ESPN way too early 2015 poll: ND #12

[IrishinSyria]

That's literally the definition of selfish. I seriously mean literal, textbook definition.

Selfish implies a complete lack of interest in others. Here, he could reasonably say that " I value an extra year with my teammates at $2 million dollars" and still have good reason to walk away. Playing college sports was the best experience of my life. But I wouldn't risk millions of dollars to do it*. I don't think that's selfish (literally or in the common parlance). It's just rational decision making.



*especially if I was realistically only educated at a high school level.

 

[RallySonsOfND]

Here is to hoping that this schedule turns out like 2012s!

 

[Luckylucci]

I think the schedule is much harder than many think. 8-4 is about right.

Not saying you are right or wrong just curious. Where are the 4 losses?

 

[IrishinSyria]

Not saying you are right or wrong just curious. Where are the 4 losses?

3 of Texas, G Tech, USC, Clemson and one of rest of schedule?

Personally, I think 8-4 would be a disappointing year, but I don't think it's all that unlikely if a couple things don't go our way. We could be an objectively good team next year and still hit 4 losses.

 

[Luckylucci]

Just curious where people see the losses at. I think we split Clemson/Gt/USC/Stanford. End up 10-2. I expect Texas to be better but I also watched their bowl game. They could get better and still not be that big of a threat.

 

[L-cart ND-ana]

I am not getting the G Tech love. I know, the option...

But, they lose 65% of their rushing yards and 90% of their receiving yards. They get Thomas back and no one else of significance in the skill positions. I think it will be a tough game because of the option, but it shouldn't be one of our toughest games. Maybe I am crazy.

I think they lose most of their O-Line and their whole D-Line also.....

 

[IrishLax]

Selfish implies a complete lack of interest in others. Here, he could reasonably say that " I value an extra year with my teammates at $2 million dollars" and still have good reason to walk away. Playing college sports was the best experience of my life. But I wouldn't risk millions of dollars to do it*. I don't think that's selfish (literally or in the common parlance). It's just rational decision making..

This is just not true. In no way is it rational, it's a completely ignorant way to approach your draft stock/future as a player.

I hate debating semantics on the internet, but sitting out a year of college to be fresh for the league is selfish. It's an exclusively self-interested act which is the definition of selfish. From Merriam:

concerned excessively or exclusively with oneself : seeking or concentrating on one's own advantage, pleasure, or well-being without regard for others

You're putting your well-being ahead of any interest in team. This isn't even debatable, and this reflects REALLY poorly on your motivations as a potential draft pick. In fact, the personnel guru for the 49ers/Seahawks who just came over to the Redskins was talking about this the other day in his introductory press conference. He said specifically that one of the things they put emphasis on over height/weight/speed is intrinsic motivation, character, and desire to win. He said it's more important to have hungry, team-first guys who will do anything to win for the team than the biggest/fastest/strongest who only care about themselves. These are direct quotes from a top personnel guy less than a week ago.

Anyone who says "I'm not playing this year to save my body for the NFL" is implicitly saying "I'm not playing because I don't care about winning or this team relative to my own financial gain." That will KILL your draft stock and the attempt to protect your future/money will instead cost you millions upon millions upfront... and then you'll be rolling the dice anyways in the NFL that you don't get hurt in not just 1 season but in 3 straight so you can get to the second contract.

It's common sense and why no one has ever done it. The only people who have even tried something similar to getting out "early" are Mike Williams and Maurice Clarett failing in the same year, and that was a very unique situation.

 

[L-cart ND-ana]

If ND loses 4 games that would be a major disappointment.

USC and Clemson are going to be good. GTech should be on the decline in my opinion, they are losing A LOT. Stanford will be Stanford but it seems the farther away they get from Harbaugh the less scary they are.

USC right after Navy has loss all over it.

 

[IrishinSyria]

This is just not true. In no way is it rational, it's a completely ignorant way to approach your draft stock/future as a player.

I hate debating semantics on the internet, but sitting out a year of college to be fresh for the league is selfish. It's an exclusively self-interested act which is the definition of selfish. From Merriam:


You're putting your well-being ahead of any interest in team. This isn't even debatable, and this reflects REALLY poorly on your motivations as a potential draft pick. In fact, the personnel guru for the 49ers/Seahawks who just came over to the Redskins was talking about this the other day in his introductory press conference. He said specifically that one of the things they put emphasis on over height/weight/speed is intrinsic motivation, character, and desire to win. He said it's more important to have hungry, team-first guys who will do anything to win for the team than the biggest/fastest/strongest who only care about themselves. These are direct quotes from a top personnel guy less than a week ago.

Anyone who says "I'm not playing this year to save my body for the NFL" is implicitly saying "I'm not playing because I don't care about winning or this team relative to my own financial gain." That will KILL your draft stock and the attempt to protect your future/money will instead cost you millions upon millions upfront... and then you'll be rolling the dice anyways in the NFL that you don't get hurt in not just 1 season but in 3 straight so you can get to the second contract.

It's common sense and why no one has ever done it. The only people who have even tried something similar to getting out "early" are Mike Williams and Maurice Clarett failing in the same year, and that was a very unique situation.

Is it selfish to leave after your 3rd year? You're putting your self-interest ahead of any interest of the team.

I mean, I don't love the idea. It seems wrong, for all the reasons you've articulated. But let's be clear: college football programs and the NCAA don't give a shit about their players. The 3 year rule exists for the benefit of the NCAA, not for the athletes. Once the season starts, sure, the player owes the team 100%. But that obligation doesn't start until the season does. I don't see the difference between Ezekiel taking a year off to avoid injury and improve physically and Jameis leaving Florida St for the draft or Braxton Miller transferring to a new program. In all three cases, the players are considering their teammates and the relationship they have with them, but they are ultimately putting their best interest first.

I think NFL scouts will find plenty of "desire to win" and "intrinsic motivation" in Elliott's game tape. He showcased a smash-mouth brand of football on the biggest stage possible. If he spends the (hypothetical) off-year productively (think more Golson, less Clarett), they might even start throwing in words like "focused" and "disciplined".

Ideally, he'd be able to declare for the draft now. He's clearly ready, and nobody would accuse him of quitting on his team if he were able to do so.

 

[IrishLax]

Is it selfish to leave after your 3rd year? You're putting your self-interest ahead of any interest of the team.

I mean, I don't love the idea. It seems wrong, for all the reasons you've articulated. But let's be clear: college football programs and the NCAA don't give a shit about their players. The 3 year rule exists for the benefit of the NCAA, not for the athletes. Once the season starts, sure, the player owes the team 100%. But that obligation doesn't start until the season does. I don't see the difference between Ezekiel taking a year off to avoid injury and improve physically and Jameis leaving Florida St for the draft or Braxton Miller transferring to a new program. In all three cases, the players are considering their teammates and the relationship they have with them, but they are ultimately putting their best interest first.

Actually, the 3 year rule is an NFL rule. The NFL has it because they don't want undeveloped guys declaring after their freshman or sophomore year... they want a larger sample size. There have been other pro football leagues that have not had the 3 year rule, and you could leave from the NCAA earlier to play there if you wanted.

I think NFL scouts will find plenty of "desire to win" and "intrinsic motivation" in Elliott's game tape. He showcased a smash-mouth brand of football on the biggest stage possible. If he spends the (hypothetical) off-year productively (think more Golson, less Clarett), they might even start throwing in words like "focused" and "disciplined".

Ideally, he'd be able to declare for the draft now. He's clearly ready, and nobody would accuse him of quitting on his team if he were able to do so.

It's the bolded we disagree on. I think we actually aren't that far apart on the other stuff, but I think the backlash would be HUGE... from OSU fans, teammates, coaches, and scouts.

But I guess we'll never know until someone tries it!

 

[returnofthemack]

Just curious where people see the losses at. I think we split Clemson/Gt/USC/Stanford. End up 10-2. I expect Texas to be better but I also watched their bowl game. They could get better and still not be that big of a threat.

You're forgetting the WTF loss

 

[Crazy Balki]

I mean, I kind of agree, but it's easier to say that when you're gambling with someone else's money. He could sign with an agent tomorrow and spend the year doing nothing but working out. He'd be a lock top-5 pick. Say he went 5 overall: in 2014, that would have come with a contract worth $18.6 million*. Now say he comes back and suffers a couple of minor injuries. Nothing too serious, but enough to slow him down a little and keep him from showing his physical potential. He might drop to the bottom half of the first round. Let's say #15. That's a contract worth $9.5 million. Then, of course, there's a chance that he blows out his knee or something and loses everything.

If you'd already been the MVP of a National Championship game, would you risk $18 million + for a shot at repeating?



*source: http://overthecap.com/nfl-rookie-salary-cap-2014.php

Normally, this would be beyond stupid, but it actually holds water for a RB. They have by far the shortest shelf life of any position in football, and lord knows Meyer will run him ragged next year. The same reasoning has me believe Folston will leave early if he has a good year in 2015.

 

[Crazy Balki]

You're forgetting the WTF loss

What are you talking about? That only happened last year with Northwestern...and the year before that with Pitt...and 2 years before that with USF...and the year before that with Tulsa/Navy...and the year before that with UConn...and the year before that with Syracuse...oh shit.

 

[Crazy Balki]

3 of Texas, G Tech, USC, Clemson and one of rest of schedule?

Personally, I think 8-4 would be a disappointing year, but I don't think it's all that unlikely if a couple things don't go our way. We could be an objectively good team next year and still hit 4 losses.

Wow. I don't think we can suck bad enough to lose 3 of 4 in those games. I'm sorry. I could possibly see USC and maybe Clemson and even that's a stretch, but we'd have to SERIOUSLY underwhelm to do that. More than likely we go 3-1 or just as likely sweep that slate. Still need to watch out for the WTF loss. Pretty much have had one every year, minus 2012 (and they were severely close to having one against Pitt or Purdue).

 

[PLACforever]

 

[PLACforever]

 

[NDRock]

You're forgetting the WTF loss

I'm assuming either BC or Pitt will upset us, they both play us tough.

 

[NDRock]

Not saying you are right or wrong just curious. Where are the 4 losses?

No idea but history says they will come, often where we least expect it.

 

[Irish#1]

Actually, the 3 year rule is an NFL rule. The NFL has it because they don't want undeveloped guys declaring after their freshman or sophomore year... they want a larger sample size. There have been other pro football leagues that have not had the 3 year rule, and you could leave from the NCAA earlier to play there if you wanted.



It's the bolded we disagree on. I think we actually aren't that far apart on the other stuff, but I think the backlash would be HUGE... from OSU fans, teammates, coaches, and scouts.

But I guess we'll never know until someone tries it!

Don't think there would be a backlash from NFL teams. If a player can play, they'll take him unless he's shown to have some serious issues in his backpack. Look at Ryan Lief. His background check showed some major concerns when it came to attitude, plus he was in a number of altercations while at WSU, yet he was being touted as a possible #1 pick.

Clowney was being questioned about his selfishness and look where he got drafted.

 

[phork]

ND way too early odds to win it all next year is 20/1.

 

[ThePiombino]

ND way too early odds to win it all next year is 20/1.

Some local perspective:

OSU 6/1
UM 65/1

 

[gkIrish]

This argument doesn't work, because if you "shut it down" you show you're an incredibly selfish person. And if you show you're an incredibly selfish care-about-me-more-than-winning person, then your draft stock will plummet. No one will want to spend their first pick on someone considered a diva.

 

[Luckylucci]

You're forgetting the WTF loss

I'm going to assume that BK and BVG can get this ship moving in the right direction and those won't happen as often. Ex. injuries I don't think we would have had those this year. A reasonably healthy football team doesn't lose to NW or UL. Our D would've been able to stop the run better which is what killed us in those two games. If we lose to FSU, ASU, and USC only there are no WTF losses.

 

[ACamp1900]

Just curious where people see the losses at.

I see all four or five loses coming next season. T.I.N.D.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Statistically significant on Day and Stanley returns. Last year Irish brought back 65 career starts on OL & DL combined. Next year: 141.</p>— Irish Illustrated (@PeteSampson_) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeteSampson_/status/555430788024385537">January 14, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[IrishLax]

Isn't this exactly the counterpoint? People said Clowney should sit out his last year of college, but he didn't... and because he didn't, his bad junior season and injuries didn't hurt his stock at all... whereas if he had sat out, who knows?

 

[Nick Setta]

Mike Williams sat out and it cost him his career dude was a STUD.

Anyway 2015 is the make or break year for Kelly.

 

[gkIrish]

Isn't this exactly the counterpoint? People said Clowney should sit out his last year of college, but he didn't... and because he didn't, his bad junior season and injuries didn't hurt his stock at all... whereas if he had sat out, who knows?

No that's not at all how I saw it and read about it. The consensus is that Clowney completely quit on USCe in terms of effort. Took a ton of plays off. If you remember before the draft the talk was all about whether Clowney was lazy and/or didn't care about the game itself enough. My point was just that if you are talented enough, you will get drafted highly regardless of other issues. Jameis has a ton of off-field concerns and is still going to be a high pick.

By no means do I think EE should sit out a year (this is what insurance is for) but I think he would still be a 1st-2nd round pick if he did.

 

[Grahambo]

This argument doesn't work, because if you "shut it down" you show you're an incredibly selfish person. And if you show you're an incredibly selfish care-about-me-more-than-winning person, then your draft stock will plummet. No one will want to spend their first pick on someone considered a diva.

I couldn't care any less if he thinks he is doing what is best for him by shutting it down. For his career arc however, I think it's an awful move. Football, like all sports, is a game of reps. You need reps and you need game reps. You play. You get experience. You get better. Sitting for a year will not make you better.

 

[Grahambo]

Isn't this exactly the counterpoint? People said Clowney should sit out his last year of college, but he didn't... and because he didn't, his bad junior season and injuries didn't hurt his stock at all... whereas if he had sat out, who knows?

And he still would probably get hurt. Football is a game of injuries. Its only a matter of when.