College Football Playoff Rankings 2015 (ND #8...)

[NDgradstudent]

For the OU v ND argument:

If Temple, Pitt, and Navy win out and ND beats Stanford, Notre Dame will finish with at least 3 (likely 4) wins against teams that finished in the committee's Top 25, as opposed to OU who would need TCU to beat Baylor to have a shot at having 3 wins against teams that finished in the committees Top 25. (Or I suppose the committee could put Tennessee in there, don't know exactly where they rank the Vols.)

I guess what I'm saying is that we need to root HEAVILY for Navy, Pittsburgh, and Temple.

If they all win out (which they should all be favored in their games), our resume is just flat better than OU's. We would have 4 wins against final Top 25 teams. We would have the head-to-head comparative against Texas. AND we would have the better loss BY FAR, 2 points at #1 Clemson v Unranked (likely) Bowl Inelligble Texas.

That sounds right to me. Hopefully USC wins too.

 

[BeauBenken]

And just for note, had USC won, we could've finished with 5 FINAL Top 25 wins. And I don't think any other team in the nation would be able to come close to that number.

Thanks a ton, USC. :banghead2

 

[irishfanjho15]

I think something being lost in all this discussion is that since Clemson, we have had one game (Temple) that was in doubt at the end. Navy wasn't close, USC was over when we took the lead, Pitt was a never really close, nor was Wake and the BC game was never in doubt. Only Temple. The coaches on the committee will know this from watching the games. I think we'll be fine.

 

[gkIrish]

I think something being lost in all this discussion is that since Clemson, we have had one game (Temple) that was in doubt at the end. Navy wasn't close, USC was over when we took the lead, Pitt was a never really close, nor was Wake and the BC game was never in doubt. Only Temple. The coaches on the committee will know this from watching the games. I think we'll be fine.

You didn't think the game was ever in doubt last night? They were one onside kick away from having to go 30 yards in 40 seconds for the winning field goal. I think they had some timeouts too.

 

[NDgradstudent]

You didn't think the game was ever in doubt last night? They were one onside kick away from having to go 30 yards in 40 seconds for the winning field goal. I think they had some timeouts too.

Tying field goal, but yeah. 1993 death was in my mind. Last night was definitely in doubt.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

You didn't think the game was ever in doubt last night? They were one onside kick away from having to go 30 yards in 40 seconds for the winning field goal. I think they had some timeouts too.

A field goal would only have tied the game. Not that the distinction matters that much.

I know it's a subjective standard but I never really felt the game was in doubt. I was white-knuckle through most of the Navy game...

 

[irishfanjho15]

I think it will be;

1. Clemson
2. Bama
3. ND
4. Oklahoma

5. Baylor
6. Sparty

 

[gkIrish]

A field goal would only have tied the game.

Tying field goal, but yeah. 1993 death was in my mind. Last night was definitely in doubt.

Yeah tying my bad.

 

[pkt77242]

I think it will be;

1. Clemson
2. Bama
3. ND
4. Oklahoma

5. Baylor
6. Sparty

Where is Iowa?

 

[irishfanjho15]

You didn't think the game was ever in doubt last night? They were one onside kick away from having to go 30 yards in 40 seconds for the winning field goal. I think they had some timeouts too.

I mean I get there was a chance but it wasn't going to happen. Onside kicks don't make me doubt the outcome unless they recover them. I guess I just played too much football to have much faith in onside kicks.

But if it was in doubt, then four of NDs last six games have not been. Including wins against traditional rivals Navy, USC, and Pitt. Navy and Pitt are very good teams. And USC can beat anyone, just depends what team shows up (i.e. Talent). Wake was a snoozer but never close. Temple is a top 20-25 team. And BC is a hated rival, slighted by Boston circumstance. It's really not as bad as everyone is making it. I mean I was pissed all game, but it doesn't change the fact that ND was solidly #4 last week and probably be 3 or 4 this week.

 

[NDgradstudent]

I've been looking at how the committee has treated teams that win by a TD or less against sub-500 opponents.

Here is a list of such games since the first CFB rankings came out:

OK State beats Iowa State 35-31: rises from 8 to 6
Michigan beats Indiana 48-41 (OT): rises from 14 to 12
Iowa beats Minnesota 40-35: stays at 5
Florida beats Vandy 9-7: drops from 10 to 11
TCU beats Kansas 23-17: drops from 15 to 18
Northwestern beats Purdue 21-14: drops from 18 to 20

I probably missed one, so please mention it below and I'll adjust this.

I think the lesson is that it is very unpredictable, but that higher ranked teams (OK State, Iowa) are given more leeway to have one of these games. Alas, they also seem to give more leeway to a team if they scored a bunch of points in their ugly win.

 

[NDPhilly]

Alabama's best win is a 3 loss downward spiraling LSU team and everyone just glosses over it.

 

[connor_in]

Most chaotic scenario possible:

Bama loses to Auburn
Florida loses to FSU
OSU loses to scUM
Iowa loses to Nebraska
MSU loses to Penn State
ND loses to Stanford
Clemson loses to South Carolina
Baylor loses to TCU
Oklahoma loses to Okie Light

That would probably be the best weekend of football in the history of the sport, minus the one obvious team losing of course.

You're the kind of guy that can recite from memory the rules to rock, paper,scissors, lizard, Spock aren't you?

 

[yankeehater]

It may have been during the BCS era, but I remember them saying they do factor in injuries when ranking/picking the teams. Does anyone believe the committee will overlook all of ND's injuries to critical players?

BTW....after last night I do not feel ND is passing the eye test currently. I love the team, but would not put them in my top 4.

 

[IrishLax]

It may have been during the BCS era, but I remember them saying they do factor in injuries when ranking/picking the teams. Does anyone believe the committee will overlook all of ND's injuries to critical players?

BTW....after last night I do not feel ND is passing the eye test currently. I love the team, but would not put them in my top 4.

The weird thing is, who would you put in over them? Clemson and Bama are givens. ND played Clemson more than even though...

Iowa? Hasn't played anyone, and is not good by most advanced metrics. Certainly doesn't "wow" or pass the "eye test."

Big 12? There's a strong counter argument against every team in that conference.

Michigan State? Has played like ass all year, but somehow has the best wins of anyone right now.

 

[NCND]

The weird thing is, who would you put in over them? Clemson and Bama are givens. ND played Clemson more than even though...

Iowa? Hasn't played anyone, and is not good by most advanced metrics. Certainly doesn't "wow" or pass the "eye test."

Big 12? There's a strong counter argument against every team in that conference.

Michigan State? Has played like ass all year, but somehow has the best wins of anyone right now.

Iowa hasn't played anyone? Who has ND played and beat that's impressive?

 

[MNIrishman]

Iowa hasn't played anyone? Who has ND played and beat that's impressive?

We've played Clemson, a team that would beat Iowa by 4 TD's, and looked impressive even in a loss. Iowa has looked crappy in a lot of their games this season. They only beat a bad MN squad by 5 points at home (which is comparable to our BC win, even though that was kinda sorta a road game). For common opponents, we both played Pitt, and we did a lot better, winning by 12 instead of Iowa's 3.

 

[IrishLax]

Iowa hasn't played anyone? Who has ND played and beat that's impressive?

Nice qualifier "and beat." ND's strength of schedule as of last committee reveal was 30+ spots higher than Iowa's. But sure, let's play your game.

Navy is better than anyone Iowa has beat. Temple is ranked higher than Wisconsin, Iowa's only other win of note besides Northwestern (the only ranked team they've played). ND and Iowa both beat Pittsburgh... ND destroyed them, Iowa needed a miracle last second field goal.

 

[gkIrish]

We've played Clemson, a team that would beat Iowa by 4 TD's, and looked impressive even in a loss. Iowa has looked crappy in a lot of their games this season. They only beat a bad MN squad by 5 points at home (which is comparable to our BC win, even though that was kinda sorta a road game). For common opponents, we both played Pitt, and we did a lot better, winning by 12 instead of Iowa's 3.

Clemson has only beat one P5 opponent by 4 TDs (Miami).

 

[Irish Insanity]

Oklahoma barely won at home against a team who just lost their star qb, star wr, and center. Their defense was already a shell. Oklahoma didn't impress me at all.

And may have lost if not for a failed 2 pt attempt.

Just saw Heather Dinich has:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Michigan State
4. Oklahoma

Time to wave the white flag, an ugly woman has spoken.

I don't get all the MSU love. I mean they'll climb pretty high, but 10 spots? Just because they beat OSU, who everyone has seemed to believe has been overrated all year. They lost to Nebraska, barely beat Rutgers, and only beat UofM on a fluke play.

Where is Iowa?

They are apparently going to fall with a win and someone ahead of them in their own conference loosing...........

 

[Irish Insanity]

Alabama's best win is a 3 loss downward spiraling LSU team and everyone just glosses over it.

Exactly. And they have a home loss.

 

[ShawneeIrish]

I think MSU now has an inside track to one of the playoff spots. Clemson and Bama are both a given if theu dont lose. I think the last spot comes down to us and Oklahoma if we can manage to beat Stanford. In that scenario I think its a total toss up.

 

[MNIrishman]

Clemson has only beat one P5 opponent by 4 TDs (Miami).

Hyperbole but I still think Iowa is Charmin soft.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Good thoughts here. My question mainly hinges on how far they fall and what happens next week and are they in a good enough position to win out and still get there. They are still an 10-1 defending national champion. I think.the committee shows them a bunch of respect. I hope I am wrong but I have a hard time.seeing how the committee fully shuts the door on them.

I understand and I want to sit on rusty metal, especially after the BC game, but you have to stop emotionally abusing yourself that way, brother!

Ohio State didn't just derail yesterday, the boiler burst and they blew the tracks off of the right away!

What Zeke and Gage did yesterday will fuck up a team put together by a coach of Meyer's moral makeup. They got no overarching character to rely upon. Nothing. Just dumb-assed assistants. Luke Fickle isn't enough. He and Urbie already can't stand each other!

I would be less surprised to see tOSU (hypothetically) drop both, than win both. But if they don't win in AA next Saturday, they won't play for the championship, and I would expect to see pigs fly before a two loss B1GOT team that doesn't even win the division within the conference, get an invite to the playoff!

 

[IrishinSyria]

Alabama's best win is a 3 loss downward spiraling LSU team and everyone just glosses over it.

I think teams (rightfully) get some credit for starting the downward spiral, but yeah... Bama's schedule is not exactly good. I think Tennessee might actually be their best won though.

 

[IrishinSyria]

I understand and I want to sit on rusty metal, especially after the BC game, but you have to stop emotionally abusing yourself that way, brother!

Ohio State didn't just derail yesterday, the boiler burst and they blew the tracks off of the right away!

What Zeke and Gage did yesterday will fuck up a team put together by a coach of Meyer's moral makeup. They got no overarching character to rely upon. Nothing. Just dumb-assed assistants. Luke Fickle isn't enough. He and Urbie already can't stand each other!

I would be less surprised to see tOSU (hypothetically) drop both, than win both. But if they don't win in AA next Saturday, they won't play for the championship, and I would expect to see pigs fly before a two loss B1GOT team that doesn't even win the division within the conference, get an invite to the playoff!

Sparty holds the tiebreaker, right? I'm pretty sure Ohio State no longer controls their fate in the B1G.

 

[MNIrishman]

Exactly. And they have a home loss.

A home loss to a bad Ole Miss team. IDK why they've gotten #1 votes two years in a row. They're Ole freaking Miss. If MN did that (a team that historically has actually shown that at one time it WAS capable of being a great team, unlike Ole Miss), they wouldn't get #1 votes. It's like last year when I said MSU was better than either Ms St or Ole Miss and NDinLA laid the wood on me. The Mississippi teams have always been mediocre to terrible and always will be mediocre to terrible. Racism, bag men, and fried chicken aren't how you put together national championships. Well, maybe bag men help.

 

[BeauBenken]

Alabama's best win is a 3 loss downward spiraling LSU team and everyone just glosses over it.

Legit, I'm not certain any team that Bama has beaten will finish in the final Top 25.

I would bet that one or two do because self-fulfilling prophecy and the committee has to make a good reason for Bama's ranking.

A note though, I do think Bama is a damn good team, but it can definitely be argued that we have the better resume.

 

[FearTheBeard]

Is there any scenario MSU can even play for the BIG 10 championship? I thought theyre out on that. If they cant win the big10 i dont see how theyre getting in the playoff barring a bunch of other teams ahead losing

 

[Buster Bluth]

Is there any scenario MSU can even play for the BIG 10 championship? I thought theyre out on that. If they cant win the big10 i dont see how theyre getting in the playoff barring a bunch of other teams ahead losing

Yeah: beat Penn State.