2016 Presidential Horse Race

[IrishLax]

Shut down the flow of illegal immigration as completely as possible. Document the undocumented workers. Crack down hard on companies the employ undocumented workers. Immediately deport any and all violent offenders to their country of origin.

Please define specifically what this means and how you would do it, and what the cost would be.

 

[Wild Bill]

Getting involved in every conflict around the world is what gets people killed. Military spending is the mechanism that makes it possible.

Whether or not military should be cut is debatable. There would be consequences. I think we'd be foolish to believe otherwise. The question is whether or not we're better off. That's a fair debate.

Bernie wants to reduce corporate welfare and military spending -- two of the most costly areas of government spending.

What exactly does the government "spend" on corporations?

He also wants to eliminate tax breaks on the mega rich (I know, not austerity) to decrease the tax burden on average working families and to make college affordable to everyone.

The top 1% paid half the federal income tax bill in 2014. How much more should they pay to meet their fair share?

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/04/13/top-1-pay-nearly-half-of-federal-income-taxes.html

Nearly half the population pays NO income tax. Does he plan on increasing their credits to reduce their "burden"?

 

[jerboski]

So your premise here is what exactly? If undocumented workers are a vital cog in our economy, but a single one of them is a "rapist," that me means we should do.... what?

Great point, be interesting to hear the counter if there is one

 

[RDU Irish]

I don't disagree with the "no welfare" to non-citizens, I just don't know how practical that is. If you revise the policy on anchor babies and say you are not a citizen if you are born here illegally I get more behind it.

What most here view as woefully inadequate amounts to live on from welfare programs is viewed as living la vida loca relative to what they had back home.

 

[wizards8507]

Please define specifically what this means and how you would do it, and what the cost would be.

It's not about a physical barrier, it's about the elimination of incentives. If employers were sincerely fearful of employing illegal aliens because it came with serious penalties and those aliens were unable to collect welfare benefits, then they'd have no reason to come (illegally) in the first place.

A wall is stupid, if that's what you're getting at.

 

[theclassickiller]

I think it is hilarious (and also a little sad and not at all surprising) that you are defending Trump. And you are doing so by questioning the precision of language that is being used to describe what he said. How about applying the same standard to the guy you are defending? "They are rapists" is a pretty definitive statement. That means all of them. It did not mean some of them. If he meant "some" he would have stated it, like when he stated "and some, I assume, are good people". Forget that he said Mexico is sending these people, which is asinine and false. You are defending what he said by trying to hold me to a standard that he did not even come close to demonstrating. It is funny because I am a dude posting on a message board and he was on a stage in front of hundreds of people (who he paid to be there, lol) and on national TV announcing his candidacy to be president of the United States. How about applying your rigid standard of precise language to his statements instead of mine? I stand by everything I said. It is not the blowhard Trump who bothers me (he has always been an obnoxious dick who boldly spews inappropriate and fabricated garbage). it is the people who defend and support him that I find the most objectionable because they are either not smart enough to know or lack the humanity to care if he is an ignorant bigot, and still support and defend him -- even if they have to attack people who are simply reacting to what he so clearly said.

Dude come on...

Your argument loses all credibility when you have to pull this attack out. That's the crap people say when they've lost and have no more ground to stand on. Attack the topic, not the person.

Serious question... do you think you're smarter than Donald Trump?

 

[IrishLax]

It's not about a physical barrier, it's about the elimination of incentives. If employers were sincerely fearful of employing illegal aliens because it came with serious penalties and those aliens were unable to collect welfare benefits, then they'd have no reason to come (illegally) in the first place.

A wall is stupid, if that's what you're getting at.

Alright well then your argument isn't even an argument. Your solution is "war on drugs" for immigration. That doesn't work. Regardless of "welfare benefits," there is ALWAYS going to be incentive for undocumented immigrants to come here. But then instead of working in construction/agriculture/cleaning services/etc., if you removed the "corporate" angle they would turn to crime or something else under-the-table. Regardless, even if it did work, the effect would be disastrous, which was the main point of me asking you to clarify your original post.

First, construction costs would skyrocket, which would in turn cause a slowing of that sector of the economy (if a developer can build 2 buildings for $X and now can only build 1 building for $X then your jobs would "halved"... and that's not even considering the math of "is this profitable?" for a private entity or "is this in the budget?" for a public entity which would stifle many potential jobs). Roughly 4-5% of the country's GDP is directly attributed to construction, and much more of it is indirectly attributed. So a recession in that sector would lead to an overall recession of the economy and a rise in unemployment.

Second, food costs would go up, which would hurt poor people more than anything.

So by all means... if you want economic hardship, go right ahead with your plan.

 

[GoIrish41]

Dude come on...

Your argument loses all credibility when you have to pull this attack out. That's the crap people say when they've lost and have no more ground to stand on. Attack the topic, not the person.

Serious question... do you think you're smarter than Donald Trump?

He knows more about business than I will ever know. But overall I think almost everyone I know is smarter than Donald Trump.

 

[wizards8507]

Alright well then your argument isn't even an argument. Your solution is "war on drugs" for immigration. That doesn't work. Regardless of "welfare benefits," there is ALWAYS going to be incentive for undocumented immigrants to come here. But then instead of working in construction/agriculture/cleaning services/etc., if you removed the "corporate" angle they would turn to crime or something else under-the-table. Regardless, even if it did work, the effect would be disastrous, which was the main point of me asking you to clarify your original post.

First, construction costs would skyrocket, which would in turn cause a slowing of that sector of the economy (if a developer can build 2 buildings for $X and now can only build 1 building for $X then your jobs would "halved"... and that's not even considering the math of "is this profitable?" for a private entity or "is this in the budget?" for a public entity which would stifle many potential jobs). Roughly 4-5% of the country's GDP is directly attributed to construction, and much more of it is indirectly attributed. So a recession in that sector would lead to an overall recession of the economy and a rise in unemployment.

Second, food costs would go up, which would hurt poor people more than anything.

So by all means... if you want economic hardship, go right ahead with your plan.

Eliminate the minimum wage and everything you said goes out the window.

Before you argue with me, note that doing so would be equivalent to arguing that low wages are good enough for Mexicans but beneath the dignity of real 'Mericans. I don't think you want to make that argument, do you?

Your argument also eliminates any argument that includes legal status for these people, since legal status would subject them to minimum wage laws and have the same result as if native-born citizens filled those construction and farming jobs. The only way costs stay low in construction and food production, as you advocate, is if compensation for those folks stays "in the shadows."

 

[theclassickiller]

He knows more about business than I will ever know. But overall I think almost everyone I know is smarter than Donald Trump.

That's crazy talk. I'm sure there are some areas where you are smarter than he is, but I guarantee that a man as successful as Trump is no idiot. I think we'd be hard pressed to find someone around us with a higher IQ than his.

Anyway, as you were. I don't really have any input on the political side. As much as I love politics, I hate to argue it because the best point in the world won't change someone's stance .

 

[pkt77242]

That's crazy talk. I'm sure there are some areas where you are smarter than he is, but I guarantee that a man as successful as Trump is no idiot. I think we'd be hard pressed to find someone around us with a higher IQ than his.

Anyway, as you were. I don't really have any input on the political side. As much as I love politics, I hate to argue it because the best point in the world won't change someone's stance .

I don't think it is that Trump is an idiot. 1. Trump is smarter then most people. 2. Trump suffers because he thinks that he has all the answers even if he doesn't. In his mind Trump never thinks that he is wrong. That is a problem.

 

[IrishLax]

Eliminate the minimum wage and everything you said goes out the window.

Before you argue with me, note that doing so would be equivalent to arguing that low wages are good enough for Mexicans but beneath the dignity of real 'Mericans. I don't think you want to make that argument, do you?

Your argument also eliminates any argument that includes legal status for these people, since legal status would subject them to minimum wage laws and have the same result as if native-born citizens filled those construction and farming jobs. The only way costs stay low in construction and food production, as you advocate, is if compensation for those folks stays "in the shadows."

Not at all the argument I'm making. In fact, I haven't made an argument. Just pointed out how/why yours doesn't work.

My immigration reform involves 1 part tax code reform, 1 part entitlement reform, and 1 part immigration legislation reform.

 

[BGIF]

Not at all the argument I'm making. In fact, I haven't made an argument. Just pointed out how/why yours doesn't work.

My immigration reform involves 1 part tax code reform, 1 part entitlement reform, and 1 part immigration legislation reform.

What tax reform?

What entitlement reform?

What immigration legislation reform?

 

[IrishLax]

What tax reform?

What entitlement reform?

What immigration legislation reform?

Obviously, if I wanted to type up 2000 words on it I already would've.

 

[kmoose]

I think it is hilarious (and also a little sad and not at all surprising) that you are defending Trump. And you are doing so by questioning the precision of language that is being used to describe what he said. How about applying the same standard to the guy you are defending? "They are rapists" is a pretty definitive statement. That means all of them. It did not mean some of them. If he meant "some" he would have stated it, like when he stated "and some, I assume, are good people". Forget that he said Mexico is sending these people, which is asinine and false. You are defending what he said by trying to hold me to a standard that he did not even come close to demonstrating. It is funny because I am a dude posting on a message board and he was on a stage in front of hundreds of people (who he paid to be there, lol) and on national TV announcing his candidacy to be president of the United States. How about applying your rigid standard of precise language to his statements instead of mine? I stand by everything I said. It is not the blowhard Trump who bothers me (he has always been an obnoxious dick who boldly spews inappropriate and fabricated garbage). it is the people who defend and support him that I find the most objectionable because they are either not smart enough to know or lack the humanity to care if he is an ignorant bigot, and still support and defend him -- even if they have to attack people who are simply reacting to what he so clearly said.

I'm not defending Trump, or anything he said. I'm simply pointing out that you and others are throwing the word "bigot" around, based on things that he didn't even say. Then, when that is pointed out, you claim that he must have meant it however you interpreted it. I don't think he was right about the Mexican government sending criminals here purposely (at least I have not seen any proof indicating that they have), but the fact that he said it doesn't make him a bigot. It's your hatred of him that makes him a bigot to you. We aren't supposed to assume that Mike Brown assaulted Darren Wilson just because he robbed a convenience store (assaulting the owner in the process) minutes before; but it is ok for you to just assume Trump is a bigot based on something that he didn't even say, just because he has made non-PC statements in the past.

 

[BGIF]

Obviously, if I wanted to type up 2000 words on it I already would've.

So you've got nothing.

One liner programs or a manifesto, nothing in between, huh. Maybe a couple of sentences, maybe a paragraph.

You call out wizards and others for lack of substance yet post glittering generalities in response. Cute.




Yesterday you posted there was "no need for skilled labor". I took the time to respond in detail about the Federal H-1B program that takes in 65,000 skilled laborers a year and the 20,000 a year "skilled laborer waiver that academia lobbied for. There are over 650,000 skilled laborers filling jobs in the country to the detrimtriment of the indigenous workforce. The Federal Government, business world and academia not only see a need for skilled they fill it with immigrants.

Yet, we have the OWS unemployed and others protesting they can't find work. We have 20 million HS graduates a year. 1.8 college graduates annually, about 800,000 masters degrees, and 175,000 doctorates. How about filling those jobs with the educated here," first?

You posted today about the negative impact immigration reform would have on your industry, construction. I used to see many young black men working in construction, roofers, masons, carpenters, electricians, landscaping, etc. I don't see them today on the job. Many of those same jobs today are filled by recent immigrants, legal or illegal. Manufacturing jobs are greatly reduced in the past 20 years elinminating another job market. The local Tyson plant that used to have a predominately black workforce now has a predominantly Hispanic workforce.

Many of those unemployed black men and women don't show up in the unemployment numbers because there benefits ran out so they're no counted. Again how about using the indigenous workforce instead of immigrants, legal or illegal, that take the jobs away from other? At the least we'd keep the money circulating in our economy and not a dozens of foreign economies be they in Central America, Asia, or Western Europe.

For agricultural jobs that apparently our indigenous population, black, red, or white, don't want issue agricultural visas, seasonal or yearly, that the federal government can track though employer hiring and payroll documents.

 

[theclassickiller]

I don't think it is that Trump is an idiot. 1. Trump is smarter then most people. 2. Trump suffers because he thinks that he has all the answers even if he doesn't. In his mind Trump never thinks that he is wrong. That is a problem.

Fair point. In his defense (not saying I'm a Trump supporter, although I like that he stirs the pot) he has been right an AWFUL lot in life! I'd probably have a big head if I achieved what he has as well!

 

[BGIF]

I don't think it is that Trump is an idiot. 1. Trump is smarter then most people. 2. Trump suffers because he thinks that he has all the answers even if he doesn't. In his mind Trump never thinks that he is wrong. That is a problem.

Agreed. That said, could we not replace Trump's name with Hillary, Bill, Obama, W, or any of the other 19 candidates and your sentences still ring true?

 

[IrishLax]

So you've got nothing.

One liner programs or a manifesto, nothing in between, huh. Maybe a couple of sentences, maybe a paragraph.

No, I have too much of something. Here's what I was getting at:
-If I type of a short synopsis of something that is an incredibly complicated topic, then you and others will follow that post asking for expansion/clarification, which will devolve into multiple, long posts to explain it.
-If I type of everything in detail in one post, it'll be essay length.

You call out wizards and others for lack of substance yet post glittering generalities in response. Cute.

Exactly. Because he offered an opinion on what he believes is unacceptable, and how he believes to fix it. Given that he had broached the topic, asking for clarification where he stood is reasonable.

I did not once broach the topic of "my fix" until you two started asking for it from me... and I'm sorry, its my prerogative not respond at this time. Maybe this weekend.

Yesterday you posted there was "no need for skilled labor". I took the time to respond in detail about the Federal H-1B program that takes in 65,000 skilled laborers a year and the 20,000 a year "skilled laborer waiver that academia lobbied for. There are over 650,000 skilled laborers filling jobs in the country to the detrimtriment of the indigenous workforce. The Federal Government, business world and academia not only see a need for skilled they fill it with immigrants.

Yet, we have the OWS unemployed and others protesting they can't find work. We have 20 million HS graduates a year. 1.8 college graduates annually, about 800,000 masters degrees, and 175,000 doctorates. How about filling those jobs with the educated here," first?

Yes, and I read that post, and I agreed with your premise (at least how I understood it). And I almost responded to it talking about how in engineering we tend to import too much "skilled labor" and there are lots of Americans who do STEM while being promised that there is a "shortage" of engineers only to find the job market more saturated than they were led to believe.

Recently, a girl from Duke with a 3.9ish GPA posted in my high school alumni group that she was looking for a job in structural engineering in DC. I work for the top firm in the area, and I know lots of other people at other companies, so I forwarded her resume around... and last I heard she had no luck Many of these companies have a very large portion of their work force on visas as you described, and in a sense those people are filling jobs that US citizens could fill if given the chance.

During the height of the recession, we actually had some of these people fail to get their visas renewed because when we applied for renewal the Government came back and said "Ummm... no... you guys can definitely find a qualified American to do this job..." That should (probably) happen more often than it does.

You posted today about the negative impact immigration reform would have on your industry, construction. I used to see many young black men working in construction, roofers, masons, carpenters, electricians, landscaping, etc. I don't see them today on the job. Many of those same jobs today are filled by recent immigrants, legal or illegal. Manufacturing jobs are greatly reduced in the past 20 years elinminating another job market. The local Tyson plant that used to have a predominately black workforce now has a predominantly Hispanic workforce.

Many of those unemployed black men and women don't show up in the unemployment numbers because there benefits ran out so they're no counted. Again how about using the indigenous workforce instead of immigrants, legal or illegal, that take the jobs away from other? At the least we'd keep the money circulating in our economy and not a dozens of foreign economies be they in Central America, Asia, or Western Europe.

For agricultural jobs that apparently our indigenous population, black, red, or white, don't want issue agricultural visas, seasonal or yearly, that the federal government can track though employer hiring and payroll documents.

My experience is that you only see Americans willing to work skilled trades (electricians, plumbers, etc.) or fill "foreman" roles. Even on Federal jobs where they check your books and everyone has to get paid a certain amount, it's rare to see people willing to be a "laborer." I can't remember the last group of roofers, waterproofers, or masons I saw that wasn't predominantly Latino. I've also heard from foremen/supers that they find that Latinos in those roles work harder with less problems than whites+blacks who tend to have issues (either criminal or drug abuse) if they're willing to take a low level laborer job.

In short, I don't believe that you can fill the ranks of manual laborer US Citizens without drastically overhauling the pay structure to be more in line with "skilled labor" trades. I have no hard data or facts to back this up, but I think a large chunk of unemployed citizens would rather not work than toil in the sun for minimum wage. Electricians make about $25/hour, a laborer at minimum wage in Virginia makes $7.25 (though realistically many make about $10-$15/hour).

So if Latino immigrants didn't exist, and you had to replace all of them with homegrown US citizens, you're talking about potentially doubling or tripling the labor cost for manual labor to get people to fill the billets (and probably at reduced production). I'm not saying that's necessarily a good thing or a bad thing depending on how you want to look at it, but I don't think it's arguable that it would cause contraction of that sector of the economy the same way Seattle's $15 minimum wage is starting to have some ripple effects in certain industries (particularly food services).

 

[BGIF]

Thanks for the response.

When you get the time I'd still be interested in reading your 3 part approach. A paragraph on each part, or a list of thoughts would be fine.

 

[alohagoirish]

Jeb Bush on Iraq today....

" Taking out Sadam Hussein turned out to be a pretty good deal"

A pretty good deal he says....wow

We turned the country over to Iran--we drove 10s of thousands of refugee's into Syria that completely destabilized that country, we had 10s of thousands of US casualties & 100s of thousands dead Iraq citizens, we created ISIS & the void they would fill from a blend of AQ in Iraq and the former Bathists we send fleeing into Syria and western Iraq, we made our most profound political enemy in the region, IRAN, the de facto ruler of a new Shiite Iraq and enhanced their security and power in the middle east by leaps and bounds.

Yea it turned out to be a pretty good deal.....

i'm sorry but this bush surrounding himself with the same crew of advisors that pointed George into Iraq and making statements like "it turned out to be a pretty good deal" is proving to be as big an idiot as his brother!

 

[connor_in]

Thanks for the response.

When you get the time I'd still be interested in reading your 3 part approach. A paragraph on each part, or a list of thoughts would be fine.

college ruled paper, no double spacing

 

[EddytoNow]

Jeb Bush on Iraq today....

" Taking out Sadam Hussein turned out to be a pretty good deal"

A pretty good deal he says....wow

We turned the country over to Iran--we drove 10s of thousands of refugee's into Syria that completely destabilized that country, we had 10s of thousands of US casualties & 100s of thousands dead Iraq citizens, we created ISIS & the void they would fill from a blend of AQ in Iraq and the former Bathists we send fleeing into Syria and western Iraq, we made our most profound political enemy in the region, IRAN, the de facto ruler of a new Shiite Iraq and enhanced their security and power in the middle east by leaps and bounds.

Yea it turned out to be a pretty good deal.....

i'm sorry but this bush surrounding himself with the same crew of advisors that pointed George into Iraq and making statements like "it turned out to be a pretty good deal" is proving to be as big an idiot as his brother!

This sums up the mess in Iraq pretty accurately and explains why this country cannot afford another Bush in the White House. The Bushes sure do like their Iraq wars, don't they?

 

[pumpdog20]

To be fair, Bush said that withdrawing too early was the reason Iraq has gone to shit. Which is a way better argument than saying it was because we took out Saddam.

I don't think Saddam would have survived the Arab Spring had he still been in power. Which more than likely would have still created ISIS. But just my opinion.

 

[Cackalacky]

college ruled paper, no double spacing

Mind your margins.

 

[Rack Em]

To be fair, Bush said that withdrawing too early was the reason Iraq has gone to shit. Which is a way better argument than saying it was because we took out Saddam.

I don't think Saddam would have survived the Arab Spring had he still been in power. Which more than likely would have still created ISIS. But just my opinion.

It also prevents pregnancy.

 

[BGIF]

It also prevents pregnancy.

Many a surprised couple found out that doesn't always work.

 

[Rack Em]

Many a surprised couple found out that doesn't always work.

Gotta be better at pulling out than Bush or Obama.

 

[Grahambo]

This sums up the mess in Iraq pretty accurately and explains why this country cannot afford another Bush in the White House. The Bushes sure do like their Iraq wars, don't they?

It was less Bush and more the information he was told. When it comes to the presidency, its less about the person and more about who the people are that surrounds them.

To be fair, Bush said that withdrawing too early was the reason Iraq has gone to shit. Which is a way better argument than saying it was because we took out Saddam.

I don't think Saddam would have survived the Arab Spring had he still been in power. Which more than likely would have still created ISIS. But just my opinion.

They were around before then.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

He knows more about business than I will ever know. But overall I think almost everyone I know is smarter than Donald Trump.

Gardner is known for his 7 multiple intelligences. http://www.tecweb.org/styles/gardner.html

Which one are you referring to in terms of almost everyone you know being "smarter" than Trump? At the very least, the guy has spent his life managing money and people. Our current president and your socialist icon, Sanders, couldn't manage a hot dog stand at Fenway Park.