,550 guaranteed.

Dante Fowler was the 3rd pick and got a 4-year deal for $23,490,253 with it fully guaranteed.

 

[gkIrish]

How much do the insurance contracts really cover though? Honest question, I have no idea.

I think they cover the value of your expected earnings. Think of it like disability insurance. It pays what you would otherwise receive if you were working (or maybe ~70% of what you would earn).

I don't see Jaylon's stock value dropping too much. If he were to get hurt that would be unfortunate and probably cost him some money but you could argue that would be offset by the value of a degree and the chance to win a championship and potentially become a top 5 pick.

 

[MNIrishman]

It's a shame if/when Jaylon leaves because I feel like we never got to see a style of play that highlighted his athletic abilities. It seemed like he was always in positions where he had to clean up for Joe instead of constantly attacking the backfield. I could be wrong but that's my untrained observation.

This is how I always felt about our favorite Diaco recruit from PA.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

I think Jaylon will leave, have freakish combine numbers, and have a shot at being top 5. I'd be shocked if he stayed.

 

[Irish Insanity]

You can come back for your degree anytime. If the possibility of a decent pick is there, you gotta go. If you're smart enough to get in to ND, you better be smart enough to know when to leave.

 

[stlnd01]

You can come back for your degree anytime. If the possibility of a decent pick is there, you gotta go. If you're smart enough to get in to ND, you better be smart enough to know when to leave.

You can, but most don't. Even at NOtre Dame. And you can't cone back to be a senior captain and play try with your best friends To win a national championship. Corny as it sounds, these things do seem to matter to a significant percentage of elite college football players.

 

[kmoose]

If you're smart enough to get in to ND, you better be smart enough to know when to leave.

Someone forgot to tell Darius Walker that.

 

[GoldenDomer]

Team #128 could be truly special with Will and Jaylon.

 

[IrishinSyria]

I think they cover the value of your expected earnings. Think of it like disability insurance. It pays what you would otherwise receive if you were working (or maybe ~70% of what you would earn).

I don't see Jaylon's stock value dropping too much. If he were to get hurt that would be unfortunate and probably cost him some money but you could argue that would be offset by the value of a degree and the chance to win a championship and potentially become a top 5 pick.

Fuck, also to just get a bucketload of money and never have to work again.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

I get the whole insurance thing, but hate the idea of it. What kind of loser would never work as an adult because at the age of 22 they got hurt playing football?

A degree should be considered the real insurance, and that can be obtained at any age. Go pro when you can, take in that cash, and then get the diploma after if the cash runs out. Don't be Al Bundy.....