Kelly NFL Rumors

[Ndaccountant]

Name me a coach who: (1) is willing to come to ND; and (2) would definitely win more consistently than Kelly. Note that certainty of improvement is important here, because there's a huge amount of risk involved with the coaching carousel.

If you can't, then all this bluster about championships and higher standards is little more than entitled whining.

That isn't a commentary on the merits of Kelly, but rather how far ND has dropped in the national landscape and I think that is an entirely sad thing to contemplate.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

The crux of all coaching questions is how much is ND willing to pay. For $8 million a year name the coach (reasonably) and they'll come to ND. For $3-$5 million the choices are much more limited.

Do we have any reason to believe that Swarbrick and Jenkins are ready to pay top dollar? I haven't seen one. NDNation has been rehashing this argument for decades now: "If only the BoT/ White/ Monk would open their wallets, we could lure Stoops to ND and be winning titles again within 3 years..."

We don't know how much ND pays exactly, but there are plenty of reasons to doubt that it's high enough to get anyone we wanted.

 

[DCIrish]

Name me a coach who: (1) is willing to come to ND; and (2) would definitely win more consistently than Kelly. Note that certainty of improvement is important here, because there's a huge amount of risk involved with the coaching carousel.

If you can't, then all this bluster about championships and higher standards is little more than entitled whining.

I'm not one of these people saying he should be fired or even on the hot seat. It's just not some huge accomplishment to win 8 games every year at a place like ND when you have the resources he has like some seem to think.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

That isn't a commentary on the merits of Kelly, but rather how far ND has dropped in the national landscape and I think that is an entirely sad thing to contemplate.

Partly, yes. In the glory days, ND enjoyed a lot of advantages over the rest of CFB that have since been lost. Whenever I read someone beating his chest about getting ND "back where it belongs," they tend not to have a good grasp of how difficult it is to win in South Bend these days.

But my post above is mostly about how incredibly risky the coaching carousel is. Kelly's floor at ND has been 8-5, and that is: (1) pretty damned good considering our usual schedule; and (2) a massive improvement over his three predecessors. Murtaugh wrote a good article at OFD a while back explaining how avoiding really bad seasons is way more important than chasing great ones, because the former typically cause serious damage to a program.

If we fire Kelly--a known quantity with a very high floor--because we're unhappy with his apparent ceiling, there's a very real possibility we could end up with a Kiffin, Hoke or Zook. NDFB was at its nadir when Kelly took over, and he brought us to the title game within 3 years. He's never won fewer than 8 games, even throughout an endless stream of injuries to key players, academic suspensions, and scandals. When you fully consider the risks involved with making a change, there's really no case to be made for firing Kelly at all.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I'm not one of these people saying he should be fired or even on the hot seat. It's just not some huge accomplishment to win 8 games every year at a place like ND when you have the resources he has like some seem to think.

He does have a lot of resources at his disposal, but he also has a lot of restrictions and challenges that other top coaches don't have to contend with--like scheduling (no cupcakes), roster management (no oversigning, gray-shirting, or JuCos), academic requirements that severely decrease the pool of eligible recruits, etc. Then factor in all the extraneous bullsh!t that has rocked the program over the last five years, and I have no problem admitting that I'm impressed with Kelly for winning no fewer than 8 games every year he's been here.

 

[Emcee77]

Partly, yes. In the glory days, ND enjoyed a lot of advantages over the rest of CFB that have since been lost. Whenever I read someone beating his chest about getting ND "back where it belongs," they tend not to have a good grasp of how difficult it is to win in South Bend these days.

But my post above is mostly about how incredibly risky the coaching carousel is. Kelly's floor at ND has been 8-5, and that is: (1) pretty damned good considering our usual schedule; and (2) a massive improvement over his three predecessors. Murtaugh wrote a good article at OFD a while back explaining how avoiding really bad seasons is way more important than chasing great ones, because the former typically cause serious damage to a program.

If we fire Kelly--a known quantity with a very high floor--because we're unhappy with his apparent ceiling, there's a very real possibility we could end up with a Kiffin, Hoke or Zook. NDFB was at its nadir when Kelly took over, and he brought us to the title game within 3 years. He's never won fewer than 8 games, even throughout an endless stream of injuries to key players, academic suspensions, and scandals. When you fully consider the risks involved with making a change, there's really no case to be made for firing Kelly at all.

Ahh truth truth truth truth. I don't know why the truth of this seems to elude so many people.

It's not so much that Kelly is doing a perfect job. It's that making a change is incredibly risky, and the guy who currently has the job is doing pretty darn good, and we know his floor is high, and we don't know how high his ceiling is. Could be NC-high. He's already gotten us pretty close.

 

[irishog77]

He does have a lot of resources at his disposal, but he also has a lot of restrictions and challenges that other top coaches don't have to contend with--like scheduling (no cupcakes), roster management (no oversigning, gray-shirting, or JuCos), academic requirements that severely decrease the pool of eligible recruits, etc. Then factor in all the extraneous bullsh!t that has rocked the program over the last five years, and I have no problem admitting that I'm impressed with Kelly for winning no fewer than 8 games every year he's been here.

In these last few posts, Whiskey, you seem to leave an implication through your defense of Kelly that you (we) should be satisfied with Kelly.

The 12-0 season was magical. It reminded many of us what it was like to cheer for ND in its glory days and demonstrated to those fans too young to remember what any glory days were like, what winning at ND is truly like. Then the championship game happened. It was disturbingly clear to every person watching that ND was not anywhere close to championship material. Then we heard excuses from Kelly as to why.

Fast forward to almost 2 years later, and it is still disturbingly clear that ND is not anywhere close to championship material. Could they be in the future? Sure. But after 62 games into Kelly's tenure, what evidence has he shown to demonstrate this? And realistically, 50-60 other teams and schools can say that they will contend for a title in the future too.

I think an 8-win floor is certainly better than a 3-win floor. But I also don't think floor results = ceiling potential.

 

[MJ12666]

I think Kelly has done a pretty good job given his recruiting restrictions. However as with many coaches, over time fans get a little bored with them and also start to expect more. Heck I am a Yankees fan and I couldn't wait for Torre to leave. Now I look back and wonder what I was thinking. Anyway I really can't see Kelly taking another college job. A pro job is a different story.

Also the 8 win mark is not the same today as it was years ago. I think in the mid 60's ND was only playing 10 games so winning 8 games back then was significantly different then today when we play 13 games (including the bowl).

 

[Booslum31]

Ahh truth truth truth truth. I don't know why the truth of this seems to elude so many people.

It's not so much that Kelly is doing a perfect job. It's that making a change is incredibly risky, and the guy who currently has the job is doing pretty darn good, and we know his floor is high, and we don't know how high his ceiling is. Could be NC-high. He's already gotten us pretty close.

Well said Emcee. This is a board where we share opinions. However, I can't see how anyone would think that there is a better option out there than Kelly. He has taken us sooo far. I know that Saturday's lost felt very familiar to those of us that endured the last three coaches. This team is so damn young and thin at a few positions we need to be patient here. We are always going to question our coaches play calling. Hell, I remember hearing many people rant about how horrible Holtz was on game day. I hope like crazy he stays for a long time...and works a fullback in once .

 

[Emcee77]

In these last few posts, Whiskey, you seem to leave an implication through your defense of Kelly that you (we) should be satisfied with Kelly.

The 12-0 season was magical. It reminded many of us what it was like to cheer for ND in its glory days and demonstrated to those fans too young to remember what any glory days were like, what winning at ND is truly like. Then the championship game happened. It was disturbingly clear to every person watching that ND was not anywhere close to championship material. Then we heard excuses from Kelly as to why.

Fast forward to almost 2 years later, and it is still disturbingly clear that ND is not anywhere close to championship material. Could they be in the future? Sure. But after 62 games into Kelly's tenure, what evidence has he shown to demonstrate this? And realistically, 50-60 other teams and schools can say that they will contend for a title in the future too.

I think an 8-win floor is certainly better than a 3-win floor. But I also don't think floor results = ceiling potential.

I think there is a huge factor that no one is considering. Tell me the last time ND played a game that it didn't have a realistic chance to win in the second half.

I honestly can't remember. 2011 ... every game was winnable. 2012 ... every game but the NCG. 2013 ... every game. 2014 ... every game.

In each of those seasons, we were a few breaks from being 2014 FSU.

 

[Grahambo]

He wasn't hired to win 8 games every year. No ones expects championships every year, but the standard should be higher than that.

I agree. I was supporting the claim that firing BK and hiring a different coach isn't as simple.

If BK leaves then it's a different story.

 

[T Town Tommy]

I agree. I was supporting the claim that firing BK and hiring a different coach isn't as simple.

If BK leaves then it's a different story.

And who would be legitimate candidates to take BK's place? I can't think of many.

Bottom line for me on Kelly: He has done a lot to get ND football back to that level of respectibility. Maybe more than any other coach could have. Getting to the next level - 10 win seasons - is going to be a much harder task. But outside of a few games here and there, he has had the Irish in almost all of them.

The next 2-3 years recruiting will be huge for him. It will go a long way in determining if the Irish can get to that magical 10 win ceiling. Once he can get there consistently, it opens the door for even more top notch recruits to consider the Irish. And, it takes those players to elevate the program, much like it takes a solid coaching staff. It's like the old saying "it's not just X's and O's; it's also the Jimmie's and Joe's."

 

[Whiskeyjack]

In these last few posts, Whiskey, you seem to leave an implication through your defense of Kelly that you (we) should be satisfied with Kelly.

No, not satisfied. I want to see ND win another championship as badly as anyone. But some perspective is needed when the possibility of a coaching change (inevitably) comes up year after year. Given: (1) the state of the program when Kelly took over; (2) Kelly's relatively high floor; and (3) the terrifying risk involved with jumping back on the coaching carousel, I think the suggestion should be a total non-starter.

 

[irishog77]

I think there is a huge factor that no one is considering. Tell me the last time ND played a game that it didn't have a realistic chance to win in the second half.

I honestly can't remember. 2011 ... every game was winnable. 2012 ... every game but the NCG. 2013 ... every game. 2014 ... every game.

In each of those seasons, we were a few breaks from being 2014 FSU.

I agree. And that is one of the main reasons I've leaned on the pro-Kelly side of the fence since he began coaching games (but after almost 5 years, I've never altogether gotten entirely off the fence...but I digress).

I don't really support that line of thinking though. I mean can't a counter argument simply be, so what? A loss is still a loss. And then further, doesn't that argument demonstrate a pattern? The team finds ways to lose games.

 

[alohagoirish]

Yep, all the games we lost were winnable, but that's a two edge sword. Games were close enough to have lost to Stanford/UNC/Navy---coupled with the three losses we have, that's flirting with 4-6 .

 

[Irish#1]

So we struggle the last few weeks and Kelly's leaving or people want him gone! lol lol lol

BK made a number of bad decisions that cost us the game against Northwestern, but we have better freshmen and sophomores than we've had in a long time. Recruiting classes are looking better. I'm not ready to see BK leave.

 

[irishog77]

No, not satisfied. I want to see ND win another championship as badly as anyone. But some perspective is needed when the possibility of a coaching change (inevitably) comes up year after year. Given: (1) the state of the program when Kelly took over; (2) Kelly's relatively high floor; and (3) the terrifying risk involved with jumping back on the coaching carousel, I think the suggestion should be a total non-starter.

I hear ya. I guess I just disagree that the suggestion should be a total non-starter. I don't think there's anything wrong with having at least some fleeting thoughts about it. Hell, even alabama and ohio state's AD's have at least considered the thought...albeit coming from a perspective of if their coach were to suddenly walk away. For one reason or another, Jack Swarbrick has done this. He should be doing this. Annually. What if Kelly bolts? What if he becomes ill? What if he leaves the reservation? Back up plans have to at least be considered. And true, I can't sit here and name a coach that would definitely do a better job than Kelly, but it doesn't mean there isn't one.

Maybe it's just that I disagree with the philosophy of keeping a guy for the sake of "it could be worse." I'll admit that I often employ an all-bases-covered and cover-your-a$$ philosophy when it comes to work and business. But sometimes, well, you gotta gamble and go for it. Success is rarely achieved by taking the safest road.

 

[Classic Irish]

Partly, yes. In the glory days, ND enjoyed a lot of advantages over the rest of CFB that have since been lost. Whenever I read someone beating his chest about getting ND "back where it belongs," they tend not to have a good grasp of how difficult it is to win in South Bend these days.

But my post above is mostly about how incredibly risky the coaching carousel is. Kelly's floor at ND has been 8-5, and that is: (1) pretty damned good considering our usual schedule; and (2) a massive improvement over his three predecessors. Murtaugh wrote a good article at OFD a while back explaining how avoiding really bad seasons is way more important than chasing great ones, because the former typically cause serious damage to a program.

If we fire Kelly--a known quantity with a very high floor--because we're unhappy with his apparent ceiling, there's a very real possibility we could end up with a Kiffin, Hoke or Zook. NDFB was at its nadir when Kelly took over, and he brought us to the title game within 3 years. He's never won fewer than 8 games, even throughout an endless stream of injuries to key players, academic suspensions, and scandals. When you fully consider the risks involved with making a change, there's really no case to be made for firing Kelly at all.

Damn, this is spot on. Great post.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Partly, yes. In the glory days, ND enjoyed a lot of advantages over the rest of CFB that have since been lost. Whenever I read someone beating his chest about getting ND "back where it belongs," they tend not to have a good grasp of how difficult it is to win in South Bend these days.

But my post above is mostly about how incredibly risky the coaching carousel is. Kelly's floor at ND has been 8-5, and that is: (1) pretty damned good considering our usual schedule; and (2) a massive improvement over his three predecessors. Murtaugh wrote a good article at OFD a while back explaining how avoiding really bad seasons is way more important than chasing great ones, because the former typically cause serious damage to a program.

If we fire Kelly--a known quantity with a very high floor--because we're unhappy with his apparent ceiling, there's a very real possibility we could end up with a Kiffin, Hoke or Zook. NDFB was at its nadir when Kelly took over, and he brought us to the title game within 3 years. He's never won fewer than 8 games, even throughout an endless stream of injuries to key players, academic suspensions, and scandals. When you fully consider the risks involved with making a change, there's really no case to be made for firing Kelly at all.

I am not in the boat of wanting Kelly gone, but at some point being 8-4 isn't what Notre dame is. I think any time you move in another direction there are risks. Nobody is immune to that. But at what point do you take that risk? I don't think the time is here but another season next year like this and there is going to be many more calling for change outside of ndnation.

 

[Irish#1]

I hear ya. I guess I just disagree that the suggestion should be a total non-starter. I don't think there's anything wrong with having at least some fleeting thoughts about it. Hell, even alabama and ohio state's AD's have at least considered the thought...albeit coming from a perspective of if their coach were to suddenly walk away. For one reason or another, Jack Swarbrick has done this. He should be doing this. Annually. What if Kelly bolts? What if he becomes ill? What if he leaves the reservation? Back up plans have to at least be considered. And true, I can't sit here and name a coach that would definitely do a better job than Kelly, but it doesn't mean there isn't one.

Maybe it's just that I disagree with the philosophy of keeping a guy for the sake of "it could be worse." I'll admit that I often employ an all-bases-covered and cover-your-a$$ philosophy when it comes to work and business. But sometimes, well, you gotta gamble and go for it. Success is rarely achieved by taking the safest road.

Look at Swarbrick's history since he's become AD. The man is a lawyer. He has long range plans and plans for every conceivable possibility. I firmly believe he has an envelope with a list of names and they aren't just a wish list.

 

[Classic Irish]

And true, I can't sit here and name a coach that would definitely do a better job than Kelly, but it doesn't mean there isn't one.

Maybe it's just that I disagree with the philosophy of keeping a guy for the sake of "it could be worse." I'll admit that I often employ an all-bases-covered and cover-your-a$$ philosophy when it comes to work and business. But sometimes, well, you gotta gamble and go for it. Success is rarely achieved by taking the safest road.

The ND Nation crowd has been going down this road since Kelly was hired and not one of those clowns can offer up a realistic alternative. Chances are if nobody can suggest a realistic alternative, there isn't one. I hang with some pretty avid CFB fans and not one can come up with a realistic replacement.

As for it could be worse: you bet it can. How could we forget the Davie, Willingham, and Weis years? I for one have no desire to return to those days just to take a gamble on someone who may prove to be a disaster. Firing someone who is a known quantity for being at least moderately successful to hire someone who may be better but could also prove to be a disaster makes absolutely no sense.

 

[NDohio]

I am not in the boat of wanting Kelly gone, but at some point being 8-4 isn't what Notre dame is. I think any time you move in another direction there are risks. Nobody is immune to that. But at what point do you take that risk? I don't think the time is here but another season next year like this and there is going to be many more calling for change outside of ndnation.

I would love to agree with this, but when was the last time UND was a consistent 8+ win football program? Since 1993 UND did not have three 8 win seasons in a row until BK arrived. Twenty years is a long time.

 

[Ndaccountant]

I would love to agree with this, but when was the last time UND was a consistent 8+ win football program? Since 1993 UND did not have three 8 win seasons in a row until BK arrived. Twenty years is a long time.

So you would be okay with being above average in exchange for being very good or even potentially great out of the fear of potentially being bad?

 

[NCDomer]

Partly, yes. In the glory days, ND enjoyed a lot of advantages over the rest of CFB that have since been lost. Whenever I read someone beating his chest about getting ND "back where it belongs," they tend not to have a good grasp of how difficult it is to win in South Bend these days.

But my post above is mostly about how incredibly risky the coaching carousel is. Kelly's floor at ND has been 8-5, and that is: (1) pretty damned good considering our usual schedule; and (2) a massive improvement over his three predecessors. Murtaugh wrote a good article at OFD a while back explaining how avoiding really bad seasons is way more important than chasing great ones, because the former typically cause serious damage to a program.

If we fire Kelly--a known quantity with a very high floor--because we're unhappy with his apparent ceiling, there's a very real possibility we could end up with a Kiffin, Hoke or Zook. NDFB was at its nadir when Kelly took over, and he brought us to the title game within 3 years. He's never won fewer than 8 games, even throughout an endless stream of injuries to key players, academic suspensions, and scandals. When you fully consider the risks involved with making a change, there's really no case to be made for firing Kelly at all.

This nails it. A common coach people clamor for is Bob Stoops. His floor is 8 wins. He also started his tenure at OU with pretty good players because the one thing his predecessor, Blake, did well during his 3 years was recruit. Sure, Weis recruited well, but only in certain spots and left a lot of holes in those spots, notably along the lines. ND has had some QB issues every year too, which even good coaches can't overcome. Again, look at Stoops. When he has a consistent and good QB, they're in the national title picture. When they're just consistent or good and inconsistent, then they're a borderline ranked team.

 

[IrishLax]

I'd probably trade Kelly for Gary Andersen right now and start fresh. Unless Wisconsin gives him a huge raise it'd be an easy hire to make happen too.

 

[koonja]

I'd probably trade Kelly for Gary Andersen right now and start fresh. Unless Wisconsin gives him a huge raise it'd be an easy hire to make happen too.

I was thinking about Gary Anderson as well. I think he's only in his second year at Wisconsin, so I'd like to see more, but Wisconsin gets squat for recruits and always plays tough.

I wouldn't trade him for Kelly, but I'd be happy if he came here if Kelly left.

 

[koonja]

I wish Herm Edwards was 10 years younger. I love that man and you'd never hear another excuse at ND if he was at the helm. Also think recruits would love him.

 

[Rocket89]

I'd probably trade Kelly for Gary Andersen right now and start fresh. Unless Wisconsin gives him a huge raise it'd be an easy hire to make happen too.

Man, you gotta be easily impressed.

Andersen is someone to keep an eye on but he's still a major question mark right now. He's only in his 5th year as a head coach and has 1 win ever against a Power 5 team not from the Big Ten (Utah, 2012) with his win this past weekend over Nebraska probably being the best of his career.

He's also sneaky old (he'll be 51 in February) which isn't great considering he got into head coaching pretty late in his career.

 

[Classic Irish]

I'd probably trade Kelly for Gary Andersen right now and start fresh. Unless Wisconsin gives him a huge raise it'd be an easy hire to make happen too.

You do know that Northwestern beat Wisconsin a few weeks ago, right?

 

[Bluto]

I was thinking about Gary Anderson as well. I think he's only in his second year at Wisconsin, so I'd like to see more, but Wisconsin gets squat for recruits and always plays tough.

I wouldn't trade him for Kelly, but I'd be happy if he came here if Kelly left.

Didn't they lose to Northwestern too?