Weekly Upset Alert (Who we need to lose this week)

[RDU Irish]

We will see if Miss State has a run defense this week. I am really hoping Arkansas can pull one upset this year and this one would be ideal. State's schedule is as favorable as anyone to finish the year with Tenn Martin next week to warm up for Bama the following week. Then they have Vandy before finishing at Ole Miss.

Razorbacks had UAB last week and a bye week next week. Hopefully they come to play. LSU and Ole Miss are mid November and I have a hard time seeing them lose ALL of the next three games.

 

[IRISH in MT]

How is TCU's defense good? They gave up 60+ points to Baylor, 33 to Oklahoma, and 27 Texas Tech in a game they still scored 80+. TCU's defense is not elite by any means. The Big12 does not know what defense means this year.

Great point. However, in the past, TCU and Patterson were known for defense. Since the Big 12 is defenseless, TCU is still considered one of the better ones even if that isn't saying much. Even just a little defense in the Big 12 might determine the Champion.

 

[ACamp1900]

How is TCU's defense good? They gave up 60+ points to Baylor, 33 to Oklahoma, and 27 Texas Tech in a game they still scored 80+. TCU's defense is not elite by any means. The Big12 does not know what defense means this year.

It's THE conference of high powered offense... that's just what they do out there... what i saw on Saturday night was two terrible offenses (Ole Miss/LSU) but everyone talks like it was just great D... how about when other conferences light each other up we actually credit amazing offenses???

 

[RDU Irish]

Ole Miss might end up outside the Top 25. I was almost as unimpressed with them as I was with LSU's QB play. Easy for me to imagine a world where Ole Miss loses to Auburn, Arkansas and Miss State to finish the year 1-3. A dominating win over Presbyterian might be enough to keep them in the top 25.

 

[RDU Irish]

My money is on the Iron Bowl determining the SEC West winner. Miss State probably has to go 1-2 against Bama, Miss St and Arkansas for it to happen though.

 

[koonja]

The nightmare scenario is both Bama and MSU win out, and Bama beats MSU when they play each other.

That leaves MSU at 11-1, and not in the SEC champ game, while Bama goes into it and wins. Pretty much a lock that both would make the playoffs, so we need both to lose one before their game against each other.

 

[irishfan]

The nightmare scenario is both Bama and MSU win out, and Bama beats MSU when they play each other.

That leaves MSU at 11-1, and not in the SEC champ game, while Bama goes into it and wins. Pretty much a lock that both would make the playoffs, so we need both to lose one before their game against each other.

Yep. Two 1-loss SEC teams + 13-0 FSU + 12-1 Oregon = Bad News for 11-1 ND

 

[ACamp1900]

My money is on the Iron Bowl determining the SEC West winner. Miss State probably has to go 1-2 against Bama, Miss St and Arkansas for it to happen though.

It's going to be crazy watching Miss St play themselves tho...

 

[ickythump1225]

It's going to be crazy watching Miss St play themselves tho...

They match up pretty well too.

 

[IRISH in MT]

My money is on the Iron Bowl determining the SEC West winner. Miss State probably has to go 1-2 against Bama, Miss St and Arkansas for it to happen though.

I am with you. The 2 Miss schools look good right now but in the end it will be Auburn or Bama.

 

[ND NYC]

the key things for me, (assuming we we win out):

need FSU to keep winning in fact we need ALL teams we have played to keep winning

we need Oregon to lose

the "one loss" pOSU and Mich St scenario has me worried...

 

[ACamp1900]

I'll be pretty damn stunned if there is only one spot left and it comes down to ND vs tOSU/MSU (assuming both have only 1 loss) and ND doesn't win that battle...

 

[Irish Insanity]

I'll be pretty damn stunned if there is only one spot left and it comes down to ND vs tOSU/MSU (assuming both have only 1 loss) and ND doesn't win that battle...

Our 1 loss (Win if you ask me) is a lot better than either of their losses.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I'll be pretty damn stunned if there is only one spot left and it comes down to ND vs tOSU/MSU (assuming both have only 1 loss) and ND doesn't win that battle...

Same. The B1G is hot trash this year. Their SoS is going to end up much weaker than ours.

 

[ND NYC]

i hear you guys but i fear oregon keeps winning and that Mich St runs table while winning B!G Champ game....this gives committe the sec champ, acc champ, pac 12 champ and b1g champ in the final four.

and nd and big 12 fans clamoring for a recount...we cant delude ourselves into thinking this cant happen. for some reason theres been this love fest with mich st last couple years. bizarre.

 

[Irish Insanity]

ND >>>>>> B1G champ. I hope they can see that.

 

[koonja]

Posting here as well as playoff thread. Here's what we're up against:

Ole Miss
vs. Auburn
@ Arkansas
vs. MSU

Auburn
@Ole Miss
vs. Texas AM
vs. Georgia
@Bama

Oregon
vs. Stanford
@Utah
@ Oregon St.

Mississippi St.
vs. Arkansas
@Bama
@ Ole Miss

Alabama
@LSU
vs. Mississippi St.
vs. Auburn

Georgia
vs. Florida
vs. Auburn

TCU
@WVU
vs. KSU
A Texas

KSU
@TCU
@WVU
@Baylor

MSU
@OSU

 

[FLDomer]

Posting here as well as playoff thread. Here's what we're up against:

Ole Miss
vs. Auburn
@ Arkansas
vs. MSU

Auburn
@Ole Miss
vs. Texas AM
vs. Georgia
@Bama

Oregon
vs. Stanford
@Utah
@ Oregon St.

Mississippi St.
vs. Arkansas
@Bama
@ Ole Miss

Alabama
@LSU
vs. Mississippi St.
vs. Auburn

Georgia
vs. Florida
vs. Auburn

TCU
@WVU
vs. KSU
A Texas

KSU
@TCU
@WVU
@Baylor

MSU
@OSU

You forgot FSU!

FSU
@ Louisville
vs. Nobody
@ Nobody
vs Nobody
vs. Nobody
ACC Champ against Nobody

 

[RDU Irish]

I have a friend in Vegas this week that I am trying to get in touch for a few combo bets.

Auburn +2.5
Arkansas +10
Stanford +10
Over 50pts FSU/Lville
UNC +17 vs Miami
ND -14 vs Navy

Then a moneyline
Auburn, Stanford, UNC, Arkansas

Betting folks, what type of odds do you think those bets would get? Seems like the 4 way underdog moneyline should get bigger than the six way even money bets.

 

[IRISH in MT]

Getting screwed at #10 means we have 6 spots to climb. I will be praying for upsets even more each week now. I will update the thread page every Monday morning.

 

[Wingman Ray]

We need Ole Piss to beat Auburn. A two loss Auburn takes them out of the game. Ole Piss should lose to Miss St last game of the season. I personally think Auburn takes out Bama last game of the season. With that, it effectively removes 3 of the teams ahead of us.

I dont see Mich St losing to OSU. Unfortunately, I dont think anything will stop MSU from getting a seed unfortunately due to the wimpified B10 conference. Beat OSU and they have what, the mighty Nebraska to beat up on in the conf championship? No brainer there.

FSU gets a spot unless they completely choke vs Louisville. No one else will give them a remote game here on out.

Oregons last chance to lose is vs Stanford. Win that and they have a spot.

Kansas ST plays TCU. I cannot see Kansas ST beating TCU. Problem is, I dont see anyone else on TCU's schedule giving them a game until the conf championship.

Unfortunately, unless the powers that be reshuffle the rankings due to NDs upcoming SOS, I dont see how we have a spot at the dance even if we win out. They just have us too far down the ladder.

 

[IRISH in MT]

We need Ole Piss to beat Auburn. A two loss Auburn takes them out of the game. Ole Piss should lose to Miss St last game of the season. I personally think Auburn takes out Bama last game of the season. With that, it effectively removes 3 of the teams ahead of us.

I dont see Mich St losing to OSU. Unfortunately, I dont think anything will stop MSU from getting a seed unfortunately due to the wimpified B10 conference. Beat OSU and they have what, the mighty Nebraska to beat up on in the conf championship? No brainer there.

FSU gets a spot unless they completely choke vs Louisville. No one else will give them a remote game here on out.

Oregons last chance to lose is vs Stanford. Win that and they have a spot.

Kansas ST plays TCU. I cannot see Kansas ST beating TCU. Problem is, I dont see anyone else on TCU's schedule giving them a game until the conf championship.

Unfortunately, unless the powers that be reshuffle the rankings due to NDs upcoming SOS, I dont see how we have a spot at the dance even if we win out. They just have us too far down the ladder.

What if Nebraska beats Ohio St or MSU in the B1G Chipper? Just because ND doens't have a Conf. Championship does that mean Nebraska gets in?

 

[Crazy Balki]

The nightmare scenario is both Bama and MSU win out, and Bama beats MSU when they play each other.

That leaves MSU at 11-1, and not in the SEC champ game, while Bama goes into it and wins. Pretty much a lock that both would make the playoffs, so we need both to lose one before their game against each other.

Depends on how they lose. If it's within single digits, then sure, but if Bama crushes Miss State, then I don't see them staying ahead of ND.

 

[Crazy Balki]

We need Ole Piss to beat Auburn. A two loss Auburn takes them out of the game. Ole Piss should lose to Miss St last game of the season. I personally think Auburn takes out Bama last game of the season. With that, it effectively removes 3 of the teams ahead of us.

I dont see Mich St losing to OSU. Unfortunately, I dont think anything will stop MSU from getting a seed unfortunately due to the wimpified B10 conference. Beat OSU and they have what, the mighty Nebraska to beat up on in the conf championship? No brainer there.

FSU gets a spot unless they completely choke vs Louisville. No one else will give them a remote game here on out.

Oregons last chance to lose is vs Stanford. Win that and they have a spot.

Kansas ST plays TCU. I cannot see Kansas ST beating TCU. Problem is, I dont see anyone else on TCU's schedule giving them a game until the conf championship.

Unfortunately, unless the powers that be reshuffle the rankings due to NDs upcoming SOS, I dont see how we have a spot at the dance even if we win out. They just have us too far down the ladder.

Best case would be Miss State winning out. That would eliminate Bama and Ole Miss permanently, and it would just need an Auburn loss to move ND in.

Oregon still has either Arizona (who they lost to at home) or Arizona State in the Pac-12 Title game.

Big 12 doesn't have a conference championship. I can see both TCU and K-State losing at least once more, but if ND wins out, I'd say their resume trumps both of there's.

The thing is, I think the rankings are determined by best win so far, which would change if they lose and if ND ends up beating ASU, who's 6-1 right now. USC needs to win out however, but they do have a win over Arizona (team Oregon lost to) and Stanford on the road.

Honestly, don't see Oregon finishing 12-1. I see them slipping up against a very good ASU team. The main focus needs to be beating them on the road, because they'll be extremely tough.

 

[scUM Hater]

Best case is ND wins out. Arizona State wins the pac 12 championship game. Big 12 teams beat each other for 2 loses each.

 

[Crazy Balki]

Best case is ND wins out. Arizona State wins the pac 12 championship game. Big 12 teams beat each other for 2 loses each.

If ASU wins the Pac-12 title, then ND gets in over a 1-loss Big-12 team regardless. The committee would have a very hard time arguing MSU over ND, as the Irish would have beaten the team that beat Oregon (who they got torched by). Even with 2 SEC teams, ND would find a way in in that scenario.

 

[Wild Bill]

Best case would be Miss State winning out. That would eliminate Bama and Ole Miss permanently, and it would just need an Auburn loss to move ND in.

Oregon still has either Arizona (who they lost to at home) or Arizona State in the Pac-12 Title game.

Big 12 doesn't have a conference championship. I can see both TCU and K-State losing at least once more, but if ND wins out, I'd say their resume trumps both of there's.

The thing is, I think the rankings are determined by best win so far, which would change if they lose and if ND ends up beating ASU, who's 6-1 right now. USC needs to win out however, but they do have a win over Arizona (team Oregon lost to) and Stanford on the road.

Honestly, don't see Oregon finishing 12-1. I see them slipping up against a very good ASU team. The main focus needs to be beating them on the road, because they'll be extremely tough.

I think ASU is a good team but they'll give up some points. That'll be a problem against the ducks. Stanford may be our best shot at someone knocking them off.

 

[BillyIrish]

I really want Miss State to win out. Have a clear cut #1 out of the SEC. They would hand Bama, Ole Miss, and Georgia a second loss along the way. As for the Shartans (thank you GB), for the first time in my life I will be hoping the bucks win. GTFO Sparty!

 

[nsisk157]

If ASU wins the Pac-12 title, then ND gets in over a 1-loss Big-12 team regardless. The committee would have a very hard time arguing MSU over ND, as the Irish would have beaten the team that beat Oregon (who they got torched by). Even with 2 SEC teams, ND would find a way in in that scenario.

Oregon lost to Arizona, love.

 

[RuntheBall]

Oregon lost to Arizona, love.

I think he is assuming ASU will have to beat Oregon in the PC-12 championship game