ND's Path to the 2015 Playoffs

[philipm31]

Baylor may have enough on both sides of the ball to defeat TCU, possibly maul them. Their frosh QB was amazing last night. Still a long road to go.

 

[wizards8507]

Baylor may have enough on both sides of the ball to defeat TCU, possibly maul them. Their frosh QB was amazing last night. Still a long road to go.

Last night's game was a shitfest. I think Oklahoma clobbers both of them.

 

[BobbyMac]

For the undefeated teams, I think we can get jumped regardless of what we do. If Baylor or TCU crushes the other one by 30, we're probably getting jumped.

I worded that wrong. Was thinking Baylor only with that question. Hoping for an error filled, 50 point shoot out win for OSU in Stillwater will reinforce the negative perception of the Big-12. If TCU goes in there and lays an azz whoopin on the Cowboys that would be no bueno.

 

[ulukinatme]

SoS and eye test is important, based on what we know of the committee. A close loss to 'Bama may not kick LSU out of the Top 4, and LSU would have an impressive win over a decent Florida squad still.
As far as getting jumped, it's likely inevitable if one of the Big 12 teams wins out, but only one can possibly win out, and there's no guarantee they will. Cannibalism will occur, we just have to hope none of them can escape unscathed. I don't see any of them jumping us with 1 loss, maybe Oklahoma if they beat all 3 between OK St, TCU, and Baylor. That would be an impressive finish, despite their loss to rival Texas. Even then, I would say we would hopefully get the nod at 11-1 over them. Oklahoma has been impressive this year outside of that rivalry game, but I would think beating Stanford would give us the edge (As long as Stanford wins out till our game too).

 

[RDU Irish]

Easiest path by far is Big12 cannibalization. We are first ones in from that opening. Jumping someone who wins a CCG will be tough. November is for contenders baby!

 

[SoDakDomer]

SoS and eye test is important, based on what we know of the committee. A close loss to 'Bama may not kick LSU out of the Top 4, and LSU would have an impressive win over a decent Florida squad still.
As far as getting jumped, it's likely inevitable if one of the Big 12 teams wins out, but only one can possibly win out, and there's no guarantee they will. Cannibalism will occur, we just have to hope none of them can escape unscathed. I don't see any of them jumping us with 1 loss, maybe Oklahoma if they beat all 3 between OK St, TCU, and Baylor. That would be an impressive finish, despite their loss to rival Texas. Even then, I would say we would hopefully get the nod at 11-1 over them. Oklahoma has been impressive this year outside of that rivalry game, but I would think beating Stanford would give us the edge (As long as Stanford wins out till our game too).

If both us and Oklahoma only have one loss I can't imagine they get in over us. Our one loss is to (assuming) ACC champ Clemson and their loss is to Texas, who we curb stomped.

 

[BeatSC]

Who do we want to win? Clemson or FSU? Do I need to keeping cheering for USC? Goes against my nature .

 

[IrishHokie22]

Just so I'm clear... we're rooting for Clemson to beat FSU, right? I guess we should also be rooting for OKST to beat TCU? Goes without saying that we root for Indiana to beat Iowa, Nebraska to beat Sparty, and Navy to beat Memphis.

 

[GATTACA!]

Who do we want to win? Clemson or FSU? Do I need to keeping cheering for USC? Goes against my nature .

Conventional wisdom says we should hope for Clemson to win because they are a part of the reason we are ranked so high. However looking at some of the statistics the committee considers I think we are all the way at 5 because they respect our body of work and not just Clemson being #1. Also looking at Alabama, Ole Miss losing hasnt effected them negatively. Plus chaos is our friend, the less undefeated teams there are the more schenarios there are for us to get in.

I understand the argument for Clemson winning, but where we are right now if Clemson goes down I think we will be at #3 by Tuesday night.

 

[rocket66]

Who do we want to win? Clemson or FSU? Do I need to keeping cheering for USC? Goes against my nature .

USC for sure. I have no idea with Clemson


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[ickythump1225]

I'm cheering for Clemson just for clarity's sake. I don't want to have to live in a world where Clemson is 11-1, FSU is 12-1, and we're 11-1 and Clemson holds the head to head over us. I just want FSU to lose so 1 team is clearly eliminated. Same reason I'm cheering for LSU tonight.

 

[ulukinatme]

I'll say this, if Clemson wins out today you have to root for them the rest of the way, simply because it's unlikely they're going to lose anyway. If they drop a game against a poor opponent we'll still get credit for the close game, but it would look much better to the committee if they win out. Clemson is doing a pretty good job bottling up Cook since the initial goof, and Clemson was moving the ball well late in the half. I think they'll win this game.

I'm lovin' that TCU is struggling with Oklahoma State right now. If OK St. keeps this going it's great for us because I think Patterson is a pretty good coach and I'd rather face either Baylor or Ok State if we have to (But I still hope for complete Big 12 cannibalism, which starts today). If OK State wins, they're going to move up pretty far in the poll I wager, and I imagine if TCU comes back they could potentially jump MSU and maybe Baylor. They should jump Baylor at least, since Baylor doesn't get their first real test till next week.

Wish we wouldn't have given up those two TDs in garbage time today, those would have been really great for style points with the committee.

 

[GATTACA!]

I'll say this, if Clemson wins out today you have to root for them the rest of the way, simply because it's unlikely they're going to lose anyway. If they drop a game against a poor opponent we'll still get credit for the close game, but it would look much better to the committee if they win out. Clemson is doing a pretty good job bottling up Cook since the initial goof, and Clemson was moving the ball well late in the half. I think they'll win this game.

I'm lovin' that TCU is struggling with Oklahoma State right now. If OK St. keeps this going it's great for us because I think Patterson is a pretty good coach and I'd rather face either Baylor or Ok State if we have to (But I still hope for complete Big 12 cannibalism, which starts today). If OK State wins, they're going to move up pretty far in the poll I wager, and I imagine if TCU comes back they could potentially jump MSU and maybe Baylor. They should jump Baylor at least, since Baylor doesn't get their first real test till next week.

Wish we wouldn't have given up those two TDs in garbage time today, those would have been really great for style points with the committee.

I agree about TCU especially with Baylor having to play Stidham. OKST is a dream playoff matchup at this point. If we could somehow face them or Iowa in the 2v3 I like our chances.

 

[ulukinatme]

I agree about TCU especially with Baylor having to play Stidham. OKST is a dream playoff matchup at this point. Fine could somehow face them or Iowa in the 2v3 I like our chances.

Yeah, I wouldn't mind facing any of the Big 12 teams, but I don't see how the Big 12 would get in if we get in. Shaky secondary or not, we can hang with their crappy defenses in a shootout. I would take OK State first, then Baylor with the backup (Even though he played pretty well in his first start), followed by TCU as the least favorable. I still think Oklahoma is tougher than all 3, they have a tougher defense than the others and they struggled against a rival.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Is today going to be one of those situations where we realize in a month we should have been rooting for Clemson to lose instead of win?

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Yeah, I wouldn't mind facing any of the Big 12 teams, but I don't see how the Big 12 would get in if we get in. Shaky secondary or not, we can hang with their crappy defenses in a shootout. I would take OK State first, then Baylor with the backup (Even though he played pretty well in his first start), followed by TCU as the least favorable. I still think Oklahoma is tougher than all 3, they have a tougher defense than the others and they struggled against a rival.

I think watching KVR trying to guard Coleman from Baylor would make my head explode.

 

[ulukinatme]

Is today going to be one of those situations where we realize in a month we should have been rooting for Clemson to lose instead of win?

Only if we don't end up running the table, or if a Big 12 team runs the table. While one of them can escape, the Big 12 teams don't have a very good chance of going undefeated in November since they all have to play each other.

 

[ulukinatme]

I think watching KVR trying to guard Coleman from Baylor would make my head explode.

Yeah, it would be a barn burner most likely, but I like our chances if it comes down to it. Russell won't break on every play. He'll get some stops, he'll give up some big plays too, but he seems to get his head in the game when it matters most. Our offense would have a field day with these defenses.

 

[ickythump1225]

I would love a Big 12 team in the playoffs. Especially Baylor, I think that team is soft and they play zero defense. None. Yeah it would probably be a shootout but I like our defense to make a few stops whereas I don't think their defense could consistently stop a good FCS offense.

 

[NDRock]

I'm cheering for Clemson just for clarity's sake. I don't want to have to live in a world where Clemson is 11-1, FSU is 12-1, and we're 11-1 and Clemson holds the head to head over us. I just want FSU to lose so 1 team is clearly eliminated. Same reason I'm cheering for LSU tonight.

Completely agree, the more teams that are truly eliminated, the better.

 

[GATTACA!]

Completely agree, the more teams that are truly eliminated, the better.

But by the same token any scenario where a 12-1 FSU keeps us out the result would be the same regardless of tonight's game, except Clemson would be the team keeping us out at 13-0.

 

[Cogs]

I hate to be a Kool-aid dispenser/homer but who's offense is better than ours? Seriously. Maybe Baylor or Oklahoma state...we are DEEP

 

[NDRock]

But by the same token any scenario where a 12-1 FSU keeps us out the result would be the same regardless of tonight's game, except Clemson would be the team keeping us out at 13-0.

The point is a 12-1 FSU also means an 11-1 Clemson. Would be very difficult to make a case that we should be ahead of Clemson at that point (same record, beat us head to heat). With Clemson winning, that means only one ACC team could possibly be ahead of us.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Iowa continues doing what they have to do. Indiana has a bad record, but has played lots of teams very tough this year. Solid win on the road.

 

[dang227]

Ole Miss blows. Why is Alabama's loss to them largely overlooked?

 

[BeatSC]

Do we want Ole Miss to beat Ark?

 

[ickythump1225]

Iowa continues doing what they have to do. Indiana has a bad record, but has played lots of teams very tough this year. Solid win on the road.

Ugh f**k Iowa. If ND got shut out of the playoffs by Iowa I would be pissed. I was going to ask how they keep winning but then I glanced at their schedule. 3 good/decent teams and a bunch of garbage.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Do we want Ole Miss to beat Ark?

I don't think we want much of anything at this point. So much left to happen, the hypotheticals are just endless.

 

[NDRock]

Do we want Ole Miss to beat Ark?

I want Ole Miss to win out and win the SEC with 2 losses. I still have a dream of an SEC team getting left out of the playoff, causing chaos and the immediate expansion to 8 teams. I'm also drunk.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Ugh f**k Iowa. If ND got shut out of the playoffs by Iowa I would be pissed. I was going to ask how they keep winning but then I glanced at their schedule. 3 good/decent teams and a bunch of garbage.

If Iowa wins out, it will mean that they beat MSU or tOSU in the B1G title game. Undefeated with a blowout in Evanston and in that title game, Iowa would have absolutely earned it.