Conference Championships matter

[kmoose]

Bowlsby is trying to figure out if the risk is one his conference needs to take in the playoff era.

"In the end, I think our regular season is better than anybody else's regular season," he said. "How does that weigh in the equation? We play everybody and nobody else does. Is ours a better way of determining a champion or is theirs? Well, I don't think you can do better than a round-robin. Whether we should have a title game or not? I've advocated before that we should deregulate that rule and conferences should be able to decide how they do that I think that will happen. If anything this probably hastens that, the fact that we got left out and that there is some talk about it."

No one really cares if you played everyone in your conference or not. They are going to look at the 11 or 12 teams that you played, and weigh them against each other. The team with the more impressive resume' will "win". Conference Commissioners, ADs, and Coaches need to just STFU about "championships". Schedule the best competition you can, so that you don't have to worry about whose "championship" means more than the others.

 

[phork]

Shove Hawaii as the last game of the year every year. Even in nonbowl years you get a nice destination game.

That is, before Hawaii kills football altogether.

 

[wizards8507]

(k) Hawaii, Alaska, Puerto Rico. [FBS/FCS]
Any football games played in Hawaii, Alaska or Puerto Rico,respectively, either against or under the sponsorship of an active member institution located in Hawaii, Alaska or Puerto Rico, by a Division I member institution located outside the area in question.

That's very specific unfortunately. I was hoping maybe they'd be able to get away with something like playing Navy in Hawaii or Puerto Rico.

 

[wizards8507]

How is joining a conference a slippery slope, though??! That and loosening standards are MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE concepts, completely! If you want to make that correlation, that's a YOU problem, not an ND problem. ND has often been its own worst enemy in terms of keeping pace with the landscape of college football at the highest level. One's inability to CONSIDER this change merely perpetuates those challenges.

I'm fine with considering the proposal. It's the reasoning with which I have a problem. If it were in the best interest of the University and the program, fine. But you didn't say we should do it because it would be in the best interest of the University and the program. You essentially said we should do it because everyone else is doing it (i.e. "keeping up with the Joneses").

How you can go from me wanting to have a more balanced schedule and playing the same schools on a consistent basis by joining a conference and this paragraph above makes it impossible to have a discussion about it.

Wha? I wasn't talking to you.

 

[ThePiombino]

I'm fine with considering the proposal. It's the reasoning with which I have a problem. If it were in the best interest of the University and the program, fine. But you didn't say we should do it because it would be in the best interest of the University and the program. You essentially said we should do it because everyone else is doing it (i.e. "keeping up with the Joneses").

Thought it was implied based on my explanation that it was in the best interest of the program... Nothing about what I wrote suggests it was a lemming move. Stop splitting hairs.

 

[NDohio]

I'm in ACAMP's camp.

For me it is about relieving the schedule. As long as ND stays independent the schedule is going to continue to be too difficult. It's just too hard to get the record needed to get into the playoffs. If ND begins to lighten the schedule while an independent, I think that will hurt(especially without a 13th games). Joining the ACC takes care of all that.

Plus, it gives me more opportunities to see games...

I said this...

How?

You asked this ^ which prompted Piombino to give a reasonable response that would have been similar to mine. Your response to him is what is being discussed now. That paragraph is so far out that me joining the discussion now would be worthless.

Wha? I wasn't talking to you.

 

[wizards8507]

I said this...

You asked this ^ which prompted Piombino to give a reasonable response that would have been similar to mine. Your response to him is what is being discussed now. That paragraph is so far out that me joining the discussion now would be worthless.

The main gist of my "how" question was answered by neither you nor Piombino. I understand how a conference championship win would help us. What I don't understand is how joining the ACC would make our schedule any easier as you alleged in your first post to which I responded. If we want an easier schedule, we can go out and make one whether we're in the ACC or not.

At the end of the day I think it's probably more difficult to win 13 of 13 games when the last one is a championship game against a quality opponent than it would be to win 12 of 12 games, even if the 12 are slightly more difficult on average than the 13.

Unless you're talking about nonconference games against FCS schools, which I disagree with on principle. We're already scheduling UMass, Rice, Temple, Navy, etc. And does anyone really want to give up USC or Stanford?

 

[ThePiombino]

The main gist of my "how" question was answered by neither you nor Piombino. I understand how a conference championship win would help us. What I don't understand is how joining the ACC would make our schedule any easier as you alleged in your first post to which I responded. If we want an easier schedule, we can go out and make one whether we're in the ACC or not.

At the end of the day I think it's probably more difficult to win 13 of 13 games when the last one is a championship game against a quality opponent than it would be to win 12 of 12 games, even if the 12 are slightly more difficult on average than the 13.

Unless you're talking about nonconference games against FCS schools, which I disagree with on principle. We're already scheduling UMass, Rice, Temple, Navy, etc. And does anyone really want to give up USC or Stanford?

Then we can forget about ever getting a CFP bid. The only way ND gets a serious look is with both A) an undefeated record and B) a strong SoS. However, both OSU and FSU got into the CFP with a borderline joke of a SoS (and OSU with a terrible loss no less). Why? CCG win. This is the obstacle ND faces now. We can't have our cake and eat it too. We either join a conference and play weaker OOC games OR we maintain independence and keep scheduling beasts of a schedule - and even then you're at the mercy of the committee for a spot over two other conference champions. I just think ND's chances are better as a conference champ than the current option. ND could drop a game, early, and still recover - see OSU. A non-conf champ typically cannot - see Baylor and TCU.

 

[Johannes]

you forget Navy is no longer indepedent.

Foiled again!

 

[wizards8507]

Then we can forget about ever getting a CFP bid. The only way ND gets a serious look is with both A) an undefeated record and B) a strong SoS. However, both OSU and FSU got into the CFP with a borderline joke of a SoS (and OSU with a terrible loss no less). Why? CCG win. This is the obstacle ND faces now. We can't have our cake and eat it too. We either join a conference and play weaker OOC games OR we maintain independence and keep scheduling beasts of a schedule - and even then you're at the mercy of the committee for a spot over two other conference champions. I just think ND's chances are better as a conference champ than the current option. ND could drop a game, early, and still recover - see OSU. A non-conf champ typically cannot - see Baylor and TCU.

But this whole scenario ignores the 50/50 chance that we get to the conference championship game and lose. As much as a conference championship win would help us make the playoff, it also introduces the possibility of a conference championship game loss that keeps us out.

Which ND has a better shot at the playoff? 12-0 independent, or 12-1 with a CCG loss?

Which ND has a better shot at the playoff? 11-1 independent, or 11-2 with a CCG loss?

I'd rather have 12 toughish games throughout the season than some watered down schedule with a guaranteed tough game to end the season.

 

[kmoose]

Then we can forget about ever getting a CFP bid. The only way ND gets a serious look is with both A) an undefeated record and B) a strong SoS.

Bullshit! After the Navy game, ND was 7-1 and ranked #8 in the AP Poll and #10 in the CFP Poll. Had they finished off the season with wins over Arizona State, Northwestern, Louisville, and USC; they would most certainly have been right in the mix for the playoffs!

 

[zelezo vlk]

If we're idle:
50% chance we get jumped and we're out
50% chance we don't get jumped and we're in

If we play in a championship game:
50% chance we lose and we're out
50% chance we win and we're in

At the end of the day we're trading a "maybe we get jumped" with a "maybe we win the championship game." It's a net wash.

I'd say that it's still possible to win a conference championship game and not get in, though unlikely. Also, playing an extra game carries greater risk for injuries.

 

[Grahambo]

This is completely irrelevant to ND. Still 5 for 4 issue, it's not championship that matters it's the 13th game against a quality opponent that implicitly happens because of conference championship.

Last year it was apparent the only way ND gets in is going undefeated OR having a head-to-head over the team that's last OR there being multiple two-loss teams that are champions. That status quo is the same as long it's four slots... ND is NEVER getting in over a major conference champion with the same record and comparable SOS.

If it goes to 8 teams with 5 AQs + 3 at-large it'll be the most fair system college football has had by a long shot.

I would venture to guess that Mr. Swarbrick is waiting for this to happen before he pushes ND into a conference full time.

 

[ThePiombino]

Bullshit! After the Navy game, ND was 7-1 and ranked #8 in the AP Poll and #10 in the CFP Poll. Had they finished off the season with wins over Arizona State, Northwestern, Louisville, and USC; they would most certainly have been right in the mix for the playoffs!

Hardly bullshit. Why are we even talking about the AP poll? Completely meaningless here. And ASSUMING ND was able to take care of business the rest of the way, what truly quality win(s) would they have had that would have prevented OSU from jumping them for the 4th spot? Again, look at Baylor and TCU - that 1 loss was enough to play up the "no CCG" talk and justify them being omitted from the playoff. I'm not doubting ND would "be in it til the end", I'm merely saying that it would need to be the perfect storm for them to get over the hump. Bottom line - a 1-reg-season-loss conference champ ND gets in over a 1-loss non-conf champ ND. Would you agree on that? If so, I believe that strengthens my point.

 

[Irish#1]

(k) Hawaii, Alaska, Puerto Rico. [FBS/FCS]
Any football games played in Hawaii, Alaska or Puerto Rico,respectively, either against or under the sponsorship of an active member institution located in Hawaii, Alaska or Puerto Rico, by a Division I member institution located outside the area in question.

That's very specific unfortunately. I was hoping maybe they'd be able to get away with something like playing Navy in Hawaii or Puerto Rico.

How about we play Puerto Rico in Hawaii?

I bet the playoffs get expanded to eight teams sooner than most expect.

 

[kmoose]

Hardly bullshit. Why are we even talking about the AP poll? Completely meaningless here.

So you're going to completely ignore that I also provided ND's CFP Poll ranking? Or are you going to maintain that that ranking is meaningless, too?

And ASSUMING ND was able to take care of business the rest of the way, what truly quality win(s) would they have had that would have prevented OSU from jumping them for the 4th spot?

ND would have beaten Arizona State(15), Louisville(21), and USC(24); all of whom were ranked in the final regular season CFP poll.

I'm not doubting ND would "be in it til the end", I'm merely saying that it would need to be the perfect storm for them to get over the hump. Bottom line - a 1-reg-season-loss conference champ ND gets in over a 1-loss non-conf champ ND. Would you agree on that? If so, I believe that strengthens my point.

I don't agree that a 1 loss ACC Champ ND gets in over a 1 loss Independent ND. ND always has a solid SOS, and gets the same respect as if they were in a Power 5 conference.

 

[wizards8507]

So you're going to completely ignore that I also provided ND's CFP Poll ranking? Or are you going to maintain that that ranking is meaningless, too?





ND would have beaten Arizona State(15), Louisville(21), and USC(24); all of whom were ranked in the final regular season CFP poll.



I don't agree that a 1 loss ACC Champ ND gets in over a 1 loss Independent ND. ND always has a solid SOS, and gets the same respect as if they were in a Power 5 conference.

Plus, all of this bellyaching assumes we'd automatically win any conference championship game we were in. At best, adding a conference championship game gives us a 50% chance of being better off than we would have been without it (if we win) and a 50% chance of being worse off (if we lose). I'm not interested in flipping that coin because I think the perfect storm of concurrent events that would keep a "deserving ND" out of the playoff is extremely unlikely.

"Tell that to Baylor and TCU."

Yeah, I get it. We're neither Baylor or TCU.

ETA: To someone else's point, I agree that a 12-1 champion ND gets in above an 11-1 independent ND, but that completely ignores the risk of coming out of a championship game as 11-2 conference runner-up, in which case we're DEFINITELY out.

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[irishtrain]

Then we can forget about ever getting a CFP bid. The only way ND gets a serious look is with both A) an undefeated record and B) a strong SoS. However, both OSU and FSU got into the CFP with a borderline joke of a SoS (and OSU with a terrible loss no less). Why? CCG win. This is the obstacle ND faces now. We can't have our cake and eat it too. We either join a conference and play weaker OOC games OR we maintain independence and keep scheduling beasts of a schedule - and even then you're at the mercy of the committee for a spot over two other conference champions. I just think ND's chances are better as a conference champ than the current option. ND could drop a game, early, and still recover - see OSU. A non-conf champ typically cannot - see Baylor and TCU.

Key words here are 'at the mercy of the committee'-I think Jack's waiting as long as he can to see if this fiasco expands to eight teams-if not we more than likely join the ACC

 

[ThePiombino]

So you're going to completely ignore that I also provided ND's CFP Poll ranking? Or are you going to maintain that that ranking is meaningless, too?

In all honesty, what is the point of a ranking system that means jack shit in week 8? The committee made it clear that there would be significant changes on a week-to-week basis. Why does the ranking system even exist prior to the final few weeks other than TV and $$$? That poll is about as useful as the AP and Coaches polls, prior to CCG week. I doubt deny ND was ranked 8, but as other teams proved - it means nothing until the final polls were out and all the CCGs were played.

ND would have beaten Arizona State(15), Louisville(21), and USC(24); all of whom were ranked in the final regular season CFP poll.

Of that bunch, ASU is the ONLY team that would have been ranked had ND won out which entirely nullifies our claim to a tough SoS.

I don't agree that a 1 loss ACC Champ ND gets in over a 1 loss Independent ND. ND always has a solid SOS, and gets the same respect as if they were in a Power 5 conference.

ND always goes into the season with a solid SoS, but that isn't always the case at year's end. And as for respect of a P5 school- that and a $1 gets you on the bus...maybe. It's all about perception, specifically the committee's perception and they made it VERY CLEAR that conference championships would hold weight. Writing is on the wall.

+++++

Key words here are 'at the mercy of the committee'-I think Jack's waiting as long as he can to see if this fiasco expands to eight teams-if not we more than likely join the ACC

I actually think this is key - this is MUCH MORE of a non-issue once we expand to 8 teams, which I would think is a matter of when, not if.

 

[Black Irish]

Let's also keep in mind that the Big-12-not-having-a-CCG was a bit of a different situation then what we're talking about regarding Notre Dame. TCU and Baylor cancelled each other out, being so closely matched with regard to who had the better SOS, best win, etc. At the end of it all, there were 3 teams vying for that fourth CFB playoff spot: OSU, TCU, And Baylor. I'm guessing more than a few voters threw up their hands with regard to how close of a call it was between TCU & Baylor and said "Aw, f**k it. Let's just put OSU in there."

Let's say Notre Dame rolled through the rest of their season after the FSU lost, and were sitting at 11-1. I think the fourth slot would've come down to ND versus OSU, with TCU and Baylor still cancelling each other out. What happened with regard to the Big 12 this past season is largely a Big 12problem. Notre Dame would not find itself in exactly that situation, so using the "let's join a conference because of what happened to the Big 12" logic is premature and not quite on-the-nose.

 

[IrishinSyria]

If I had more time, I would go through past seasons and see how often each conference's champion only had 1 or 0 losses. I have a hunch that it's a pretty rare occurrence.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Basically, as I see it:

Schedule as is
ND goes 12-0: in
ND goes 11-1: in, unless 4 of 5 SEC, BIG X, BIG XII, PAC-10, ACC champs all go 13-0 or 12-1.
ND goes 10-2: out

Schedule with CCG

ND goes 13-0: In
ND goes 12-1: In, unless 4 0 or 1 loss champions with better schedules
ND goes 11-2: Out
ND goes 10-3: Out

Realistically, you significantly increase your chances of an automatic out scenario (ND goes into CCG 11-1, loses) while only increasing your odds of getting into the playoffs marginally. I'm really not convinced an extra game helps.

 

[wizards8507]

Basically, as I see it:

Schedule as is
ND goes 12-0: in
ND goes 11-1: in, unless 4 of 5 SEC, BIG X, BIG XII, PAC-10, ACC champs all go 13-0 or 12-1.
ND goes 10-2: out

Schedule with CCG

ND goes 13-0: In
ND goes 12-1: In, unless 4 0 or 1 loss champions with better schedules
ND goes 11-2: Out
ND goes 10-3: Out

Realistically, you significantly increase your chances of an automatic out scenario (ND goes into CCG 11-1, loses) while only increasing your odds of getting into the playoffs marginally. I'm really not convinced an extra game helps.

Church.

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[kmoose]

A playoff system would end all of the debate by settling things on the field.



I don't recall anyone of importance saying that Ohio State simply playing in and winning a Conference Championship Game was the difference between them and TCU or Baylor. It was the way Ohio State absolutely destroyed Wisconsin, with their 3rd team QB, that made the difference. That, and TCU and Baylor's absolutely pathetic Out of Conference schedule. Baylor played SMU, Northwestern State(I-AA), and Buffalo out of conference. TCU played SMU, Minnesota, and Samford(I-AA). Ohio State played Navy, Virginia Tech, Kent State and Cincinnati; not a murderer's row, but they are all legitimate Div I-A teams.

 

[wizards8507]

A playoff system would end all of the debate by settling things on the field.



I don't recall anyone of importance saying that Ohio State simply playing in and winning a Conference Championship Game was the difference between them and TCU or Baylor. It was the way Ohio State absolutely destroyed Wisconsin, with their 3rd team QB, that made the difference. That, and TCU and Baylor's absolutely pathetic Out of Conference schedule. Baylor played SMU, Northwestern State(I-AA), and Buffalo out of conference. TCU played SMU, Minnesota, and Samford(I-AA). Ohio State played Navy, Virginia Tech, Kent State and Cincinnati; not a murderer's row, but they are all legitimate Div I-A teams.

Exactly. Baylor and TCU at 11-1 is really 9-1 or 8-1 with two or three FCS forfeits.

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[phork]

Frankly if you play a D1AA team that win should not count, a loss should be counted as 2.

 

[kmoose]

Frankly if you play a D1AA team that win should not count, a loss should be counted as 2.

You should not be eligible for the playoffs if you schedule a 1-AA team

 

[ulukinatme]

Last year it was apparent the only way ND gets in is going undefeated OR having a head-to-head over the team that's last OR there being multiple two-loss teams that are champions. That status quo is the same as long it's four slots... ND is NEVER getting in over a major conference champion with the same record and comparable SOS.

If it goes to 8 teams with 5 AQs + 3 at-large it'll be the most fair system college football has had by a long shot.

Damn, I was saying this last year. Before the season started I made the statement that we really had to run the table if we stood any chance of getting into the playoff because 1 loss probably wasn't going to cut it unless multiple Power 5 conference champions had 2 losses, and even then there would be no guarantee. I was told I was wrong by at least a few people, that our SoS with just 1 loss would carry us Looking back, FSU went undefeated and went #3 while Baylor and TCU got left out with one loss and likely one of them would have went ahead of us in that scenario.

Given the changes in the college football landscape and the playoff it may behoove us to join the ACC as a full member. We could probably retain USC/Stanford as non-conference opponents for the yearly November Cali trip as well as Navy. That could all change if the Playoff ever expands to 8 teams though, which I think may happen in the coming years. Money will drive it, as well as more Baylors/TCUs crying out that they've been left out.

 

[stlnd01]

From a "making the playoff" perspective the two biggest problems with our schedule are:

A) It's front-loaded: Aside from maybe the Thanksgiving weekend finale, we tend to be through with big games by mid-October (while there's still a mess of unproven undefeateds). Then, while other powers are playing their big conference rivalry games in November, we're doing service academies and the lower tiers of the ACC, and it's hard to gain ground. We ask a lot for voters to remember our best wins back from September.

B) Too many "no-win" games. By this I mean Pittsburgh, BC, Louisville, Navy. Teams that are good enough that they might beat us, but not good enough that we score any points for beating them. The selection committee isn't nearly as impressed with depth of schedule as they are with your top few wins. And the teams most likely to be rated high at the end of the season have a couple of very impressive wins, and a bunch of cupcakes, like FSU and OSU last year. It's the antithesis of our approach to scheduling.

I agree the conference championship game gives another chance for a marquee win. But I think the people who say only conference champions should make the playoff lack any imagination. And I think Swarbrick will do the savvy thing, figure we'll be at eight teams soon, and hold tight.