2016 Presidential Horse Race

2016 Presidential Horse Race


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GoIrish41

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Well there is a lot to question but I don't see that as improbable. He is peppering my tv with adds every break. Probably saw 18 commercials during the ND game yesterday. Even more today during NFL. One of them said his nickname was Veto Corleone and he would "whack" any bills he did not want. Lol. Nice imagery there Bush.

He will probably be the candidate IMO.

I don't know. I'm not getting the commercials in PA, but he's got a lot of ground to cover to get to where Carson and Trump are and if those two fall off their votes are likely to go to Cruz or Rubio (to a lesser extent). He better get a whole lot better at campaigning because most of the polling indicates voters are looking in other directions and his only momentum is in the wrong direction. Your ads tell me is is drawing his line in the sand in SC. I guess we will know soon enough.
 

IrishJayhawk

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I don't know. I'm not getting the commercials in PA, but he's got a lot of ground to cover to get to where Carson and Trump are and if those two fall off their votes are likely to go to Cruz or Rubio (to a lesser extent). He better get a whole lot better at campaigning because most of the polling indicates voters are looking in other directions and his only momentum is in the wrong direction. Your ads tell me is is drawing his line in the sand in SC. I guess we will know soon enough.

Rubio commercials are all over my Facebook feed. I'd put money there (if I were to put money anywhere). But who knows...?
 

GoIrish41

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Rubio commercials are all over my Facebook feed. I'd put money there (if I were to put money anywhere). But who knows...?

I honestly think he would be their most electable candidate .... Unless he is forced too far right in the primaries. Even as their best chance, though, it is hard to imagine a GOP win in the general election.
 

IrishJayhawk

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I honestly think he would be their most electable candidate .... Unless he is forced too far right in the primaries. Even as their best chance, though, it is hard to imagine a GOP win in the general election.

Like McCain, he's already been forced to run away from his own immigration plan. And he gets thirsty...so thirsty...

<iframe src="//giphy.com/embed/fpIgACi73s4x2" width="480" height="269" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="http://giphy.com/gifs/politics-gop-marco-rubio-fpIgACi73s4x2">via GIPHY</a></p>
 

IrishJayhawk

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dshans

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Been steering clear of this thread, but a few IPAs and a few George Dickel #8s into the evening, I couldn't resist this oh-so-(very, very) wrong yet-oh-so-appropriate song to sum up portions of this (and just about any other) Presidential "horse race":

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_tuu5YtkPIo" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
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IrishJayhawk

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Been steering clear of this thread, but a few IPAs and a few George Dickel #8s into the evening, I couldn't resist this oh-so-wrong yet-oh-so-appropriate song to sum up portions of this (and just about any other) Presidential "horse race":

Oh...please comment more... :)
 

ACamp1900

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That video totally reminds me of the DNC pretending to give a shit...
 

BleedBlueGold

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Not directed at you, personally, but used your post because of the link to the article....

Why do people freak out when Christians talk about spreading the word of God and trying to bring people "into the fold", but people accept Mormon missions as just a regular part of life?

Based on personal experience only: Most of the Evangelical Christians I know are very pushy and judgmental if you are not of their faith. I only know a few Mormons, none of whom cared one way or the other what I believed. Broad answer, I know, but perhaps others have had the same experience.
 

GoIrish41

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Not directed at you, personally, but used your post because of the link to the article....

Why do people freak out when Christians talk about spreading the word of God and trying to bring people "into the fold", but people accept Mormon missions as just a regular part of life?

I think the issue with the article is that she is predicting that Jesus will return in 40 years, not that she is trying to convert people to Christianity. It's just another crazy Bachmann pronouncement supported only by her bizarre belief system and her lazy interpretation of world events.

My personal feelings about "recruitment" of people into one faith or the other is that everyone is free to believe what they wish. I don't really get why it is so important for them to make others believe what they believe. It strikes me as a business plan to keep those offering plates stuffed full on Sundays -- but as you may guess, I'm not big on organized religion so I may not be giving the phenomena a fair review.
 

phgreek

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Not directed at you, personally, but used your post because of the link to the article....

Why do people freak out when Christians talk about spreading the word of God and trying to bring people "into the fold", but people accept Mormon missions as just a regular part of life?

....really good question. It is odd because the proper name for the Mormon church is The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints...Latter Day means ????

anyway, as to the "pass" Mormon missionaries get...I think it has something to do with Mormon missionaries generally being kids...Most people still have enough sense to know a kid on a faith based mission is better than a kid stealing their car radio...ie, I think people may disagree with their teachings, but they could be doing a hell of a lot worse as an 18-21 y/o. I know I was...from a spiritual perspective (I liked my booze and women)

More generally as relates to faith intolerance...People who lacked faith used to be reasonable...and they respectfully allowed for others to do their thing without interjecting their opinion on faith. Now the faithless are largely like being around someone who has "Quit" something you still do....completely obnoxious and judgmental (The Irony in my last couple statements is not unknown to me BTW).
 

bobbyok1

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Based on personal experience only: Most of the Evangelical Christians I know are very pushy and judgmental if you are not of their faith. I only know a few Mormons, none of whom cared one way or the other what I believed. Broad answer, I know, but perhaps others have had the same experience.

As a Christian and pastor of those who put their faith in Jesus, I want to offer an apology for those you encountered who treated you without respect for your personal dignity and your God given choice to decide the life you will live. That is not the example Jesus modeled, nor is it one we as Christians should emulate. So again, as little as it might mean in this format, I nonetheless offer an apology and ask your forgiveness on behalf of those who follow Jesus as their God.

Related to this, I want to say there are many people who associate themselves with the Christian faith, and for the sake of this conversation evangelical Christians, who are nothing more than wolves in sheep clothing, to borrow a biblical metaphor. They simply want power, control and wealth and totally miss boat on who Jesus was, what he actually accomplished and furthermore are blind to the ways of life Jesus intends for humanity to interact with one another. Avoid at them all costs is a good option :)

I cannot speak to the "Evangelical Christians" you spoke with, but, I think Mormons passive nature to ones beliefs could be based at least in part on what they believe. For Mormons or Latter Day Saints (LDS) most everyone goes to one of the three layers of Heaven, the only ones going to "outer darkness" or what most understand as hell (a place of punishment) are Mormon defectors, those who were once Mormon but walked away from that faith. So if most people are going to some sort of heavenly experience in the next life than one might see why there is less pushiness. With evangelicals, only those who place their faith in Jesus' work on the cross (God coming and being punished in humanity's place so we would not have to receive our just punishment, i.e., the grace and mercy of God) will be with him in "heaven", "the kingdom of God", etc. Therefore all others who reject Jesus' sacrifice choose life without God for eternity, or hell.

Whether one believes either of these views is not the main point, but understanding why Morons may be more passive and evangelicals more aggressive in their passion to help others understand things from their respective viewpoints (although I think many "Christians" miss the heart of the message and therefore become pushy, judgmental, etc). If you really believed someone you cared about was going to spend eternity away from everything good, I think it is reasonable response to be passionate in your attempts to reason with and persuade them to reconsider. Again, this is often misrepresented by those who are really not one bit concerned about someone else, who in rather calloused manner seek to bolster their numbers for purposes of power, status or whatever other impure motive they have for being pushy.

As a pastor of a church of people who would mostly identify as "evangelical" if asked to wear such labels (one that I myself do not wear) I have seen the other side of the coin. Spouses who are emotionally, mentally and spiritually heartbroken for their husband or wife, because they have no interest in the things of faith regarding Jesus. I know many people who really hurt over those they understand as without faith in Jesus, because of the end result of that lack of faith. More than this, I see many who desire a life of faith in Jesus for the benefits and quality of life is brings in the here and now as well as the life to come. Anyway, I hope that you encounter some Christians with this sort of respectful, gracious and yet heart felt passion for others if you have not already .
 

phgreek

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I liked the Fox moderators/debate way better than the CNBC's.

I actually got to hear answers, or lack thereof to questions of substance...and saw some pretty good exchanges.

I still like Kasich...because I think he can win a general election against the machine...
 

RDU Irish

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What I caught of the debate, I agree. Seemed like a much healthier exchange. I would only cut the field in half for the two debates. Gives everyone more time and adds some substance to the undercard. WTF Santorum and Huckabee think they are doing any different this time around to magically get even 5% of the vote is beyond me.
 

phgreek

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What I caught of the debate, I agree. Seemed like a much healthier exchange. I would only cut the field in half for the two debates. Gives everyone more time and adds some substance to the undercard. WTF Santorum and Huckabee think they are doing any different this time around to magically get even 5% of the vote is beyond me.

Agree...they should just split it in half based on polls.
 

IrishJayhawk

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Agree...they should just split it in half based on polls.

Which polls? What's the cutoff? Sometimes the cutoff comes between people who are actually statistically tied due to the margin of error. I don't have answers here...it's just very complex when you have so many candidates.
 

RDU Irish

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Which polls? What's the cutoff? Sometimes the cutoff comes between people who are actually statistically tied due to the margin of error. I don't have answers here...it's just very complex when you have so many candidates.

National polls driving the debate participation seems silly to me. Heavily overweighting Iowa/NH/So Car polls seems like a much more reasonable thing to do. We have already seen candidates be able to separate from strong undercard performances, splitting them in half would help delineate the race.
 

phgreek

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Which polls? What's the cutoff? Sometimes the cutoff comes between people who are actually statistically tied due to the margin of error. I don't have answers here...it's just very complex when you have so many candidates.

some predefined composite with backloading (ie latest polls mean more). If tied flip a coin...I think fairness to the candidates matters, just not more than the ability of the debate to provide some help to primary voters. Having that many on the debate stage is a detractor from the overall benefit to primary voters.
 

IrishJayhawk

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some predefined composite with backloading (ie latest polls mean more). If tied flip a coin...I think fairness to the candidates matters, just not more than the ability of the debate to provide some help to primary voters. Having that many on the debate stage is a detractor from the overall benefit to primary voters.

Agreed. Just tough to cull the field in a way that is fair.
 

GoIrish41

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I thought Rand Paul had his best debate to date. I am not sure how the wagging the finger at other candidates about being the only true conservative because doesn't want to blow the budget on the military will play with voters. It was either endearing or off putting. Wil be interesting how that unfolds.

Carson seemed lost talking about substance and seems to pull numbers out of thin air when the focus is on policy and not his biography. Further discussions about policy will sink his chances I suspect.

Rubio and Fiorina are hawkish as hell, and we would be at war a month into their presidency. Especially Fiorina ... He policy ideas would be viewed by the world as acts of aggression. Nobody wants to go to war with Russia or China and that is where their policies would push us ... Dangerous stuff. Rubio is great at delivering his prefab mini speeches but they all seem politically calculated (reminds me of OMalley on the other side). Fiorina comes off as shrill, mean spirited and overly aggressive. Plus she has her failure as a CEO to deal with. She contends that she would beat Hillary -- that does not look likely even if you squint just right.

Bush just does not have what it takes. He tried to be more assertive but he just does not pack a punch. This debate won't do anything for his declining poll numbers, I think. I almost feel sorry for the guy.

Trump needs to put some meat on the bones of his policies or his star is going to fade. "I will do great things" without any detail cannot sustain him through the primaries, and even if they do, he will be eaten alive in the general election. His signature proposal of deporting 11 million people is just stupid and Kasich -- to his credit -- keeps calling him out on it. I have got to believe that the majority of the GOP voters will realize how many problems that plan would cause for the economy and for the social fabric of communities across the country. We are not going to build a super wall and it's about time that fantasy is put to bed. Paul rightly pointed out that we spend more on the military than the next 10 countries combined, so Trump's plan to make it even bigger "so nobody will mess with us" is a childish, fiscally irresponsible appeal to low information voters.

Kasich continues to seem like the most reasonable candidate on the stage. He does a good job at pointing out that some of the proposals of the other candidates are just not realistic and that the Dems would beat them over the head with them in the general election. He seems like the candidate who understands the political realities more than any of the others. But, he continues to be at the last podium. Trump is masterful at putting him on the defensive, which is sad because he has more experience and accomplishments than anyone else on the stage.

Cruz is not a serious candidate. His proposals are just tea party nonsense and his delivery gives the impression that he desperately wants to say something profound but just isn't capable. He's a cartoon and he would get destroyed in the general election on his leading the charge to shut down the government alone.

The questions from the moderators were good and led to discussions of policies. They did a lot to expose the candidates with silly ideas and gave others to make their case. This was the most productive GOP debate by far, even if the moderators seemed to let the tail wag the dog at times.
 

Polish Leppy 22

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I thought Rand Paul had his best debate to date. I am not sure how the wagging the finger at other candidates about being the only true conservative because doesn't want to blow the budget on the military will play with voters. It was either endearing or off putting. Wil be interesting how that unfolds.

Carson seemed lost talking about substance and seems to pull numbers out of thin air when the focus is on policy and not his biography. Further discussions about policy will sink his chances I suspect.

Rubio and Fiorina are hawkish as hell, and we would be at war a month into their presidency. Especially Fiorina ... He policy ideas would be viewed by the world as acts of aggression. Nobody wants to go to war with Russia or China and that is where their policies would push us ... Dangerous stuff. Rubio is great at delivering his prefab mini speeches but they all seem politically calculated (reminds me of OMalley on the other side). Fiorina comes off as shrill, mean spirited and overly aggressive. Plus she has her failure as a CEO to deal with. She contends that she would beat Hillary -- that does not look likely even if you squint just right.

Bush just does not have what it takes. He tried to be more assertive but he just does not pack a punch. This debate won't do anything for his declining poll numbers, I think. I almost feel sorry for the guy.

Trump needs to put some meat on the bones of his policies or his star is going to fade. "I will do great things" without any detail cannot sustain him through the primaries, and even if they do, he will be eaten alive in the general election. His signature proposal of deporting 11 million people is just stupid and Kasich -- to his credit -- keeps calling him out on it. I have got to believe that the majority of the GOP voters will realize how many problems that plan would cause for the economy and for the social fabric of communities across the country. We are not going to build a super wall and it's about time that fantasy is put to bed. Paul rightly pointed out that we spend more on the military than the next 10 countries combined, so Trump's plan to make it even bigger "so nobody will mess with us" is a childish, fiscally irresponsible appeal to low information voters.

Kasich continues to seem like the most reasonable candidate on the stage. He does a good job at pointing out that some of the proposals of the other candidates are just not realistic and that the Dems would beat them over the head with them in the general election. He seems like the candidate who understands the political realities more than any of the others. But, he continues to be at the last podium. Trump is masterful at putting him on the defensive, which is sad because he has more experience and accomplishments than anyone else on the stage.

Cruz is not a serious candidate. His proposals are just tea party nonsense and his delivery gives the impression that he desperately wants to say something profound but just isn't capable. He's a cartoon and he would get destroyed in the general election on his leading the charge to shut down the government alone.

The questions from the moderators were good and led to discussions of policies. They did a lot to expose the candidates with silly ideas and gave others to make their case. This was the most productive GOP debate by far, even if the moderators seemed to let the tail wag the dog at times.

Rand: His "thing" is the Fed but not enough to gain legs, and he can't raise money. Only a matter of time.

Rubio: Gaining traction and conservatives like what he has to say. Also doesn't hurt talking about how his parents came here legally and built a future for themselves.

Fioirina: Continues to impress and is absolutely Hillary's worst nightmare. Big fan of her background and talking about health care solutions as a cancer survivor.

Bush: Might be gone before Rand, and I will be thrilled. Screw him.

Trump: We AGREE...he needs more substance eventually. Surprised he isn't getting pressed harder on details.

Kasich: Good riddance, you can have him.

Cruz: Would probably be a better Attorney General but like what he brings to the debates.

Moderators: I hope the jackasses at CNBC were taking notes. Last night was more professional, more substantive, and less grade school playground shit.
 

pkt77242

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Rand: His "thing" is the Fed but not enough to gain legs, and he can't raise money. Only a matter of time.

Rubio: Gaining traction and conservatives like what he has to say. Also doesn't hurt talking about how his parents came here legally and built a future for themselves.

Fioirina: Continues to impress and is absolutely Hillary's worst nightmare. Big fan of her background and talking about health care solutions as a cancer survivor.

Bush: Might be gone before Rand, and I will be thrilled. Screw him.

Trump: We AGREE...he needs more substance eventually. Surprised he isn't getting pressed harder on details.

Kasich: Good riddance, you can have him.

Cruz: Would probably be a better Attorney General but like what he brings to the debates.

Moderators: I hope the jackasses at CNBC were taking notes. Last night was more professional, more substantive, and less grade school playground shit.

Huh? I will give you a chance to explain that before passing judgement but as it is written that is mind boggling.
 
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