[NCAAF] vBook: Notre Dame at Michigan

gkIrish

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Kanye West said:
Could it be a trap bet?
Click to expand...

That's the idea. Sometimes Vegas feels very strongly about an outcome or has some inside information and moves the line towards one team when you would expect the line to be tighter. And we all know how scarily accurate Vegas can be.
 
Kanye West

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gkIrish said:
That's the idea. Sometimes Vegas feels very strongly about an outcome or has some inside information and moves the line towards one team when you would expect the line to be tighter. And we all know how scarily accurate Vegas can be.
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But if they know info and know ND should win and they move the line towards Michigan to make it a safer bet so more people bet on um and lose. Do they ever do that?
 
Irish Insanity

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So for me, uneducated in betting even with my vBucks, what does them moving the like to +6 bait mean?
 
gkIrish

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Kanye West said:
But if they know info and know ND should win and they move the line towards Michigan to make it a safer bet so more people bet on um and lose. Do they ever do that?
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I'm a little confused by your question but if they felt strongly that ND would win and ignored what people bet on they would move the line towards Michigan. In other words, the line might be -1 Michigan or even +1 Michigan.

In this case, it seems as though Vegas feels strongly that UM will win and they keep shifting the line towards ND to entice bettors to put money on ND
 
gkIrish

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Irish Insanity said:
So for me, uneducated in betting even with my vBucks, what does them moving the like to +6 bait mean?
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It either means that

1. There are a lot of people betting on Michigan or

2. Vegas "knows" something that the public doesn't or they just feel really strongly that Michigan will win regardless of what people are actually betting

The second scenario is why Lax brought this up and if you believe that games can be fixed, this situation is kind of disconcerting.
 
Ndaccountant

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I think the general public has no respect for ND and people think Gardner is a Heisman QB waiting to happen. Couple that with last week games and UM being at home, it makes sense tome.
 
ACamp1900

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Think of the public perception of ND since Jan..... Look at ESPNs poll this morning, it was 70ish percent UMl... American in general thinks ND is a total fraud... They're betting heavy on UM
 
woolybug25

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Moving 3 pts on gameday is not nearly uncommon as you guys are making it sounds. 3pts is easily done by public perception and the home team is given 3 from the gate.
 
Irish Insanity

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I'm sure CMU winning and Temple loosing furthered the perception of how good/bad we and they are.
 
IrishLax

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gkIrish said:
It either means that

1. There are a lot of people betting on Michigan or

2. Vegas "knows" something that the public doesn't or they just feel really strongly that Michigan will win regardless of what people are actually betting

The second scenario is why Lax brought this up and if you believe that games can be fixed, this situation is kind of disconcerting.
Click to expand...

Yeah, and games can/are fixed. Regularly. It's incredibly common internationally but also pretty prevalent here in the USA. Usually, it's the smaller games though and not the marquis matchups for a couple of reasons but I'll save that for another day.

I just talked to a guy who is a professional gambler. He doesn't do it by having "ins" or being a "shark" or using the tactics your typical syndicate uses... rather, he wrote computer programs to play lines off each other online when one book is giving starkly different odds than another book or there are other inefficiencies in the system.

Anywho... he says that the problem is that the public money came in really hard on Michigan. First at -3 in a landslide, then -3.5... and it didn't flip back hard at -4.5. He said there is like 65%-70% public money on Michigan and that's likely why the line just jumped to -6 for some books is that they're trying to even up their money so they don't take a bath if Michigan wins. He said, as far as he is aware, the "shark" money is actually leaning on ND.

So on the surface... doesn't seem like there is anything to be worried about. Still, I'd keep an eye on the refs... just in case.
 
Cali_domer

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IrishLax said:
Yeah, and games can/are fixed. Regularly. It's incredibly common internationally but also pretty prevalent here in the USA. Usually, it's the smaller games though and not the marquis matchups for a couple of reasons but I'll save that for another day.

I just talked to a guy who is a professional gambler. He doesn't do it by having "ins" or being a "shark" or using the tactics your typical syndicate uses... rather, he wrote computer programs to play lines off each other online when one book is giving starkly different odds than another book or there are other inefficiencies in the system.

Anywho... he says that the problem is that the public money came in really hard on Michigan. First at -3 in a landslide, then -3.5... and it didn't flip back hard at -4.5. He said there is like 65%-70% public money on Michigan and that's likely why the line just jumped to -6 for some books is that they're trying to even up their money so they don't take a bath if Michigan wins. He said, as far as he is aware, the "shark" money is actually leaning on ND.

So on the surface... doesn't seem like there is anything to be worried about. Still, I'd keep an eye on the refs... just in case.
Click to expand...
Are the refs ACC this year?
 
gkIrish

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IrishLax said:
Yeah, and games can/are fixed. Regularly. It's incredibly common internationally but also pretty prevalent here in the USA. Usually, it's the smaller games though and not the marquis matchups for a couple of reasons but I'll save that for another day.

I just talked to a guy who is a professional gambler. He doesn't do it by having "ins" or being a "shark" or using the tactics your typical syndicate uses... rather, he wrote computer programs to play lines off each other online when one book is giving starkly different odds than another book or there are other inefficiencies in the system.

Anywho... he says that the problem is that the public money came in really hard on Michigan. First at -3 in a landslide, then -3.5... and it didn't flip back hard at -4.5. He said there is like 65%-70% public money on Michigan and that's likely why the line just jumped to -6 for some books is that they're trying to even up their money so they don't take a bath if Michigan wins. He said, as far as he is aware, the "shark" money is actually leaning on ND.

So on the surface... doesn't seem like there is anything to be worried about. Still, I'd keep an eye on the refs... just in case.
Click to expand...

Awesome thanks for the info. Personally, before you posted this I bet hard on +5.5 so this makes me feel even better.
 
peoriairish

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IrishLax said:
Yeah, and games can/are fixed. Regularly. It's incredibly common internationally but also pretty prevalent here in the USA. Usually, it's the smaller games though and not the marquis matchups for a couple of reasons but I'll save that for another day.

I just talked to a guy who is a professional gambler. He doesn't do it by having "ins" or being a "shark" or using the tactics your typical syndicate uses... rather, he wrote computer programs to play lines off each other online when one book is giving starkly different odds than another book or there are other inefficiencies in the system.

Anywho... he says that the problem is that the public money came in really hard on Michigan. First at -3 in a landslide, then -3.5... and it didn't flip back hard at -4.5. He said there is like 65%-70% public money on Michigan and that's likely why the line just jumped to -6 for some books is that they're trying to even up their money so they don't take a bath if Michigan wins. He said, as far as he is aware, the "shark" money is actually leaning on ND.

So on the surface... doesn't seem like there is anything to be worried about. Still, I'd keep an eye on the refs... just in case.
Click to expand...

That's really all I was thinking it was. I mean, on GameDay this morning, something like 78% of the country was taking UM for this game. I think it's just the desert city hedging their bets.
 
IrishLax

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Irish Insanity said:
I'm sure CMU winning and Temple loosing furthered the perception of how good/bad we and they are.
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CMU struggled with New Hampshire? And Temple got killed statistically but was driving for the win against a not-so-bad Houston? I doubt that had any impact whatsoever.
 
Rhode Irish

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For the win:

Code: 
Bet placed by	 Amount staked	 Odds	 Amount won
ShakeDown	10000000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
Rhode Irish	2500000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
BobD	        1000000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
D-BOE34	        1000000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
BGIF	        1000000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
Junkhead        1000000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
Corry	        606000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
DomerInHappyValley500006113	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
Kak7304	        500000003	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
SoCal_NDfan	500000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
FearTheBeard	200000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
NDTampa	        100000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
gkIrish	        100000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
Rack Em	        100000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
weezy	        90000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
A Pac	        50000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
Whiskeyjack	50000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
A Pac	        45000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
Redbar	        25000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
NDBoiler	20000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-

Yeah, fam.
 
Last edited:
gkIrish

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Rhode Irish said:
For the win:

Code: 
Bet placed by	 Amount staked	 Odds	 Amount won
ShakeDown	10000000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
Rhode Irish	2500000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
BobD	        1000000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
D-BOE34	        1000000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
BGIF	        1000000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
Junkhead        1000000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
Corry	        606000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
DomerInHappyValley500006113	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
Kak7304	        500000003	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
SoCal_NDfan	500000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
FearTheBeard	200000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
NDTampa	        100000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
gkIrish	        100000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
Rack Em	        100000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
weezy	        90000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
A Pac	        50000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
Whiskeyjack	50000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
A Pac	        45000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
Redbar	        25000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-
NDBoiler	20000000	        145/100	 (1.45)	-

Yeah, fam.
Click to expand...

I also bet UM would cover lol. Said earlier this week that we would either win close or lose by 10+
 
Mr. McGibblets

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Unfortunately, bets settled. I know the over hit. Dude, I hate Bitch *** mich
 
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