The Epic Failure that is the 2011 Recruiting Class

[stlnd01]

Compare that to the 2014 class that might be the lynchpin to a playoff run in 2015.

Do Trumbetti, Cage, Bonner, Blankenship and Hayes add up to help our D-line as much as Tuitt did in 2012? Some might argue Trumbetti is as good as Tuitt so the other guys would be a bonus.

Tranquill, Morgan and Martini contribute on D too, in 2012 Niklas was figuring out LB duties.

Luatua will be a big contributor at TE (literally and figuratively). Quentin Nelson, if he doesn't earn a starting spot will be valuable depth pushing the first string. Justin Brent won't be called upon because we don't need him thanks to ridiculous WR depth. Holmes is in a similar boat. Are they better than sophomore TJ Jones and Daniels who benefited from early PT thanks to weak competition ahead of them?

Newsome as a quality punter shouldn't be discounted too much either, not as valuable as Brindza but that is because we brought in Yoon for a place kicking ace. That unit is overall could be considered better than Brindza (who was very good).

Help me out with who I am missing but the current sophomores look way deeper with plenty of star power to exceed the 2012 sophomore contribution.

First off: I love Trumbetti, but he's no Tuitt. Tuitt was the most athletic defensive lineman we've had in probably a generation. He only really lived up to it in 2012, but he was very good that year. The rest of those guys on the D line have done exactly nothing so far. If we're going to make a run this year, you're damn right they'll need to step up.

That said, I completely agree with your broader point (if I'm interpreting correctly). Our recruiting classes have gotten deeper, with more solid contributors and fewer high-risk/high-reward types. We can weather an injury or flameout a lot better now, and some of those contributors will become stars.. That's a good thing and will be essential to whatever success we might have this year.

 

[RDU Irish]

Oh, and Jaylon and Sheldon versus Manti and Nix headlining a top tier defense. Those guys stayed healthy in 2012 to make up for very weak depth, especially up front. Our D is way deeper and more talented as a whole, I mean 2012 NEEDED Day and Jarron Jones to step in because we had nobody else. Kap, Nix and Tuitt had huge drop off if they came off the field.

Would you take the 2012Rees/Golson combo over Malik? Zach Martin versus Ronnie Stanley - not a step backward, look at the rest of the line and depth and we are much better. TE is the only position I can think of where we significantly lose star power but that was all on Eifert being a freaking super stud.

WR had John Goodman and Robby Toma putting in meaningful minutes - TJ and Daniels were our #1 and #2 (realistically Eifert was our #1) - Are we better off with Fuller, Robinson, Brown, etc?

 

[woolybug25]

LOLZ Balki... a class that played in a National Championship game and sent a 1/3 of their class to the NFL is an "epic failure"?

Surprised Ty Willingham's classes didn't send you jumping off a bridge. ha

 

[gkIrish]

Serious question... Move on to what?

Somebody else. I don't believe in the "you don't make a change because there may not be a better candidate" theory. I'll put together a list at the end of the season if we go 8-4 again.

How do you predict injuries? Statistically some are expected but this class had an inordinate amount.

Who foresaw Hegarty having heart surgery?

The inordinate number injuries have had been a major factor in the record. IF ND took Jucos which they can't academically you could replace a career ending injury with a developed 20 year old. Instead ND has to replace them with a 17 or 18 year old and wait on development. No Mountain Cody to plug in at ND.

50% is still an unacceptable number. I understand that ND has obstacles to overcome that other schools don't but if you look at that list the majority of guys were just flat out not good players. And a couple of the good players left early which means it was just a disaster class.

 

[RDU Irish]

First off: I love Trumbetti, but he's no Tuitt. Tuitt was the most athletic defensive lineman we've had in probably a generation. He only really lived up to it in 2012, but he was very good that year. The rest of those guys on the D line have done exactly nothing so far. If we're going to make a run this year, you're damn right they'll need to step up.

That said, I completely agree with your broader point (if I'm interpreting correctly). Our recruiting classes have gotten deeper, with more solid contributors and fewer high-risk/high-reward types. We can weather an injury or flameout a lot better now, and some of those contributors will become stars.. That's a good thing and will be essential to whatever success we might have this year.

Jaylon is as high a profile recruit as you will find so I take exception to the lack of "high reward" types. As high profile as Manti? I dunno.

Quenton Nelson was a five star, so was Max Redfield, (Greg Bryant, Vanderdoes and Keil being lost opportunities) So half the five stars we signed since 2012 are starters this year and the other half are gone. Those are shots worth taking.

Alize Jones is kind of a big deal, as is Jerry Tillery. Two big frosh that look to contribute on a very high level this year with ridiculous upside.

Russell is an All American, Stanley a first round draft pick, Fuller has developed into an early round receiver..... I'm not see the lack of "high-reward" here? Or does it not count because most of these guys are not high risk kids?

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

I chalk it up to piss poor development. Im just not sold on BKs ability to develop. When you have that guy at Mich state taking 2 and 3 stars to play like 4 and 5 stars, that is a developer. What about Boise State? BK takes 4-5 stars and they perform like 2 and 3 stars consistently.

I was speaking to a ND grad yesterday and he went to ND back in Parseghian's day. We were talking about how everyone gets up for ND and how .500 teams play like .900 teams vs ND. My response was, everyone gets up for Bama now. Does not everyone on the West coast get up for USC big time? Doesnt everyone get up for OSU in the B10? Bama beats the scrubs teams by 40 pts. ND beats the Purdues by 3 with a minute to go. Wasnt a lot left to reply with.

I realize being a coach at ND requires a successful mix of skills. For example, you cant get drunk at an ND function, spew crap and keep your job. You have to be able to speak with the media well. And you have to win. Seems BK is really good at 1 and 2. 3 maybe not so good.

Did you just say BK is really good at getting drunk at ND functions and spewing crap but not at winning? Did you really say he hasn't developed talent?

You realize Kelly has put 19 people in the league since he's been here and we've been on an upward trajectory excepting the '15 draft since we are such a young team? Do you realize that we are on track to have another monster class enter the league after this year, assuming they meet expectations heaped on them?

I'm almost positive ND would be in the top 10 of draft picks since 2011/2012.

Kelly develops talent, he just hasn't proven to be a consistent winner. He always seems to find great players, like Will Fuller (ranked #173 WR on ESPN) or like Troy Niklas, who was an add-in player on signing day. Zach Martin was a 3-star OL and made the f*&^ing probowl his rookie year and Watt didn't play bad either.

Do you not remember the roster he inherited? Do you understand some problems aren't fixed in a single recruiting cycle? We finally have depth at all positions (getting close on safety).

I simply don't like bad posts that are pure conjecture, and your post was both.

 

[IrishLax]

The best development job by BK -- by far, IMO -- is Harrison Smith. He was dominant by the time BK and Elliot were done coaching him up, and despite being under-respected playing in Minnesota advanced and basic stats say he currently plays at an All-Pro level in the NFL.

ND has put more players into the league under BK than 95%+ of schools... many of them as top draft picks. I think his player development is phenomenal. I think he choice of prospects in '11 and '12 was maybe a bit flawed, but I really like what he has done in the classes since then. They seem like a really great blend of players.

 

[ACamp1900]

I'm amazed every year when I see fellow Irish fans simply expect to be winning ten games and be in the middle of title hunts... and every year 'this year is different'... I mean, can't we just expect what we have gotten every year until something different actually happens??

 

[Irish YJ]

I'm amazed every year when I see fellow Irish fans simply expect to be winning ten games and be in the middle of title hunts... and every year 'this year is different'... I mean, can't we just expect what we have gotten every year until something different actually happens??

Recruiting success at some point needs to translate to production
With our schedule and talent, no reason not to expect 10 wins this year

 

[ACamp1900]

 

[gkIrish]

I'm amazed every year when I see fellow Irish fans simply expect to be winning ten games and be in the middle of title hunts... and every year 'this year is different'... I mean, can't we just expect what we have gotten every year until something different actually happens??

I never expected 10 wins before this season. To me, this is the best team BK has had that is composed of his own players. So, if he can't win 10 games this year, he likely never will.

 

[Irishman77]

What else can you say? This class came in somewhere between #8 and #11 in the country. Boy did that translate...

Of the 23 members of that class (along with composite ranking):

Aaron Lynch: .9945 - Good freshman season, and then transferred.
Ishaq Williams: .9881 - Never started, barely contributed his first 3 seasons, got suspended and denied his final year of eligibility.
Stephon Tuitt: .9809 - Had 1 great year, 1 meh year, left early for the draft
Ben Koyack: .9752 - Started 1 year and was okay. Outside of that, next to nothing.
Matt Hegarty: .9708 - Good rotational player, good backup Center. Struggled mightily in his first year as a starter (2014).
Davaris Daniels: .9534 - Had 2 decent, but inconsistent years (2012 & 2013), got suspended, left school.
Eilar Hardy: .9142 - Barely contributed, had 1 good game in his career, got suspended, graduated and left.
Ben Councell: .9100 - Consistently injured, played sparingly in 2013, never overcame injury problems.
George Atkinson: .9051 - Good homerun threat, but couldn't develop runningback intangibles. Never developed past HR threat, left early for the draft.
Troy Niklas: .9011 - Okay as Eifert's backup, had a good 2013 year, left early.
Everett Golson: .8937 - Decent 2012 year, suspended next year, very inconsistent 2014 year, graduate transfer.
Anthony Rabasa: .8772 - Never contributed in a large role. Barely played in 2014, despite needs up front.
Jarrett Grace: .8715 - Solid 2013 as a starter before major leg injury, TBD with GS 2015 season.
Tony Springmann: .8640 - Solid as a backup in 2012, missed rest of his career with injury. Retired from football
Chase Hounshell: .8634 - Constant struggle with injuries, switched to TE this season. TBD.
Nick Martin: .8610 - Good 2013 season prior to season ending injury, very average year in 2014 dealing with nagging injuries, Captain in 2015.
Cam McDaniel: .8544 - Surprisingly solid 2013 campaign, followed by a incredibly disappointing 2014 season.
Brad Carrico: .8544 - Never contributed on the field, injuries ended career.
Jalen Brown: .8529 - Never contributed on the field, graduated and transferred.
Josh Atkinson: .8515 - Never contributed on the field, graduated and transferred.
Conor Hanratty: .8453 - Solid backup in 2013, injured in 2014, graduated and moved on.
Matthias Farley: .8414 - Switched from WR to S, solid 2012 as starter, struggled in 2013 with injuries, decent 2014 as starting NB, Captain in 2015.
Kyle Brindza: .8314 - Good career as P/K, shaky at the end, but ended on a high note.


2012 doesn't look much better either. We had 3 elite pass rushers in this class, and only 1 developed with us, and topped his career off with a very disappointing junior year (Tuitt). It's crazy to think that the 3 biggest contributors on this team are 2 of our lowest ranking players (Farley and Martin) and a former preferred walk-on (Joe Schmidt). Needless to say, I definitely prefer our current recruiting model.

Great post.....unfortunately

 

[Irish Insanity]

I expect 10 wins every fucking season. Enough of the bullshit excuses. Make it happen.

 

[aubeirish]

I'm amazed every year when I see fellow Irish fans simply expect to be winning ten games and be in the middle of title hunts... and every year 'this year is different'... I mean, can't we just expect what we have gotten every year until something different actually happens??

Guilty as charge. What can I say, I'm a positive person.

 

[IrishinSyria]

We'll see whose calling Golson a bust when he wins the Heisman this year.

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

Recruiting success at some point needs to translate to production
With our schedule and talent, no reason not to expect 10 wins this year

I never expected 10 wins before this season. To me, this is the best team BK has had that is composed of his own players. So, if he can't win 10 games this year, he likely never will.

Well the problem has been that the 2011 and 2012 classes were disasters in hindsight, and all the elite talent from the 2011 class was gone before last season anyway. 2012 had some solid pieces but has provided us with almost no depth as we lost guys to transfers/injury from an already small class. Our 2013 class was stellar IMO (Championship runs tend to do that) and has already provided as much as both those classes combined, even while still being young. We HAVE to win this year and get some recruiting momentum because the backbone of this team is based off that class.

The 2014 and 2015 classes have been OK for the most part, but not championship caliber. I do think they're much better composed than Kelly's earlier classes and should provide good depth for this season, which should be an improvement in and of itself. But the star power on this team is still concentrated in the 2013 class and to some degree the 2012 class, which the elite players likely gone at the end of this year. This is a huge put-up or shut-up year.

 

[phork]

We'll see whose calling Golson a bust when he wins the Heisman this year. /s

FIFY.

And in case you didn't mean it that way, then LOL.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Aaron Lynch: .9945 - Good freshman season, and then transferred.
Ishaq Williams: .9881 - Never started, barely contributed his first 3 seasons, got suspended and denied his final year of eligibility.
Stephon Tuitt: .9809 - Had 1 great year, 1 meh year, left early for the draft
Ben Koyack: .9752 - Started 1 year and was okay. Outside of that, next to nothing.
Matt Hegarty: .9708 - Good rotational player, good backup Center. Struggled mightily in his first year as a starter (2014).
Davaris Daniels: .9534 - Had 2 decent, but inconsistent years (2012 & 2013), got suspended, left school.
Eilar Hardy: .9142 - Barely contributed, had 1 good game in his career, got suspended, graduated and left.
Ben Councell: .9100 - Consistently injured, played sparingly in 2013, never overcame injury problems.
George Atkinson: .9051 - Good homerun threat, but couldn't develop runningback intangibles. Never developed past HR threat, left early for the draft.
Troy Niklas: .9011 - Okay as Eifert's backup, had a good 2013 year, left early.
Everett Golson: .8937 - Decent 2012 year, suspended next year, very inconsistent 2014 year, graduate transfer.
Anthony Rabasa: .8772 - Never contributed in a large role. Barely played in 2014, despite needs up front.
Jarrett Grace: .8715 - Solid 2013 as a starter before major leg injury, TBD with GS 2015 season.
Tony Springmann: .8640 - Solid as a backup in 2012, missed rest of his career with injury. Retired from football
Chase Hounshell: .8634 - Constant struggle with injuries, switched to TE this season. TBD.
Nick Martin: .8610 - Good 2013 season prior to season ending injury, very average year in 2014 dealing with nagging injuries, Captain in 2015.
Cam McDaniel: .8544 - Surprisingly solid 2013 campaign, followed by a incredibly disappointing 2014 season.
Brad Carrico: .8544 - Never contributed on the field, injuries ended career.
Jalen Brown: .8529 - Never contributed on the field, graduated and transferred.
Josh Atkinson: .8515 - Never contributed on the field, graduated and transferred.
Conor Hanratty: .8453 - Solid backup in 2013, injured in 2014, graduated and moved on.
Matthias Farley: .8414 - Switched from WR to S, solid 2012 as starter, struggled in 2013 with injuries, decent 2014 as starting NB, Captain in 2015.
Kyle Brindza: .8314 - Good career as P/K, shaky at the end, but ended on a high note.

Didn't the bolded all get drafted? Guys like Nick Martin will too, maybe one or two more. The rest of the guys were either injured or "meh" like their ranking suggests. Ishaq Williams is really the only complete bust on the list.

Your descriptions for guys like Niklas are silly. You show a weird bias here.

Yeah the class was largely a dud, but looking at the rankings it was't going to rewrite the record books.

 

[Crazy Balki]

Didn't the bolded all get drafted? Guys like Nick Martin will too, maybe one or two more. The rest of the guys were either injured or "meh" like their ranking suggests. Ishaq Williams is really the only complete bust on the list.

Your description for guys like Niklas are silly. You show a weird bias here.

Yeah the class was largely a dud, but looking at the rankings it was't going to rewrite the record books.

Lynch didn't get drafted while here. He transferred after 1 season. It's great that he got drafted, but he barely contributed for ND from a broader aspect. Tuitt had 1 really good season, but followed it up by not taking care of his injury, entering 2013 out of shape and having a mediocre season (outside of USC). So out of 3 elite 5-star level DE's, we got 1 great and 1 really good year out of them. That's not good any way you look at it.

As for Niklas, he was hardly ever on the field in 2012, b/c Eifert was that much of a weapon. 2013, Niklas made improvements and had a good 2013 year, but he was still very raw as a TE and he never realized his potential. When our best players are giving us just 1 good season, that's not particularly good. You expect 1 good season or 2 from 3-star developmental players, not 4-5 stars. Koyack was our highest rated TE since Rudolph, and he never lived up to it. Again, only played for 1 year legitimately (and had Niklas stayed, he probably would've barely seen the field in 2014), and he was solid at best. Not bad by any means, but he didn't really stand out as a TE for us, outside of the Stanford catch.

The rankings were good, it was a top 10 class and had a ton of elite talent, most of which never translated at ND. That's not bias, it's just how things turned out.

 

[tussin]

Didn't the bolded all get drafted? Guys like Nick Martin will too, maybe one or two more. The rest of the guys were either injured or "meh" like their ranking suggests. Ishaq Williams is really the only complete bust on the list.

I'd say Hegarty and Hardy also did not live up to their recruiting rankings.

 

[NDinL.A.]

Lynch didn't get drafted while here. He transferred after 1 season. It's great that he got drafted, but he barely contributed for ND from a broader aspect. Tuitt had 1 really good season, but followed it up by not taking care of his injury, entering 2013 out of shape and having a mediocre season (outside of USC). So out of 3 elite 5-star level DE's, we got 1 great and 1 really good year out of them. That's not good any way you look at it.

As for Niklas, he was hardly ever on the field in 2012, b/c Eifert was that much of a weapon. 2013, Niklas made improvements and had a good 2013 year, but he was still very raw as a TE and he never realized his potential. When our best players are giving us just 1 good season, that's not particularly good. You expect 1 good season or 2 from 3-star developmental players, not 4-5 stars. Koyack was our highest rated TE since Rudolph, and he never lived up to it. Again, only played for 1 year legitimately (and had Niklas stayed, he probably would've barely seen the field in 2014), and he was solid at best. Not bad by any means, but he didn't really stand out as a TE for us, outside of the Stanford catch.

The rankings were good, it was a top 10 class and had a ton of elite talent, most of which never translated at ND. That's not bias, it's just how things turned out.

That's just not true. Niklas played A LOT that year. Did you watch the games? We ran the ball a lot and did so out of 2 TE sets quite a lot. Niklas was a far bigger contributor than you're giving him credit for.

 

[NDinL.A.]

LOLZ Balki... a class that played in a National Championship game and sent a 1/3 of their class to the NFL is an "epic failure"?

Surprised Ty Willingham's classes didn't send you jumping off a bridge. ha

Easy wooly. Only Balki is allowed to tell people to not be emotional when they post, but of course he can be as emotional as he wants. He chastised me "not letting me have the right to right to vent!" when he blew up and overreacted after the Louisville loss (the coach he now is saying is only a tad below Urban Meyer was an "awful in-game coach and a horrible play-caller" just 2 games ago), and then the very next day told a poster to R.E.L.A.X. bc ha dared questioned something about ND's team lol.

I now look forward to a famous poster calling me a "bully"...

 

[jerboski]

Easy wooly. Only Balki is allowed to tell people to not be emotional when they post, but of course he can be as emotional as he wants. He chastised me "not letting me have the right to right to vent!" when he blew up and overreacted after the Louisville loss (the coach he now is saying is only a tad below Urban Meyer was an "awful in-game coach and a horrible play-caller" just 2 games ago), and then the very next day told a poster to R.E.L.A.X. bc ha dared questioned something about ND's team lol.

I now look forward to a famous poster calling me a "bully"...

Stop the bullying

 

[Crazy Balki]

That's just not true. Niklas played A LOT that year. Did you watch the games? We ran the ball a lot and did so out of 2 TE sets quite a lot. Niklas was a far bigger contributor than you're giving him credit for.

Easy wooly. Only Balki is allowed to tell people to not be emotional when they post, but of course he can be as emotional as he wants. He chastised me "not letting me have the right to right to vent!" when he blew up and overreacted after the Louisville loss (the coach he now is saying is only a tad below Urban Meyer was an "awful in-game coach and a horrible play-caller" just 2 games ago), and then the very next day told a poster to R.E.L.A.X. bc ha dared questioned something about ND's team lol.

I now look forward to a famous poster calling me a "bully"...

Oh yeah, forgot that LA is the only one on here that's allowed to be right. No no LA, please bring up the same argument for the billionth time, it's not entirely annoying...

 

[NDinL.A.]

Stop the bullying

Hmmmm, I was looking for someone more famous.

Oh yeah, forgot that LA is the only one on here that's allowed to be right. No no LA, please bring up the same argument for the billionth time, it's not entirely annoying...

No, lots of people are right here. You're just not in this case. You made something up to support your argument. The truth is, Niklas played A LOT that season, and was an important part of that team. To say he was "hardly ever on the field" just isn't right. Not even close in fact.

Sorry to call you out on it.

 

[kmoose]

It took about 3.5 minutes to figure out that Troy Niklas participated in ALL 13 games, in the 2012 season, starting 7 of them.

UND.COM - University of Notre Dame Official Athletic Site - Football

It doesn't specify how many minutes/plays, but here is a link to his earning a letter from the Monogram Club in 2012.

Monogram Club Holds 2012 Spring Letter Jacket Ceremony - UND.COM - University of Notre Dame Official Athletic Site

For a guy who "was hardly ever on the field", that's pretty impressive.

 

[jerboski]

Hmmmm, I was looking for someone more famous.

Ha just messing with ya!!! Although it doesn't get any more famous than me

 

[Buster Bluth]

Lynch didn't get drafted while here. He transferred after 1 season. It's great that he got drafted, but he barely contributed for ND from a broader aspect. Tuitt had 1 really good season, but followed it up by not taking care of his injury, entering 2013 out of shape and having a mediocre season (outside of USC). So out of 3 elite 5-star level DE's, we got 1 great and 1 really good year out of them. That's not good any way you look at it.

Did I say it was good?

Stephon Tuitt was an All-American. So you can stop talking about him like he was a bust.

The rankings were good, it was a top 10 class and had a ton of elite talent

No, it didn't have "a ton" of elite talent. Unless you mean their cumulative weight. It was a top-heavy class, so when the "3 elite 5-star level DE's" were "not good any way you look at it," well you get the idea...

, most of which never translated at ND. That's not bias, it's just how things turned out.

No it's hyperbole.

As for Niklas, he was hardly ever on the field in 2012, b/c Eifert was that much of a weapon. 2013, Niklas made improvements and had a good 2013 year, but he was still very raw as a TE and he never realized his potential. When our best players are giving us just 1 good season, that's not particularly good. You expect 1 good season or 2 from 3-star developmental players, not 4-5 stars. Koyack was our highest rated TE since Rudolph, and he never lived up to it. Again, only played for 1 year legitimately (and had Niklas stayed, he probably would've barely seen the field in 2014), and he was solid at best. Not bad by any means, but he didn't really stand out as a TE for us, outside of the Stanford catch.

You're on acid.

 

[Crazy Balki]

Hmmmm, I was looking for someone more famous.



No, lots of people are right here. You're just not in this case. You made something up to support your argument. The truth is, Niklas played A LOT that season, and was an important part of that team. To say he was "hardly ever on the field" just isn't right. Not even close in fact.

Sorry to call you out on it.

He didn't play A LOT that season, he was used almost solely as an inline blocker, but that was it. Not to mention Koyack was used in the same mold that year as well. The fact though, was the Niklas wasn't good that year. He had moments where he flashed a little bit of potential, but he was still very underdeveloped both as a blocker and receiver. Need I remind you of the Stanford game in 2012? Him and Lombard got abused all game long.

Sorry that you don't agree, actually no I'm not, but I've stated my case, and more people agree with what I have to say. Sorry to call you out on it...

 

[Crazy Balki]

Did I say it was good?

Stephon Tuitt was an All-American. So you can stop talking about him like he was a bust.



No, it didn't have "a ton" of elite talent. Unless you mean their cumulative weight. It was a top-heavy class, so when the "3 elite 5-star level DE's" were "not good any way you look at it," well you get the idea...




No it's hyperbole.



You're on acid.

Yes it did have a "ton" of elite talent, yes there was a lot of underdeveloped 3-star type guys too, which I've stated as well as how we've improved since then in taking raw athletic players with high potential but aren't ranked that high. Tuitt, Ishaq, Lynch and Koyack were all ranked 5-stars by 1 or more sites. Several others in that class were ranked as high 4-star guys as well.

And as for the TE's, are you really going to say that Ben Koyack lived up to his star rating? C'mon man we got a solid but unspectacular year from him last season, he squeaked in the draft in the 7th round. This coming from a 4-5 star TE. Niklas finally developed into a good TE for us in 2013, both blocking and catching, but prior to that, he was still very raw, and was wildly inconsistent. You can't argue that, because the film speaks the truth. There was moments, where he had good blocking days, and then games like Stanford where he got abused constantly. He was practically invisible as a receiving threat.